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Next Steps: Fiscal Cliff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Tonight it's all Obama-corns and Biden-faeries but the market is already 'adjusting' to the new old new normal regime. Unfortunately in 'Obama II - This Time Its Different' the odds of going over the Fiscal Cliff just got real. As we noted here (and in more detail here and here), there is now a 55% chance we go over the cliff (given the status quo of no compromise) and the market is a long way from pricing that kind of GDP shock...

 

 

 

As for what comes next, here's a hint: "Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario"


 

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Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:46 | 2954407 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

And it's right to business no honeymoon.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:51 | 2954446 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Print that shit up.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:59 | 2954489 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I see no real alternative to GOLD.

The American people have chosen to be the Free Shit Empire.

 

Prepare accordingly.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:01 | 2954497 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

55% going over in this alter-bizzaro-nether-ponzi planet is the equivalent of not going over by 110%. 

the calculus is 10x hopium for any scintilla of reality x 2.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954526 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

silver platinum palladium bitchez.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:07 | 2954554 old naughty
old naughty's picture

 Right on cue, as per play books.

Top-side and under-side.

Falling they go.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:12 | 2954586 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

There is no fiscal "cliff"...it's already in the rear-view mirror. The DemoncanRepublicrat Party will go right on taxing X, spending 1.5 X, and monetizing the dif until the dollar collapses. Excellent. Then we go to bullets, not ballots. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:40 | 2955161 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Buy gold like it's water.

 

It's everyone for themselves now amigos.....good luck.

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:02 | 2955409 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

My affordable PM plan are cans of beans.

Security -wise I live amongst elderly liberals with 20yo Volvo 240's and Priuses. One golf club and I'm king of da'hood!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:33 | 2954685 mick68
mick68's picture

I'm glad Obama won. Romney camp treated Ron Paul supporters like shit, thought they could win without them. Wrong!

Now the sheeple who voted for Obama will lose their jobs and have nobody to blame but the guy they voted for. Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame.  All good.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:45 | 2954739 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Totally agree. They rather have Obama than Ron Paul to protect their military welfare
It needs to crumble then we can break away from world central banking, make a deal with Hugo like we did with the Saudis, run his mess of a country and his oil, sell off middle east assets to settle debt, and pool the Americas together.. And yes let Israel protect their holy dirt on their own.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:21 | 2954951 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

love those military welfare queens always down voting whenever their free ride gets questioned...  yet they want to cut out everything else.   sick fucks

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:41 | 2956134 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Those aren't the MIC welfare queens.  They're the ADL volunteers, the Jooze.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 15:02 | 2957367 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Duly noted

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:58 | 2954777 ACP
ACP's picture

ONWARD TO OBLIVION!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:21 | 2954835 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

FORWARD SOVIET!

Until the weight of the ponderous beast is sucked under in its own tar pit of debt and entitlement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:44 | 2955168 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dudes don't feel bad...even Ron Paul couldn't stop Hitler. He was just a kid back then.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:34 | 2954990 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Unfortunately, that's not the way history is written.  There is no tally of who sat on their couch and withheld their vote.  Meanwhile it looks like the 3rd party candidates have fallen from over 3 million to 1.5 million votes, and the 2-party farce gains legitimacy with its candidates gaining an increasing share of the votes cast.  In the end, it doesn't matter because the farce is unsustainable.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:44 | 2955331 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Time to go apply for foodstamps and any other "free" gimme.    Bring it down.   Rip that bandaid off.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:37 | 2955111 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"Either way, this train is hitting the wall, nice to know it's doing so with Obama in office and his voters taking the blame.  All good."

What did Obama say? Oh yeah, VENGEANCE !

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:46 | 2955173 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Here's comes the punishment......please start with John Boenher.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:59 | 2954995 GernB
GernB's picture

At this point it's all just timing. Obama cannot solve the problem with more spending so if we don't go over the fiscal cliff now we will go over it later. Let the can kicking begin.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:25 | 2955141 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

Romney would have kicked the can, Obama's going to double down. I'm convinced that the US is now too big to peacefully change. Good thing we have a mechanism to move our tech company to Australia - even though they have issues, they don't have ones that we do and their population is small enough to change course. Ditto for New Zealand.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:40 | 2954977 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

....." ... paging Dr. Gideon Gono, Washington calling. Paging Dr. Gideon..."

