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Art Cashin Warns: "Pray It's Not Close - For The Country's Sake"

Tyler Durden's picture


We have discussed in detail the potential ramifications of a 'close' vote (here, here, and here), and only yesterday UBS Art Cashin opined on the potential for an 'embarrassing victory'. Today, the wizened market participant turns the rhetoric dial to 11 (and rightly so) as he warns "pray it's not close" for fear of the polarization of the populace that could occur.

Via Art Cashin of UBS:

Pray That It's Not Close – We have written several times of our concern that a close race could further divide an already polarized populace. Already the legal eagles for both sides are deploying. Here's a bit from USA Today:

In an election this close, expected to be decided by razor-thin margins in key states, both campaigns face a series of Election Day worries that have already begun to bubble to the surface.


Ranging from long lines at polling places to disputes over voter identification, today's vote is already being disputed in some locations.


Both campaigns have assembled legal teams to leap into action at any hint of voting irregularities, like voting machine malfunctions, allegations of voter intimidation and challenges to the legitimacy of absentee and "provisional" votes.


On Sunday, a Florida judge extended early-voting hours in Orange County — a key swing region of a prized battleground state — after Democrats sued to provide more time for long lines of people trying to cast votes.


New York and New Jersey were still scrambling to resolve voting problems created by Hurricane Sandy. New Jersey said it would expand online voting for those whose polling places have been disrupted, a move New York election officials rejected. New York has also had to relocate polling places, which could create voting challenges.


Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida — all critical swing states for the presidential election — have faced pitched battles throughout the summer over voter-identification laws. As late as last week, Ohio election officials were issuing new rules for what ID is required and how the voter's identification should be certified.

Ohio may have some extra challenges. Here's a piece from Keene Little at Option Investor:

This year Ohio sent absentee-ballot applications to about 95% of its citizens rather than require people to request one. Anyone who returned the application was then sent an absentee ballot, which then requires them to vote by the absentee ballot and not at a polling station. If they do try to vote at a polling station they'll cast a provisional ballot which must then be held under lock and key for 10 days while the state waits to see if an absentee ballot had been received. At the moment some are guessing that there could be 250K or more provisional ballots as a result of this. That large of a number could easily cause Ohio to not be able to project a winner if the voting is too close to call.

Carefully note that no provisional ballots can even be counted until 10 days after the Election. If Florida 2000 was a horror, a close election this year could present six or seven Floridas. Pray its not close – for the country's sake.


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Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:43 | 2951565 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Earth to Art, the polarization has already occurred...  the presidential race is merely icing on the cake.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:47 | 2951581 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

i would pray if i did such things for a tie at zero votes each.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:52 | 2951586 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



"I don't care who does the electing, so long as I get to do the nominating."
-Boss Tweed


United we stand, divided we fall


Divided and ruled



A vote for Gary Johnson is not a vote for Obama, nor a vote for Romney, it is a vote for Gary Johnson.

A is A. A is not B.




Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:53 | 2951611 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

allow me to explain reality to you: by voting for a KNOWN lost cause loser, you still continue to tacitly support the RIGGED SYSTEM which is giving you NO CHOICE in reality. Get it? Got it? Good. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:55 | 2951618 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yep, the sheep spook easy!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:01 | 2951642 redpill
redpill's picture

Yeah, and you can pray that after an all-night bender of coke, whores, and champagne that you won't wind up with a hangover and herpes, but it's not the best game plan.  Whoever wins, tomorrow we'll wake up with a political STD and a shitload of regret.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:02 | 2951653 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you mean we'll wake up with another STD or a really bad outbreak of the tumescent glow in the dark herpe that we already sported?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:24 | 2951741 malikai
malikai's picture

FUCK! Is that what that itch is???

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:49 | 2951841 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

A stridently divided populace is the best thing that could happen here.  People would be forced to wake the fuck up and stop taking everything for granted.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:01 | 2951879 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I want a close corrupt election.  We need to split this country up, the sooner the better. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:06 | 2951895 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you see Newt as your new Jefferson Davis?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 17:48 | 2953274 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Newt is a statist carpetbagger, ain't gonna happen- at least not behind him.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:16 | 2951935 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Not really...  that is naturally going to occur when we're forced to start sucking dick for bread and circuses.  If a divided populace was actually beneficial to us, then the system wouldn't be set up to ensure our division...  just saying.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:23 | 2951743 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

No, it means when we wake up tomorrow we both still lost.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:26 | 2955745 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Just stopping back to confirm.

