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A Game Of Risk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

I went to sleep with some degree of hope and I awoke to find it dashed upon the reefs of the Florida coast. Yet in that comment, in my observation, the people have spoken and, right or wrong, it is the decision of the majority that holds. This morning no one is marching in the streets, no coup is underway and the election process functioned. For that much at least; I give thanks. We will have twenty-fours hours of afterglow and self-congratulation and then we will return to a Democratic President with a Democratic Senate that will confront a Republican Congress and America’s fiscal cliff. The popular vote provides no mandate and the United States remains a deeply divided country where the traditional values of the country are wrestling with a succession of new values where much is demanded from the government and where it is expected that those with money should pick up the bill. Much of Europe is far to the left of America and perhaps it is no surprise that we have swung in that direction but the important questions are still in front of us as we have been reckless in our spending and social commitments. The age of spend and borrow has to cease if the country is going to right itself and I can only hope that some compromise is found between the curtailment of social programs and the taxation to pay for that which is left and that those answers lie in some acceptable range of fairness to those that have and for those that are without. I remind everyone that we can only spend what we can afford and that compromise must be found as Lincoln’s famous comment rings in my ear, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”
 
The month of November will be defined by the following three subjects:
 

  • Fiscal Cliff
  • Greece
  • Spain

 
Just as our election on November 6 provided an end to a very long road so will the empty till of Athens and the severely declining revenues of Spain. Decisions will now have to be made. The IMF and the European Union are in gridlock over Greece and the country is out of money with payments to be made on November 16 that cannot be avoided. Mr. Rajoy can dance until the underpinnings of the floor give out and then Hell may have no fury like a Germany scorned and the tribal warring’s of ages long past may flare up again as Madrid pleads for sustenance. If there is a wildcard it is the politics of Greece where what is demanded is not given and where Athens decides that the pain inflicted will not be borne any longer. In both Greece and Spain it is a high stakes game of Risk where the “streets are alive” and not with “the sound of music.”
 
The IMF may, in fact, just say, “No” to additional funding for Greece as their constituents are far broader than the nations of Europe.  The EU is scathing under the whip of “Official Sector Involvement” and neither the ECB or the European Union have yet to accept the notion of any losses for Greece as it violates what they have told the taxpayers  in all of the nations on the Continent and so the squeeze is on. November 16 looms, the recession broadens and deepens and what is wished for by Spain will not be granted by the ECB as the condition of the European nations’ acceptance first is now firmly planted in the cement by Mr. Draghi.
 
Three subjects, three chances of “Force Majeure” and one strike may be all that is necessary to be out.

 

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Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:32 | 2955500 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"...the election process functioned."

If that's what you call it...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:42 | 2955554 4realmoney
4realmoney's picture

If there was ever a time to buy gold and silver, it is now! TexMetals is running an Obama coupon right now. Coupon code: '4moreyears' for $25 off

https://www.texmetals.com

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:05 | 2955646 CH1
CH1's picture

Get ready for the tax attacks. The parasite class has won, and they'll want to be fed.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2955864 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

The parasites appear to live in Republican states.

See http://www.theamericanconservative.com/where-do-the-47-percent-live/

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:30 | 2955502 Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

"a Democratic Senate that will confront a Republican Congress"  Last time I checked the Senate was part of Congress.  Do your credibility a favor and proofread!!!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:38 | 2955536 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I had this argument in college and convention is to call the house congress which also the broader name of both houses. 

Find something better to talk about.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:32 | 2955507 jeff314
jeff314's picture

He will ask for a third mandate and after a forth... my American friends you now have a king in the white house...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:36 | 2955526 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

What did you do with the unqualified hack you had in there?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:33 | 2955509 not fat not stupid
not fat not stupid's picture

Gut the defense budget and I'll support huge SS/medicare/medicaid reform. Until then, fuck off.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:36 | 2955792 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Don't worry, just keep your head burried in the sand. Thanks to denial, everything is sustainable.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:38 | 2955799 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

None/neither can be cut/reformed without some group crying bloody murder. Thus, the cliff is preferred.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:33 | 2955510 IPA
IPA's picture

"This morning no one is marching in the streets, no coup is underway and the election process functioned" Sometimes I forget to look at the positives. Its amazing how the other candidate is always going to destroy the country, but once elected, people mostly just go about their business.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:03 | 2955903 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

This morning no one is marching in the streets, no coup is underway and the election process functioned. For that much at least; I give thanks.

 

Bull-fucking-shit.

