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Guest Post: A Final Selection Day Update

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

A Close Race?

Predictions regarding the election outcome are all over the place. Dennis Gartman for instance thinks that 'Romney will win quite handily'. While this opinion may be largely informed by wishful thinking in this case, there are two interesting points made by Gartman. One concerns poll errors, something we have previously discussed in the context of the 1948 election, which was a pretty glaring failure of the polls. According to Gartman:

"First, he uses the the 1980 election as an example where Carter had a 2-3% point lead over Gov. Reagan. Carter was expected to win the race, but he did not."

If this is meant to illustrate the general principle that polls can be in error, then fair enough. If it is meant to equate Obama with Carter and Romney with Reagan, it is way off the mark. Just as a reminder: the 1980 election took place at the tail end of an inflationary economic crisis and Carter had to fend off a democratic challenger for the nomination (Ted Kennedy), who viciously attacked him for eight months. In addition there was of course the Iran hostage crisis and the botched rescue attempt, which hurt Carter's reelection chances immensely.

It goes without saying that Romney is no Reagan.

Another point made by Gartman concerns the Bradley (or Wilder) effect, which we had not heard of before. Apparently this is a kind of 'political correctness effect'  (i.e., it is not motivated by racism, but by the fear of people that they might be seen as racist). It seems though that this effect may have been far greater in the 1980's when it was first posited to exist. Nowadays people are probably generally more relaxed about the race of political candidates.

“Gartman also refers to the Bradley/Wilder Effect, a theory where non-white candidates do better in the polls than the final election results show.” 

Jim Cramer is taking the exact opposite view from Gartman's, expecting a 'landslide' victory for Obama. Of course Cramer wouldn't be Cramer if his forecast didn't stand out for being a bit extreme.

The Princeton election consortium's latest update of the meta-analysis of the  electoral vote count on the eve of the election continues to predict an Obama victory as well, but clearly the race is getting tighter. The median estimator has dropped to the lower end of the 'strike zone' (a 68% confidence interval of probable outcomes based on today's polls).

 

According to the PEC's 'meta-analysis', Obama still enjoys a fairly comfortable margin, but it is not as big as it once used to be.

 

Intrade odds look fairly good for Obama, although they actually should be far higher this close to the election if traders were to hew more closely to what the analysis of the polls reflects. As Sam Wang of Princeton explains here, the election contracts traded at intrade suffer from inefficiencies that are likely due to the political biases of traders.

 

Obama's intrade odds are now at 65.8%, but they should actually be far higher based on the meta-margin analysis.

 

Of course the time when intrade bets pay off best is when the majority of traders turns out to be completely wrong and one has taken the other side of the trade. The rational trade in this case would be to buy the contract, but the bigger pay-off would result if one sold it short and it turns out on election day that the polls had it wrong. It would be a chance for Mr. Gartman to swing for the fences.

 

An Election Already Lost

If you want to get an impression of how some Europeans see the US and how deeply ingrained the socialist mentality is in Europe, we point you to an article in Der Spiegel, colorfully entitled 'America has already lost Tuesday's election'. The author opines that the 'outcome of the election won't matter to Europe', which is fair enough – it won't matter to anyone, after all. The only sense in which it matters to us is in how the markets might react in the short term to the outcome.

However, the author's theory that 'total capitalism' rules America and that it will 'destroy the country' is so utterly ridiculous as to almost leave one speechless. To equate the statist system that is in in place in the US of today with 'capitalism', much less 'total capitalism', is well beyond ridiculous. One might perhaps call it 'crony capitalism', but the problem with using such definitions is that they obscure the true meaning of the term capitalism. 'Crony capitalism' is a term that is employed as a euphemism for the more precise 'fascism', for fear that the latter might sound too extreme. The author of the Spiegel article informs us that the 'government is powerless in the US', an assertion that would probably induce slack-jawed amazement in most US citizens. 

As George Reismann reminded us back in 2008:

“Under laissez-faire capitalism, the state consists essentially just of a police force, law courts, and a national defense establishment, which deter and combat those who initiate the use of physical force. And nothing more.”

