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Next Steps: Fiscal Cliff
Tonight it's all Obama-corns and Biden-faeries but the market is already 'adjusting' to the new old new normal regime. Unfortunately in 'Obama II - This Time Its Different' the odds of going over the Fiscal Cliff just got real. As we noted here (and in more detail here and here), there is now a 55% chance we go over the cliff (given the status quo of no compromise) and the market is a long way from pricing that kind of GDP shock...
As for what comes next, here's a hint: "Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario"
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And it's right to business no honeymoon.
Print that shit up.
I see no real alternative to GOLD.
The American people have chosen to be the Free Shit Empire.
Prepare accordingly.
55% going over in this alter-bizzaro-nether-ponzi planet is the equivalent of not going over by 110%.
the calculus is 10x hopium for any scintilla of reality x 2.
silver platinum palladium bitchez.
Right on cue, as per play books.
Top-side and under-side.
Falling they go.
There is no fiscal "cliff"...it's already in the rear-view mirror. The DemoncanRepublicrat Party will go right on taxing X, spending 1.5 X, and monetizing the dif until the dollar collapses. Excellent. Then we go to bullets, not ballots.
Buy gold like it's water.
It's everyone for themselves now amigos.....good luck.
My affordable PM plan are cans of beans.
Security -wise I live amongst elderly liberals with 20yo Volvo 240's and Priuses. One golf club and I'm king of da'hood!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnDR8OngS1U&feature=autoplay&list=PL1766A...
I'm glad Obama won. Romney camp treated Ron Paul supporters like shit, thought they could win without them. Wrong!
Now the sheeple who voted for Obama will lose their jobs and have nobody to blame but the guy they voted for. Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame. All good.
Totally agree. They rather have Obama than Ron Paul to protect their military welfare
It needs to crumble then we can break away from world central banking, make a deal with Hugo like we did with the Saudis, run his mess of a country and his oil, sell off middle east assets to settle debt, and pool the Americas together.. And yes let Israel protect their holy dirt on their own.
love those military welfare queens always down voting whenever their free ride gets questioned... yet they want to cut out everything else. sick fucks
Those aren't the MIC welfare queens. They're the ADL volunteers, the Jooze.
Duly noted
ONWARD TO OBLIVION!
FORWARD SOVIET!
Until the weight of the ponderous beast is sucked under in its own tar pit of debt and entitlement.
Dudes don't feel bad...even Ron Paul couldn't stop Hitler. He was just a kid back then.
Unfortunately, that's not the way history is written. There is no tally of who sat on their couch and withheld their vote. Meanwhile it looks like the 3rd party candidates have fallen from over 3 million to 1.5 million votes, and the 2-party farce gains legitimacy with its candidates gaining an increasing share of the votes cast. In the end, it doesn't matter because the farce is unsustainable.
Time to go apply for foodstamps and any other "free" gimme. Bring it down. Rip that bandaid off.
"Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame. All good."
What did Obama say? Oh yeah, VENGEANCE !
Here's comes the punishment......please start with John Boenher.
At this point it's all just timing. Obama cannot solve the problem with more spending so if we don't go over the fiscal cliff now we will go over it later. Let the can kicking begin.
Romney would have kicked the can, Obama's going to double down. I'm convinced that the US is now too big to peacefully change. Good thing we have a mechanism to move our tech company to Australia - even though they have issues, they don't have ones that we do and their population is small enough to change course. Ditto for New Zealand.
....." ... paging Dr. Gideon Gono, Washington calling. Paging Dr. Gideon..."
Funny, not only is Zimbabwe's central bank chief Gideon '100 trillion Zim dollar' Gono still in his job ...
Gono is walking around talking about how he was a pioneer, now being followed by much of the world, a man with the vision to give Zimbabwe the 'QE - Quantitative Easing', now in vogue with governments everywhere
I'm here, don't worry, I've got everything under control. But, one thing, I'm not really a doctor...