Yup, we both lost.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:25 | 2951753 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Here are a few videos that match my political philosophy.  No matter who wins the election, the Federal Reserve and its owners win.


Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:05 | 2951667 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

let's see if in 4 years there's an electable sociopath..

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:29 | 2951769 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

A tie vote doesn't faze me.  In case of a deadlock, this nation has a proven leader it can turn to.  He's had four years to  rest and I'm certain he's waiting for the knock on his door.

You know you want him back.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:38 | 2951806 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Dick Cheney???

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:06 | 2951891 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Yes. He's got that 12 year old black kid's heart implanted and he's ready to rock.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:13 | 2951921 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Arab kid. They waterboarded him to death, then took his heart.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:09 | 2951902 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Let's see if there's an election in four years. Fixed that for ya'.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:59 | 2951631 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

By not voting, you are not supporting the system - but you still willingly subject yourself to its consequences.  If you aren't going to try to make it better, then move somewhere else.  Nihilism accomplishes nothing.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:00 | 2951643 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you just don't get it, do you? you vote DAILY by the decisions you make, the companies you support (i.e. voting with your $), the way you live. the system can only change as per that. WAKE UP PEOPLE. 


you drink coca cola? eat McShit burgers? use toxic fabric softener? get fat? want your nanny state to rescue you?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:10 | 2951681 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

You are correct, but how do you expect people to change the way they live?  How can people "wake up" if no one tells them they are asleep?  While you sit at home and type on a few message boards, the brainwashing continues for the majority of people.  I'd like a real leader to INFORM people that the modern way of thinking is wrong.  And the only way a real leader can accomplish this is if people like us offer our support.  Doing nothing produces nothing.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:14 | 2951703 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

why don't you be a real leader and lead by example. after you're done typing on a forum

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2951714 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Slow day at your own blog, vast-dom?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:18 | 2951720 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

glad you're enjoying. (my blog is effectively over the day of my posting of Miscreants.)

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:24 | 2951747 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I recognize that I don't have the skillset to be an effective leader, but I would gladly support someone who does.  That being said, if someone were to effectively organize a non-voting movement that was coupled with a call to change the system (i.e. declaration, petition, protests) I would consider joining them too.  But I refuse to be a nihilist.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:56 | 2951858 pods
pods's picture

You absolutely ARE a nihilist.  Your first and last sentences prove it.

Who knows better what to do with your own life than you?  

You are here, so evidently you know something is wrong today.  Follow through with your self-education and you will realize that you are your own best leader.


Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:18 | 2951945 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Actually, I'm going to have to pull out my inigo montoya cliche and say that nihilism doesn't mean what he thinks it means.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:25 | 2951971 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I think we have different definitions of leadership.  A leader does not tell me what to do.  A leader doesn't even "allow" me to do what I want, because I shouldn't require anyone's permission.  I am my own best leader when it comes to living my life.

However, a good leader will prevent the corruption of the people and the government by being a consistant source of reason and willingness to do the right thing.  A good leader will not stand for an overreaching goverment.  Therefore, I am not my own best leader when it comes to keeping the government out of my life, because I have yet to prevent the robbery of my income every April 15th.

If you are so effective that you aren't monitored or tracked by the state, that you don't pay for any government programs that you don't want to, that you can operate any business you want without restriction or beaurocracy, please, share your secrets with me.  I'd love to know.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:57 | 2952095 pods
pods's picture

I am certainly not some John Gault.  I have withdrawn from the system as best as the present time allows.  For now, zero credit, paying off all debt and instructing others as to why they should do the same is much more effective than voting IMO.

The debt system we are under would collapse if all of us individuals refused to take on debt.

I must have misread your initial post, as it came across as you were wanting someone to solve the issues of the day, to lead you.  

I apologize for misreading you.

You will never find the person you are looking for in government.  Power attracts those who want to wield it.  You have to want to wield that kind of power to be involved to begin with.


Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:22 | 2952209 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

It's all good.  We do the best we can, and you are correct, the system would collapse if everyone withdrew from it.  That's why I talk about having a good leader - someone to inspire people to do just that.  People don't give power to a leader, a leader gives power to the people by reminding them of their own power.

