The Morning After

Tyler Durden's picture

Obama has been reelected, the Senate remains in the hands of the democrats, while Congress is controlled by the GOP. Most importantly, the printer is firmly in the hands of Ben Bernanke. In other words, nothing has changed, as was largely expected all along. The worst case scenario - a protracted litigation, challenging the results of the election - has been avoided after Mitt Romney contested shortly before midnight, and as a result the immediate downward gap in risk following the election has been largely recouped overnight. More importantly, '4 more years' of the same monetary policy and no end to currency dilution have resulted in a nearly $50 jump in gold overnight with the metal in the $1720s this morning, because while the Fiscal Cliff remains hopelessly unresolved, and the baseline scenario that the market will need to tumble to shock politicians into waking up, remains (as does Goldman's 1250 year end S&P price target), the reality is that no matter what happens, Bernanke and crew will print and monetize the coming deluge of debt (which would also have been the case if Romney had won). And with total debt set to rise to $22+ trillion over the next 4 years, a deluge it will be. Most importantly, with Obama reelected, Europe is now "off the hook" and can finally rock the boat, which means Greece can take its rightful place at the front of the domino chain. Remember: the latest Greek austerity vote is today and voting (i.e. debating) has begun, and with vote results expected later today. It also means that the military festivities in the middle east, where the US now has 2 aircraft carriers and 2 marine assault groups, can resume.

A just released Op-Ed by Pimco's El-Erian touches on all the key points:

Now, the morning after an expensive and acrimonious campaign, a re-elected President Obama must find a way to get Congress to step up to its responsibilities on economic governance. The election did nothing to heal the seemingly intractable partisan divisions in Washington. In fact, the bitter tone of the presidential contest could well encourage further polarisation.

 

Continued Republican control of the House and a filibuster-prone Senate suggest that President Obama will need to aggressively follow through on his economic vision while naming and shaming Congressional disruptors even more. This could do more than strategically align citizens’ desire for clear economic direction with their low opinion of Congress’s effectiveness; it could also influence the behaviour of new members coming into Congress (and there are quite a few of them).

 

While markets wait for this to happen, and unfortunately it could take quite a while, bond and equity investors could well experience a series of “Groundhog Days” – finding that a hyperactive Fed (still struggling to compensate for the paralysis of other policymaking entities) remains their best friend; and that the fiscal cliff, Europe’s debt crisis and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks continue to constitute threats to the asset classes’ favourable correlations and low volatility.

 

Have no doubt: yes, an enormous sum of money was spent on the campaigns; and, yes, many promises were made as the candidates sought to differentiate themselves. Yet, after an initial flurry, it is essentially déjà vu for investors. They will continue to hope for political sputnik moments while worrying about potential market instability.

Some more immediate thoughts, with an FX bias, from SocGen:

Can we expect a risk-on mood following Obama's re-election? In the very short term, that may indeed be the case: his victory means a loose monetary policy and weak USD policy will underpin economic activity in 2013. It implies low US swap rates and US bond markets outperforming the eurozone. However, we remain cautious as we see the initial market reaction as quite muted.

 

From a FX standpoint, we would see a lower USD/JPY via the interest rate channel (200dma at 79.62) and a higher AUD/USD (risk-on mood and hopefully more reassuring Chinese data, the 28 Sep high at 1.0474 or even the 21 Sep high of 1.0519 may be in sight). The profile for the EUR/USD is not as clear as eurozone drivers remain centre stage. Greece, Spain and, to a lesser extent, Cyprus and Slovenia are still potential sources of stress.

 

Cautious medium-term outlook. We do not think the initial market reaction constitutes a lasting trend. The US still must address the fiscal cliff over the coming weeks, with what will probably be a divided Congress. That is where the challenge lies. The US administration will have to renew more than half of the existing fiscal measures to avoid a marked slowdown in activity. This will have to go hand in hand with the first (smooth) signs of efforts in terms of fiscal discipline to satisfy rating agencies. Will it be enough to keep markets calm?

 

Risk factor. In the second scenario, were US structurals to come to the fore and take a turn for the worse, the USD and US bond markets would be in good position for a huge sell-off, with the debt ceiling and rating agencies on the radar, and 2008 still fresh in mind. This is a just risk factor for now. 10Y US swap rates have lost 200bp. The EUR/USD hit 1.60, with a completely different eurozone story. Should such a scenario occur, the cross would have to revisit 1.35 (2011 highs), before contemplating 1.4950 (2011 highs).

