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Post-Election Stress Syndrome
There is one thing that is certain come Wednesday morning; there will be just as many losers as winners and as ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, while the main-event remains too close to call, the psychology of 'losing' will become a critical part of the domestic political process from November 7th onwards. We suggest the Post-Election Stress Syndrome (PESS) will follow the Kubler-Ross model - which means initially 'Denial' and 'Anger' will dominate people's deeds and words. None of this is good news for an efficient resolution to the political Gordian Knot know as the 'fiscal cliff' or to the stability of capital markets going into year-end as politicians and plebeians alike will be PESS'd off.
Via Nick Colas of ConvergEx: I'm A Loser Baby, So Why Don;t You Kill Me
If there is one certainty about the Presidential election tomorrow, it is that it will be a close contest. Only the most partisan of observers seem to feel differently. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course. It is just that the numbers point to a long Tuesday night. A few points here:
- The Real Clear Politics average of national polls is split virtually down the middle, at 47.5% for President Obama and 47.3% for Governor Romney. The state-by-state map shows 201 “Safe” Electoral College votes for the President, and 191 for Romney.
- Intrade, the gambling/prediction website, currently places the odds of President Obama’s reelection at 65%. That might sound promising for those who favor this outcome, but it is a far cry from a lock. As an aside, some $30 million is on the line at Intrade over just the Presidential race.
- In the important battleground states, the story is much the same. Ohio polling places the President with a 2.8 percentage point advantage, but the Intrade odds are just 66% in favor of Obama winning the state. Virginia and Colorado and straight-up coin flips on Intrade – 50/50, within a point or two – and the state polling in both is within a statistical dead heat.
- Two closely watched political pundits – the Republican Party’s Karl Rove and The New York Times Nate Silver, who both essentially nailed the 50-state predictions in 2008 – are on opposite sides of the trade this time around. Rove, in a piece for The Wall Street Journal last week, called for a Romney victory. Silver sees an +80% chance of President Obama keeping his job for four more years.
The bottom line is that both sides feel they have a real chance, and that means one Party will take a hard loss out of this contest. A loss for the Democrats means that they will be very much an opposition party, with (likely) only the Senate to call their own. As for the Republicans, the mere fact that this election is as close as it is must be a disappointment. The U.S. economy is still operating distinctly below its potential and unemployment is right on the historical cusp of assuring any challenging party a solid victory. A loss on Tuesday for either party - and one will certainly draw the short straw – is going to go down very poorly indeed among the faithful and their representatives in government.
That’s a problem for the country, because there is a lot of heavy lifting to be done in the coming months with respect to the package of tax increases and spending cuts known as the Fiscal Cliff. Numerous studies of the impact here total 2-4 points of growth in Gross Domestic Product should the entire “Cliff” come into law. Since that measure of economic growth is only currently running 2% or so, failing to address the “Cliff” all but assures a recession in early 2013. The threads of the debate about this problem very much resemble the ancient story of the Gordian Knot, a tale from antiquity that promised great things to anyone who could untie an especially large and complex mass of rope. Alexander the Great, passing through the Knot’s hometown in what is now Turkey, tried his luck and untangling it. When he failed at the attempt, he simply took out his sword and cut through the knot, fulfilling the challenge with what management consultants would now call “Out of the box” thinking.
So will the losing party in Tuesday’s election feel like being part of a decisive action on the Fiscal Cliff? Observations from the world of psychology offer some warning signs on this question. A few points to expand on this:
- The most often quoted psychological paradigm for how humans cope with loss applies to everything from the death of a parent or spouse to a nasty romantic breakup. It was first described by Swiss-American psychiatrist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross in her book On Death and Dying, published in 1969.
If you assume that the loss of an election has the same emotional impact on a political party that grieving has on an individual, the Kubler-Ross model lays out the path ahead for either Democrats or Republicans. The good news is that “Acceptance” is the final step – the person (or party) that suffers a loss almost always learns to cope with it over time. The bad news is that there are four antecedent emotions, which are denial, anger, bargaining, and depression – in that order. There is no set time frame associated with the Kubler-Ross model. Every individual is different, as is every loss.
