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The Eight Scariest Charts For Equity Bulls

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear Mark Twain's infamous quote that "history does not repeat, but it does rhyme" has never been so apt. The following eight charts suggest the rhythm is getting louder and louder. How is it possible? It's nonsense? Well at the heart of the markets, it is still us humans and our endearing greed, fear, and heuristic biases that drive the flows... trade accordingly.

 

The current price action in the S&P 500 is eerily similar to the movement leading up to the collapse in 1987... (via Bloomberg)

 

The Dow is also tracking this move almost perfectly over the last two years...(via Citi)

 

The next three charts are particularly concerning...

Here is the Dow leading up to the 1987 drop - showing its distance from the 55-week average and the collapse once it crossed... (via Citi)

 

here is an unnamed stock's price action (percentage change) over the past three years...(via Citi)

 

and AAPL's price appreciation from the lows in 2009 and its 55-week average...(via Bloomberg)

 

It's not just 1987... Here is the Dow analog again the 1977-78 period and 1905-1910 period... (via Citi)

 

and the Dow Transports are playing out a very similar pattern to the 1960s-70s... (via Citi)

 

And a Bonus Chart - for those who prefer to look at Bond Analogs... Here is the current move in 10Y US Treasury yields overlaid on 1992's movement... spooky no? and somewhat fits with a view of weakness into year-end, downgrade on debt-ceiling and collapse... (via Citi)

 

Machiavelli accounts for this 'repetitive' oscillation by arguing that virtù (valor and political effectiveness) produces peace, peace brings idleness (ozio), idleness disorder, and disorder rovina (ruin). In turn, from rovina springs order, from order virtù, and from this, glory and good fortune.

Machiavelli, as had the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, saw human nature as remarkably stable - steady enough for the formulation of rules of political behavior. Machiavelli wrote in his Discorsi:

Whoever considers the past and the present will readily observe that all cities and all peoples... ever have been animated by the same desires and the same passions; so that it is easy, by diligent study of the past, to foresee what is likely to happen in the future in any republic, and to apply those remedies that were used by the ancients, or not finding any that were employed by them, to devise new ones from the similarity of events.

 

“Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.” — André Gide

Charts: Citi and Bloomberg (as marked above for clarification - not all charts are sourced from Tom Fitzpatrick of Citi)

 

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Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:43 | 2961901 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

I'd die one happy son of a bitch!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:49 | 2961937 ACP
ACP's picture

Here's another reason......looks like someone is getting the green light...

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/first-on-cnn-iranian-jets-fire-on-u-s-drone/?hpt=hp_t3

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:57 | 2961975 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

It happened a week ago, though everyone waited until after the election to disclose it.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:05 | 2962042 Zadok
Zadok's picture

That's a lot of cooperation from an 'enemy' (Iran).

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:15 | 2962071 no taste
no taste's picture

Those charts are nothing compared to Karl Rove's influence.  The comment on the youtube video is for you, Karl.  

 

 

Karl Rove, this is free fall: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD06SAf0p9A

http://howstupidare.blogspot.com/

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:15 | 2962105 ACP
ACP's picture

How many times are you going to post that, Huffington Troll?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:26 | 2962161 no taste
no taste's picture

Karl Rove's defeat is one of the few bright spots of the recent election.  We all need something to celebrate.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:32 | 2962189 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

ACP, you have to admit Rove is el dousche supremo...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:35 | 2962205 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Turd Blossom, is that you?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:48 | 2962251 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Yes, but 1987 was clearly a buying opportunity and "nothing" has changed since then. sarc/

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:24 | 2962678 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Name one stock that will keep up with the coming rate of devaluation...

(Silence)

That's what I thought

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 23:03 | 2963074 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bullard is citing research and claiming that Fed Monetary Policy may be considerably looser than they had thought, with a -5% NIRP, essentially (gee, really Bullard....couldn't be...The Bernank says all is right with policy, even as that policy is suffocating the economy).

This appears to be consistent with the move the BOE made in calling off QE, as they concluded it was ineffective.

Shit's going to get real, really fast, bitchez.