SHIT JUST GOT REAL BITCHEZ. MUPPETZ IN FORCE! ANALLY RAPING THEMSELVES AND YOU IN THE PROCESS! ENJOY THE SECOND ASSHOLE.
http://www.therealstevegray.com/wp-content/uploads/kermit_nooo.jpg
Don't blame me. I voted for gary johnson.
^<--- 1 percenter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R15BM1lMlDs
GANGSTER 1%ER. Ridin waves like obama does muppets.
I am glad Obama won, so we can watch him blow up the country under his watch! Let him finish what he started!
Stupid fucking sheep on facebook will get what they deserve!
Yes, they will, but the rest of us suffer the consequences as well.
Last chance to buy guns & ammo?
I think it's the last chance, the crash is now guaranteed.
Yup and probably sooner rather than later. I think recent market action was over hope that Romney might get elected. Improving economic conditions are just a cyclical illusion. In another 3-6 months it will turn back down again with no Fed to juice us out of it. Once investors figure out that we either won't solve our problems or they or the companies they invest in are going to foot a big part of the bill the market will tank. And, it won't come back. (yes I'm a deflationist).
Edit: I'm not saying Romney would fix anything, but he'd probably do better at stalling off the worst of the problems and dealing with things when the fall apart.
Getting investment over the last four years has been hell - I know, we have a game changing hardware company that has been able to chug along, but because hardware is a long term investment, hasn't done as well as it should. All the big name companies that we have been dealing with (with one exception but they're having other issues right now) are bleeding money. The environment is brutal out there.
I was actually surprised Romney wanted to really win..It is more likely than not that the economy will collapse in the next year or so...followed by the dollar collapse shortly there after. Republicans losing the presidential election is likely the best thing to happen to them in a long time...
Romney had Colorado for the taking... just show up in Larimer County for a couple of PR stints. Done. Nah... that's what Barack Obama did. Guys here couldn't give 2 sh!ts about Paul Ryan.
Ryan couldn't even manage to get any pull in Wisconsin and nearby Iowa. Really? Wow.
The RNC pissed off a lot of Republican voting Libertarians at the convention... most likely with Romney's blessing. And I'm sure a good chunk of them see the Sh!tshow for what it really is and conclude "Why not just put Obama in that driver's seat to Fiscal Hades?" It's like pushing the EASY button.
Late inning PAC run ads by the Rupublicans were just downright filthy here in CO... and it likely did more damage than good (espeically in the context of your candidiate not showing his face).
Yep... it makes you wonder if the Romney campaign was really trying all that hard.
I agree, they had a chance, but decided to go with another big government conservative and they paid the price.
I see many, many, many comments on the internet similar to yours in that they just simply assume/accept/state that Romney is a "[] conservative."
Pray ... why do you (or anyone else, for that matter) think that Romney is a 'conservative' of any sort?
I mean, consider just this one fact about him: While governor of Massachussetts, he appointed 34 judges. Twenty-seven (27) of them were radical, communist, homosexual activist Democrats. True. Look it up. Fact. History. (Caveat: I might be slightly off in my numbers - been a while - but the point is valid.)
So why would you, or anyone else, think that Romney is a "conservative" of any stripe? I don't get it.
Other examples abound.
Been my feeling for a while too, repubs dont really have an answer either
It's clear by the way they treated Ron Paul they don't want an answer.
Exactly. Patience, he who laughs last laughe best, and we will laugh best. To be sure. Keep stacking, load up on ammo, we got some Obama voters to snipe.
So you stumbled in here from where? Are you that much a dumbshit to think Romney would give a shit about this country either? If there is Special Olympics I guess there is Special Politics as well
no seriously. tyler. you need to begin turning off registrations. like now. b/c EVERY POST now, there is a buttfucking retard saying some fucking retarded shit. Seriously, don't let what happened to canvas beta happen to zh. the number of retards is growing at an alarming rate. for your own self preservation, turn off the registration.
i am probably one of those retards.. i don,t even get the red arrows i am looking for..