 

“[...] the politico-economic system of the United States today is so far removed from laissez-faire capitalism that it is closer to the system of a police state. The ability of the media to ignore all of the massive government interference that exists today and to characterize our present economic system as one of laissez faire and economic freedom marks it as, if not profoundly dishonest, then as nothing less than delusional.

In Europe many people are more than just delusional regarding this particular point. There is unfortunately no constituency for economic freedom in most of Europe. Statism is too deeply ingrained (an exception to this rule are a number of former Eastern Bloc countries, where many people have developed an abiding hatred of the State due to suffering under communism's yoke for decades). There is however one point which the 'Spiegel' author gets right, namely his characterization of the stance of the two major US political parties and their candidates on foreign policy. He inter alia writes:

“In any case, it is wrong to characterize Republicans as the party of warmongers and Democrats as the party of peace.”

He has certainly got that right – as Justin Raimondo of anti-war.com often stresses, one can regard the two parties as the two faces of the same party, which he simply refers to as the 'war party'.

Speaking of statism, we want to refer readers to an excellent article at 'The Agitator', entitled 'Reminder: The Media Isn't Liberal, It's Statist'. The author shows by means of a few examples that it is actually incorrect to simply accuse the mainstream media of a 'liberal' (i.e., left-wing) bias, when the real problem is their utterly vicious statism, which can of course express itself in their  reportage of both left-wing and right-wing causes. The examples he brings bring this point home in rather glaring fashion.

 

Bring Back Her Smile

Finally, there is at least one thing the end of the election circus will achieve: it will bring back little Abby's smile. She has simply had enough of the two clowns – they have driven her to shed desperate tears of frustration:

 

Little Abby is really tired of hearing about Obama and Romney

 

Also, Barton Hinkle of the Richmond Times-Dispatch reminds us 'Why the wrong side absolutely must not win'.

 

 

Nobody is somebody we could vote for in good conscience.
Nobody cares and tells the truth, that should be good enough for us. 
 


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Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

What does Goldman's flow desk recommend?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

The Progressives leave nothing to chance.....

 

It only takes $26 to hack a voting machine

 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44706301/ns/technology_and_science-security/t/it-only-takes-hack-voting-machine/

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

The Only Way We Lose Win Is Through Fraud

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuTQqm1C99g

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

HHHYYYYEEEEAAHHHH!!!!

 

By the way, does it strike anyone else as odd that the nation collectively spends billions of dollars on campaign races, yet we have old, half-dead volunteer grandmas running our polling stations?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Whisper rumor that The Bernank is boldly swaggering around 33 Liberty Street, raiding candy dishes and flirting with the cleaning lady. As he grows more confident of a pending Obama victory, he's even insisting that staff address him as Buzz Lightyear.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment macholatte
Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

and the best part.......... impossible to audit.  NO PAPER TRAIL

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

 

 

New Black Panthers back at Philly voting site

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/new-black-panthers-back-at-ph...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Why are they always wearing blac...oh, I get it now!

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

No....not really

They can't find the gold that was under the trade centers....or Gaddafi's.....or anyone else's apparently

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

In a close race like this result will be determined by hacked electronic polling machines.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Subverting the lawfully established line of succession of the State, used to be High Treason. Art 3 Sec 3 ended that notion in the US along with Corruption of Blood. But the crime and punishment could be re-introduced with a simple act of Congress under a different legal nomenclature.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment malikai
Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

America:  Beacon of Democracy!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Not having my glasses on I first read your comment as "Bacon of Democracy"

Which notice still works.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

At this point I'd just take bacon and call it a day.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