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:09 | 2955127 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Funny, not only is Zimbabwe's central bank chief Gideon '100 trillion Zim dollar' Gono still in his job ...

Gono is walking around talking about how he was a pioneer, now being followed by much of the world, a man with the vision to give Zimbabwe the 'QE - Quantitative Easing', now in vogue with governments everywhere

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:52 | 2955596 Gideon Gono
Gideon Gono's picture

I'm here, don't worry, I've got everything under control.  But, one thing, I'm not really a doctor...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:51 | 2954408 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

SHIT JUST GOT REAL BITCHEZ.  MUPPETZ IN FORCE!  ANALLY RAPING THEMSELVES AND YOU IN THE PROCESS!  ENJOY THE SECOND ASSHOLE.

http://www.therealstevegray.com/wp-content/uploads/kermit_nooo.jpg

Don't blame me.  I voted for gary johnson.

^<--- 1 percenter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R15BM1lMlDs

GANGSTER 1%ER.  Ridin waves like obama does muppets.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:53 | 2954452 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I am glad Obama won, so we can watch him blow up the country under his watch! Let him finish what he started!

Stupid fucking sheep on facebook will get what they deserve!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:00 | 2954500 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, they will, but the rest of us suffer the consequences as well.

Last chance to buy guns & ammo?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:22 | 2954628 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I think it's the last chance, the crash is now guaranteed.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:08 | 2954999 GernB
GernB's picture

Yup and probably sooner rather than later. I think recent market action was over hope that Romney might get elected. Improving economic conditions are just a cyclical illusion. In another 3-6 months it will turn back down again with no Fed to juice us out of it. Once investors figure out that we either won't solve our problems or they or the companies they invest in are going to foot a big part of the bill the market will tank. And, it won't come back. (yes I'm a deflationist).

Edit: I'm not saying Romney would fix anything, but he'd probably do better at stalling off the worst of the problems and dealing with things when the fall apart.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:33 | 2955149 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

Getting investment over the last four years has been hell - I know, we have a game changing hardware company that has been able to chug along, but because hardware is a long term investment, hasn't done as well as it should. All the big name companies that we have been dealing with (with one exception but they're having other issues right now) are bleeding money. The environment is brutal out there.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:33 | 2954687 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I was actually surprised Romney wanted to really win..It is more likely than not that the economy will collapse in the next year or so...followed by the dollar collapse shortly there after. Republicans losing the presidential election is likely the best thing to happen to them in a long time...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:20 | 2954950 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Romney had Colorado for the taking... just show up in Larimer County for a couple of PR stints.  Done.  Nah... that's what Barack Obama did.  Guys here couldn't give 2 sh!ts about Paul Ryan.

Ryan couldn't even manage to get any pull in Wisconsin and nearby Iowa.  Really?  Wow.

The RNC pissed off a lot of Republican voting Libertarians at the convention... most likely with Romney's blessing.  And I'm sure a good chunk of them see the Sh!tshow for what it really is and conclude "Why not just put Obama in that driver's seat to Fiscal Hades?"  It's like pushing the EASY button.

Late inning PAC run ads by the Rupublicans were just downright filthy here in CO... and it likely did more damage than good (espeically in the context of your candidiate not showing his face).

Yep... it makes you wonder if the Romney campaign was really trying all that hard.

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:06 | 2955003 GernB
GernB's picture

I agree, they had a chance, but decided to go with another big government conservative and they paid the price.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:27 | 2955278 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I see many, many, many comments on the internet similar to yours in that they just simply assume/accept/state that Romney is a "[] conservative."

Pray ... why do you (or anyone else, for that matter) think that Romney is a 'conservative' of any sort?

I mean, consider just this one fact about him: While governor of Massachussetts, he appointed 34 judges. Twenty-seven (27) of them were radical, communist, homosexual activist Democrats. True. Look it up. Fact. History. (Caveat: I might be slightly off in my numbers - been a while - but the point is valid.)

