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The Inefficient (And Delayed) Market Ramp Explained
While little makes sense any more in the New Bizarro Market normal, Dow Jones believes it may have stumbled upon one "reason" for the stung like a bee 11:30 am market ramp. Markets proved once again that they are far from the paragon of efficiency that so many prefer to proclaim - bending their movements to the headline of the day to prove one's point. Today was a perfect example. The mysterious rampapalooza - which talking heads proclaimed must be due to something that means every mom-and-pop should be all-in - seems to be a delayed and reflexive reaction to a erroneous Ohio vote-count that was in favor of Romney. As the chart below shows, the release on Cincinnati.com of 'dummy data' which showed Romney in a surprising lead from early-voting spurred a bond-rally reaction (against consensus implications). Equities and Gold did not react, but soon after it was refuted (as dummy data) bonds 'topped' and as they sold back off to 'new normal' pro-Obama status quo so Stocks and Gold piggy-backed all the way up to pre-NFP levels. Efficiency at its best...Total no news = 10 S&P points
The 'dummy vote' reaction timeline...
- 1045ET data released - bonds rally BUT stocks/gold do not move
- 1100ET 'dummy data' refuted - bonds still rallying and stocks/gold not impressed
- 1108ET ZeroHedge tweets confirmation - bonds have momentum
-
The table of early Ohio tabulated votes was not a table of early Ohio tabulated votes. Move along m.cincinnati.com/enquirertopnew…
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 6, 2012
- 1125ET Market realizes - Bonds reverse quickly and stocks/gold piggy-back
- 1245ET Markets converge at pre-NFP levels - as if nothing happened - no news (i.e. news refuted) and we hold 10 extra points in the S&P, $20 in Gold, and 4bps in TSYs
Of course - ths standard European close ramp is just as likely the reason but efficient it is not...
It does somewhat suggest that the market's consensus view on Bonds reaction to Romney win is incorrect though...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Gotta love the hype - a Reuters headline suggested the markets were gapping up because there will be no more uncertainty tomorrow... but still had no idea who was going to win..
shakes head.
Fucking WTI is flying like a psychotic bat out of hell: did Israel bomb Iran or something?
Level 3 CFA certification: Markets are efficient.
And if that's true why would anybody ever need a CFA charter just to index stocks or trade on Material Non-Public Inside Information.
Oh... perceptions again...
Cue some dumbshit on CNBS pulling some scenario out of his ass about the move being the result of "investors bargain hunting"
It does somewhat suggest that the market's consensus view on Bonds reaction to Romney win is incorrect though...
Rule #1 of trading: The first move is always the wrong move.
Must be all that Rombium. Note the bizzarre diverg from Friday through Yesterday in WTI. That was treasuries/s&p with a bad case of turrettes.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/11/06/crude/
These are The Bernank'd markets.
Good luck muppets.
Bernanke this shit. I'm gonna go get a Bernanken' beer.
Oh, and BERNANKE YOU Bernanke.
Bernanke-A man!
All the markets are a bunch of shit , any small false headlines send markets rallying crazily- while actual true bearish stats only send markets down a little.
this is fucked
Let the voting algorithms decide. Humans are too irrational.
The algos didn't need to take a break to go to the polls...they just keep on keepin on -- rain, snow, sleet or whatever nothing will keep them back.
Throw in a few number twos and all hell would break loose...
That's the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia formation... Must mean something...
Or maybe Kaminsky just needs an excuse for getting gored by the bull.
You really hate him - he run over your dog or something?
Anyone who gets on TV and screams sell like his hair is on fire to scare people, after QE3 is announced, the way he did, is deserving of ridicule. That is about as Cramer as you can get.
I used to like Kaminsky but it seems he's too volatile to be of any value. Just the most trivial event pushes him over the edge. Not that I have any, but I wouldn't let him manage my money.
Oh bother. I think I liked the German "econ bomb" better. That I can get my head around. Phoney vote tallies...hell, with Florida being Florida, we could get this shit for another couple of months.
sunny
Republicans are using the same team players that they used against Paul. Yeah well look out here comes Roseanne Barr.
May the biggest fraud win!!! hahah
Note to Romney - This is why you should never talk shit about Ben Bernanke, the King of the Universe, Rider of Unicorns, Dreamer of Dreams.
"Rider of Unicorns"... I enjoyed that.
Rejoice... I will... when the unicorn 'rides' Bernanke from his 6...
Hehheh hehe he, He said market, he he
images
The market ramped because there is going to be money printing from here to eternity.
That was never in question.
Exactly.
there r no markets.....just fraud and manipulation...
enter the casino...
exit with nothing....
Silver i started accumulating many years ago still looks the same as it did back then....
Pretty, and in my hands.....
fucking bankers kiss my ass........