For when you're rearry, REARRY bored...

~~~

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Nothing will change as a result of this election or the political process.  Things will however revert to the mean in spectacular fashion:

               - Gold, the money of kings

               - Silver, the money of gentlemen

               - Copper, the money of beggars

               - Paper, the money of con men

               - Debt, the money of slaves

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Today's UST auction was a success!  We did it!  We bought one more day for the MIC to keep that oil flowing from the Mid-East!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Mind if I steal your list from time to time?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Let's just short the coal sector and let the Choomer win.  This election is starting to make me cry like a little girl.  

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Cramer = extremely WRONG, not just "extreme".

As for no "hostage crisis", well we're ALL being held hostage.  So how is this different again?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Nobody comin' to rescue us...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

"nobody" is your friend.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I'm taking great comfort in Cramer's expressed view. - Ned

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Cow
Tue, 11/06/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

No, that's "Ned the Bull", so you'd be safe.

- Ned

{Not that there's anything wrong with that.}

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Polls: how to ... influence people.

You can't manipulate an election where the polls show a wide margin between candidates.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Helix6
Helix6's picture

Yes, but the margin is not wide in quite a few key states.  Thus election fraud has the cover of plausible deniability in these states.  And these states will determine the outcome of the election.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Two cheeks of the same ass.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's all about free, open, and honest markets, which none of us have ever known.  If we can get back to that, the sky's the limit.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Princeton election consortium's latest update of the meta-analysis of the  electoral vote count on the eve of the election continues to predict an Obama victory:

They have been predicting an Obama victory with a certainty of 100% since yesterday:

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 99.2%, Bayesian Prediction 100.0%

http://election.princeton.edu/

The massive inflation with an Obama victory will explain the big move in gold today. $2000 gold by December and at least $40 silver by inauguration.

 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Surely you do not mean to suggest that Romeny would turn off the printers?

Gold is up, but not because of the outcome of the election. I think more likely that the "go easy on the prining" window is about to close only because the election season is at an end, and whoever ends up president will get a visit from The Fed with "recommendations" on how hard to lean on CNTL-P. And it won't be "lightly and with due considerations".

Next week they are going to print fiat like mo'fos.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Buying an ounce of gold is like 100 votes for Ron Paul.  That is the only way to take down these motherfuckers.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

What does the NAR and BLS forecast?

pods

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

My wife and I are arguing today. I'm voting for no one by not going to the polls at all and she wants to go stand in line to vote for "None of the Above." So I'm thinking, "Why do I always want to do things the easy way and you always have to do things in such a way that they are as big of a pain in the ass as possible?" And then it became about not just voting, but life in general.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Simplify things.
Cut her tongue out and break her fingers. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Wraithlord
Wraithlord's picture

Come now, how will she make him a sandwich with broken fingers?

 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

May I just say that your tactic, while possibly true, was not very wise on your part.  Now you'll have to live with it.

:/

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Helix6
Helix6's picture

Ah, but at least she cares enough to register her non-vote.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm waiting for the swimsuit competition before casting my vote...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I did that with Bush and Gore. I STILL have nightmares.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

Sounds like Gartman is a racist... What a clown, those are the two reasons he gives for Romney winning? Someone should tell this guy to stop eating crack for breakfast....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

Vote me down you fucking moron Romney supporters.... You are all a bunch of idiots...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

I down-voted you and I wrote in Ron Paul this morning.  So what's my label, then?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

 

Why so upset that he gave reasons why he thinks Romney will win?  He didn't give reasons why you should vote for him.  Jim Cramer took the opposite stance, but no problem with him?  Are you so bellicose because Gartment didn't choose your color team?

 

Down arrow for believing there is a choice. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Election prediction:  we lose.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

And everyone else besides the asshole Democrats....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

The best indicator I have ever know for anything is a free market. And yes there is a free market on who will will the presidency.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp

Intrade 70% Obama, 30% Romney.

$6.5m real money traded.

Press and partisans have their own motivations for saying its close. Fact is it isn't close.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

Exactly, only idiots and morons who watch TV think Romney is going to win...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You can narrow it down,  the Romneyites  are limited to being a subset  of those that watch Fox, Fox Business, The Military Channel and/or CNBC...