I also believe there exists the kind of person who can step up to task without the drive for power, but simply a desire to make the world a better place.  If someone can stand and speak to crowd, explain the problems with the system and the way out, highlight the message without highlighting himself as part of the solution, then I would listen.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2951708 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

When real leaders do that they get killed. The masses see and accept this and go right back to their slave lifestyle.

Only complete and total destruction of the system allows for real leaders to arise and make positive change. However, the same opportunity then exists for the truly evil leaders.

Bottom line...things are still too comfortable, and nothing is going to change.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:26 | 2951760 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

"When real leaders do that they get killed."

I hope you aren't talking about Lincoln and Kennedy.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:13 | 2951918 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Only real leaders get assasinated....

Hence, Reagan and Ford lived...

McKinley I suppose is the exception that proves the rule....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:56 | 2952087 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Reagan lived, but he got the message loud and clear.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:26 | 2951761 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have to agree with community standard here...I only began looking at Ron Paul after he did so well in the 2008 election.  It's the elevation of the idea by showing support for the ideas you want to see and the best path to getting there is your free market approach.  If we dont shop at Libertarian Gary Johnson's shop today it will not be there tomorrow.


Mark my words.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:31 | 2951775 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

By not voting and explaining why, to whoever listens, I still make a statement. And that statement is, the lesser of two evils is still evil and I will not dignify the false premises upon which these so-called choices (there ARE no choices) are offered. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:57 | 2951633 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

You are an idiot troll.

The responsible voter will certainly vote because:

1) Almost everywhere there is someone or something on the ballot worth voting for, even if Obamney vs. Rombama is too ugly to touch.

2) The act of voting does some small measure preserve the right for the future, at a time when plenty of schemers would take it away.  If no one votes, it becomes much easier to just cancel voting altogether.

The responsible voter writes in Mickey Mouse or someone symbolic if the candidates are both terrible.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:29 | 2951774 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"The responsible voter will"

Stop.  You look like a fool.  "We don't have responsible voters."  Might as well have said "responsible carp" - we dont have any of those either.


But if you are vote Gary Johnson.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:37 | 2951800 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Well programmed, are you. You wanted like hell to believe in the words you wrote, but somewhere inside, even as you told yourself you were right, it didn't feel completely right. That is called cognitive dissonance and it's trying to tell you something. Embrace it.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:51 | 2952356 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Why would any sane person vote for someone that continuously lies to the people?

After the lessons of the last 44 years, anyone that votes for either a republican or a democrat should be prosecuted for conspiracy to commit treason.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:53 | 2951614 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

The happy market is predicting a decisive victory for someone.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:59 | 2951641 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Tha market is happy because no matter who wins there will be more printing....problem is market forces are going to overwhelm the printing soon.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:57 | 2951628 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I voted for Ron Paul which is not a vote for Obama, Romney, nor Gary's a vote of principle.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:18 | 2951728 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I voted for Jill Stein.

[Spastica Rex ducks and covers his head with his arms.]

Come on; it's not like she's going to win.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:25 | 2951750 malikai
malikai's picture

Kloset Keynesian!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:27 | 2951767 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I just like the marijuana part.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:31 | 2951780 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm just pulling your tail. I'm encouraging all my "liberal" friends to look at her.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:59 | 2952387 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Clearly an issues driven voter....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:11 | 2951698 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Apparently, there's an election going on today.  That reminds me...

On this day, 151 years ago, Jefferson Davis was elected President of the Confederacy.

“All we ask is to be let alone.” -Jefferson Davis

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:55 | 2952371 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:17 | 2951943 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

voted G Johnson, could not vote for the R or D..not that diebold has the outcome a few weeks ago as the" trailers of the vote results ran on several TV stations across the nation in the last few weeks"..seems O won but 49 to it was close and lawyers gave a cheer.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:30 | 2951994 zapdude
zapdude's picture

Yes, voted Gary Johnson this morning. 

Then voted NO!!! on flouridating our city water supply -- keep your industrial waste out of my drinking water!  If I wanted more flouride in my diet I would eat toothpaste - which has a poison label on it for ingesting more than a teaspoon!

Also voted against my Republicon Congressman who voted in favor of NDAA -- I picked the Libertarian candidate (whatshisname).