It it had been a marginal victory for Romney, the country would be BURNING right now.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 14:10 | 2957112 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

No, it wouldn't. 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 15:14 | 2957430 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Yes, it would.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:35 | 2955520 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Kool-Aid won't cure a hangover "I can only hope that some compromise is found between the curtailment of social programs", the cost curve will be bent in the same direction it was during the last four years, upward.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:35 | 2955521 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

You know who benefits from a gridlocked Congress?  Big banks (and the corporations they bankroll).

In that sense, that's why the banks are still the big winners.  The gridlock and bullshit continues.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:55 | 2955606 waviator
waviator's picture

Shizz.. "You know who benefits from a gridlocked Congress?  Big banks (and the corporations they bankroll)."

The opposite of gridlock is a congress that rubber stamps all White House efforts. Examples include Bill Clinton's first two years, and Bush II's first six. A cacophony of bad legislation.

Both parties already belong to the bankers, so we need less legislation, not more. Since we lose capitalism and freedom with each new law, I prefer gridlock.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:06 | 2955922 odatruf
odatruf's picture

I prefer gridlock too, but more to get the benefits of letting the so-called fiscal cliff occur. 

We need the slowdown in spending of the sequester and the expiration of the SS tax holiday to happen. If getting both means I have to live with the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts too, then so be it. Since the debt ceiling will still be hit even with all that, we have the protection against all the new revenue being spent and instead being used to reduce the deficit shortfall, which means less borrowing and debt than we'd otherwise have.

The replay of the debt ceiling debate will again give more leverage to the those who are most willing to be intractable - namely the Tea Party. I only hope they hold out for more than they got last time. And yes, I recognize that not saying gold! or bitches! means that I still harbor the fantasy that responsible action can forestall the worst of what is to come.

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 18:22 | 2966348 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

What isn't done through legislation will be done through executive order.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:36 | 2955527 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

gee how about we curtail the huge social programs AND the huge defense programs...then maybe we can get somewhere

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:38 | 2955537 Venerability
Venerability's picture

I posted this on Seeking Alpha and am posting it again here. All who agree - pass it on to other sites:

The Libertarian-Market Nihilst crowd is doing itself absolutely no favors by behaving like spoiled little brats after these election results.

In fact, I think it is positively unseemly for the US futures to be having this kind of reaction so far. Let's hope responsible adults on both sides of the aisle - and their supporters in our Markets - turn things around dramatically by the end of the day.

The Hedge Fund and Money Manager community in general need to absorb the fact that it is possible to trade from and make money from the Long side and that if they persist in this "Smart Money Versus the Masses" mindset, they will either get:

The thinnest possible Markets, with no one but Them playing in the most brutal DOG Eat Other DOGs fashion . . .

Regulations of Market activity at a level not dreamed of until recently . . .

Or BOTH!

And what goes for Hedgies and Money Managers goes double for Financial Media and its Mavens.

The Politics of BOO! has been soundly rejected by everyone sane.

No one is "exceptional" in the US, and the US is not "exceptional" among the countries of the world.

This could be an extraordinarily exciting and dynamic and profitable period for everyone, if we began to embrace Growth in those parts of the World where the Bourgeoisie is rapidly increasing and Re-Growth in those area of the developed world which so badly need it.

Those who don't care to participate should go and sulk on their private islands or otherwise stop spoiling things for the rest of us.

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:13 | 2955687 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

+1....the most sarcastic post I've seen thus far.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:13 | 2955688 Venerability
Venerability's picture

Koch Bots, Koch Bots - Why don't your Owners just buy a nice little country of their choice - Greece, for that matter - and let the United States get on with an optimistic future?

By the way, my prediction on the House was really, really good! I said Dems would gain 12 seats, and it stands now at 11-13, although could go to 15.

I was also one of the very few here - maybe the only one - predicting President Obama would win the Electoral College by at least 7 percent. It is actually - what - 30 percent?

But you will remember when I said 7 percent-plus, everyone here said "Impossible! No one thinks that."

Some apparently did.

 

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:05 | 2955913 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

EXCELLENT use of /sarc!

 

MOAR!!!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:38 | 2955538 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"everything worked." no wonder the ratings sucked. "Just when Anderson Cooper he was fired there was a rumor of a Government Overthrow." oh, well. You can always dream Cooper. I still wanna marry you Erin Burnett. I have to warn you...I have a few issues. Nothing that can't get worked out...you know..."between the lines."

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:39 | 2955543 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The usa remains a deeply divided country...