Fed's Bullard: Current Monetary Policy May Be Easier Than Thought

New thinking on monetary policy suggests the Federal Reserve's current stance may be even more aggressive than many now understand, a U.S. central bank official said Thursday.

Recent academic work suggests the policies now being pursued by the Fed "may currently be easier than the recommendations" suggested by traditional rules of thumb like the Taylor rule, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said.

Relying on the work of Leo Krippner of the central bank of New Zealand, Mr. Bullard said this new thinking suggests the policies now being pursued by the Fed leave the funds rate as equivalent to a negative-5% rate.

"This value is considerably more negative than values recommended by common monetary policy rules," Mr. Bullard said. This so called "shadow rate," the official said, is "currently more than 300 basis points lower than the rate recommended by the Taylor rule."

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 01:39 | 2963482 Spirit Of Truth
Fri, 11/09/2012 - 02:56 | 2963586 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

ZEROHEDGE, WAKE UP, ARGENTINA IS COLLAPSING ON THE VERGE OF HYPERINFLATION RIGHT NOW.  3 to 6 months MAX.

https://www.google.com/search?q=argentina+8n&hl=en&safe=images&tbo=d&rlz...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 03:48 | 2963629 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Equity bulls.

Making retards feel better about themselves. Everyday.

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 05:11 | 2963703 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

fed is going to make sure retards have a good time until 2015.

 

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 08:01 | 2963818 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

EEEEEEEEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEE

TTTTTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKKKKKKKKKKKKKKING

DIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIPPPPPPPPPP

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 07:17 | 2963780 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

UNFORTUNATLY WRONG!

I live in Argentina.

The protest are mainly for thee reasons.
1) half the country hates Christina
2) they/we DO NOT want to change the constitution for a THIRD TERM.
3) people have held US dollars as capital preservation in Argentina for decades. It is nearly impossible to get your hands on dollars...housing market has topped and stopped.....people do not want to own a currency that cannot be sold ANYWHERE. Very hard to buy pms..hint...people buy LAND..still cheap...

Conclusion.
Christina will not achieve third term, and a new mother fucker will come in. sorry but ARGENTINES have HAD IT with REVOLUTIONs. ALL they want is anything that looks a little like democracy...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 13:26 | 2964905 dugorama
dugorama's picture

GLD?

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:38 | 2962218 no taste
no taste's picture

News flash: Karl Rove's organization short on cash.  Rovian trolls desperately seeking employment elsewhere.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 03:48 | 2963628 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

No-taste... you have only been on hear for about 20 weeks?  What you should have noticed was that the prevailing argument hear on ZH is that there is little discernible difference between either Team Blue or Team Red.  Another theme is that NOTHING can or will be done by TPTB (add the current Prez/Puppet/Pet) to mitigate the exponential rise to the eventual day of reckoning.  So you should make whatever preparations you can.

I used to feel kind of sorry for useful idiots like you.  You so passionately volunteer your time to promote your idol.  Now, all I can see is a vision of you enjoying your cat food (reserved for the privileged card members like you) in the FEMA camp when the time comes......and that time is coming.

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 06:58 | 2963771 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Who is the democratic party's equivalent to Karl Rove?

 I read on Zh recently that

(a) it doesn't matter who is elected, it is all the same.

(b) but it's all Obama's fault

(c) and Obama won, so we're fucked

 

 

 

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 08:12 | 2963829 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

In that light, here's a classic rant from Judge Napolitano, must read for ZH'ers...

 

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/08/four-more-years-what-is-going-on-here/

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:13 | 2962348 ACP
ACP's picture

He's a douche, but not stupid. Getting the 2nd worst President in history re-elected is not an easy task.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:26 | 2962400 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Totally with you, brother.  And the way he kneecapped Ron Paul earlier this year would make Tanya Harding proud.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:03 | 2962506 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

How old are you ? 12? Try Johnson, Nixon & Carter on. Those three fucks were: a stupid crook; a weirdo crook and a stupid weirdo? Then we have the shit-for-brains in the WH now. Come to think of it Georgie looks a little better now. Just how long will some of the blow-jobbers on here continue to blame him? I know, I know, he caused the dot.splat fiasco and the 9/11 shindig was his idea too and of course, he sent the Navy out to heat up the Gulf so Katrina could flood out the intellectuals in NO but really, what is it you are blaming him for? Really?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2962566 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Troll....