However, i did mention that " yamerde" changing its message board format would bring an invasion of new cybersheeple.
Fortunatly many have left finding ZH to difficult to use for their needs..."posting glorious shit about appmerde", and getting blown by fellow bernanke lovers.
But many more will come ,,,so lets just read the articles and not say gold bitchez, boatting accident, print baby print, me smart preper ypu dumb sheeple, fight club, ect....I THINK NOT.
Just let it be and let it IMPLODE , it s like a theme here at ZH amyway.
STILL want to know why ZH and zh ers are on strike in the middle east...?
Are you inciting violence there son? I recommend you shrivel that back up and crawl back into your basement.
did you just forget to hit the SARC button? or, maybe you are actually serious?
"The people have spoken, and now they must be punished..." former NYC mayor Ed Koch
How do I vote for the lame duck on the right?
im from the UK but it really must suck to be american.
The UK was written off ten years ago. It's an economic laughing stock of the world.
The U.K. is 20 or 30 years ahead of the U.S.
In other words, if one wants to see what the U.S. will look like in two or three decades, look at the U.K.
Same massive & destructive financial/banking parasitism draining the lifeblood out of productive economic entities and taxpayers; same massive and unsustainable entitlement programs and welfare nanny state-ism; same % of CCTV on every block to spy on citizens; same social rot; New York City as the London of the U.S.
This is BECAUSE of what Republicans have done WHEN THEY WERE IN OFFICE, and that's the problem. Just ask Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney.
My guess would be five years.
Optimist!
No Wilson was in office when the FED was formed in 1913 and the income tax was established-he and the demoncrats pushed both through. This allowed unlimited debt creation and a debt backed money. This was the beginning of the end. The next signficant event occurred when Americans foolishly voted in LBJ instead of Goldwater in 1964 and he established the two programs currently responsible for all of the fiscal deficit; medicare and medicaid (and foodstamps). He "financed" those programs and the Vietnam war by intergovermetal borrowing from SS. Those are the only two political events of importance in the last century. The rest is all noise and futile attempts at damage control. Get rid of the FED and the income tax, and let the welfare state wither on the vine. Survival of the fittest-just as in evolution.
I wouldn't be quite so harsh. I'd say that those who benefit from those programs may find they would have been better off with private sector charity than forcing people to engage in charity through government.
Talk to homeless people about private charity organisations. These are often scams too.
Don't forget FDR and social security. If it wasn't for that program LBJ would have never been able to implement the Great Society.
JC--You are correct about all. There is, of course, much to add. The short version is this:
(1) Republic established under compromises that all but guarantee Central Govt abuses;
(2) Further compromises in the interest of the almighty dollar, expansion through war, expansion of Central Govt;
(3) Lincoln's War turned it all in favor of absolute Statism, as he established that the Central Govt could kill hundreds of thousands of people and get away with it;
(4) Wilson's Fed and income tax schemes; not to mention govt intrusion into even alcohol consumption; not to mention globalist ventures such as WWI;
(5) FDR's massive expansion of Central Govt power; he was Obama before Obama;
(6) LBJ's scheme to secure Statist power forevermore--civil rights + the Great Society + war + immigration reform = permanent Statist power;
(7) Obama's vast expansion of the Central Govt into the true Leviathan that it now is.
In between all of these were monsters like RMN and idiots like GWB, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. The bottom line is that our Founding Fathers (who truly were great men) established a Constitution that was subject to being abused (the most accurate image being the current occupant of 1900 Pennsylvania Ave using it for paper to wipe himself then flush it down the toilet). What we have to day we were always going to have. The Founding Fathers failed to account for the extent of evil in some men willing to do anything to gain wealth and power. Those men have created, out of a Republic, a great tyranny, and most Americans, of whatever ilk, have no idea. And that is both why they have been able to succeed and also why it will only get worse.