 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Helix6
Helix6's picture

The problem with "free markets" is that capitalists hate them and will do watever it takes to eliminate their competition.  I believe we're living between the provebial rock and a hard place here.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

InTrade assigned a 70% chance that the health care mandate would be struck down as unconstitutional the morning of the ruling.  They were wrong.

InTrade is very good, but it is not perfect, and because it's such a thin market, it can be pushed around pretty easily.  You want a deeper market?  Check out hospital stocks like CYH, HCA and THC, which are all down 5-6% today in an up market, pointing to a Romney victory (changes to the ACA would presumably mean Medicare doesn't pick up the hospital's bills as they will under current legislation which Obama won't change).  Of course, that could just be reflecting that the race is more of a coin flip after those stocks ran up the last few days, indicating an Obama victory.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

In a previous life. I worked for a Statistics department. A few profs would "consult" on upcoming elections for a major media. Based on impartial, honest, and completely unbiased analysis, they could accuratllyl call an election 7-10 days out.  They were accurate 90+% of the time. The last few weeks have been circus with asshole spouting opinion instead of fact. Pity.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

They have been ramping the market and spinning employment numbers endlessly - you think they are going to piss that away on election day? I know a lot of people here want Romney but I would be shocked, SHOCKED if Obama loses.

Personally, I hope for a long, drawn out fight over Ohio that will implode the markets, but I'm just talkin' my book.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

A lot of people here want Romney? A lot of people here a fucking retards then....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

People are all over the map on ZH. The site skews center right - but there are plenty of differing opinions. Personally, I don't think it makes a difference. Unless the DNC or GOP manage a super majority sweep nothing will change - same shit, different day.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Center Right?????

You have to be joking....

Based on a long time, admittedly cursory study of comment voting, Romney would win in a landslide 70-30.... Ron Paul would take 85% of the vote....

Unless you think RP and MR are center right.... 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Wait, I thought Romney was the democrat and Obama was the republican.

Obama = massive war spending, many wars, budget cuts to WIC and Head Start, NDAA....

Romney = the blue print for the HC bill, pro-choice, tax increases on the 47% who "don't pay taxes"....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, something like that...

but you do agree that Mittens would clean the table with "the colored guy" if ZH was the voting universe?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Colored guy? John Boehner? John can't help the color of his skin...he was tanned that way.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm an American and all y'all are fixin' to make my head explode!

Just point out the evil-doer and let's get 'er done!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

'W', is that you?  Endorse Romney today, will you?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

On aggregate yes, center right (imho). More left leaning folks on ZH than many realize.  I agree with Ron Paul getting the overwelming vote here - I'd like to see Paul win for the simple joy scaring the crap out of TPTB.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The Left here used to have a name, "Eisenhower Republicans".....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Helix6
Helix6's picture

Hmmm... actually, I kinda liked Eisenhower. I thought he was a stand up guy and did his best in a difficult time.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't think he ever did stand up.

Robin Williams - now there's a comedian.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

He confused Johnathan Winters with Eisenhower... a natural mistake and quite understandable...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes he did, history will be kinder and kinder to him as years pass...

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture


Making the rounds on Tuesday was a report on Cincinnati.com showing Mitt Romney with an early lead over Barack Obama. One problem — it was a mock page, and in fact, results haven’t even been tabulated yet. The newspaper has apologized.

John Brady of R.J. O’Brien and Associates said the news nonetheless may have moved stocks. “Hearing this is responsible for a bid in equities. Please handle with care, as it will be a day (or 2, 3?) of tape bombs.”

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

They get tired of just reporting the news, so they start inventing it.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Paging Roger Ailes....

Seriously, where do you think stories of non-union utility workers getting turned back at first N.J, then LIPA start?

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

I would love to see a repub senate Obama wins gets impeached... then wierd uncle gets impeached...Boener becomes pres and civil war ignites.  Only a true revolution will fix this f'd up country.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Cow
Cow's picture

Boehner is a douchebag as well.  He has to go

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

jim cramer is a douche bag, there i said it

booyah douche nozzle booyah

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I challenge you to find anyone not employed by CNBC or drooling in a bucket that does not think Cramer is a "douche bag"...

The only person who thinks Cramer is great is Cramer. Same can be said of our delusional friend Trump.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Another NBC employee?  Jus' sayin'.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Anyone at NBCUniversal would be suspect. Of course, there is no love loss between Santelli and Cramer - which is another reason to love Rick.

Cramer: "Yea, what?!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG3Q26mthgk