Sadly, we really are not given the choice of Liberty or Tyranny -- it's just Red Tyranny or Blue Tyranny.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:48 | 2951593 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The key issue in the presidential election is the economy. The American public is more skeptical than ever, and smooth political rhetoric just isn't going to cut it. Government unions want to know exactly what the sizes of their pensions are going to be, and they need to be assured that there will be absolutely no cuts to their benefits. Workers want to know exactly what each Presidential candidate is going to do to stimulate the economy. Which candidate is willing to invest more in fiscal stimulus programs? Which candidate cares about the poor and the sick? These are all fundamental questions that we need to be asking as responsible voters.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:50 | 2951597 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

a responsible voter this election WILL REFUSE TO VOTE. so let's get united here and all agree to just say no to voting.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:55 | 2951617 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Done, or, given the opening times for polling, in the process of becoming done.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:12 | 2951700 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Which candidate favors job growth?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2951713 Bubble
Bubble's picture

MDB, you're kind of dull now. I don't even bother reading your posts anymore. It was funny initially, especially the way everyone bit and got riled up. But this is the internet, the same jokes get old fast. Basically, what I'm saying is: snore off.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:40 | 2951819 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

He may be getting a little dull, but not as dull as all the people who respond to him as if he was being serious.  

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:15 | 2951927 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I dunno. I got a chuckle. He summed up the thought process of the sheep quite well.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:30 | 2951779 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

What? No "libertarian doomer" shit on election day?

Come on... 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:36 | 2951797 malikai
malikai's picture


Peak MDB was brutal.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:11 | 2951908 Matt
Matt's picture

I have no doubt that government employees will recieve the nominal amount of dollars they are promised, regardless of the purchasing power of those dollars.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:10 | 2951692 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Yeah really, MM.

You took the words right out of my mouth.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:43 | 2951568 UnpatrioticHoarder
UnpatrioticHoarder's picture

If the election is tied, the House gets to choose. They could choose anyone, even Ron Paul!!!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2951781 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

In the case of a tie the only sensible choice is the 'Decider'.  Not to decide the tie, but to unite the people and get us going again.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:44 | 2951574 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i say: "Pray it is very close. FOR the country's sake".

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:22 | 2951735 machineh
machineh's picture

If Ds and Rs both end up aggrieved over being cheated after another farcical court battle, neither can claim a 'mandate.'

And that's the best way to minimize the harm done by our next Depublicrat dictator, who will be elected by about 25% of the adult population.

Not voting is the best revenge!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:39 | 2951810 malikai
malikai's picture

Agreed. A drawn out, dirty street fight is just what is needed. The worse the better.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:44 | 2951575 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Fuck the country...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:45 | 2951576 Nid
Nid's picture

Oh bullshit! A year's worth of recounts and a Rmoney win would be far superior to another Obama term.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:52 | 2951609 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I'd prefer to avoid WWIII, thanks.  I voted Johnson.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:10 | 2951684 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

thank you your vote has been duly counted: LOSE or in your words WWIII



Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2951709 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

World War 3 is already on. The muslim nations around Israel, and Israel, define this fact. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:28 | 2951770 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

True, but US participation depends on having a red or blue president.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2951785 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

True True

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:16 | 2951934 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Does it?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:22 | 2951964 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Absolutely, you know, the red ones go to war... and the blue ones mount new offensives and continue the war...  and stir up shit everywhere else...  so, err...  crap, I'm confused.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:57 | 2952097 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Lol! Clear as mud! :-)

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:23 | 2952215 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

I guess that's true except for Vietnam (Kennedy, Johnson), korea (Truman), WWI(Wilson), WWII(Roosevelt) & Spanish/American (the other Roosevelt).  Doesn't leave much for the RED team does it?  Can't even consider Iraq and Afganistan wars, just police actions.

History not your strong suit, eh?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:48 | 2952339 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Pretty good, except Teddy wasn't Prez 'til after the Spanish-American war was over. And he was a Republican. But comparing a Republican from 100+ years ago to one from today is an apples to slugs comparison.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:52 | 2952591 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

That whoosh noise was the point of my post going over your head.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:15 | 2952445 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

Well, if Obama wins, and WHEN  we end up dropping iron in Syria and Iran, please kill yourself for being so easily duped by the "blue" party. 

Don't laugh R's...Romney will give you similar reasons to jump off a 10-story building as he deviates from all his promises too.

Me?  I'm voting FOR chaos.  Anarchy now!  Live fast and die young.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:08 | 2951678 Nid
Nid's picture

Hey, while we're at it, just go ahead and raise the debt limits to avoid some inconvenient little tiff regarding the "fiscal cliff".