Everybody knows Dick Cheney was the president...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:10 | 2962650 no taste
no taste's picture

Looking at all the down arrows, it sure seems like Turd Blossom has many ZH accounts and nothing much to do.

http://howstupidare.blogspot.com/2012/11/how-stupid-are-karl-rove-and-friends.html

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:23 | 2962672 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Well, he's looking for a job and there aren't many opportunities out there.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 04:01 | 2963640 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

With that CV?.. he should at least get to through the online selection phase for Wal-Mart.  Will need to fine tune his LinkedIn profile to get the Recruitment Algos to find him.

Perhaps the Prez (what his name?) could give him an entry cleaning gig at the WH, work up from there. A bipartisan gesture?

Just trying to help.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:38 | 2962738 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I do not doubt for a moment that there are people that are employed by CrossRoads GPS paid to post here...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 07:01 | 2963775 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

two wars off the books?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 13:30 | 2964922 dugorama
dugorama's picture

W looks good?  really/  lying liar starts wars, ruins economy, lets guard down and gets 9/11 (or did 9/11 - either way he's scum), preens on aircraft carriers in flight suit and you think he looks better than Obamy?  you are blind to facts

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:19 | 2962662 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Bush ? 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:31 | 2962890 Overfed
Overfed's picture

2nd worst? You'll be singing a different tune by 2016, if not sooner.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:40 | 2962717 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Karl Rove, like much of the RINO/Republican establishment, exists, apparently, to prevent a true conservative from gaining ascendancy in the Republican Party. It's almost as if the RINOs are the PLAN B to the Democrats' PLAN A. TPTB seem to prefer NWO/internationalist types from the Democrat party (PLAN A), and the fallback position is to get some NWO/internationalist type from the RINO pool (PLAN B). True conservative/small government/constitutional government types need not apply. Any that are get visciously attacked by the likes of Rove, complementing the similar activities of the Democrats. Look at the effect Rove had on conservatives/libertarians like Ron Paul, Palin, Bachmann, etc. Look at what the Republican establishment did to Allen West, using redistricting to remove him from Congress. (No snarky comments about those persons mentioned, please, I'm not evaluating their credentials or ideas per se, just using them as illustrations of conservatives attacked by the Republican establishment.)

Indeed, the meme common on ZH that there is really no ideological distinction between establishment Rs and Ds seems to be illustrated by the actions of Rove and Friends.

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:58 | 2962775 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Geeser it is so obvious..that no one in media will talk about it..one party two heads both controlled by NWO..papa bush was so bold to state it yet many refuse to see it..R or D dr rd RRRRDDDDD, why did 15 million voters not vote this go round for R OR D?? some of us are waking up. Fuck Rove bush and mccain and mitt..obuma is one of them,democrats are the most clueless of all.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 04:31 | 2963677 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

it is not who the president is, it is who the voters are.

In iceland voters took action.

In America, voters watch TV.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 06:33 | 2963756 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

An island far from anyone, surrounded by ice cold water, plainly educates that there is reality, and it will kill you.
Blivotting you way past the 300lb mark in your section 8, you don't notice anything until Dommino's rejects your for delivery pizza and breadsticks for 5 with 2 2-liter diet Coke because the EBT card be no damn good. Only then.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:12 | 2962835 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

I hardly think Rove or anyone on either side of the political football that is set for life, considers him/herself defeated. Until one is sitting in a hard labor prison, they all go to bed smile on their face and wake up the same way.

 

On the other hand, their are millions of citizens that might fit that description, from both or neither party - you know, the citizens that get screwed no matter who is in power.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:33 | 2962195 RSloane
RSloane's picture

No kidding. +1

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:21 | 2962132 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

voting machines hacked?

why isn't anybody talking about the fraud?