Recommended reading: http://www.enemiesforeignanddomestic.com/
Crucially, women's suffrage came in at the same time as the income tax. That sealed our fate, because women will always vote for bigger government. Consider, what is the very first thing the ladies did, once they had the vote, besides the federal income tax? That's right - Prohibition. Welcome to the Nanny State.
Bet you Brits' bus blows up first. At least we have room to hide from all the natives...
All depends on which vault Geraldo's doppelganger finds and cracks open first- the BoE or NY Fed
You'd have more credibility if you were Greek.
US Per-Person Debt Now 35% Higher Than Greece
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/debt-Greece-person-higher/2012/11/06/id/462944
like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol
like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol
like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol
like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol
like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol
Sam, you are out of control!
nop it,s my i.merde.
There is no actual "cliff."
Both Obama and Romney would have (and Obama will) cave & work a deal out to ensure that the Military-Bankster-Wall Street complex not only doesn't suffer any loss of taxpayer subsidies, but that this racketeering alliance gets huge bumps in taxpayer transfers (from The Bernank's debt enslavement scheme).
you been talking with Brian Wesbury lately?
+1 nobody will stop the fed. They're all in, and the restraint button has been broken for decades. The stakes will be raised in accelerating fashion right up to the inevitable moment of collapse
You barbarian you! There is no cliff, of is just a accounting thingy.
Full employment and steady prices! ( / sarc )
My Econ class with professor Keynes is going to be unbarable today. More unbarable than usual....
The only way Congress and the White House ever work together to accomplish something is when the crisis is both extremely severe and unavoidable. Only then does their true level of incompetence rise to the surface.
Simpson-Bowles shoud be the template for any long-run resolution on righting the Fiscal Ship.
However.... Here's what the fiscal cliff resolution in napkin form will look like:
Republicans will get the tax breaks they wanted.
Democrats will get the spending increases they seek.
Chairman Bernanke will get to turn on the QE until we go plaid.
See? Wasn't that easy???
They did the same crap-o-matic resolution in 2010. This is what 'status-quo' gets you.
There is no righting he fiscal ship. It's sad that the public thinks there is. Learn to use an abacus and it's not hard to figure out how screwed we are.
"Simpson-Bowles shoud be the template for any long-run resolution on righting the Fiscal Ship." Please explain.
55%? I could have swore there was a post earlier today stating the mathematical certaintity that whoever won....would 100% certainly captain the ship into the iceberg?
Why do they need 60 Senators?
Crash and burn....
The Tea Party has no idea what it is biting off...
I don't think you understand. This isn't a battle over which America we want it's a battle over crashing the system or not crashing the system. Reality does not care which party you belong to or what your idealogy is. Reigning in spending is the only chance we have (if we even have a chance any more) of preventing a crash. The tea party is the only group fighting to reign in spending and prevent a crash. The tea party is fighting to prevent us from driving off a much bigger fiscal cliff than a meer debt ceiling deal. That is what they are biting off, and if they fail then you will regret it... eventually.
+ everything.
I'm sorry not enough people see this.
Well, the Tea Party demographics suggest that these guys want $1 worth of benefits for 20 cents... i.e. "Dont touch *my* medicare"....
And just where was the Tea Party when W. was "hiding" the cost of two wars, increasing entitlements and cutting taxes...
I think that the major focus of the Tea Party was they were not quite ready for "a colored fella" to run the country...
Ryan, as the de facto spokesman, has zero credibility, not to mention he has shown himself to be a pathological liar...
Sorry that dog don't hunt....
Don't blame me, I wrote in Nixon. A dead corrupt politician that helped start this mess is no worse than a living one that continues the madness on steroids.
