Next Steps: Fiscal Cliff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Tonight it's all Obama-corns and Biden-faeries but the market is already 'adjusting' to the new old new normal regime. Unfortunately in 'Obama II - This Time Its Different' the odds of going over the Fiscal Cliff just got real. As we noted here (and in more detail here and here), there is now a 55% chance we go over the cliff (given the status quo of no compromise) and the market is a long way from pricing that kind of GDP shock...

 

 

 

As for what comes next, here's a hint: "Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario"


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Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:46 | 2954407 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

And it's right to business no honeymoon.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:51 | 2954446 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Print that shit up.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:59 | 2954489 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I see no real alternative to GOLD.

The American people have chosen to be the Free Shit Empire.

 

Prepare accordingly.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:01 | 2954497 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

55% going over in this alter-bizzaro-nether-ponzi planet is the equivalent of not going over by 110%. 

the calculus is 10x hopium for any scintilla of reality x 2.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954526 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

silver platinum palladium bitchez.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:07 | 2954554 old naughty
old naughty's picture

 Right on cue, as per play books.

Top-side and under-side.

Falling they go.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:12 | 2954586 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

There is no fiscal "cliff"...it's already in the rear-view mirror. The DemoncanRepublicrat Party will go right on taxing X, spending 1.5 X, and monetizing the dif until the dollar collapses. Excellent. Then we go to bullets, not ballots. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:40 | 2955161 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Buy gold like it's water.

 

It's everyone for themselves now amigos.....good luck.

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:02 | 2955409 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

My affordable PM plan are cans of beans.

Security -wise I live amongst elderly liberals with 20yo Volvo 240's and Priuses. One golf club and I'm king of da'hood!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:33 | 2954685 mick68
mick68's picture

I'm glad Obama won. Romney camp treated Ron Paul supporters like shit, thought they could win without them. Wrong!

Now the sheeple who voted for Obama will lose their jobs and have nobody to blame but the guy they voted for. Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame.  All good.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:45 | 2954739 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Totally agree. They rather have Obama than Ron Paul to protect their military welfare
It needs to crumble then we can break away from world central banking, make a deal with Hugo like we did with the Saudis, run his mess of a country and his oil, sell off middle east assets to settle debt, and pool the Americas together.. And yes let Israel protect their holy dirt on their own.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:21 | 2954951 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

love those military welfare queens always down voting whenever their free ride gets questioned...  yet they want to cut out everything else.   sick fucks

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:41 | 2956134 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Those aren't the MIC welfare queens.  They're the ADL volunteers, the Jooze.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 15:02 | 2957367 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Duly noted

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:58 | 2954777 ACP
ACP's picture

ONWARD TO OBLIVION!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:21 | 2954835 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

FORWARD SOVIET!

Until the weight of the ponderous beast is sucked under in its own tar pit of debt and entitlement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:44 | 2955168 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dudes don't feel bad...even Ron Paul couldn't stop Hitler. He was just a kid back then.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:34 | 2954990 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Unfortunately, that's not the way history is written.  There is no tally of who sat on their couch and withheld their vote.  Meanwhile it looks like the 3rd party candidates have fallen from over 3 million to 1.5 million votes, and the 2-party farce gains legitimacy with its candidates gaining an increasing share of the votes cast.  In the end, it doesn't matter because the farce is unsustainable.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:44 | 2955331 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Time to go apply for foodstamps and any other "free" gimme.    Bring it down.   Rip that bandaid off.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:37 | 2955111 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame.  All good."

What did Obama say? Oh yeah, VENGEANCE !

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:46 | 2955173 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Here's comes the punishment......please start with John Boenher.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:59 | 2954995 GernB
GernB's picture

At this point it's all just timing. Obama cannot solve the problem with more spending so if we don't go over the fiscal cliff now we will go over it later. Let the can kicking begin.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:25 | 2955141 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

Romney would have kicked the can, Obama's going to double down. I'm convinced that the US is now too big to peacefully change. Good thing we have a mechanism to move our tech company to Australia - even though they have issues, they don't have ones that we do and their population is small enough to change course. Ditto for New Zealand.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:40 | 2954977 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

....." ... paging Dr. Gideon Gono, Washington calling. Paging Dr. Gideon..."

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:09 | 2955127 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Funny, not only is Zimbabwe's central bank chief Gideon '100 trillion Zim dollar' Gono still in his job ...

Gono is walking around talking about how he was a pioneer, now being followed by much of the world, a man with the vision to give Zimbabwe the 'QE - Quantitative Easing', now in vogue with governments everywhere

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:52 | 2955596 Gideon Gono
Gideon Gono's picture

I'm here, don't worry, I've got everything under control.  But, one thing, I'm not really a doctor...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:51 | 2954408 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

SHIT JUST GOT REAL BITCHEZ.  MUPPETZ IN FORCE!  ANALLY RAPING THEMSELVES AND YOU IN THE PROCESS!  ENJOY THE SECOND ASSHOLE.

http://www.therealstevegray.com/wp-content/uploads/kermit_nooo.jpg

Don't blame me.  I voted for gary johnson.

^<--- 1 percenter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R15BM1lMlDs

GANGSTER 1%ER.  Ridin waves like obama does muppets.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:53 | 2954452 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I am glad Obama won, so we can watch him blow up the country under his watch! Let him finish what he started!

Stupid fucking sheep on facebook will get what they deserve!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:00 | 2954500 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, they will, but the rest of us suffer the consequences as well.