So why would you, or anyone else, think that Romney is a "conservative" of any stripe? I don't get it.

Other examples abound.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:40 | 2955113 ThankYouSirMayI...
ThankYouSirMayIHaveAnother's picture

Been my feeling for a while too, repubs dont really have an answer either

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 08:25 | 2955276 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's clear by the way they treated Ron Paul they don't want an answer.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:35 | 2954693 mick68
mick68's picture

Exactly. Patience, he who laughs last laughe best, and we will laugh best. To be sure. Keep stacking, load up on ammo, we got some Obama voters to snipe.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:51 | 2954749 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

So you stumbled in here from where? Are you that much a dumbshit to think Romney would give a shit about this country either? If there is Special Olympics I guess there is Special Politics as well

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:20 | 2955135 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

no seriously.  tyler.  you need to begin turning off registrations.  like now.  b/c EVERY POST now, there is a buttfucking retard saying some fucking retarded shit.  Seriously, don't let what happened to canvas beta happen to zh.  the number of retards is growing at an alarming rate.  for your own self preservation, turn off the registration.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:47 | 2955174 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i am probably one of those retards.. i don,t even get the red arrows i am looking for..

However, i did mention that " yamerde" changing its message board format would bring an invasion of new cybersheeple.
Fortunatly many have left finding ZH to difficult to use for their needs..."posting glorious shit about appmerde", and getting blown by fellow bernanke lovers.
But many more will come ,,,so lets just read the articles and not say gold bitchez, boatting accident, print baby print, me smart preper ypu dumb sheeple, fight club, ect....I THINK NOT.
Just let it be and let it IMPLODE , it s like a theme here at ZH amyway.

STILL want to know why ZH and zh ers are on strike in the middle east...?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 06:11 | 2955098 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Are you inciting violence there son? I recommend you shrivel that back up and crawl back into your basement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:54 | 2955199 Watauga
Watauga's picture

did you just forget to hit the SARC button?  or, maybe you are actually serious?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:06 | 2954917 tbone654
tbone654's picture

"The people have spoken, and now they must be punished..."  former NYC mayor Ed Koch

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:47 | 2954415 Anne Ominous
Anne Ominous's picture

How do I vote for the lame duck on the right?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:47 | 2954417 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

im from the UK but it really must suck to be american.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:53 | 2954462 chump666
chump666's picture

The UK was written off ten years ago.  It's an economic laughing stock of the world. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:54 | 2954761 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The U.K. is 20 or 30 years ahead of the U.S.

In other words, if one wants to see what the U.S. will look like in two or three decades, look at the U.K.

Same massive & destructive financial/banking parasitism draining the lifeblood out of productive economic entities and taxpayers; same massive and unsustainable entitlement programs and welfare nanny state-ism; same % of CCTV on every block to spy on citizens; same social rot; New York City as the London of the U.S.

This is BECAUSE of what Republicans have done WHEN THEY WERE IN OFFICE, and that's the problem. Just ask Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:04 | 2954793 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My guess would be five years.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:52 | 2954989 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Optimist!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:08 | 2954928 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

No Wilson was in office when the FED was formed in 1913 and the income tax was established-he and the demoncrats pushed both through.  This allowed unlimited debt creation and a debt backed money.  This was the beginning of the end.  The next signficant event occurred when Americans foolishly voted in LBJ instead of Goldwater in 1964 and he established the two programs currently responsible for all of the fiscal deficit;  medicare and medicaid (and foodstamps).  He "financed" those programs and the Vietnam war by intergovermetal borrowing from SS.  Those are the only two political events of importance in the last century.  The rest is all noise and futile attempts at damage control.  Get rid of the FED and the income tax, and let the welfare state wither on the vine.  Survival of the fittest-just as in evolution.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:12 | 2955008 GernB
GernB's picture

I wouldn't be quite so harsh. I'd say that those who benefit from those programs may find they would have been better off with private sector charity than forcing people to engage in charity through government.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:13 | 2955061 Yogieu
Yogieu's picture