And as usual, the comprehensive market recap, via DB's Jim Reid:

Asian markets are retracing earlier losses with major equity benchmarks now off their intraday lows. The Nikkei, Hang Seng, KOSPI were all down somewhere between three and four-tenths of a percent earlier but are now mostly unchanged on the day. The S&P 500 Futures are also off the lows but still 6pts down since the US close. Gold continues to edge higher, up nearly $9 in the overnight session to $1725/oz as the Dollar index continues to weaken. Treasuries are also trimming back some earlier gains although the 10yr yield is still down 6bps at around a 3-week low of 1.688% as we type.

Clearly this is a developing story but the win for Obama likely ensures that money printing is here to stay which is market friendly. It’s still far too early to suggest what it means for the fiscal cliff though. Only time will tell on this front as it depends on how co-operative the Republicans feel after a defeat. This story will now slowly start to unfold.

As we conclude the key vote in the US, another vote to watch today will be in Greece as the Parliament decides on the austerity measures that are prerequisites for the next tranche of the bailout. According to Der Spiegel a narrow victory looks likely at this stage which would see the coalition government secure just enough votes (154) to pass it through the 300 seat parliament. Meanwhile a 48-hour planned protest that started yesterday saw 16,000 Greeks reportedly take to the streets in Athens. Apparently numbers were slightly disappointing which was blamed on public transport workers being on strike!! The Greek tensions have been overshadowed by events in the US but it remains a live issue.

Staying in Europe, markets yesterday perhaps got their first explicit signal from Rajoy with regards to the bailout prospects. The Spanish PM told us that it makes no sense to ask for a rescue if Spanish spreads stay the same. He also added that he’d want to know how much yields would fall with a rescue. Interestingly these headlines fail to provoke much weakness with the 10-year Spanish bond yields finishing the day 9bps lower at 5.66% despite a brief post-headline spike. The market doesn’t appear to be overly concerned on the timing of a Spanish aid request as long as the conditional backstop from ECB remains in place. This standoff can't last forever though and at some point the market will likely lose patience. This however doesn't seem to be imminent.

Beyond Spanish bonds and despite an uninspiring day for Euroland data, yesterday was overall a positive day for risky assets. Equity markets rallied on both sides of the Atlantic with the CAC, DAX and the S&P 500 finishing +0.87%, +0.70% and +0.79% respectively. US equities performance was helped by strength in cyclical sectors such as Energy (+1.57%), Financials (+1.21%) and Industrials (+1.10%). Commodities enjoyed a late surge into the final hours of US trading with Gold and Brent rallying +1.8% and +3.1% to $1716/oz and $111/bbl respectively. This was perhaps prompted by hopes of a President Obama victory and another term for Chairman Bernanke or at least someone in his mould.

Taking a slightly closer look at the data flow the final euro-area October services PMI fell slightly on the month driven by Germany’s headline PMI and a worse-than-expected reading for France. The good news is perhaps a better peripheral reading as Italian and Spanish services PMI edged higher in October to offset a weaker manufacturing sector. That said our economists noted that assuming no change for the rest of Q4 the October composite PMI would point to a GDP contraction of 0.5% qoq in Q4, below the -0.2% qoq that they are forecasting.

Looking at the day ahead, industrial output in Spain and Germany will be the main releases in Europe. The EU will also release its autumn economic forecasts later this morning while we might also hear from Draghi as he speaks at an event in Frankfurt at around midday. Merkel will also address the European Parliament this afternoon at 3.15pm London time before meeting PM Cameron at 10 Downing Street for a dinner later this evening. The key event though will likely be Greece’s parliamentary vote (likely to take place later tonight). It will be a quiet day as far as US data flow is concerned with US consumer credit and mortgage applications the only ones due. The Treasury will sell $24bn in 10-year notes though. In terms of earnings, BNP Paribas and Telefonica are some of the interesting names reporting. As for the US election, there will be a sigh of relief that uncertainty is out of the way and that the Fed are unlikely to have their wings clipped. However how long will it be before the market starts to price in the fiscal cliff scenarios?

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HobbyFarmer's picture

"The morning after."  It all seems like such a bad one night stand.....get it out!

 

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Russia said they would take us over without a shot.....and screw me if they just didn't do exactly that.

 

We've just transmitted the good news to Vladimir.

Precious's picture

Look at it this way. Obama doesn't have to kiss the asses of his manic liberal constitutents anymore. He's probably as sick of their big indignant mouths as anybody. 

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I've just got back from an all night party of fundraisers - only to come home and see a mountain of negativity on this blog. WHY OH WHY! Yes I voted for Obama. Yes if I couldn't have voted for Obama I would've voted Rommney.