Last chance to buy guns & ammo?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:22 | 2954628 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I think it's the last chance, the crash is now guaranteed.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:08 | 2954999 GernB
GernB's picture

Yup and probably sooner rather than later. I think recent market action was over hope that Romney might get elected. Improving economic conditions are just a cyclical illusion. In another 3-6 months it will turn back down again with no Fed to juice us out of it. Once investors figure out that we either won't solve our problems or they or the companies they invest in are going to foot a big part of the bill the market will tank. And, it won't come back. (yes I'm a deflationist).

Edit: I'm not saying Romney would fix anything, but he'd probably do better at stalling off the worst of the problems and dealing with things when the fall apart.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:33 | 2955149 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

Getting investment over the last four years has been hell - I know, we have a game changing hardware company that has been able to chug along, but because hardware is a long term investment, hasn't done as well as it should. All the big name companies that we have been dealing with (with one exception but they're having other issues right now) are bleeding money. The environment is brutal out there.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:33 | 2954687 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I was actually surprised Romney wanted to really win..It is more likely than not that the economy will collapse in the next year or so...followed by the dollar collapse shortly there after. Republicans losing the presidential election is likely the best thing to happen to them in a long time...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:20 | 2954950 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Romney had Colorado for the taking... just show up in Larimer County for a couple of PR stints.  Done.  Nah... that's what Barack Obama did.  Guys here couldn't give 2 sh!ts about Paul Ryan.

Ryan couldn't even manage to get any pull in Wisconsin and nearby Iowa.  Really?  Wow.

The RNC pissed off a lot of Republican voting Libertarians at the convention... most likely with Romney's blessing.  And I'm sure a good chunk of them see the Sh!tshow for what it really is and conclude "Why not just put Obama in that driver's seat to Fiscal Hades?"  It's like pushing the EASY button.

Late inning PAC run ads by the Rupublicans were just downright filthy here in CO... and it likely did more damage than good (espeically in the context of your candidiate not showing his face).

Yep... it makes you wonder if the Romney campaign was really trying all that hard.

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:06 | 2955003 GernB
GernB's picture

I agree, they had a chance, but decided to go with another big government conservative and they paid the price.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:27 | 2955278 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I see many, many, many comments on the internet similar to yours in that they just simply assume/accept/state that Romney is a "[] conservative."

Pray ... why do you (or anyone else, for that matter) think that Romney is a 'conservative' of any sort?

I mean, consider just this one fact about him: While governor of Massachussetts, he appointed 34 judges. Twenty-seven (27) of them were radical, communist, homosexual activist Democrats. True. Look it up. Fact. History. (Caveat: I might be slightly off in my numbers - been a while - but the point is valid.)

So why would you, or anyone else, think that Romney is a "conservative" of any stripe? I don't get it.

Other examples abound.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:40 | 2955113 ThankYouSirMayI...
ThankYouSirMayIHaveAnother's picture

Been my feeling for a while too, repubs dont really have an answer either

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:25 | 2955276 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's clear by the way they treated Ron Paul they don't want an answer.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:35 | 2954693 mick68
mick68's picture

Exactly. Patience, he who laughs last laughe best, and we will laugh best. To be sure. Keep stacking, load up on ammo, we got some Obama voters to snipe.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:51 | 2954749 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

So you stumbled in here from where? Are you that much a dumbshit to think Romney would give a shit about this country either? If there is Special Olympics I guess there is Special Politics as well

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:20 | 2955135 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

no seriously.  tyler.  you need to begin turning off registrations.  like now.  b/c EVERY POST now, there is a buttfucking retard saying some fucking retarded shit.  Seriously, don't let what happened to canvas beta happen to zh.  the number of retards is growing at an alarming rate.  for your own self preservation, turn off the registration.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:47 | 2955174 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i am probably one of those retards.. i don,t even get the red arrows i am looking for..

However, i did mention that " yamerde" changing its message board format would bring an invasion of new cybersheeple.
Fortunatly many have left finding ZH to difficult to use for their needs..."posting glorious shit about appmerde", and getting blown by fellow bernanke lovers.
But many more will come ,,,so lets just read the articles and not say gold bitchez, boatting accident, print baby print, me smart preper ypu dumb sheeple, fight club, ect....I THINK NOT.
Just let it be and let it IMPLODE , it s like a theme here at ZH amyway.

STILL want to know why ZH and zh ers are on strike in the middle east...?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:11 | 2955098 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Are you inciting violence there son? I recommend you shrivel that back up and crawl back into your basement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:54 | 2955199 Watauga
Watauga's picture

did you just forget to hit the SARC button?  or, maybe you are actually serious?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:06 | 2954917 tbone654
tbone654's picture

"The people have spoken, and now they must be punished..."  former NYC mayor Ed Koch

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:47 | 2954415 Anne Ominous
Anne Ominous's picture

How do I vote for the lame duck on the right?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:47 | 2954417 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

im from the UK but it really must suck to be american.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:53 | 2954462 chump666
chump666's picture

The UK was written off ten years ago.  It's an economic laughing stock of the world. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:54 | 2954761 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The U.K. is 20 or 30 years ahead of the U.S.

In other words, if one wants to see what the U.S. will look like in two or three decades, look at the U.K.

Same massive & destructive financial/banking parasitism draining the lifeblood out of productive economic entities and taxpayers; same massive and unsustainable entitlement programs and welfare nanny state-ism; same % of CCTV on every block to spy on citizens; same social rot; New York City as the London of the U.S.

This is BECAUSE of what Republicans have done WHEN THEY WERE IN OFFICE, and that's the problem. Just ask Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney.

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