Talk to homeless people about private charity organisations. These are often scams too.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:40 | 2955162 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

Don't forget FDR and social security. If it wasn't for that program LBJ would have never been able to implement the Great Society.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:52 | 2955190 Watauga
Watauga's picture

JC--You are correct about all.  There is, of course, much to add.  The short version is this:

(1) Republic established under compromises that all but guarantee Central Govt abuses;

(2) Further compromises in the interest of the almighty dollar, expansion through war, expansion of Central Govt;

(3) Lincoln's War turned it all in favor of absolute Statism, as he established that the Central Govt could kill hundreds of thousands of people and get away with it;

(4) Wilson's Fed and income tax schemes; not to mention govt intrusion into even alcohol consumption; not to mention globalist ventures such as WWI;

(5) FDR's massive expansion of Central Govt power; he was Obama before Obama;

(6) LBJ's scheme to secure Statist power forevermore--civil rights + the Great Society + war + immigration reform = permanent Statist power;

(7) Obama's vast expansion of the Central Govt into the true Leviathan that it now is.

In between all of these were monsters like RMN and idiots like GWB, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton.  The bottom line is that our Founding Fathers (who truly were great men) established a Constitution that was subject to being abused (the most accurate image being the current occupant of 1900 Pennsylvania Ave using it for paper to wipe himself then flush it down the toilet).  What we have to day we were always going to have.  The Founding Fathers failed to account for the extent of evil in some men willing to do anything to gain wealth and power.  Those men have created, out of a Republic, a great tyranny, and most Americans, of whatever ilk, have no idea.  And that is both why they have been able to succeed and also why it will only get worse.

Recommended reading: http://www.enemiesforeignanddomestic.com/

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 22:31 | 2959097 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Crucially, women's suffrage came in at the same time as the income tax. That sealed our fate, because women will always vote for bigger government. Consider, what is the very first thing the ladies did, once they had the vote, besides the federal income tax? That's right - Prohibition. Welcome to the Nanny State.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:54 | 2954468 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Bet you Brits' bus blows up first.  At least we have room to hide from all the natives...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:59 | 2954994 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

All depends on which vault Geraldo's doppelganger finds and cracks open first- the BoE or NY Fed

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954616 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

You'd have more credibility if you were Greek. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:24 | 2954649 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

 

US Per-Person Debt Now 35% Higher Than Greece

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/debt-Greece-person-higher/2012/11/06/id/462944

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:50 | 2955179 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:50 | 2955181 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:50 | 2955182 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:50 | 2955183 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:50 | 2955187 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like living in that shit island of yours is any better...lol

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:59 | 2955206 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Sam, you are out of control!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:45 | 2955831 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

nop it,s my i.merde.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:48 | 2954423 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There is no actual "cliff."

Both Obama and Romney would have (and Obama will) cave & work a deal out to ensure that the Military-Bankster-Wall Street complex not only doesn't suffer any loss of taxpayer subsidies, but that this racketeering alliance gets huge bumps in taxpayer transfers (from The Bernank's debt enslavement scheme).

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:50 | 2954441 Zero Bid
Zero Bid's picture

you been talking with Brian Wesbury lately?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:58 | 2954491 gjp
gjp's picture

+1 nobody will stop the fed. They're all in, and the restraint button has been broken for decades. The stakes will be raised in accelerating fashion right up to the inevitable moment of collapse

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:43 | 2954724 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You barbarian you! There is no cliff, of is just a accounting thingy.
Full employment and steady prices! ( / sarc )

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:43 | 2955166 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

My Econ class with professor Keynes is going to be unbarable today. More unbarable than usual....

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:29 | 2954938 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

The only way Congress and the White House ever work together to accomplish something is when the crisis is both extremely severe and unavoidable.  Only then does their true level of incompetence rise to the surface.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:27 | 2954958 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Simpson-Bowles shoud be the template for any long-run resolution on righting the Fiscal Ship.

However.... Here's what the fiscal cliff resolution in napkin form will look like:

Republicans will get the tax breaks they wanted.