Might want to rework those debt ceilings numbers. So we aren't hitting the fucker every 3 to 6 months. It distracts the sheep from bread and games. I'm guessing 30 trillion debt by year 7. Unless the rest of the world is mind numbingly fucking retarded and still using dollars for trade.
I'll raise your guess ten trillion even with some countries bypassing the dollar!
The debt ceiling should be turned into a moonroof, because that will spare us much useless rhetoric, hyperbole & drama.
We won't get that far because the forces of deflation will overwhelm the system long before we are able to get to that point.
I'm betting on hyperinflation - which we are already seeing, but why do you think deflation?
Listening to the ABC media today you'd think the fiscal cliff problem would be easily "solved" if the stupid Republicans just allowed "moar revenue" to be raised. The talking heads want everyone to be "reasonable" and "compromise" to "get things done".
But what about the MATH?
Math is racist yo, pay up.
Trav?
That yo, bro?
No, I don't think it is...
But the black memorial band is highly suggestive...
They couldn't do the math if you taught them how to, that's why they are in the Media after all. Liberal Arts that are not economics FTL.
Again, reality does not care which party you belong to. Raising taxes may reduce revenues rather than increase them (as it often has) accellerating a crash. What will happen won't be affected by who wins which election or who wins which debate.
The diagram says 55% chance no cliff, that means only a 45% chance we go over the cliff. Why is the author of the article interpreting it differently?
Pretty sure it was an honest mistake. But 45% is still terrifying. Hell, anything over 0.000000000001% should be fucking terrfying.
Totally wrong. Letting everything baked in the cake for Jan 1 happen is the best outcome possible.
You know, the 'big' thing about the cliff was supposed to be the part about falling into recession. How does that happen when the real economy has never left recession? How does that happen when all the 'spontaneous' market forces are chained and gagged in the sub-basement? This is just more manufactured crisis bullshit that attempts to keep the panic ball rolling. I wonder when the capital controls will crawl out from under a rock?
When Americans naively believe the headline unemployment rate is 7.9% (when, if using the methodology used prior to 1994, the BLS would show U6 as 24%), nothing should shock anyone today.
I remember wage and price freezes. Oh joy, those were fun. And so effective. Don't worry the recession can always be deeper.
OT: Amendment 64 passes in CO, which becomes first state to fully legalize marijuana use. Can't wait to see Manchurian have Eric Holder shit all over this.
+ 1
First piece of good news tonight.
Is marijuana legal in Mexico?
Last I heard, the cartel-backed candidates are in power and are working to make all drugs legal.
Legalizing drugs would cut into the shadow gov't profits and they wil fight it tooth and nail. From troops protecting poppies in Afghanistan to the CIA providing safe transport finishing with Holder supplying guns to the Mexican gangs.
You may get some grass roots movement, but I am sure big Pharma is already planting bugs in polititians ears (along with money in their pockets)that they should be in charge of newly legalized drugs for "consumer safety" purposes.
The state may consider it legal but the Feds still will pounce on it.
Marijuana legalization also passing strongly 55/45 in washington state. Cal initiative to raise income taxes failing! Good luck Gov Moonbeam with your budget balancing.
How does that work. What happens when a state invalidates a federal law?
We can solve the fiscal cliff by bulldozing all the blacks in Cleveland into Lake Erie. Then go straight to Detroit.
Probably wouldn't matter since the majority of those that voted probably don't even live in Ohio.
The certainty is the fraud in this election in the inner city was unprecedented.
Bulldozing?
Why waste tax money, wear out machinery when, slowly, Detroit, Gary, thousands of preFederal Reserve cities naturally return to fields?
If fifth generation alcohol /crack baby now adult blacks like to habitate there, good. Fedgov Section 8 expenses are less, freeing up money for GS14 pension to Jupiter, Fla.
Think of these once powerhouse industrial cities as urban, free range tribal zones and voter banks/reservations. Like American Indian rezs.
Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.
Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.
We heard you the first time...