 

CA Prop 37 GMO food labeling initiative defeated

http://www.examiner.com/article/ca-prop-37-gmo-food-labeling-initiative-...

 

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:47 | 2962748 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Why talk about hacked voting machines when there are so many other things of more importance to discuss. Like Americans abandoned and killed in Benghazi, or aid to Al Qaeda in Syria, or Mexicans killed as a result of Fast and Furious, or billions of dollars stolen by Obama bundlers (think MF Global/Corzine). Those are much more important issues than mere voting irregularities.

What's that? We're not talking about those important issues, either? Well, then, I guess that they're not so important after all. At least we got to repeatedly see Christie give Obama a hug recently, that sure was important. (Not that I'm minimizing the tragedy in NJ, the state in which I grew up.)

If something is important the MSM will let us know, as soon as they get the marching orders from their political handlers.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:40 | 2962444 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

If you were Iran, who would YOU want in the White House?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:57 | 2962771 cjbosk
cjbosk's picture

A muslim negro?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:02 | 2962798 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You said it, not us.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 04:11 | 2963648 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Epic FAIL.  The Iranian's would be praying for Bush III and the sheeple to say NO MORE WAR - at least they have a sporting chance!

However, now they completed fucked.  When President "O" say's  " My fellow Amerikans, as I promised to you, those EYE-RAIN-NEYONS will NOT be allowed to get a Nu-cu-lar weapon... the sheeple will cry YES let's turn 'em ALL into GLASS with our Nu-cu-lar arsenal of PEACE!

WTF this will not end well... I scared the shit outta myself.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:35 | 2962896 Overfed
Overfed's picture

If I wanted to be left alone and traded with fairly and freely? Ron Paul. If I wanted to be bombed? Anybody else.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:10 | 2962080 Dalago
Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:57 | 2961982 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

There's only ONE LITTLE ISSUE with all of the above: where the fuck was the Bernanke variable in any of that??????? Listen, great charts and good intentions I'm sure, but these days the central planning has perverted everything and charts, well, they're nice to look at and think you've got something figured out there. But in reality we have no fucking idea. This market could tank harder and faster than anything ever witnessed or it could slow burn levitate a la Japan for a thousand years....

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:28 | 2962170 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

 

Are you implying that central planning is something new?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:40 | 2962194 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

at this unprecedented level of meddling, do you really need to ask that question?

no free markets = no freedom. as what you can do for yourself, far from the gov.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:46 | 2962741 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

While I agree that we live in a different age of intervention (Fuck the Bernank), don't discount the algo models that are controlling this farcical casino we refer to as a market.  IOW, humans are no longer making the buy/sell decisions these days (you know that as well as I do).  These charts, however, are most certaintly being used as 'potential outcomes' to the children that are actually writting code for the algos.  

If the 'charts' breakdown, the algos will go bidless and fist fuck themselves to death trying to 'get out'.  I'm guessing that they'll be 'programmed' to reverse their position, jump on board, and get us to a mean quicker than you think.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 22:46 | 2963126 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

until algos are purely self-replicating, there is much room for human idiocy. and these algos are essentially allowed to run amok precisely because gov is too busy destroying our freedoms rather than protecting them. that is the scary shit, markets collapsing and levitating ain't nothing in comparison.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 00:20 | 2963356 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Here's a provocative thought experiment:

List the countries as of 2003 that did not have fractional reserve central banks controlling the volume of their fiat supply.

Now list the governments that formerly did not have fractional reserve central banks controlling their fiat supply that have been invaded & overthrow, overthrown by coupes with help from outside sources, or otherwise toppled in the last 9 years,

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 00:28 | 2963367 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

until algos are purely self-replicating.. backtesting

these algos are essentially allowed to run amok.. agreed

gov is too busy destroying our freedoms rather than protecting them...  true, but not relative to the current market manipulation.

that is the scary shit... agree whole heartedly.

 

I'm just happy that it only took 2 days after more 'hope and change V2.0'  to get me back to scratch.  Looking forward to 4 more years.