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:45 | 2951578 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I just want it over with. Nothing like watching two thugs spend $6billion to be in control over the printing press. Fuck US politicians.  

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:47 | 2951583 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

thats it in an nut shell, who gets to launder the money?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:25 | 2951752 machineh
machineh's picture

Give me a printing press, and I care not who 'wins.'

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:47 | 2951582 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RIGHT if its not close....then we're OKEY DOKEY! Phew, glad I now know that.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:16 | 2951719 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

If it is that close, then the de rigeur disenfranchment of US troops serving and dying overseas becomes an issue. 

I'm generally for trial by jury and against cruel and unusual punishment, but there are certain exceptions and that is one of them.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:47 | 2951584 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

It won't be close at all no matter what the typical BS mainstream media wanting to keep viewership/readership up says.

From the guy whose statistical methodology correctly predicted 49 out of 50 state results in 2008 - Odds of winning: Obama 91.6%, Mittens 8.4%

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:58 | 2951623 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

For those hitting down arrows on my post above, I'm not an Obama supporter either if that helps.  I'm just reporting what seem to be by far the past-proven best methodology in actually predicting results.  I've seen a number of elections in the past where it was supposedly SO close and turned out to be not even close at all, so the methodologies used in the past were obviously pure crap.

And, BTW, YOU are screwed either way no matter who wins and no matter what you might imagine.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:25 | 2951749 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The likelihood of an Obama win doesn't say anything about how close or not close the election will be.

The popular vote could be tied (being a "close election") and the EC results could be a blowout.  Or vice-versa.

It's a mistake to overreach based on Silver's research.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:32 | 2951782 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes and no...  BHO will be re-elected on the basis of the Constitution and it won't be close...

And some Red states will get very uppity about it, you know, the ones that historically have had issues with the Constitution....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:57 | 2951864 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Secession's probably the best idea, but the blue-states might have to negotiate for some kind of DMZ or right-of-way through the middle of the continent for national security purposes.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:16 | 2951936 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No, it gets split into 3, CA, OR and WA would choose to go their own way as well...

Texas will soon realize that subsidizing the deabeats like MS, AL are not worth effort....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:26 | 2951978 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Whoa, first time I've seen a list with mississippi and alabama on it that didn't include arkansas!  Thanks! 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:39 | 2952023 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I was going to include it.... not sure why I didn't, Lord knows the three of them are peas in a pod...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:08 | 2952153 viahj
viahj's picture

yeah, all of them are heavily forested, have arable land and access to shipping...why would any one want that?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:21 | 2952205 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That would explain their outstanding success to date....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:10 | 2952156 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

not really...  arkansas is actually fairly progressive (in comparison to its former self)...  north arkansas is viable (northeast arkansas is adding jobs/not shedding them)...  south arkansas is mississippi 2.0.  Lot of ag plays as well as oil and nat gas plays going on here...  hasn't really had its chance to formally sweep through the state proper via multiplier effect.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:36 | 2952288 tron2012
tron2012's picture

Umm Northwest Arkansas alone is home to Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. world head quarters, Tyson Foods, Inc. World head quarters, and J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. is headquartered there as well.

Oh yeah, and we got this too:

I think "deadbeat" would be the wrong choice of words. More like holding our own and ripe for independence. The Fed never gave us shit for roads or infrastructure anyways. NWA = One Freeway with two lanes going north and south (I-540) for a metro area of 1/6th the state's population in two Arkansas counties. Yeah.



Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:51 | 2952587 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

don't forget the housing overhang in NW arkansas though...  brought largely about through walmart's requirement for vendors to be located in NW AR so that it could deal directly with them...  and then everyone else getting out the ruler to draw a straight line up on housing demand and everything else.  Didn't work out too well.


Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:18 | 2952453 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

maybe their deadbeats will travel the DMZ to the promised land of D.C., Baltimore and NYC?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 18:15 | 2953339 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Well, lets look at Welfare recipients and see what is what, shall we?