The first two steps – denial and anger – seem especially ill suited for a quick political compromise on the Fiscal Cliff. They also seem to follow naturally from such a close campaign. The best outcome, ironically, is for a blowout result favoring either side. The losing party would feel the sting, of course, but it could hardly argue that they had enough popular support to oppose the winner’s proposals for resolving the “Cliff.” The polling data argues against it, as I noted above, but polls have been wrong before so this outcome still has a chance.
- From the world of sports psychology, specifically Mixed Martial Arts (MMA, for short), comes this trenchant bit of wisdom: “It’s all about the money.” Two university professors (Drs. Butryn and Masucci, of San Jose State) have put in +5 years in studying MMA fighters and what motivates them. As it turns out, they are more aware of the economics of their sport than athletes in other disciplines. A November 2012 article in Fight! Magazine about the pair’s findings quoted Dr, Butryn saying. “Sports psychology 101 is about process, not outcome.” But since money is inextricably tied to wins and losses, many fighters have trouble staying on the right psychological path to success.
Elections are inherently about outcomes, but whichever party loses will likely come to the conclusion that they didn’t spend enough money to win. That might sound amazing, given that both sides are reported to be laying out $1 billion each to assure victory. Whether the losing side also thinks about process – the ideas and positions that motivate voters – remains to be seen. Like a battered and bruised (and losing) MMA fighter, they will probably worry about the money first.
- A loss in a sporting contest doesn’t just sting the losing players – it lowers the testosterone levels of male fans that back the unhappy team. In studies going back to the 1990s, researchers have found that witnessing a loss of your favorite team doesn’t just mentally upset fans that happen to be men; it also lowers the production of endocrine hormones such as testosterone. How this relates to political races, I am not brave enough to predict.
We have, in summary, a worrying confluence of psychological pressures shaping up around the election on Tuesday. No matter how close the contest, there will be a winner. They will garner all the customary attention, and their backers will be rightly happy with the outcome. But it may be the losers that capital markets will have to watch more carefully in the coming months. That Gordian Knot isn’t going to cut itself.
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If Obama doesn't win he, or someone just like him will win next time.
you mean she'll
"or someone just like him"
Most ZH readers, who understand the world enough to realize most of us can't really have a dog in this fight since both these guys will fuck us in various ways, have far more important things to worry about, like what should be the ZH Drink Words in the concession/victory speeches.
As Redpill says, this election isn't about getting somebody who will do anything good for the American people. It is about who will be the next piggie at the trough.
http://howstupidare.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-stupid-are-people-who-waste-their.html
Recognizing this there is no reason for the election to induce any more stress than any other day in your life. Do something good and don't worry.
By 2016 the electorate may still be sharply divided but the difference between the Democrat and Repuiblican parties (on the national level at least) will be limited to their MSM-assigned color codes.
Divide an conquer. It's pretty simple, really.
And extremely effective.
The goal of slanted cable news is to go from "people watch us based on how they vote" to "how people vote is based on watching us"
Exactly. Same thing happened with MTV. Initially, it might have been somewhat consumer driven... once the market was monopolized, it began dictating what music was successful...
The empire has grown very efficient at it.
All good things suffer diminishing returns...
Your on to something krid...
.
Every major front we - the masses - are being attacked on by the global elite is to break down everything solid and 'good' in life...
Break down families...
Break down genders...
Break down nations...
etc...
Divide and conquer indeed.
No, it’s simply: go where the votes are.
Demographics alone have permanently tipped the scales toward those who want a lot more government in their lives (or think they do). As a politician/party you either tip that way too to “stay relevant” or you die. There remain only two or three amendments in the Bill of Rights with enough teeth left to prevent the government from controlling everything, everywhere, all the time but we’re almost there.
And guess who wants a different Bill of Rights?
Don't be fooled into thinking that one party is in favor of the bill of rights and the other is not. "Support of the constitution" is just another tool meant to divide. R's have as much disdain of the document as the D's; the Rs pretend to care because it helps to keep the numbers fairly equal. "R's care about freedom, D's care about people"... And the sheeple line up behind the letter.