 


Fri, 11/09/2012 - 00:36 | 2963373 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

i'd think about this a bit more :"gov is too busy destroying our freedoms rather than protecting them...  true, but not relative to the current market manipulation." i realize certain gov created banking cartel entities purposely define themselves as neither private nor public, depending on how/when they must deflect the illegality of their operations, but that little loophole notwithstanding...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 01:48 | 2963504 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

In a toe-to-toe between Bernake and the algos I'm betting on the algos. Both have flawed programs guiding their every move but the algos are FAST!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:16 | 2962548 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Central planning ALWAYS fails. It's just a question of when.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:51 | 2962754 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

It's also a question of how much pain and suffering are caused by the arrogant incompetence of the central planners.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:54 | 2962290 slickrock
slickrock's picture

Two Iranian fighter jets couldn't catch (let alone hit with multiple missles) an unmanned drone?  Those guys really do suck!!!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:36 | 2962431 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

They were warning shots. Don't be obtuse, missiles are heat seeking and would have hit the drone if fired.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:13 | 2962656 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Who the fuck would fire a warning shot at drone ? Obtuse ? Don't be a fucking moron .

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:51 | 2962756 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Shooting down the drone would be suicide - Iran knows this.  But a near miss would definitely garner attention, don't ya think? 

 

They didn't miss downing an unmanned drone because of ability.

 

Don't be a fucking moron.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:56 | 2962768 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

They shot down my paper airplane with a rubber band. Terrorists/guilty/bomb em

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:44 | 2962924 fuu
fuu's picture

They captured one not too long ago.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 05:48 | 2963729 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

That was a give-away.  Obama's gesture to Ahmadinajad.  We should see that reversed engineered within this month.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:43 | 2962728 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

Not necessarily warning shots.   It was fired on by two Russian made ground attack aircraft (SU-25s).   The fitted gun was originally a 30mm anti-tank cannon, although it's unclear what's on there now.   They put the same anti-tank cannon on the Mi-24 Hind attack helicopter.

Wrong tool for the job, and they didn't get lucky.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:41 | 2962600 repete
repete's picture

The drone's name "Maddox" of all things

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 08:43 | 2967467 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

iranian (or U.S.) jets shoot down drone over the gulf of tonkin.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:49 | 2962608 vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

Tyler, you are comparing AAPL's to INDU's.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:44 | 2961909 realtick
realtick's picture

Nice charts

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:45 | 2961914 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:53 | 2962761 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Who gets to lose his head this time? I have my candidates, but the DHS may be reading this.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:47 | 2961916 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I thought idleness was "ouzo" (?).

What's the problem?  1987 was a pretty good year for me.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:04 | 2962033 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

I think I had exactly 2 public hairs at the time.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:10 | 2962082 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

You should keep that information private.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:35 | 2962203 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

No, he didn't say "pubic hairs," he said "public hairs...y'know, the ones people see.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:47 | 2961924 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

S&P in danger of worst case scenario 1150 and DOW might go to 10,000? Not too scary to me, hell we were just there a short time ago, big deal. I guess wake me when the S&P plunges to 500 or so then there'd be something remarkable.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:00 | 2961999 Conman
Conman's picture

Dow 10k is scary when you are uber levered bull tard. Ask Penis(Dick) Bove's employer what happens when leverage and uber bullishness collides.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:06 | 2962041 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well yea...and then if that is the case DOW 10K will be for only a minute as it proceeds down to 6K or whatever...bringing into play my other comment lower down.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:04 | 2962036 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Bots don't get scared.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:54 | 2962289 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Not true.  Chuck Norris terrifies them.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:21 | 2962666 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

but do they go out and party w/ electric Hos aftter work?

(sorry philip k. dick)

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:48 | 2961927 GraveyardSpiral
GraveyardSpiral's picture

Thanks for THAT Tyler!!!!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:48 | 2961928 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So what you are saying is gold at $10K sometime around early 2014?  Wait, these charts didn't say it, but Peter Schiff (and me parroting him) did,  If one believes Peter Schiff's parity of gold and DOW at some point, then that would be the case.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:50 | 2961940 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

$180 silver then too?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:37 | 2962210 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

$180 silver? You wish! JPM would launch nuclear war before they let that happen

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:55 | 2962293 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Dont put it past them either.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:17 | 2962551 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

In that case £360!!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:56 | 2961969 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

2014?  Hell, we'll all be in Barry's re-edutainment camps by then.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:54 | 2962481 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Except you reds, of course.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:21 | 2962665 seek
seek's picture

That's only a year away. Logistically there's no way they can handle more than about 10K disappear-ees.