Democrats will get the spending increases they seek.

Chairman Bernanke will get to turn on the QE until we go plaid.

See?  Wasn't that easy???  

They did the same crap-o-matic resolution in 2010.  This is what 'status-quo' gets you.

 

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:15 | 2955011 GernB
GernB's picture

There is no righting he fiscal ship. It's sad that the public thinks there is. Learn to use an abacus and it's not hard to figure out how screwed we are.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:23 | 2955483 Watauga
Watauga's picture

"Simpson-Bowles shoud be the template for any long-run resolution on righting the Fiscal Ship." Please explain.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:48 | 2954435 geologyguy
geologyguy's picture

55%?  I could have swore there was a post earlier today stating the mathematical certaintity that whoever won....would 100% certainly captain the ship into the iceberg?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:09 | 2954566 Matt
Matt's picture

Why do they need 60 Senators?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:53 | 2954465 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Crash and burn....

The Tea Party has no idea what it is biting off...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:26 | 2955021 GernB
GernB's picture

I don't think you understand. This isn't a battle over which America we want it's a battle over crashing the system or not crashing the system. Reality does not care which party you belong to or what your idealogy is. Reigning in spending is the only chance we have (if we even have a chance any more) of preventing a crash. The tea party is the only group fighting to reign in spending and prevent a crash. The tea party is fighting to prevent us from driving off a much bigger fiscal cliff than a meer debt ceiling deal. That is what they are biting off, and if they fail then you will regret it... eventually.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:52 | 2955192 odatruf
odatruf's picture

+ everything.

I'm sorry not enough people see this.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:23 | 2955727 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well, the Tea Party demographics suggest that these guys want $1 worth of benefits for 20 cents... i.e. "Dont touch *my* medicare"....

And just where was the Tea Party when W. was "hiding" the cost of two wars, increasing entitlements and cutting taxes...

I think that the major focus of the Tea Party was they were not quite ready for "a colored fella" to run the country...

Ryan, as the de facto spokesman, has zero credibility, not to mention he has shown himself to be a pathological liar...

Sorry that dog don't hunt....

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:57 | 2954484 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

Don't blame me, I wrote in Nixon. A dead corrupt politician that helped start this mess is no worse than a living one that continues the madness on steroids.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 00:57 | 2954485 sadpanda
sadpanda's picture

Might want to rework those debt ceilings numbers. So we aren't hitting the fucker every 3 to 6 months. It distracts the sheep from bread and games. I'm guessing 30 trillion debt by year 7. Unless the rest of the world is mind numbingly fucking retarded and still using dollars for trade.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954540 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

I'll raise your guess ten trillion even with some countries bypassing the dollar!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:27 | 2954852 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The debt ceiling should be turned into a moonroof, because that will spare us much useless rhetoric, hyperbole & drama.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:28 | 2955024 GernB
GernB's picture

We won't get that far because the forces of deflation will overwhelm the system long before we are able to get to that point.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:54 | 2955198 Ayn NY
Ayn NY's picture

I'm betting on hyperinflation - which we are already seeing, but why do you think deflation?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:01 | 2954508 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Listening to the ABC media today you'd think the fiscal cliff problem would be easily "solved" if the stupid Republicans just allowed "moar revenue" to be raised.  The talking heads want everyone to be "reasonable" and "compromise" to "get things done".

But what about the MATH?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:50 | 2954751 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Math is racist yo, pay up.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:18 | 2955013 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Trav?

That yo, bro?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:24 | 2955736 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No, I don't think it is...