I recently saw the new James Bond film - without giving out any spoilers it illustrates very well how those in the intelligence fields need the ability to act and to act right now, without bureaucrats and laws and discussions of liberties get in the way (the villans don't hang around for that nonsense). So thank God we have a president that supported the NDAA - a common sense law giving those in the intelligence community the powers they need to protect us.

I'm also proud that America elected the candidate most wanted by the rest of the world. This finally lays waste to our image from the Bush days as a grave threat to the rest of the world. Hopefully we can move forward with our allies (while also taking a harsh stance on Iran - and intervening where necessary) to build a liberal progressive system world wide.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Bad news amigo......the useful idiots always die first.

markmotive's picture

 

Really, how different were Obama and Romney? I vote for Big Bird. Now THAT's change.

Bill O'Reilly: "The White Establishment Is Now The Minority"

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/11/07/bill-oreilly-the-white-establis...


GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I voted for Minnie Mouse......cause Mickey is just so full of himself.

 

Flakmeister's picture

Yeah...

But she's fuckin'  Goofy....

Mad Mohel's picture

Bill O'Reilly: "The White Establishment Is Now The Minority"

LOL, afraid of picking cotton eh? He shouldn't worry I think he'll be long gone by that point.

ACP's picture

A more appropriate question would be "where do you live"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Target_of_opportunity

LongSoupLine's picture

Max, you're like a bad MDB reproduction. It's a fucking train wreck trying to read your stupidity. At least MDB's satire is entertaining.

Hobbleknee's picture

Why do you support war mongering and murder?

 

TeamDepends's picture

NDAA "common sense" and completely unconstitutional.  Those who don't know the Constitution will be taught by those that do.

Random's picture

Nice trolling, reminds me of the milliondollarbonus' better moments. Well done!

Zero Govt's picture

Yes Precious, Bumma can now go forth rape and loot (tax) the liberal middle classes for every penny they're worth ....it's the socialist way to bring prosperity to all (well the Politburo to be more specific, people go hang)

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If Newsweek was still in print....they'd probably proclaim we're all communists now.

 

Bam Bam has been berry berry good for Newsweek.

irishlink's picture

the people who financed Obama's campaign only gave up a few dollars that his generous wellfare policies gave them in the first place ie an 'investenent ' in their future . Brialliant strategy.

fonzannoon's picture

I can handle the Obama win. We all know it did not make a difference. But if this is the path then lets get the party started. I'm losing patience already. No more afternoon "ramps" and metal "knockdowns". Shit WTF is oil doing down this morning? All these facebook sheep that are hung over this morning got what they wanted. Now they need to understand what they really got.

UGrev's picture

If it zips.. they're firing past you. If it snaps.. they're firing at you. 

exi1ed0ne's picture

And if it goes whoop whoop whoop, thats artillery over your head.

UGrev's picture

Roger that.. dodging that.. 

KidHorn's picture

I agree. Oil is probably down because Obama is less likely to invade Iran than Romney.

It doesn't matter who won the election. Regardless of what either candidate has said, they both would maintain the staus quo.

DeadFred's picture

The new moon is next Monday and Israel now has the green light. How long will they wait? When will the Greeks default? Maybe soon. You're going to have to wait a few more days at least. Patience Grasshopper.

DeadFred's picture

The new moon is next Monday and Israel now has the green light. How long will they wait? When will the Greeks default? Maybe soon. You're going to have to wait a few more days at least. Patience Grasshopper.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

There's a glitch in the Matrix, DF.

bobnoxy's picture

Hey, nothing to worry about. It's only another four years. By then, you dumb shit right wingers will have gnashed your teeth to the gum line and will be on your way to that fatal stroke that will forever put you out of your misery.

Then you'll be enjoying the wonder of socialized medicine, signing up for Medicare and whatever other government assistance there is.

The best part for liberals like me is watching you all whining, bitching and moaning for another four, long years! HA!! Maybe running on a platform of rape being not such a bad thing wasn't a winner after all?

Oh, this is going to be much fun. Morning in America!!!

fonzannoon's picture

The death of the dollar is the one thing both parties have come together and agreed upon. At least Obama does not try to deny it. So let's get it moving.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Just another lemming, are we Bobnoxious? You just don't get it, or maybe you're new around here and haven't quite gotten around to doing your homework of actually reading the material posted here. So let me try to help you and the other newbies out.

1.) You're wrong about it being "another four years". We've just elected the last American president of the second American republic. The first American republic ended in 1788 when we passed the Constitution.

