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Guest Post: A Final Selection Day Update
Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,
A Close Race?
Predictions regarding the election outcome are all over the place. Dennis Gartman for instance thinks that 'Romney will win quite handily'. While this opinion may be largely informed by wishful thinking in this case, there are two interesting points made by Gartman. One concerns poll errors, something we have previously discussed in the context of the 1948 election, which was a pretty glaring failure of the polls. According to Gartman:
"First, he uses the the 1980 election as an example where Carter had a 2-3% point lead over Gov. Reagan. Carter was expected to win the race, but he did not."
If this is meant to illustrate the general principle that polls can be in error, then fair enough. If it is meant to equate Obama with Carter and Romney with Reagan, it is way off the mark. Just as a reminder: the 1980 election took place at the tail end of an inflationary economic crisis and Carter had to fend off a democratic challenger for the nomination (Ted Kennedy), who viciously attacked him for eight months. In addition there was of course the Iran hostage crisis and the botched rescue attempt, which hurt Carter's reelection chances immensely.
It goes without saying that Romney is no Reagan.
Another point made by Gartman concerns the Bradley (or Wilder) effect, which we had not heard of before. Apparently this is a kind of 'political correctness effect' (i.e., it is not motivated by racism, but by the fear of people that they might be seen as racist). It seems though that this effect may have been far greater in the 1980's when it was first posited to exist. Nowadays people are probably generally more relaxed about the race of political candidates.
“Gartman also refers to the Bradley/Wilder Effect, a theory where non-white candidates do better in the polls than the final election results show.”
Jim Cramer is taking the exact opposite view from Gartman's, expecting a 'landslide' victory for Obama. Of course Cramer wouldn't be Cramer if his forecast didn't stand out for being a bit extreme.
The Princeton election consortium's latest update of the meta-analysis of the electoral vote count on the eve of the election continues to predict an Obama victory as well, but clearly the race is getting tighter. The median estimator has dropped to the lower end of the 'strike zone' (a 68% confidence interval of probable outcomes based on today's polls).

According to the PEC's 'meta-analysis', Obama still enjoys a fairly comfortable margin, but it is not as big as it once used to be.
Intrade odds look fairly good for Obama, although they actually should be far higher this close to the election if traders were to hew more closely to what the analysis of the polls reflects. As Sam Wang of Princeton explains here, the election contracts traded at intrade suffer from inefficiencies that are likely due to the political biases of traders.
Obama's intrade odds are now at 65.8%, but they should actually be far higher based on the meta-margin analysis.
Of course the time when intrade bets pay off best is when the majority of traders turns out to be completely wrong and one has taken the other side of the trade. The rational trade in this case would be to buy the contract, but the bigger pay-off would result if one sold it short and it turns out on election day that the polls had it wrong. It would be a chance for Mr. Gartman to swing for the fences.
An Election Already Lost
If you want to get an impression of how some Europeans see the US and how deeply ingrained the socialist mentality is in Europe, we point you to an article in Der Spiegel, colorfully entitled 'America has already lost Tuesday's election'. The author opines that the 'outcome of the election won't matter to Europe', which is fair enough – it won't matter to anyone, after all. The only sense in which it matters to us is in how the markets might react in the short term to the outcome.
However, the author's theory that 'total capitalism' rules America and that it will 'destroy the country' is so utterly ridiculous as to almost leave one speechless. To equate the statist system that is in in place in the US of today with 'capitalism', much less 'total capitalism', is well beyond ridiculous. One might perhaps call it 'crony capitalism', but the problem with using such definitions is that they obscure the true meaning of the term capitalism. 'Crony capitalism' is a term that is employed as a euphemism for the more precise 'fascism', for fear that the latter might sound too extreme. The author of the Spiegel article informs us that the 'government is powerless in the US', an assertion that would probably induce slack-jawed amazement in most US citizens.
As George Reismann reminded us back in 2008:
“Under laissez-faire capitalism, the state consists essentially just of a police force, law courts, and a national defense establishment, which deter and combat those who initiate the use of physical force. And nothing more.”