I get what you're saying, but to claim that repubs have as much disdain for the constitution as the demos is not based whatsoever in reality. At least the repubs have a small glimmer of respect for the constitution and our nations history and ideals - the demos routinely use the constitution for toilet paper, tampons, or kindling, depending solely on their own whims in the moment. It is a question of magnitude, and the demos are so far gone they are beyond reason or help.
WOW.
The patriot act wasn't unconstitutional because it was about america and patriotism! USA USA USA
That's the narrative provided to you in order to keep you locked up in one of the two camps, which is really just one big camp. You are in the system. Statistically, you can be counted on.
Interesting link.
So, Obama has done a great job moving wealth up the scale through redistributive framewoks bennefiting the financial industry, but if he had his way, he would be redistributing it down?
Fascinating.
Perhaps to BO, redistribution is a scalar goal, not a vector goal.
If we have to pay them, can't we just pay them to go away?
We should be able to deduct pay, for every law passed.
Mercury
yep. everybody gets a bone thrown to them.
Didn't you see Jim Cramer's call? Obama will win in landslide of 400+ electoral votes vs. 98 Romney.
that was Cramer's quid pro for his rant against Obama in 2009
"Obama's agenda is destroying the life savings of millions of Americans"
"we elected a Leninist"
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1050324064&
As we see in Europe, people who leave the USA have Post-America Stress Sydrome
I'll be experiencing a post-election hangover...because it's going to take an extraordinary amount of alcohol to get me to Wednesday...
Zip down to the gun store and purchase a couple boxes of ammo. That should cure what ever ails ya, or comes at ya.
Got plenty of that on hand. I'm more concerned that I'm out of Tullamore Dew and beer...
There's an idea! I inherited a 30.06 a couple of months back, and that's not one of my common rounds, so I need to start a new stockpile.
My guy never wins, and he won't this time. I voted for Ron Paul.
So I'm just going to accept whoever wins and think happy thoughts. Who knows, there is still a .00000001 chance that the collapse can be averted, maybe oromba can pull it off this time!
Sandy has been a good test run in implementing emotional indifference. Obama wins, and it's emotional indifference 100%. Romney wins, I might be forced to care about other people's misery when the collapse comes. That's all the election means to me - it only changes my outlook towards the country and if it has the small chance of being saved.
Doubleguns
I agree, be sure to hold a cup of water in your mouth when taking the leaqd cure.
I hear it makes the head explode and one doesn't have to worry about a through that allows one to live.
i asked google
"if you were full-o-shit-or-not?"
and found a thread in the Mythbuster's forum:
i guess we'll have to wait for Mythbusters to test this...
My prediction is Mitt will win the popular vote and Obama will win the electoral. We will have a divided nation with another president who is seen as illegitimet. This time the reds will lose confidence in the process like the blues did in 2000. TPTB will have succeeded in making sure the whole nation has no faith in the U.S institutions.
And of course it will take a month to get the recount and challenges resolved. All entirely bullish. The rating agencies will be thrilled.
Assuming sarcasm, I agree. That particular scenario will be hell on 'fiscal cliff' and likely lead to another downgrade, leading to more calls to 'please, won't someone please think of the children!'
Worst possible outcome.
Best possible outcome: Mittens will win a close upset and the right-plebs will be soothed. TPTB want the plebs under control, not burning shit down.
I guess I see it as TPTB want us taking each other out. It saves them the trouble and keeps the finger of blame away from them. It also helps knock down the country down so we fit into the new world order. Besides us breaking stuff provides for a lot of broken windows...very Keynesian.
After it's over, the results will show what TPTB really wanted 'cuz I think it's highly unlikely that they won't get what they want. It's hard for us to really know - wars in heaven and all.
I think that's right. Both guys are their guy, but one guy can advance the ball better than the other. I have a friend who votes R based solely on 2nd amendment. I told him if gun rights are ever taken away, it will be by a republican president. Obama can't take away gun rights, it would be war... It would have to be passed by an R after some sort of horrific event. Unless, of course, war is what the want.
And the Ds can bomb the shit out of anybody in the world with impunity. The psychology is brilliant. Edward Bernays is chuckling from his grave.
Hidden, in plain sight. It's remarkable to watch... My peacenik liberal friends with Obama stickers on their Prius. Sometimes it seems funny, sometimes I want to vomit on them.