2.) We "dumb shit right wingers" are doing all we can to prepare for the day when out-of-control spending drives this once-great nation over the fiscal cliff. That day is at best two years away, maybe sooner. You will know we are there when the US dollar will be good for nothing but wiping your butt, (and there are much better designed paper products for that function).

3.) There is a very high probability that this president will be impeached, if not for Fast & Furious, then for Benghazi. If the Senate refuses to convict him then we will have a civil war. If the Senate does convict him, then we will have a civil war. Either way, Biden will never make president.

We now have a front row seat to the largest decimation of wealth the world has ever seen. There is nothing that can stop it now short of radical, massive and brutal reductions in the size of government spending, and maybe not even the intervention of ALL the world governments. The piper must be paid. When that much wealth disappears, those on the losing side of the equation will be ready to kill whomever they perceive as being at fault. The unprepared will starve to death. It's as simple, (if gruesome and horrible), as all that. So are you still of the mindset that says, "Hey, nothing to worry about!"?

Raymond Reason's picture

Getseegold....Legion was cast out of Russian, flew west and descended upon a herd of USDA swine.  They hate Vladimir, and only transmit threats of revenge. 

ihedgemyhedges's picture

My Chinese friend called me this morning and said "I'm just grad the erection is over."  I told him "I've been married 18 years.  I can tell you the erection was over about 10 years ago......"

old naughty's picture

In other words, not savouring the night before.

Bazinga's picture

Which morning after pill are folks choosing? The red or the blue...

exi1ed0ne's picture

They are both filled with roofies, so it doesn't matter.

augustusgloop's picture

but at least with obama you'll be able to send her to planned parent hood in a month rather than have take her on as a sister-wife. 

 

in the Service, one must a always choose the lesser of two weevils. 

HD's picture

While not much of a team red/blue partisan, (I think it's like deciding if you'd be better off having a massive stroke or advanced cancer) I wonder if the GOP will take a moment and think about what just happened:

Obama didn't just win - he crushed Romney

Elizabeth Warren took out Scott Brown

Colorado legalized Mary Jane

Tammy Baldwin is the first openly gay senator

Jessee Jackson Jr. won in a landslide despite being completely MIA and under investigation

The outspoken Allen West lost

Yet the GOP went out of it's way to ostracize Ron Paul, (who dominated the youth vote and appealed to many on team blue) that supports legalized marijuana, withdraw from Afghanistan and would put the Fed on a leash.

Something to think about team Red.

UGrev's picture

Fuck Team Red. You know what? Fuck them more than team Blue. Fuck them ALL for being a bunch of scared, little, pussies. "OMG if you don't vote for Romney..Obama is gonna win.. and we're all gonna diiiiieeee!!!".  To ALL on team Red. You ARE the problem. You voted for the game. Just remember.. I voted Ron Paul. I voted to make sure the chains came off. THANK YOU, for voting to keep them on not only yourselves, but me as well. THANK YOU.. as in FUCK YOU WITH A RUSTY WIRE BRUSH!!!

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OMG if you don't vote for Romney..Obama is gonna win

 

Just happened amigo.....thanks a lot for that. If you could clean up the potty mouth a tad I'm sure we'd all appreciate that.

 

UGrev's picture

Free speech, mother fucker. I voted for it. You voted for chains. THANKS FOR THAT. If you could grow a pair of balls instead of being a scared little person, we'd all appreciate it.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Who told you who I voted for? That's suppose to be secret!

Harbanger's picture

You say you voted for "free speech" and he voted for "chains", but we all lost, the statists won... this round.  The fundamental transformation is well underway and the fun begins, they will inevitably crush our economy and our liberties in short order.

UGrev's picture

I cannot contest that. However, I can say that the fault lay squarely with the republicans for being such fools. 

drchris's picture

Warren is the only problem I have with that list.  She invented the "you didn't build that" and she doesn't claim it's out of context.  

drchris's picture

For the down voters:

http://www.nationalreview.com/agenda/278106/elizabeth-warrens-quote-reihan-salam#

 

Of course, if reason behind the success of businesses was roads/police/public education, then why do any fail?  Those are the common factors.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Having a nice conversation with yourself I see.....could you speed it up a tad? We've got stuff to do today.

drchris's picture

Please feel free to ignore me.  

Flakmeister's picture

Been there, done that...

UGrev's picture

Congratulations America.. you really love your fucking slave-chains.

nmewn's picture

It could have been worse, Roseanne Barr could have won ;-)