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The Eight Scariest Charts For Equity Bulls
It would appear Mark Twain's infamous quote that "history does not repeat, but it does rhyme" has never been so apt. The following eight charts suggest the rhythm is getting louder and louder. How is it possible? It's nonsense? Well at the heart of the markets, it is still us humans and our endearing greed, fear, and heuristic biases that drive the flows... trade accordingly.
The current price action in the S&P 500 is eerily similar to the movement leading up to the collapse in 1987... (via Bloomberg)
The Dow is also tracking this move almost perfectly over the last two years...(via Citi)
The next three charts are particularly concerning...
Here is the Dow leading up to the 1987 drop - showing its distance from the 55-week average and the collapse once it crossed... (via Citi)
here is an unnamed stock's price action (percentage change) over the past three years...(via Citi)
and AAPL's price appreciation from the lows in 2009 and its 55-week average...(via Bloomberg)
It's not just 1987... Here is the Dow analog again the 1977-78 period and 1905-1910 period... (via Citi)
and the Dow Transports are playing out a very similar pattern to the 1960s-70s... (via Citi)
And a Bonus Chart - for those who prefer to look at Bond Analogs... Here is the current move in 10Y US Treasury yields overlaid on 1992's movement... spooky no? and somewhat fits with a view of weakness into year-end, downgrade on debt-ceiling and collapse... (via Citi)
Machiavelli accounts for this 'repetitive' oscillation by arguing that virtù (valor and political effectiveness) produces peace, peace brings idleness (ozio), idleness disorder, and disorder rovina (ruin). In turn, from rovina springs order, from order virtù, and from this, glory and good fortune.
Machiavelli, as had the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, saw human nature as remarkably stable - steady enough for the formulation of rules of political behavior. Machiavelli wrote in his Discorsi:
Whoever considers the past and the present will readily observe that all cities and all peoples... ever have been animated by the same desires and the same passions; so that it is easy, by diligent study of the past, to foresee what is likely to happen in the future in any republic, and to apply those remedies that were used by the ancients, or not finding any that were employed by them, to devise new ones from the similarity of events.
“Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.” — André Gide
Charts: Citi and Bloomberg (as marked above for clarification - not all charts are sourced from Tom Fitzpatrick of Citi)
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OK, that just went WAY over my head, Falak.
if there is a Kayser Sozee here at ZH who is also TD and is the deus ex machina of all the kinky news we get printed here under his avatar as TD; all the while he is Clark Kent with his pipe and droll as hell, then you know who is superman of ZH, when he isn't the guy with the pipe...Capito...double identity like double indemnity...Now that was a great film with Barbara Stanwyck...just like Usual Suspects...
I'm just a story writer...
OMG. I'm glad I didn't have you as a student when I was an English teacher. It would have been like having James Joyce.
It's Ward Cleaver....
Which is why there is a special place in hell for Bernanke for making grandpa herb and granma betsy move their retirement money into this bullshit.
It would never get to zero though...
Bankruptcy is not zero? Buy some SPX!
But you could, if you held said stock.
But you could, if you held said stock.
Enron is zero
I think TD is Kayser Sozee, the ZH thread gets more and more like usual suspects; we are in a thriller going deeper into the MAze.
Watch out for a guy with a limp!
Hah! Good stuff, Falak, +1s
Do they not delist them at some point?
That's the most bullish thing I've seen all week. That idiot from Citi wheels out these sort of charts every time that market has a two day crap-out. They are totally meaningless.
I think we might be able to find a chicken entrails analysis for you, if you prefer.
I can also call my astrologer.
SIGNS AND PORTENTS
Augery is preferred terminology....
Be careful, it can be tough to look up Uranus....
I just choked on my toast.
I'll drink to that, toast and all!
Uranus and Octopuss...you can chose deep down or on the beach, like Capt Nemo.
Let it burn
Perfect. 1987 all over again. My 60 year old baby bommer greedy golfing ass tard neighbor will be pissing in his diaper. Get the popcorn and beer !
the 1987 analogy says S&P dips to 970.
Really? Nice. Maybe he will dump in his diaper too as he is telling me he voted for O.
BOHCFMDJA!
dun dun DUUUUUN
and the old school VXO chart from pre 1987 overlapped with the VIX now.
frightening...
I voted against Feinstein. I lost. She won. Turn in your guns.
Hey you could have made a lot of money buying into the bottom in 1987. This time you won't.
Anyone placing bets on the date for the reset?
No, but $SHTF is up sharply.
Karl Rove just lost 6 billion on his failed "American Crossroad' SuperPAC election buy-out.
but still poses as "a political consultant and analyst" on FOX - News (that should explain some to some)
FAUX - News run by Rupert Murdoch, the MSM zionist "Neo-Con", telling the british colonial Empire
(and 50% of all Americans) exactly how, when, where and what to think, by hacking into their twitter accounts.
but where was Dick Cheney in the 2012 elections ?
Shooting Ducks with George Bush and Rupert Murdoch no doubt.
Karl Rove looked like a wounded Duck, crying on FAUX TV -
just when all the zionist Neo-Con Punks where feeling so lucky !
Reality showed up and ruined their day.
LMFAO
wr;)
That is a lame post Die Weiße Rose. Did someone deliver a black rose today or steal the cherry out of your dessert.? You should definitely chase the fucker who stole your grub. alt= go to google.
I tell you what's lame:
the lame Duck "US House of Representatives"
US Republicans are a bunch of lame Duck Turkeys
who have taken congress hostage and fucked up
not only the US economy, but the whole World economy.
And it all started with that super Idiot George W.Bush and his inbred Neo-Con zionist fuckers
who are a total disgrace and painful embarrassment to any civilized human being.
inbred Neo-Con Zionist rightwing fascist that want to fuck up the World.
that's what I think Republicans really are.
Start building some Dams in New Amsterdam,
because the old british empire is sinking fast!
all that is left now is a big red Elephant
and a whole lot of bullshit.
Karl Rove, Dick Cheney, George Bush and all the rest of those right-wing neo-con fascists
these are the criminals that stole your basic human rights -
and you sit there on your China manufactured Apple and blame Obama !
time to wake up you stupid fucks!
wr;)
You missed the message, but others understood.
Way to go, DWR...this is one of the worst attempts I've ever seen at hijacking a thread. Here's your reminder -- the article is about charts and markets and has NOTHING to do with politics.
Pull your head out of the nether regions where you have it planted. