Next Steps: Fiscal Cliff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Tonight it's all Obama-corns and Biden-faeries but the market is already 'adjusting' to the new old new normal regime. Unfortunately in 'Obama II - This Time Its Different' the odds of going over the Fiscal Cliff just got real. As we noted here (and in more detail here and here), there is now a 55% chance we go over the cliff (given the status quo of no compromise) and the market is a long way from pricing that kind of GDP shock...

 

 

 

As for what comes next, here's a hint: "Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario"


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Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:02 | 2954606 TruthInSunshine
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When Americans naively believe the headline unemployment rate is 7.9% (when, if using the methodology used prior to 1994, the BLS would show U6 as 24%), nothing should shock anyone today.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:33 | 2955033 GernB
GernB's picture

I remember wage and price freezes. Oh joy, those were fun. And so effective. Don't worry the recession can always be deeper.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954524 The Master
The Master's picture

OT: Amendment 64 passes in CO, which becomes first state to fully legalize marijuana use. Can't wait to see Manchurian have Eric Holder shit all over this.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:16 | 2954607 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1

First piece of good news tonight.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954615 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

Is marijuana legal in Mexico?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:44 | 2954729 Matt
Matt's picture

Last I heard, the cartel-backed candidates are in power and are working to make all drugs legal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:32 | 2955147 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Legalizing drugs would cut into the shadow gov't profits and they wil fight it tooth and nail. From troops protecting poppies in Afghanistan to the CIA providing safe transport finishing with Holder supplying guns to the Mexican gangs. 

You may get some grass roots movement, but I am sure big Pharma is already planting bugs in polititians ears (along with money in their pockets)that they should be in charge of newly legalized drugs for "consumer safety" purposes.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:31 | 2954673 Curt W
Curt W's picture

The state may consider it legal but the Feds still will pounce on it.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:13 | 2954941 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Marijuana legalization also passing strongly 55/45 in washington state.  Cal initiative to raise income taxes failing!  Good luck Gov Moonbeam with your budget balancing.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:34 | 2955035 GernB
GernB's picture

How does that work. What happens when a state invalidates a federal law?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:03 | 2954531 adr
adr's picture

We can solve the fiscal cliff by bulldozing all the blacks in Cleveland into Lake Erie. Then go straight to Detroit.

Probably wouldn't matter since the majority of those that voted probably don't even live in Ohio.

The certainty is the fraud in this election in the inner city was unprecedented.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:19 | 2954949 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Bulldozing?
Why waste tax money, wear out machinery when, slowly, Detroit, Gary, thousands of preFederal Reserve cities naturally return to fields?
If fifth generation alcohol /crack baby now adult blacks like to habitate there, good. Fedgov Section 8 expenses are less, freeing up money for GS14 pension to Jupiter, Fla.

Think of these once powerhouse industrial cities as urban, free range tribal zones and voter banks/reservations. Like American Indian rezs.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954543 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:05 | 2954544 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck Obama. Fuck liberals.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:07 | 2954557 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We heard you the first time...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:08 | 2954561 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck you liberal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:32 | 2954679 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

It's a lot of work downvoting all your duplicate posts.  Can you try to keep it to single posts so I only have to downvote one?  Much obliged.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:08 | 2954562 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Fuck you liberal.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:42 | 2954721 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Ding.  Your Hot Pocket is done.  Better go eat it quick. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:38 | 2954703 mick68
mick68's picture

Hey, Obama and his voters are going to take the full blame when this train hits the wall. And even better, when the sheeple are in the streets panicking, we can pick them off with our rifles.

Massive layoffs begin within a week. They'll enjoy a few days, we'll enjoy a few years.

 

All good if you ask me.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:37 | 2955073 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Nothing like cold blooded mass murder to make an important statement.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:11 | 2954580 youngman
youngman's picture

Well now Obama owns it.....we are now talking 2-3 trillion a year in extra debt....and a Middle east that is a Christians enemy...and a world recession with trade embargos and tarrifs...and it will be the producers vs the freebies...the freebiew will win as the producers quit

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:07 | 2954803 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1 

Yes.  Go Galt, buy gold.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:29 | 2954856 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Palestinian Christians will tell you that it is Israel and not radical Islam which is destroying their two thousand year old way of life. Maybe we should stop subsidizing that.