But the black memorial band is highly suggestive...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:11 | 2954933 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They couldn't do the math if you taught them how to, that's why they are in the Media after all. Liberal Arts that are not economics FTL.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:31 | 2955030 GernB
GernB's picture

Again, reality does not care which party you belong to. Raising taxes may reduce revenues rather than increase them (as it often has) accellerating a crash. What will happen won't be affected by who wins which election or who wins which debate.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954519 endicott glacier
endicott glacier's picture

The diagram says 55% chance no cliff, that means only a 45% chance we go over the cliff. Why is the author of the article interpreting it differently?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:06 | 2954547 The Master
The Master's picture

Pretty sure it was an honest mistake. But 45% is still terrifying. Hell, anything over 0.000000000001% should be fucking terrfying.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:13 | 2954590 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Totally wrong. Letting everything baked in the cake for Jan 1 happen is the best outcome possible.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954520 TulsaTime
TulsaTime's picture

You know, the 'big' thing about the cliff was supposed to be the part about falling into recession.  How does that happen when the real economy has never left recession?  How does that happen when all the 'spontaneous' market forces are chained and gagged in the sub-basement?  This is just more manufactured crisis bullshit that attempts to keep the panic ball rolling.  I wonder when the capital controls will crawl out from under a rock?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:02 | 2954606 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

When Americans naively believe the headline unemployment rate is 7.9% (when, if using the methodology used prior to 1994, the BLS would show U6 as 24%), nothing should shock anyone today.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:33 | 2955033 GernB
GernB's picture

I remember wage and price freezes. Oh joy, those were fun. And so effective. Don't worry the recession can always be deeper.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954524 The Master
The Master's picture

OT: Amendment 64 passes in CO, which becomes first state to fully legalize marijuana use. Can't wait to see Manchurian have Eric Holder shit all over this.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:16 | 2954607 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

First piece of good news tonight.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954615 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

Is marijuana legal in Mexico?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:44 | 2954729 Matt
Matt's picture

Last I heard, the cartel-backed candidates are in power and are working to make all drugs legal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:32 | 2955147 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Legalizing drugs would cut into the shadow gov't profits and they wil fight it tooth and nail. From troops protecting poppies in Afghanistan to the CIA providing safe transport finishing with Holder supplying guns to the Mexican gangs. 

You may get some grass roots movement, but I am sure big Pharma is already planting bugs in polititians ears (along with money in their pockets)that they should be in charge of newly legalized drugs for "consumer safety" purposes.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:31 | 2954673 Curt W
Curt W's picture

The state may consider it legal but the Feds still will pounce on it.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:13 | 2954941 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Marijuana legalization also passing strongly 55/45 in washington state.  Cal initiative to raise income taxes failing!  Good luck Gov Moonbeam with your budget balancing.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:34 | 2955035 GernB
GernB's picture

How does that work. What happens when a state invalidates a federal law?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954531 adr
adr's picture

We can solve the fiscal cliff by bulldozing all the blacks in Cleveland into Lake Erie. Then go straight to Detroit.

Probably wouldn't matter since the majority of those that voted probably don't even live in Ohio.

The certainty is the fraud in this election in the inner city was unprecedented.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:19 | 2954949 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Bulldozing?
Why waste tax money, wear out machinery when, slowly, Detroit, Gary, thousands of preFederal Reserve cities naturally return to fields?
If fifth generation alcohol /crack baby now adult blacks like to habitate there, good. Fedgov Section 8 expenses are less, freeing up money for GS14 pension to Jupiter, Fla.

Think of these once powerhouse industrial cities as urban, free range tribal zones and voter banks/reservations. Like American Indian rezs.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954543 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954544 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:07 | 2954557 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We heard you the first time...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:08 | 2954561 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck you liberal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:32 | 2954679 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

It's a lot of work downvoting all your duplicate posts.  Can you try to keep it to single posts so I only have to downvote one?  Much obliged.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:08 | 2954562 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck you liberal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:42 | 2954721 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Ding.  Your Hot Pocket is done.  Better go eat it quick. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:38 | 2954703 mick68
mick68's picture

Hey, Obama and his voters are going to take the full blame when this train hits the wall. And even better, when the sheeple are in the streets panicking, we can pick them off with our rifles.

Massive layoffs begin within a week. They'll enjoy a few days, we'll enjoy a few years.