Fuck you liberal.
It's a lot of work downvoting all your duplicate posts. Can you try to keep it to single posts so I only have to downvote one? Much obliged.
Fuck you liberal.
Ding. Your Hot Pocket is done. Better go eat it quick.
Hey, Obama and his voters are going to take the full blame when this train hits the wall. And even better, when the sheeple are in the streets panicking, we can pick them off with our rifles.
Massive layoffs begin within a week. They'll enjoy a few days, we'll enjoy a few years.
All good if you ask me.
Nothing like cold blooded mass murder to make an important statement.
Well now Obama owns it.....we are now talking 2-3 trillion a year in extra debt....and a Middle east that is a Christians enemy...and a world recession with trade embargos and tarrifs...and it will be the producers vs the freebies...the freebiew will win as the producers quit
+ 1
Yes. Go Galt, buy gold.
Palestinian Christians will tell you that it is Israel and not radical Islam which is destroying their two thousand year old way of life. Maybe we should stop subsidizing that.
Palestinian Christians Respond to Israeli Ambassador Michael Orenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdaWyFVKy4A
Personally I am a anti-Sumerian bigot. Everything was milk and honey and waking up to a frisky Lamb every morning until the Sumarian Nazis ruined the 'hood.
Of course those fuckers will put together some retarded short term deal... Shit, they haven't been able to put together a budget for 4 years!
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
That was a nice ride for $7Billion - can we do it again - can we, can we - please can we!
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Libertarians think they are above the fray. "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault. I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.” Yes I will be bothering you and your family.
Shouldn't you be out on a ledge somewhere?
Libertarians think they are above the fray. "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault. I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.” Yes I will be bothering you and your family.
I'm a Libertarian in political beliefs, but in a corrupt two party system, I still voted for the lesser evil of the two "real" choices, which in my humble opinion was Romney/Ryan ex-Bernanke.
Go bother the Iranians. Go bother the Iranians.
They should set up some kind of super committee to work this shit out.
The last Super Committee says 'hi".
Super. That always works out so well.
Speaking as a Libertarian, if Romney wins the popular vote, the previous four years will look like a passionate love affair between the Dems & Reps, compared to the next four, starting with the lame-chicken session of Congress. I think the probability of a "nominal" recession is more like 90%. Keep in mind that Obamaphones and food stamp consumption don't add much to GDP.
Popular is not a word I associate with Mitt Romney.
I think the possibility of an outright ecenomic collapse is at least 75%. When the public starts to loose faith in bonds, interest rates will rise, and once that starts happening to US treasuries, it is likely to snowball into a collapse of the dollar.
Fukc Obamunism
I believe the correct speelling is Fuck.
You're welcome.
Stuff like that happens when you are in an apopletic rage....
And the fun begins. Coming to a town near you soon. Greece protests grow before latest austerity vote | ForexLive
Has this supposed austerity ever shown up as decreaed spending by the Greek government? It's hard to take anything seriously that does not.
Not sure if it is funny/sad about the amount of people on here who believe the nonsense jargon about socialist/Marxist/counter-revoluntionary Obama. Funny but when you have a candidate who greatly expands gov't surveillance, supports big business including finance through several policies but no nationalization or criminal prosecution, expands military action on a wide scale, and continues to push power from the Executive branch that looks to me a hell a lot more like a fascist.
The world's most notorious fascists called themselves National Socialists.
Don't for a minute think Obama isn't familiar with Cloward and Piven. What makes people think that isn't what he means when he talks about fundamental change.
Looks like the majority of the voting public is OK with Cloward and Piven. This aint our Daddys' USA any more. The white man is the dumbest animal on the planet and deserves the loss of the country given him.
Fiscal cliff. Lol. That's an easy puzzle to solve. Hello Iran. Goodbye social security. There you go. All fixed now.
So, when do we invade Iran?...
If you are not physically in shape...now is the time to get that way.