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

An annoying douche bag that should be in jail.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Akp9fDpt-hY&feature=related

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

I'm Morgan Freeman and I endorse calling people a douche bag. Cause sometimes "Jerk" just isn't strong enough and "fuck-off" is way too much!  I"m Morgan Freeman and endorsed thiz.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment koncaswatch
koncaswatch's picture

I'm on the Other Side; so ya'll can go F**k Off!

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

This is ZH, you can actually type the words "Fuck Off" and you won't get spanked for it.

Typing the contraction for "you all" as "ya'll", on the other hand...for that y'all need some bitch slapping. 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment WarPony
WarPony's picture

"The only sense in which it matters to us is in how the markets might react in the short term to the outcome."

... truth, bitchez ... SHAME TOO - same agenda, different mask.  ... read that hell-a-prompter biatch.

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

OBAMA WINS.

Prediction Markets Decided For Obama Months Ago...

http://stks.co/gESo

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The girlfriend noted that I did wake up this morning with a huge election....

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

That tape of "Little Abbey" was cut short.  When she starts crying, her mother asks her if she'd like George W. Bush instead.  At that point "Little Abbey" smiles and repeats three times "I want George Bush". 

Tue, 11/06/2012 - 23:17 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Great article, thanks!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:20 | Link to Comment Fort
Fort's picture

In Europe, education is bend over backwards to provide proof that socialism is the better philosophy and the European mind is taught to be distrustful of the US capitalist system. Europeans therefore have as much understanding of the inner workings of the US system as Americans have of the European system. In addition the European MSM as this quoted Spiegel article emphasises does all within its power to enforce the idea that socialism is the best political system. Many politicians ruling today have proven links in their past with communism, when the Berlin wall came down and the USSR collapsed they could not do anything else than admit defeat of their political ideas. Defeat however did not sit well with these people, they have continued and have allowed their political few to come to the surface and in the EU set up you can clearly recognize a gulag type of setup.

A few years back I ran into a comment from a Russian who pointed out that the EU had all the traditional tokens of a communism state and pointed out that the road it was on will lead to the same fate as the USSR. He was right and as former victim of communism far better able to recognize the rise of powers he had witnessed failing in his own live.

Asking an average European why they are so in favour of Obama winning will yield the same type of silly replies as the video showed here on ZH about a democrats convention where a question was asked if it would be a good idea to make a law that would criminalise profit making by companies. Most people in the EU simply have no clue at all they are just happy Obama wins because the msm has told them it would be a good thing.

I am happy Obama wins, because I want all the captains in the world to have socialist sympathies when this system breaks down, which it will, because that may be the end of this deprecated utterly ridiculous philosophy that is destroying the future of the children in this world.

 

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:44 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

a few generalizations too many for my taste. You give me the impression that your grasp of "socialism" as a concept is not that strong.

particularly this "...the EU had all the traditional tokens of a communism state" is a weak, starting with the fact that the EU is not a country, not a nation and notstate.

and where did you get this breathless "...it would be a good idea to make a law that would criminalise profit making by companies"?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Fort
Fort's picture

I agree, I'm Dutch and not Europian, Von Rompuy and Barosso (Both were elected in a very democratic way they were both elected by their comrades in the EU parliament) would disagree with you. However you are right that I am generalising.

Hayek explained socialism as follows "Socialism means unambiguously the nationalization of the means of production and the central economic planning which this made possible and necessary" p.54 the road to serfdom Preface to the 1976 edition. He further writes "Socialism has come to mean chiefly the extensive redistribution of incomes through taxation and the institutions of welfare state."

These are just extracts of the meaning of socialism. If you can provide me with a better definition to educate me, please be my guest. There are as many definitions of socialism as there are prophets of this philosophy but at the end of the day this is what socialism and every off spring philosophy intends as Churchill said the equal sharing of misery.

The question concerning making laws against profit was raised by an interviewer at a convention of democrats. He was obviously not serious although the answers extracted from the visitors of the conventions where and all showed in the clip thought it an excellent idea. I couldn't retrieve it quickly and unfortunately do not have the time right now to search for it. It was hilarious.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I've got here my favourite definition of capitalism 2955225 and I follow there that socialism is just "letting you keep less of it". I like Churchill's quip, though.

IMO in the scala from Pure Anarcho-Capitalism (0%) to Total Communism (100%) you can express Socialism in percentages.

Pls remember that Gollum and Fatso are appointees of the Council. Way better this way, IMHO.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

Jim Cramer is an idiot. Worse than that, he is a sycophantic ass kisser that is obviously schizophrenic. Just watch his actions as he goes through his patter on the tube. How this fool got his own TV show recommending stocks is beyond me. 

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