I hear you. I have to to a lot of tongue biting when I point it out to them. Most of them act like it never happens, or ëven try to deny it's hppening. It's really mind boggling.
ëven
is that a German word?
Huge irony here if this happens, b/c Mitt's boy John Sununu argues for the electoral college:
Even better than the popular voteUnless of course HIS guys loses. Then it will be an argument.
The fact that both sides seem equally confident provides me with ample evidence that the losing side will claim that the election was stolen. Politics is the ultimate diversion... They might just as well get all of the mileage that they can. If I had to hazard a guess... All of the "statistical certainty" over an Obama win is the setup for the Romney win, complete with post election fireworks.
I want to see a red team win so I can watch some heads 'asplode' at MSDNC. Should also be interesting to see what Rachel Madcow will do when her testosterone level drops.
Maybe she won't have to shave as often.
Would be for the best, then; I do sometimes have difficulty distinguishing Rachel from Geraldo.
She is the one who uses mustache remover.
tax units loose middle class americans become the new poor. no NWO goon will change THAT.
"A loss in a sporting contest doesn’t just sting the losing players – it lowers the testosterone levels of male fans that back the unhappy team."
Thank God my team had a "bye" this week and didn't lose play. Mrs Cog is at the end of her rope and has had just about enough of my low testosterone levels. :)
Well then, just give'er a good tongue-lashing! :>D
Moving through the grief process involves choice, i.e., some will CHOOSE to stay pissed off indefinitely.
Escaping this loop requires acknowledging
NEITHER OBAMA OR ROMNEY IS IN CHARGE.
Kinda like watching a football game.
It doesn't matter who won, it's just another game.
Who's the commanding officer here?
Ain't you?
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AeDq_tCCj3o
it doesn't matter what team won, cause the NFL won.
THE REDSKINS RULE IS OFFICIAL - PRESIDENT ELECT ROMNEY ON WEDNESDAY.
The numbers on this rule are very good almost like the OCTOPUS for the World Cup!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/9654931/Listen-up-...
Oh FFS thanks for wasting 5 minutes of my time on that drivel.
If Obama wins, his suppoters will rejoice in expectation of even more handouts and the further expansion of the USSA.
If Romney wins, Obama supporters will riot in the streets.
If Obama wins, millions more guns will be bought and most likely, the United States will no longer exist in 4 years. Either the liberty movement types will be rounded up and killed by the DHS, or they will be successful in getting a few states to seceed.
Hopefully Romney will win and the ghettos will riot, finally allowing us to take out the trash and remove the useless once and for all.
Certainly no matter what, the USA will never be the same. An Obama win will not be legitimate in fact, due to massive ghetto vote fraud, but a Romney win will never be seen as legitimate by the media, fueling ghetto anger. The UN may even issue a statement declaring the vote for Romney illegitimate.
Before any revolution this country will see a massive race war. Sadly for the blacks, they won't last longer than a week.
Aw, shucks - yer just joshin'!
Someone called it a few weeks ago: Obama wins and the Republican supporters fall to pieces, just like the Dem supporters did in '04.
Obviously, anything can happen, but it still looks like an Obama re-election to me.
Maybe Ron Paul voters will make the difference. Wouldn't that be ironic?
In favor of who? I would have no respect for a RP supporter who would cast his or her vote with either MR or BO.
I often think about what would happen if enough people in the US decided that the two party system was indeed a scam. Look at the old CCCP: the prols voted year after year, decade after decade, and then >>poof<<.
As long as the US prols are:
nuthin' much is going to happen.
The real social contract, bitchez.
In the event a third party rises, one of the parties will cease to exist. We do not have a parliamentary system where smaller parties can assert control over the majority through the formation of coalitions. We are a 1s and 0s society - either or - good bad.
I respect voting on principle, but I do not know if this is the election to get the libertarian party it's 5% of the vote for matching funds (a not too libertarian idea to begin with). Voting third party this time around is a waste of time. Just stay home. This is the last election I vote in, and that's only for my own conscience, in the rare event I have to be accountable to some higher power. The people of this country will decide just how far gone we really are as a people and a species, and I'm okay with whatever they decide. Enjoy the decline!