 

All good if you ask me.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:37 | 2955073 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Nothing like cold blooded mass murder to make an important statement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:11 | 2954580 youngman
youngman's picture

Well now Obama owns it.....we are now talking 2-3 trillion a year in extra debt....and a Middle east that is a Christians enemy...and a world recession with trade embargos and tarrifs...and it will be the producers vs the freebies...the freebiew will win as the producers quit

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:07 | 2954803 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1 

Yes.  Go Galt, buy gold.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:29 | 2954856 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Palestinian Christians will tell you that it is Israel and not radical Islam which is destroying their two thousand year old way of life. Maybe we should stop subsidizing that.

 

Palestinian Christians Respond to Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdaWyFVKy4A

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:28 | 2954960 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Personally I am a anti-Sumerian bigot. Everything was milk and honey and waking up to a frisky Lamb every morning until the Sumarian Nazis ruined the 'hood.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:34 | 2954585 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Of course those fuckers will put together some retarded short term deal... Shit, they haven't been able to put together a budget for 4 years!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:14 | 2954593 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

That was a nice ride for $7Billion - can we do it again - can we, can we - please can we!

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954609 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Libertarians think they are above the fray.  "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault.  I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.”  Yes I will be bothering you and your family.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:31 | 2954861 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Shouldn't you be out on a ledge somewhere?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954610 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Libertarians think they are above the fray.  "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault.  I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.”  Yes I will be bothering you and your family.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:23 | 2954636 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

I'm a Libertarian in political beliefs, but in a corrupt two party system, I still voted for the lesser evil of the two "real" choices, which in my humble opinion was Romney/Ryan ex-Bernanke.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:24 | 2954648 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Go bother the Iranians.  Go bother the Iranians. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:22 | 2954614 fuu
fuu's picture

They should set up some kind of super committee to work this shit out.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:40 | 2954976 Assetman
Assetman's picture

The last Super Committee says 'hi".

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:35 | 2955036 GernB
GernB's picture

Super. That always works out so well.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:18 | 2954623 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

Speaking as a Libertarian, if Romney wins the popular vote, the previous four years will look like a passionate love affair between the Dems & Reps, compared to the next four, starting with the lame-chicken session of Congress. I think the probability of a "nominal" recession is more like 90%. Keep in mind that Obamaphones and food stamp consumption don't add much to GDP.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:33 | 2954864 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Popular is not a word I associate with Mitt Romney.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:40 | 2955041 GernB
GernB's picture

I think the possibility of an outright ecenomic collapse is at least 75%. When the public starts to loose faith in bonds, interest rates will rise, and once that starts happening to US treasuries, it is likely to snowball into a collapse of the dollar.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:31 | 2954675 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Fukc Obamunism

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:39 | 2955076 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I believe the correct speelling is Fuck.

You're welcome.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:35 | 2956093 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Stuff like that happens when you are in an apopletic rage....

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:32 | 2954677 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And the fun begins. Coming to a town near you soon.  Greece protests grow before latest austerity vote | ForexLive

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:42 | 2955042 GernB
GernB's picture

Has this supposed austerity ever shown up as decreaed spending by the Greek government? It's hard to take anything seriously that does not.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:41 | 2954713 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Not sure if it is funny/sad about the amount of people on here who believe the nonsense jargon about socialist/Marxist/counter-revoluntionary Obama.  Funny but when you have a candidate who greatly expands gov't surveillance, supports big business including finance through several policies but no nationalization or criminal prosecution, expands military action on a wide scale, and continues to push power from the Executive branch that looks to me a hell a lot more like a fascist. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:34 | 2954869 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The world's most notorious fascists called themselves National Socialists.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:44 | 2955043 GernB
GernB's picture

Don't for a minute think Obama isn't familiar with Cloward and Piven. What makes people think that isn't what he means when he talks about fundamental change.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:53 | 2955196 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

Looks like the  majority of the voting public is OK with Cloward and Piven. This aint our Daddys' USA any more. The white man is the dumbest animal on the planet and deserves the loss of the country given him.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:44 | 2954731 Cobb
Cobb's picture

Fiscal cliff. Lol. That's an easy puzzle to solve. Hello Iran. Goodbye social security. There you go. All fixed now.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:00 | 2954783 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

So, when do we invade Iran?...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:08 | 2954809 Tator
Tator's picture

If you are not physically in shape...now is the time to get that way.

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