“[...] the politico-economic system of the United States today is so far removed from laissez-faire capitalism that it is closer to the system of a police state. The ability of the media to ignore all of the massive government interference that exists today and to characterize our present economic system as one of laissez faire and economic freedom marks it as, if not profoundly dishonest, then as nothing less than delusional.”
In Europe many people are more than just delusional regarding this particular point. There is unfortunately no constituency for economic freedom in most of Europe. Statism is too deeply ingrained (an exception to this rule are a number of former Eastern Bloc countries, where many people have developed an abiding hatred of the State due to suffering under communism's yoke for decades). There is however one point which the 'Spiegel' author gets right, namely his characterization of the stance of the two major US political parties and their candidates on foreign policy. He inter alia writes:
“In any case, it is wrong to characterize Republicans as the party of warmongers and Democrats as the party of peace.”
He has certainly got that right – as Justin Raimondo of anti-war.com often stresses, one can regard the two parties as the two faces of the same party, which he simply refers to as the 'war party'.
Speaking of statism, we want to refer readers to an excellent article at 'The Agitator', entitled 'Reminder: The Media Isn't Liberal, It's Statist'. The author shows by means of a few examples that it is actually incorrect to simply accuse the mainstream media of a 'liberal' (i.e., left-wing) bias, when the real problem is their utterly vicious statism, which can of course express itself in their reportage of both left-wing and right-wing causes. The examples he brings bring this point home in rather glaring fashion.
Bring Back Her Smile
Finally, there is at least one thing the end of the election circus will achieve: it will bring back little Abby's smile. She has simply had enough of the two clowns – they have driven her to shed desperate tears of frustration:
Little Abby is really tired of hearing about Obama and Romney
Also, Barton Hinkle of the Richmond Times-Dispatch reminds us 'Why the wrong side absolutely must not win'.
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What does Goldman's flow desk recommend?
The Progressives leave nothing to chance.....
It only takes $26 to hack a voting machine
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44706301/ns/technology_and_science-security/t/it-only-takes-hack-voting-machine/
The Only Way We Lose Win Is Through Fraudhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuTQqm1C99g
HHHYYYYEEEEAAHHHH!!!!
By the way, does it strike anyone else as odd that the nation collectively spends billions of dollars on campaign races, yet we have old, half-dead volunteer grandmas running our polling stations?
Whisper rumor that The Bernank is boldly swaggering around 33 Liberty Street, raiding candy dishes and flirting with the cleaning lady. As he grows more confident of a pending Obama victory, he's even insisting that staff address him as Buzz Lightyear.
How to hack an electronic voting machinehttp://www.myspace.com/video/rocko/how-to-hack-an-electronic-voting-mach...
Remote Vote Tampering Attack on a Sequoia AVC Voting Machine by Argonne National Labhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ClrHPShljM&feature=player_embedded
http://hothardware.com/News/Hacker-Rigs-Electronic-Voting-Machine-with-3...
How your vote can be hackedhttp://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/10/31/ts-voting-machine-hack....
and the best part.......... impossible to audit. NO PAPER TRAIL
New Black Panthers back at Philly voting sitehttp://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/new-black-panthers-back-at-ph...
Why are they always wearing blac...oh, I get it now!
No....not really
They can't find the gold that was under the trade centers....or Gaddafi's.....or anyone else's apparently
In a close race like this result will be determined by hacked electronic polling machines.
Subverting the lawfully established line of succession of the State, used to be High Treason. Art 3 Sec 3 ended that notion in the US along with Corruption of Blood. But the crime and punishment could be re-introduced with a simple act of Congress under a different legal nomenclature.
O/T, but check it out, gas for ass.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/hurricane-sandy-gas-for-sex-fue...
America: Beacon of Democracy!
Not having my glasses on I first read your comment as "Bacon of Democracy"
Which notice still works.
At this point I'd just take bacon and call it a day.
For when you're rearry, REARRY bored...
~~~
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon
Nothing will change as a result of this election or the political process. Things will however revert to the mean in spectacular fashion:
- Gold, the money of kings
- Silver, the money of gentlemen
- Copper, the money of beggars
- Paper, the money of con men
- Debt, the money of slaves
Today's UST auction was a success! We did it! We bought one more day for the MIC to keep that oil flowing from the Mid-East!