Don't forget, due to the NDAA's elimination of due process, the rational response to someone taking you away is to fight back. This will greatly complicate re-edutainment admissions. That law was a dumb move on so many levels it's astounding.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:34 | 2962704 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Testify

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:01 | 2961998 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

TBH I get nervous as shit when I hear guys like Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Stephen Leeb etc... pumping gold. The spiel these guys lay down sometimes sounds like they are fattening up the sheep. You know what happens next.

Oh and I forgot to add Sprott on there too.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:12 | 2962092 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I tend to disagree for many reasons. 

1. Chart of reserve currency status and their duration.

2. Housing bust predictions.

3. Preminitions of QE.

4. The fact that so many still say those guys are nutz.  nice contrarian indicator.

5. The fact that the FED has no exit strategy.

6. The chart of gold and the US debt ceiling.

7. The US is full of fools that want free shit, so Congress and el Presidente will oblige.

8. The market share of investors in gold is still so miniscule.  Just ask around who owns either gold or silver.

9. Equity market will scare the sheep with increased volitility.

10. Global repatriation of gold from ECB, FED, et al.

11. Real estate's continued decline.

12. Bank savings offer shit for return.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:29 | 2962155 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

13. negative real interest rates (ZIRP)

14. QEinfinity

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:24 | 2962675 seek
seek's picture

15. They're putting their own money at risk and not begging others to invest with them.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:33 | 2962177 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Good sound reasons. I just sometimes get suspicious of some of the enthusiasm these assorted characters show.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:41 | 2962233 marathonman
marathonman's picture

It's hard not to be suspicious when Schiff owns a company selling gold, but he is (so far) seems on the up and up.  Want to deal with a bunch of thieving scumbags, then call Goldline and let them tell you steer you to nuimismatics.  Ingram, Beck, and Thompson all shill for those bastards.  That kills their credibility with me.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 03:12 | 2963604 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

>>> 5. The fact that the FED has no exit strategy. <<<  I think the Fed does have an exit strategy. All the money "lent" to the TBTF's is for very short durations (30 days or less). The Fed did this so that the banks must keep the money on thier books, and not lend it out (makes the banks books "look great") This also means that they must (Fed money)  be rolled over very frequently. The fed need only NOT roll over those loans.  It's all smoke and mirrors for us so we don't start a run on the banks. But the banks now can use the little that is left of their money to play with, as they don't have to hold some money (by law they must keep a percentage of their loaned out money in the bank) back, just in case 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:49 | 2961931 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

What was that 10 yr bond yield at in 1987?

Today, it's 1.59%. Something tells me there's not going to be a huge stampede out of stocks and into bonds...therefore, no massive selloff here.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:53 | 2961946 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, I also suspect we wont see a 'sell off'....what people will see one morning when they turn on their computer trading platforms is 'Markets Suspended Until Further Notice'...thats all. Then when they try to cash out their holdings....'Oops....looks like you've been Corzined, oh well get in line'.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:00 | 2962005 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

How about a stampede out of stocks into gold? Or Swiss Francs, or negotiable CDs, or any other safe haven with a good chance for a return OF investment?