I'll have more stress if Obama wins or not...I got 3 figures on the guy at -168 on Pinnacle!
I only gamble on elections: That way, when my guy wins.....I actually benefit from it!
If you are a Libertarian and you live in a state that is locked up by Obama or Romney, then you MUST vote Libertarian, so the Libertarian party can get 5% of the vote and matching funds.
The old Gordian Knot. Those who fish with baitcasters are very familiar with solving this issue.
pods
I call them birds nests, but the solution is the same.
I am going to be fucking pissed on Wednesday if either Obama or Romney wins
Pissed in the European sense? I've got plenty of scotch so I'll be pissed too.
It remains "too close to call" only among those who want to continue writing hyperbolic headlines and drive ad revenue. Obama is the favorite and will most likely win. Not that it matters... If your ego is tied to this election then you need to realign your priorities.
Who cares, we are screwed either way! I'm voting 3rd party, at least i'll be able to hold my head high when the SHTF in December
I voted for Ron Paul myself.
I don't get it, unless you are in a state that is clearly r or d. Just stay home. It's not a wasted vote, it's just a waste of time where you could be doing something more productive. This is my last election voting, and I'm voting Romney, and for once it appears as though he might have a small chance in commie Minnesota. Romney did enough to earn my vote this time - last time I voted for Barr. If the libertarians were smart they would focus their efforts on the solid blue states where your vote doesn't matter at all - that's where they could accumulate their 5%. Third parties need to use the reality of the electoral college to their advantage - start appealing to practicality rather than principle, because the fact is we have an either or society and a yes or no choice is about all we can handle as a society and species.
Fortunately, those being more familiar with the situation are not vulnerable to any such post-election psychological pressures at all. No matter how close or how far the contest, no matter who the candidates are, or whether they even exist, there will be the same winner as always before. Unfortunately, all the rest are losers.
The people get the government they deserve. There may be some grand conspiracy, but the people allowed it to happen and even encouraged it.
thul, the people were brain washed the country was raped by free trade and the elites danced around the owl - this was a plan long ago set in motion. history does contain the details from wilson to the present. some at the top even think it's the best for all in long run..but here at zh we know about the end of the long run.
Thulsa, this would be true if people had enough reliable information upon which they could make reasonable decisions. But they are constantly being assured of and tricked into false beliefs in a coherent and monolithic way. Not everyone is capable of figuring out facts and truths deliberately hidden from him/her, and particularly, those going against the herd thinking. It's sometimes pretty difficult to sort things out, even for developed minds, and to learn how to properly 'read between the lies'.
I'm not about to defend people at all costs, just want to expose the back side of the coin.
The Democrats have come out up here 100% PUBLICLY against New Yorkers, New Jersey-ites and Connecticut Yankees from having their own supplies of fuel. This while offering so called "FREE FUEL" for people who don't have any. I think if you're freezing and homeless right now and don't understand "there's a policy reason for this and it's been going on a decade now" then you are what you vote for...and that ain't Republican or Democrat...but HOMELESS AND HUNGRY. I WILL NOT VOTE FOR THAT TOMORROW. By all means tho..."give in to hate and vote your rage" if you wish. Hasn't changed anything in my life.
Amen. The people get the government they deserve. It's time to observe George Carlin's emotional indifference. You reap what you sow, and it's harvest time.
A statement which I wish I had long ago made into a huge bumpersticker:
ELECTION 2012:
WHOEVER WINS
AMERICA LOSES
O-Phone is going to get stomped.
BO is the skidmark on the underwear of America.
The combination of ignorance, narcissism, lack of empathy and firearms is troubling. Throw in a dash of apocalyptic myth and you have a recipe for provocateurs to prosper.
Abstract fear and low intelligence are the required raw materials and the US is exceptionally endowed in that area. The children are being taught that shitting the bed is the only way to cleanse.
In the big picture, a society such as this does not deserve to, and in fact can't, be sustained.
"Purging is at last at hand. Day of Doom is here!"
But but but... I was promised riots after the election! I want them!
I say the Dems, the party of the dumb and deluded and dependent, better not win, if we have any chance to maintain what's good about America.
What's all the great stuff the Dems are going to ruin if Obama wins?
fail, ooops