Mind if I steal your list from time to time?
Let's just short the coal sector and let the Choomer win. This election is starting to make me cry like a little girl.
Cramer = extremely WRONG, not just "extreme".
As for no "hostage crisis", well we're ALL being held hostage. So how is this different again?
Nobody comin' to rescue us...
"nobody" is your friend.
I'm taking great comfort in Cramer's expressed view. - Ned
Ned, are you gay?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVSYaZONz68
No, that's "Ned the Bull", so you'd be safe.
- Ned
{Not that there's anything wrong with that.}
Polls: how to ... influence people.
You can't manipulate an election where the polls show a wide margin between candidates.
Yes, but the margin is not wide in quite a few key states. Thus election fraud has the cover of plausible deniability in these states. And these states will determine the outcome of the election.
Two cheeks of the same ass.
It's all about free, open, and honest markets, which none of us have ever known. If we can get back to that, the sky's the limit.
The Princeton election consortium's latest update of the meta-analysis of the electoral vote count on the eve of the election continues to predict an Obama victory:
They have been predicting an Obama victory with a certainty of 100% since yesterday:
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 99.2%, Bayesian Prediction 100.0%
http://election.princeton.edu/
The massive inflation with an Obama victory will explain the big move in gold today. $2000 gold by December and at least $40 silver by inauguration.
Surely you do not mean to suggest that Romeny would turn off the printers?
Gold is up, but not because of the outcome of the election. I think more likely that the "go easy on the prining" window is about to close only because the election season is at an end, and whoever ends up president will get a visit from The Fed with "recommendations" on how hard to lean on CNTL-P. And it won't be "lightly and with due considerations".
Next week they are going to print fiat like mo'fos.
Buying an ounce of gold is like 100 votes for Ron Paul. That is the only way to take down these motherfuckers.
What does the NAR and BLS forecast?
pods
My wife and I are arguing today. I'm voting for no one by not going to the polls at all and she wants to go stand in line to vote for "None of the Above." So I'm thinking, "Why do I always want to do things the easy way and you always have to do things in such a way that they are as big of a pain in the ass as possible?" And then it became about not just voting, but life in general.
Simplify things.
Cut her tongue out and break her fingers.
Come now, how will she make him a sandwich with broken fingers?
May I just say that your tactic, while possibly true, was not very wise on your part. Now you'll have to live with it.
:/
Ah, but at least she cares enough to register her non-vote.
I'm waiting for the swimsuit competition before casting my vote...
I did that with Bush and Gore. I STILL have nightmares.
Sounds like Gartman is a racist... What a clown, those are the two reasons he gives for Romney winning? Someone should tell this guy to stop eating crack for breakfast....
Vote me down you fucking moron Romney supporters.... You are all a bunch of idiots...
I down-voted you and I wrote in Ron Paul this morning. So what's my label, then?
Why so upset that he gave reasons why he thinks Romney will win? He didn't give reasons why you should vote for him. Jim Cramer took the opposite stance, but no problem with him? Are you so bellicose because Gartment didn't choose your color team?
Down arrow for believing there is a choice.
Election prediction: we lose.
And everyone else besides the asshole Democrats....
The best indicator I have ever know for anything is a free market. And yes there is a free market on who will will the presidency.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp
Intrade 70% Obama, 30% Romney.
$6.5m real money traded.
Press and partisans have their own motivations for saying its close. Fact is it isn't close.
Exactly, only idiots and morons who watch TV think Romney is going to win...
You can narrow it down, the Romneyites are limited to being a subset of those that watch Fox, Fox Business, The Military Channel and/or CNBC...
The problem with "free markets" is that capitalists hate them and will do watever it takes to eliminate their competition. I believe we're living between the provebial rock and a hard place here.
InTrade assigned a 70% chance that the health care mandate would be struck down as unconstitutional the morning of the ruling. They were wrong.