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:02 | 2962021 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well if everyone wants to stampede out of stock markets for whatever reason thats fine with me.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:35 | 2962426 chdwlch1
chdwlch1's picture

Also explains why they've (our beloved regulators) have been trying to make Money Market Funds less "liquid".  Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide!!!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:04 | 2962034 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Yup, if assets fall much from here, the entire kit and kaboodle is coming down. The banks will dry up, which simply won't be allowed and that, the real printing is about to begin. There will be no worse of an investment than dollars and bonds. Even over priced stocks will go up up up  and away (this does not mean they're a good investment) as the dollar falls through the floor.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:34 | 2962200 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

 

Do you think that maybe the sheep are being primed for a "meaningful" devaluation?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 03:18 | 2963610 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Leave no cash in your accounts. I have to write checks every time I buy something, and they have to send me a check every time I sell. Not good but I trust the FDIC more now than Corzine and friends.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:02 | 2962019 Conman
Conman's picture

Whats worse a) being in cash at negative 3%ish b) bonds at 1% or c) losing it all when Zynga goes bankrupt.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:09 | 2962072 NitneLiun
NitneLiun's picture

You've got a good point, but investors aren't going to rotate into bonds for the yield. They are going to rotate into Treasuries for the inevitable QE3,4,5 ......

At some point all this QE nonsense has got to crush 10yr yields by 100 basis points, right? Right?

 

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:20 | 2962126 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The fed can hold the 10 yr to whatever it wants by printing more money to buy more bonds, and it will hold them very low, straight into hyperinflation.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 02:01 | 2963527 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

That's why when the stuff hits the fan you don't short treasuries you short corporate bonds. Both moved up in price together but do you think Ben will defend high yield? Wait for the first missiles to fly. Sunday night maybe? It's got the Veteran's Day theme, the new moon and why not counter 9/11 with 11/11? After all everyone knows it was the Iranians that attacked the Towers, or was it the Iraqis? Darn, where's Fox News when you need to get your facts straight?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:49 | 2961934 harami
harami's picture

This time is different, we have Obama! /s

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:56 | 2961966 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

and bernanke's printing press.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:49 | 2961935 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I really doubt there are too many equity bulls on this site. Most of us have learned our lesson and own "real" currency and related miners. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:28 | 2962406 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

yes, my miners are up 30-40% since summer, and where's the out-of-the-blue, blind-side left hook coming from? 

That's my 'safe' money, otherwise I've spent 9 years living in a tent in the jungle mining like hell...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:53 | 2961952 HellZero
HellZero's picture

After months of low volume ramps ups, the rats are finally jumping ship Strangely just the US mkts for now, Europe strangely not following suit for now

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:50 | 2962467 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

When I was on the sell side we called this kind of market a "to-whom-er", as in sell to whom? The algos have been trying to suck the hoi polloi in with little buy programs. Now that they can't hold it any more they appear to be running for the crapper. The trick is volume - always bigger on the sell side, always faster. Like diarrhea.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:54 | 2961953 oldman
oldman's picture

Yeahbut

The end of this show is going to be much different than the 1987 game---this is hundreds of times that little game.

I don't know how it will end, but I really feel privileged to be here to see the show.

I coulldn't buy a share in 1987---everything went to 'family'. The market makers did nothing but wait us out----it was the endgame for most oldtimers---they saw it for what it was and were completely disgusted by what they saw. These were smart, honest, and princpled people.

I was lucky to have been among them and they taught me a lot that no longer applies   om

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:55 | 2961962 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

just what is up with vix?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:46 | 2962246 RSloane
RSloane's picture

This is from the comments section at Daneric's:

"Is the VIX some kinda joke? either parabolic tomorrow to make up for today's lost ground or it's being truthful, not because we ramp but the big players aren't buying protection because they are already soooo positioned short, who needs protection."

Dunno if that's informative for you or not.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:53 | 2962479 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The vix is a measurement of the volataility of the variance in a 3o day smoothed average of option prices. The volataility in the variance showed up yesterday as the price of purchasing put options rose. We are not seeing any panic yet. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:05 | 2962514 walküre
walküre's picture

vix is a crap shoot. better odds in Vegas

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:19 | 2962661 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Only with craps and 21

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:04 | 2962512 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The BTFD  mentality has not been injured enough for panic selling yet. Once the BFTD slows the VIX will start to act more like a warped opposite mirror of the market. The vix will glide easily over 30 once the panic sets in. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:56 | 2961963 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah but it's different this time........

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:02 | 2962023 oldman
oldman's picture

Yeah, Doc,

It is MUCH DIFFERENT!