2010 TANF (actual Welfare) recipeints by state-

2010 state populations from the Census-

Poor government dependent rednecks:

Mississippi- Avg. 25,301 on welfare in calendar year 2010, 2,967,297 people= .85%

Alabama- Avg. 53,488 on welfare in calendar year 2010, 4,799,736 people= 1.12%

Arkansas- 19,259 on welfare, 2,915,918 people- .66%

Yankees and Californians:

California- Avg. 1,437,394 on welfare, 37,253,936 people= 3.86%

Massachusetts- Avg. 97,472 on welfare, 6,547,629 people = 1.49%

New York- Avg. 272,292 on welfare, 19,378,102 people= 1.41%

Ohio- Avg. 2238,388 on welfare, 11,536,504= 2.07%

Food Stamp usage is a little higher in the South and I cant find good Section 8 statistics but the welfare queens of the nation are definitely Left Coasters and Yankees.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:18 | 2951946 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Since when does O'bomb-a give a fuck about the Constitution? Never has, never will.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:28 | 2951986 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Run along and go play outside, the adults are trying to have a discussion...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:48 | 2952054 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Answer the question.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:05 | 2952139 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

He has upheld the constitution as well, if not better than any President other than Carter within my living memory....

BTW, I remember things very well all the way back to Nixon...

That being said, I agree  that he could of and should have done better....


Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:23 | 2952222's picture

You hold your dictators to a really high standard. Good for you.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:39 | 2952305 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I hear your momma calling from the Gulch....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:58 | 2952384 Overfed
Overfed's picture

How the fuck do you figure he's upheld the Constitution well? Did he veto renewal of the "Patriot" Act? Nawp.

Did he end extrajudicial killings (assassinations)? Nawp.

Did he send NDAA 2012 back to Congress and insist that the unconstitutional bits be taken out? Nawp.

Did he get permission from Congress before involving the US in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and stepping up the drone strikes and bombings in Pakistan, Sudan, and practically every other weakling in the MENA? Nawp.

Did he work to end the "War on Drugs"? Nawp.

Did his administration funnel thousands of guns into Mexico from US gun shops in order to justify another "assault weapons" ban? Yep.

Has he done more power grabs and and even further usurped power from Congress and the people than even Shrub? Yep.


Just that short list makes it pretty easy to call bullshit on your assertion that he has upheld the Constitution.

Now run along and play in the gulch and let the adults have a discussion.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:01 | 2952394 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It would appear that you don't read closely or well, let alone between the lines....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:11 | 2952675 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Argumentum ad hominem. You don't have an argument, so you resort to a personal attack. Nice.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 16:51 | 2953077 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Read very carefully what I wrote...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:30 | 2951776 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Got any numbers on 2010 predictions?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:06 | 2952145 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There is this thing called a search engine...

It is amazing what you can dig out when you are motivated....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:28 | 2952239's picture

Have you looked up Lincoln's First Inaugural Address yet or do you still claim that Lincoln's goal in starting the war against the southern states was to free the slaves rather than to continue to collect taxes as he plainly stated?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:40 | 2952311 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ok.. and what was the motivation for the proffered olive branch? Was it good enough for the South?

Go play your revisionist history games with your other buddies...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:19 | 2952457's picture

So a literal reading of Lincoln's own words constitutes revisionist history?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:57 | 2952379 juangrande
juangrande's picture

It has to seem close, always. TV revenue depends on it. The best reality TV there is!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:48 | 2951590 sickofthepunx
sickofthepunx's picture

the popular vote will probably be close thanks to the redneck belt but it's shaping up to be an electoral landslide.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:51 | 2951606 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Exactly what the guy I linked to above shows on his web page I linked to.  I've read his methodology and it makes far more statistical sense that any other so-called prediction method.  Video of interview with him last night:

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:52 | 2951591 Nid
Nid's picture

By the way, "Florida 2000 was a horror"??? What the fuck does that mean? I always considered Cashin a wise and insigtful man. What the fuck is this populist drivel?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:00 | 2951645 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

In terms of officials trying to decide who someone voted for it was a horror. It's almost like electronic voting..

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:10 | 2951695 Nid
Nid's picture

And arugments were made before the court and a decision was made...big fucking deal. What was the alternative? Btw, those were manual ballots, not electronic.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:41 | 2951826 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

     What was the alternative?

One alternative would be some kind of formalization of the election process, so the USA doesn't continue to look like a completely dysfunctional banana republic that can't successfully hold a "free and fair" national election.

Alternatively, we could just own up to the fact that the whole process is a sham and be done with elections. 

Outsource it to the same company that handles American Idol voting and we could turn it into both a popularity contest AND a revenue generator.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:17 | 2951941 Matt
Matt's picture

Only problem is, I think you can vote as many times as you like for American Idol, at $0.99 per vote.