It doesn't matter who wins, somehow this market will continue to go higher. If Romney wins, it will be spun as good for business, Wall St, fiscal cliff, etc., so we rally. If Obama wins, good for continued QE with Bernank, so we rally. It's all bullshit.
Meanwhile in Europe: ....tick, tick, tick...BOOM
Where's the love for Japan?! Cmon, a watched pot never boils.
like i said...fade this fucking crooked pig. its one big fucking trap on low volume.
"Equities and Gold did not react . . "
Really? - Gold up $30 -Can't wait until it does react . . . Bitchez (I believe is the correct term)
It is simply a delusional hope from Primary Dealers trading desks that any possible suckers could still be left in the market like pensioners, retail or bonafide speculators. It's got nothing to do with elections.
They'll do a ramp up over and over and over and over and over and over with one and one and one goal only:
HOPE FOR SUCKERS TO ARRIVE.
1 or more primary dealers are so deep in shit (stocks) that the only choice they have it to buy, buy, buy and only buy.
Thus there are only two options left regardless of who wins the elections:
1) Market moving up on low volume or ramp ups like this
2) 2000 dow points collapse a day for 5 days in a row.
Reason: There are no buyers and 1 or more primary dealers have a lot of rotten tomatoes (stocks) to throw away.
George Carlin on the illusion of choice...
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/125491.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
Where ever you are rest in peace.
10y, 30y, and Eurobund.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/11/06/paper-3/
Angry white men,
Market is up because it's going to be Obama and Ben remains in charge. Isn't Ben the one that drives the stock market? Many here have said so.
Market is 'up' to where its been 5 times in the last few months? Gee celebrate.
OBAMA WINS.
Prediction Markets Decided For Obama Months Ago...
http://stks.co/gESo
What actually happened was that Benny recalled money from the banks because they are not lending it out and used those funds to BUY, BUY, BUY based on Krammer spouting off about the Obummer being re-elected. Socialists have to stick together, ya know.
So at best we're totaly screwed so good news. OK, got it.
IMO any news is irrelevant. Whoever gets elected is irrelevant as far as stock market is concerned.
This is deep despair from 'suckering desks' of primary dealers. A lot of them have been fired so far and a lot more are about to be fired.
it did make sense for traders using technical analysis, and therefore also to robots who use the same rules, even tho probably carried to an extreme...
Tyler, just tell us when to start shorting, and we will be OK again.
rogue-bot market where what little human input there is gets heavily influenced by cocaine, stoli and LCD soundsytsem.
"bonds 'topped' and as they sold back off to 'new normal'"
BS. That move in bonds was 2 basis points. Something else moved the mkts, it's just not clear what it was.
No news = best news ever, and as for the hindsight market "experts", who claim the pre-dump-pump is due to Romney/Obama lead = fuck every single one of them who becomes an expert after the fact by ascribing any fatuous vagueness for whatever bot-driven dark pool-frontrunning, in this charade of a market.
And fuck whoever pumped crude to today's vertexes, just because the drone-like populace throws pieces of paper at its illusroy choice.
This is nothing more than Ben and his friends on WS pumping the markets to squeeze out any more Obama votes they can muster. The markets will be down Wed.
Don't get it, how is Romney better for markets than Obama? If Romney said he would replace Bernanke, then this should be bad news for the markets. If Romney adopted any kind of austerity, it would mean a deflation wave surely not favorable for stocks.
Yo Thought Crim - your above analysis is simplistic. Replace Bernanke, adopt Fed spending austerity, lower tax rates, repeal ObamaCare, allow cUS companies to repatriate their overseas profits w/o double taxation (which currently exists).
Mkts will see that the $$ are being put into the hands of individuals rather than Federal czars and crony Solyndra like projects.
All the liquidity in the system now is trapped in the banks. A clear economic plan would free that capital to the private (vs public or crony) business.
Rates would probably rise, but in response to an inflation threat given the surge of $$ into private hands.
Yes, higher rates would clip housing (but that market is still way over priced).
In a nut shell, Romney's policies would bring equilibrium back to money markets, eventually. And thats all that the market needs.
Obama and Bernanke have been complete and udder failures.
Oh yeh..one other thing Fuck you Benranke! Fuck you MSM!
For those keeping score.....Here's how the stock market has fared in other recent election days:
So it's pretty random, in other words.
........................ESF........
I can't wait to see the European markets later. The economic news last night was horrific! But hey Spain and Italy printed good "tier2" PMI numbers. No need to pay attention to that [-3.3%] German factory order miss, and that every other statistic was in the red.
No need to pay attention to Greece about to blow up , or funding problems for Spain, and soon to be [Italy& France], which will no doubt inflame the populations of both countries. No need to worry about shitty Q-3earnings numbers, and Q-4 downward revenue guidance revisions.
It's all good, because soon we will have a new King in NARNIA... (or maybe not...)