In SCALE------

That is the only reason it is interesting because otherwise I've seen it before and it is not so interesting on smaller scales

Keep your head down, brother, the shit is going to keep flying            om

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:09 | 2962339 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Doc and I were talking about how similar all of this felt the other day, down to intuitive interpretation of data. What makes it interesting for me is: its like an outraged stampeding bull elephant is charging the Fed and markets, and everyone is out of bullets. So, do you want the elephant tusk up your ass or up your nose? Its going to be bloody either way.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:22 | 2962862 oldman
oldman's picture

RSloane,

I am not going to get close enough to the elephant to get any blood on this oldman. I just am going to sit here night after night and watch what happens. Life is too easy to complicate it by playing games where the deck is stacked against anyone but the house.

I am enjoying the collapse that began in 1987 continue on its merry way. This is just another Zen moment in a universe full of such things.

BTW, elephants like peanuts, so always have some with you       om

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 22:36 | 2963100 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

You talkin to me?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:57 | 2961979 Mattress Money
Mattress Money's picture

i think it maybe a short trap, i dont play after losing 200K,  I know the minute i decide to buy puts the market will rise 27%

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:01 | 2962010 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Any 'short' out there that does not know by now to take his 3%-4% and bail has got to be retarded.

But I think this post-election may be different, its a new game I suspect.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:26 | 2962154 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

When the most batshit doomers here (myself included), don't believe the market can possibly go down, it's a pretty strong contrarian indicator IMO.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:06 | 2962520 walküre
walküre's picture

I was about to go long before I punched myself in the face.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:22 | 2962671 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

That's just funny. Thanks for the laugh.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:35 | 2962204 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Obama's new wealth tax, legislators not required. I was wondering what that big red sell ES button was doing on his Oval Office desk...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:01 | 2962009 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

Sorry, did you say something?  I wasn't listening...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:03 | 2962029 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm only surprised that after 2 market down days, we havent gotten any QE rumors from the FED yet? Certainly must be a new post election new paradigm here.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:48 | 2962463 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

LOL, can hardly wait for FarceBerg's coming collapse. 19 handle today.

  • November 13th: 1.332 billion shares, 49% of shares outstanding.
  • December 13th: 124 million shares, 5% of shares outstanding.
  • May 17th, 2013: 47 million shares, 2% of shares outstanding.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-lockup-release-2012-8#ixzz2BfqwKz6o

  • Thu, 11/08/2012 - 23:46 | 2963277 ReactionToClose...
    ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

    Facebook is an out in the open scam ... ask yourself ... what is their biz model?   Fools/people willingly forever giving up personal private marketable data .... sooner or later even the cattle herd & move .... then Farceberg is a another top 5 bank scam (of course Barry Ritholz along with Aaron Sorkin will tout it to the end).  But never forget that Donald Graham CEO of Washington Post, friend of Warren Buffett, was The Chief Enabler to the Zuckerbergs.  It is all there if anyone cares to do basic research ... such as read public information.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:05 | 2962045 Conman
    Conman's picture

    Holy dotcom bubble 2.0 is confirmed - priceline buys kayak? whats next facebook buys isntagram? oh waitt... fuck.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:07 | 2962055 SheepDog-One
    SheepDog-One's picture

    'Isntagram'....sounds like a real shady coin shop.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:06 | 2962050 Spastica Rex
    Spastica Rex's picture

    You know, even if stocks lost 5% every day, it would take them forever to get to zero.

    Buy.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:08 | 2962060 Conman
    Conman's picture

    Whats to say a stock couldn't drop 99% in a day. Happened before. just saying.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:09 | 2962075 Spastica Rex
    Spastica Rex's picture

    Still a buy.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:12 | 2962084 Conman
    Conman's picture

    True, until it isnt. Heard lehman was a buy too. Kodak. Etc etc etc etc etc. My dollar dont buy what it used to 10 years ago but i dont have to worry that it will dissapear out of my wallet over the weekend.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:13 | 2962097 Spastica Rex
    Spastica Rex's picture

    I'm joking.

    Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:26 | 2962158 falak pema
    falak pema's picture

    can't remember Kayser with a pipe. 

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