Why not proxy vote, the people who handle shareholder votes for corporations?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:36 | 2952761 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    Only problem is, I think you can vote as many times as you like for American Idol, at $0.99 per vote.

Why is that a problem?  Doesn't that just level the playing field a bit between individuals and corporations when it comes to campaign finance?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:33 | 2951786 machineh
machineh's picture

'Florida 2000' was supremely entertaining.

Watching the clueless dorks on the Florida Supreme Court on TV proved that the 'man behind the curtain' is a retarded dwarf.

Then the hacks in black in D.C. trumped them with a federal ukase deciding the election. 

'Florida 2000' showed that democracy was fatally broken, well before the following year's decisive coup d'etat.

Let's hope this year's clusterfuck will lead to fisticuffs and truncheons in the courtroom wars.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:48 | 2951592 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I thought the outcome was already decided 3 years ago by Goldman S.?

why all the fuzz?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:58 | 2951634 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Exactly.  The same owners are in charge no matter who wins this charade.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:40 | 2951820 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Exactly. You're powerless. Exactly as the election system was designed

Next question, what ya gonna do about it? ............?!

can i suggest you sign the 'Declaration of Independence'

not that century old document made-up by some old farts and handed down to the masses to believe in. But your very own Declaration of Independence, free from that sewer of an institution that trashed the last one and any last hope you had of achieving whatever you veinly falsely were led to believe it was about (it was a lie centuries ago, it's as bigger lie today)

Confirm your signature by Stop Paying Tax

you are now free (and materially richer) to make your own policies through life without a bunch of bankrupt fucks, like WS bwankers, hanging off your veins and sick meglomaniacs, like Donald Rumsfeld, mass-murdering abroad in your name with your sponsorship money (neither policies you ever got to vote on or will ever in your life get to vote on)

Stop Paying Tax  ...stop the rot today

Freedom ...from Govt intervention in your wallet and your life

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:35 | 2951789 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

See there is this ridiculous ritual we do every once in a while to calm the herd...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:57 | 2951852 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

most of the herd don't vote, they've seen the ritual is futile (that's the sane ones)

don't let the ques at polling fool you, that's the insane minority having the usual problem of being inefficiently processed by Govt ineptness, and the MSM hyper-bollox it's a "popluar vote"

the fraud of 'democracy' by the elite never stops's in their best interests to refresh the lie

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:55 | 2952085 Matt
Matt's picture

The most common way voter turn-out is calculated is by taking number of vote, divided by total population. Low voter turn out may be a myth; a proper calculation would be total votes divided by total number of eligible voters. 

See myth #2:

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:49 | 2951596 The Gooch
Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:51 | 2951602 dbTX
dbTX's picture

With so many lawyers deployed, what could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:54 | 2951610 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lets the chaos ensue...this country is headed towards a civil war eventually..maybe this will be the catalyst to get the ball rolling.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 11:37 | 2951802 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Careful kemosabi... I don't think you would have been standing around in 1860 saying, "come on- lets get the millions dead now so I can be home for dinner."

If you did I would imagine you'd regret it by 1865.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 12:17 | 2951942 malikai
malikai's picture

It seems there were quite a few who were saying the very same things then as are now. Probably for many of the same reasons. Anyway, I think a civil war these days would not be like in the 1860s. Society is far too mixed along nonlinear physical boundaries. It seems to me that the next civil war will be a class war. There may or may not be organized battles and fighting, but millions will die either way.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:44 | 2952326 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Now, how do we explain that to our kids?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:20 | 2952467 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

Evolution. Love it, live it. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:26 | 2952470 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

Dupe 1

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:28 | 2952480 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

Dupe 2 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 16:41 | 2953043 malikai
malikai's picture

It's going to be hard, but the kids will adapt. If we do the right thing they will grow up knowing it. If we do the wrong things, those who survive will know it, too.

That's the only solace I can find.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 10:53 | 2951613 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Yo, Tylers, get on this one if y'all please.  I look at a LOT of press every day and rarely does a major national outlet get this close to right.  From Der Spiegel:


Destroyed by Total Capitalism America Has Already Lost Tuesday's Election

A Commentary by Jakob Augstein


Total capitalism, however, has left American society in ruins and crippled the government. America's fate is not just an accident produced by the system. It is a consequence of that system.

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