InTrade is very good, but it is not perfect, and because it's such a thin market, it can be pushed around pretty easily. You want a deeper market? Check out hospital stocks like CYH, HCA and THC, which are all down 5-6% today in an up market, pointing to a Romney victory (changes to the ACA would presumably mean Medicare doesn't pick up the hospital's bills as they will under current legislation which Obama won't change). Of course, that could just be reflecting that the race is more of a coin flip after those stocks ran up the last few days, indicating an Obama victory.
In a previous life. I worked for a Statistics department. A few profs would "consult" on upcoming elections for a major media. Based on impartial, honest, and completely unbiased analysis, they could accuratllyl call an election 7-10 days out. They were accurate 90+% of the time. The last few weeks have been circus with asshole spouting opinion instead of fact. Pity.
They have been ramping the market and spinning employment numbers endlessly - you think they are going to piss that away on election day? I know a lot of people here want Romney but I would be shocked, SHOCKED if Obama loses.
Personally, I hope for a long, drawn out fight over Ohio that will implode the markets, but I'm just talkin' my book.
A lot of people here want Romney? A lot of people here a fucking retards then....
People are all over the map on ZH. The site skews center right - but there are plenty of differing opinions. Personally, I don't think it makes a difference. Unless the DNC or GOP manage a super majority sweep nothing will change - same shit, different day.
Center Right?????
You have to be joking....
Based on a long time, admittedly cursory study of comment voting, Romney would win in a landslide 70-30.... Ron Paul would take 85% of the vote....
Unless you think RP and MR are center right....
Wait, I thought Romney was the democrat and Obama was the republican.
Obama = massive war spending, many wars, budget cuts to WIC and Head Start, NDAA....
Romney = the blue print for the HC bill, pro-choice, tax increases on the 47% who "don't pay taxes"....
Yeah, something like that...
but you do agree that Mittens would clean the table with "the colored guy" if ZH was the voting universe?
Yes.
Colored guy? John Boehner? John can't help the color of his skin...he was tanned that way.
I'm an American and all y'all are fixin' to make my head explode!
Just point out the evil-doer and let's get 'er done!
'W', is that you? Endorse Romney today, will you?
On aggregate yes, center right (imho). More left leaning folks on ZH than many realize. I agree with Ron Paul getting the overwelming vote here - I'd like to see Paul win for the simple joy scaring the crap out of TPTB.
The Left here used to have a name, "Eisenhower Republicans".....
Hmmm... actually, I kinda liked Eisenhower. I thought he was a stand up guy and did his best in a difficult time.
I don't think he ever did stand up.
Robin Williams - now there's a comedian.
He confused Johnathan Winters with Eisenhower... a natural mistake and quite understandable...
Yes he did, history will be kinder and kinder to him as years pass...
Making the rounds on Tuesday was a report on Cincinnati.com showing Mitt Romney with an early lead over Barack Obama. One problem — it was a mock page, and in fact, results haven’t even been tabulated yet. The newspaper has apologized.
John Brady of R.J. O’Brien and Associates said the news nonetheless may have moved stocks. “Hearing this is responsible for a bid in equities. Please handle with care, as it will be a day (or 2, 3?) of tape bombs.”
They get tired of just reporting the news, so they start inventing it.
Paging Roger Ailes....
Seriously, where do you think stories of non-union utility workers getting turned back at first N.J, then LIPA start?
I would love to see a repub senate Obama wins gets impeached... then wierd uncle gets impeached...Boener becomes pres and civil war ignites. Only a true revolution will fix this f'd up country.
Boehner is a douchebag as well. He has to go
jim cramer is a douche bag, there i said it
booyah douche nozzle booyah
I challenge you to find anyone not employed by CNBC or drooling in a bucket that does not think Cramer is a "douche bag"...
The only person who thinks Cramer is great is Cramer. Same can be said of our delusional friend Trump.
Another NBC employee? Jus' sayin'.
Anyone at NBCUniversal would be suspect. Of course, there is no love loss between Santelli and Cramer - which is another reason to love Rick.
Cramer: "Yea, what?!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG3Q26mthgk
An annoying douche bag that should be in jail.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Akp9fDpt-hY&feature=related
I'm Morgan Freeman and I endorse calling people a douche bag. Cause sometimes "Jerk" just isn't strong enough and "fuck-off" is way too much! I"m Morgan Freeman and endorsed thiz.