I don't see that at the top. Its a deeply united country behind the 0.1%...in Capitol hill! Thats what this political show has been all about. Unity behind corporate america. 

They only bicker about who gets the political gravy tit-bits from the oligarchy banquet table. 

The day Congress decides to reign in the banks; demands, investigates and prosecutes for past accountability; will be the day the true divide comes out into the open, the one that people feel deep down inside themselves : the 1% vs the 99%. 

There is no outward sign of that divide even being abridged and halted, let alone its past folly identified and dealt with. 

As for reality hitting the elites of first world...its about time! 

 

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:42 | 2955555 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..The popular vote provides no mandate..."

what was the claimed (Govt statistic) on the voter turnout anyone know?

did the Govt statistic (claim) to be past the watermark of 50%

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:51 | 2955858 machineh
machineh's picture

117 million, almost exactly 50% of the adult population.

And down 14 million from 2008! WINNING!

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 12:09 | 2956250 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Many Thanks for the info :)

So they managed (magic'd?) that 50% watermark of voters to maintain the pretence we have a 'democracy' (which we all know is a patent lie).. the tanking voter numbers didn't squeeze past the under 50% vote, a 'perfect stop' on 50% ...maybe Bernank has got algos on a stop loss being pinged eh?

I'd be massively surprised if the polling stations managed to process 117m voters... they couldn't manage 3m flooded New Yorkers ...or that half the voting public voted ....there's not a figure the Govt doesn't cook, not a word that holds water

50% ..aha ...it cannot/musn't get any lower, keep the fraud of democracy going

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:46 | 2955573 LawsofPhysics
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My energy and PM portfolios are very happy this morning.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 09:47 | 2955579 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The fact that Congress has not passed a budget in the past three years is rather ominous.  But then, when you're courting lobbyists all day, other business will go to the back of the bus and stay there.  The time for resolution of anything is long past, everything is now moving in the direction of consequences...

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:02 | 2955634 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

The popular vote provides no mandate

The popular vote doesn't matter, and because it doesn't matter it isn't meaningful. Because of the electoral system, people don't vote. People in Texas don't vote because it doesn't matter, just as people in California don't vote becuase it doesn't matter. The popular vote is meaningless because it doesn't matter. If it did it would not be the same. Any conclusions based on the popular vote do not aknowledge the significance and impact of the electoral system.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:23 | 2955729 billsbest
billsbest's picture

You're outa luck if you ever thought a Republican House would save America. They were bought and paid-off years ago.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:29 | 2955757 wstrub
wstrub's picture

Lincoln’s famous comment rings in my ear, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”

and for those of religious persuasion

..........Jesus said that first.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 16:04 | 2957677 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

no he didnT.

 

the guy who faked the Gospel of Mathew made that up.

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 11:06 | 2955923 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

I'm Canadian, so I really shouldn't care, but since I work in the export/import services sector, I'm sad. 4 more years of Bambam means four more years of declining trade, fewer jobs on either side of the border, and less money for my company.

Not that I'm a huge fan of Romney, but at least he had competence on his side. As it is, I expect the capital strike to continue for at least two more years. Which way is Galt's Gulch?

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 13:35 | 2956914 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

"When you get to the fork in the road, take it."  -- Y. Berra

Wed, 11/07/2012 - 14:32 | 2957215 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Disappointed but not surprised. Not so much that we have a black nationalist Marxist as president but because of the people that voted for him. It says a lot about what they value and don't. Romney was a compromised contender for sure, but socialist he was not. Maybe so many are right here, suggesting we should hope for Obama to bring an earlier end to this mess, but it feels more like suicide. Many of us thought, from a forced optimism, that the first Obama term would be enough to slap people in the face, but this election proves that this will not happen. The problem with socialism is that it breeds dependency on the government and its forced redistribution. This cannot be a static situation. Dependency demands more dependency and more redistribution until there is nothing left to redistribute. The is no theory here. This is the way it works and it starts with socialism light, which progresses full socialism which necessarily becomes communism. A centralized system cannot be run efficiently enough to survive when subjected to the variables that democracy demands, therefore, a dictatorial rule is required. We see how this works and is working. AS the unsustainable system we can all agree we are participating in collapses, it will require decisive action by someone. Someone like Obama, who can rationalize that congress moves too slowly to be effective, requiring his direct interventions and actions. When this thing collapses, there will be no reset, just more of the bad stuff and less of the good until it becomes all bad. All is lost.

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