 

Palestinian Christians Respond to Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdaWyFVKy4A

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:28 | 2954960 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Personally I am a anti-Sumerian bigot. Everything was milk and honey and waking up to a frisky Lamb every morning until the Sumarian Nazis ruined the 'hood.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:34 | 2954585 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Of course those fuckers will put together some retarded short term deal... Shit, they haven't been able to put together a budget for 4 years!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:14 | 2954593 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

That was a nice ride for $7Billion - can we do it again - can we, can we - please can we!

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954609 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Libertarians think they are above the fray.  "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault.  I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.”  Yes I will be bothering you and your family.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:31 | 2954861 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Shouldn't you be out on a ledge somewhere?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:17 | 2954610 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Libertarians think they are above the fray.  "I didn't vote, so it's not my fault.  I didn’t like Obama or Romney so no one will bother me.”  Yes I will be bothering you and your family.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:23 | 2954636 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

I'm a Libertarian in political beliefs, but in a corrupt two party system, I still voted for the lesser evil of the two "real" choices, which in my humble opinion was Romney/Ryan ex-Bernanke.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:24 | 2954648 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Go bother the Iranians.  Go bother the Iranians. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:22 | 2954614 fuu
fuu's picture

They should set up some kind of super committee to work this shit out.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 03:40 | 2954976 Assetman
Assetman's picture

The last Super Committee says 'hi".

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:35 | 2955036 GernB
GernB's picture

Super. That always works out so well.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:18 | 2954623 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

Speaking as a Libertarian, if Romney wins the popular vote, the previous four years will look like a passionate love affair between the Dems & Reps, compared to the next four, starting with the lame-chicken session of Congress. I think the probability of a "nominal" recession is more like 90%. Keep in mind that Obamaphones and food stamp consumption don't add much to GDP.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:33 | 2954864 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Popular is not a word I associate with Mitt Romney.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:40 | 2955041 GernB
GernB's picture

I think the possibility of an outright ecenomic collapse is at least 75%. When the public starts to loose faith in bonds, interest rates will rise, and once that starts happening to US treasuries, it is likely to snowball into a collapse of the dollar.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:31 | 2954675 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Fukc Obamunism

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 05:39 | 2955076 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I believe the correct speelling is Fuck.

You're welcome.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:35 | 2956093 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Stuff like that happens when you are in an apopletic rage....

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:32 | 2954677 Yen Cross
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 And the fun begins. Coming to a town near you soon.  Greece protests grow before latest austerity vote | ForexLive

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:42 | 2955042 GernB
GernB's picture

Has this supposed austerity ever shown up as decreaed spending by the Greek government? It's hard to take anything seriously that does not.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:41 | 2954713 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Not sure if it is funny/sad about the amount of people on here who believe the nonsense jargon about socialist/Marxist/counter-revoluntionary Obama.  Funny but when you have a candidate who greatly expands gov't surveillance, supports big business including finance through several policies but no nationalization or criminal prosecution, expands military action on a wide scale, and continues to push power from the Executive branch that looks to me a hell a lot more like a fascist. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:34 | 2954869 CrockettAlmanac.com
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The world's most notorious fascists called themselves National Socialists.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 04:44 | 2955043 GernB
GernB's picture

Don't for a minute think Obama isn't familiar with Cloward and Piven. What makes people think that isn't what he means when he talks about fundamental change.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 07:53 | 2955196 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

Looks like the  majority of the voting public is OK with Cloward and Piven. This aint our Daddys' USA any more. The white man is the dumbest animal on the planet and deserves the loss of the country given him.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 01:44 | 2954731 Cobb
Cobb's picture

Fiscal cliff. Lol. That's an easy puzzle to solve. Hello Iran. Goodbye social security. There you go. All fixed now.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:00 | 2954783 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

So, when do we invade Iran?...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 02:08 | 2954809 Tator
Tator's picture

If you are not physically in shape...now is the time to get that way.

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