I'm on the Other Side; so ya'll can go F**k Off!
This is ZH, you can actually type the words "Fuck Off" and you won't get spanked for it.
Typing the contraction for "you all" as "ya'll", on the other hand...for that y'all need some bitch slapping.
"The only sense in which it matters to us is in how the markets might react in the short term to the outcome."
... truth, bitchez ... SHAME TOO - same agenda, different mask. ... read that hell-a-prompter biatch.
OBAMA WINS.
Prediction Markets Decided For Obama Months Ago...
http://stks.co/gESo
The girlfriend noted that I did wake up this morning with a huge election....
That tape of "Little Abbey" was cut short. When she starts crying, her mother asks her if she'd like George W. Bush instead. At that point "Little Abbey" smiles and repeats three times "I want George Bush".
Great article, thanks!
In Europe, education is bend over backwards to provide proof that socialism is the better philosophy and the European mind is taught to be distrustful of the US capitalist system. Europeans therefore have as much understanding of the inner workings of the US system as Americans have of the European system. In addition the European MSM as this quoted Spiegel article emphasises does all within its power to enforce the idea that socialism is the best political system. Many politicians ruling today have proven links in their past with communism, when the Berlin wall came down and the USSR collapsed they could not do anything else than admit defeat of their political ideas. Defeat however did not sit well with these people, they have continued and have allowed their political few to come to the surface and in the EU set up you can clearly recognize a gulag type of setup.
A few years back I ran into a comment from a Russian who pointed out that the EU had all the traditional tokens of a communism state and pointed out that the road it was on will lead to the same fate as the USSR. He was right and as former victim of communism far better able to recognize the rise of powers he had witnessed failing in his own live.
Asking an average European why they are so in favour of Obama winning will yield the same type of silly replies as the video showed here on ZH about a democrats convention where a question was asked if it would be a good idea to make a law that would criminalise profit making by companies. Most people in the EU simply have no clue at all they are just happy Obama wins because the msm has told them it would be a good thing.
I am happy Obama wins, because I want all the captains in the world to have socialist sympathies when this system breaks down, which it will, because that may be the end of this deprecated utterly ridiculous philosophy that is destroying the future of the children in this world.
a few generalizations too many for my taste. You give me the impression that your grasp of "socialism" as a concept is not that strong.
particularly this "...the EU had all the traditional tokens of a communism state" is a weak, starting with the fact that the EU is not a country, not a nation and not a state.
and where did you get this breathless "...it would be a good idea to make a law that would criminalise profit making by companies"?
I agree, I'm Dutch and not Europian, Von Rompuy and Barosso (Both were elected in a very democratic way they were both elected by their comrades in the EU parliament) would disagree with you. However you are right that I am generalising.
Hayek explained socialism as follows "Socialism means unambiguously the nationalization of the means of production and the central economic planning which this made possible and necessary" p.54 the road to serfdom Preface to the 1976 edition. He further writes "Socialism has come to mean chiefly the extensive redistribution of incomes through taxation and the institutions of welfare state."
These are just extracts of the meaning of socialism. If you can provide me with a better definition to educate me, please be my guest. There are as many definitions of socialism as there are prophets of this philosophy but at the end of the day this is what socialism and every off spring philosophy intends as Churchill said the equal sharing of misery.
The question concerning making laws against profit was raised by an interviewer at a convention of democrats. He was obviously not serious although the answers extracted from the visitors of the conventions where and all showed in the clip thought it an excellent idea. I couldn't retrieve it quickly and unfortunately do not have the time right now to search for it. It was hilarious.
I've got here my favourite definition of capitalism 2955225 and I follow there that socialism is just "letting you keep less of it". I like Churchill's quip, though.
IMO in the scala from Pure Anarcho-Capitalism (0%) to Total Communism (100%) you can express Socialism in percentages.
Pls remember that Gollum and Fatso are appointees of the Council. Way better this way, IMHO.
Jim Cramer is an idiot. Worse than that, he is a sycophantic ass kisser that is obviously schizophrenic. Just watch his actions as he goes through his patter on the tube. How this fool got his own TV show recommending stocks is beyond me.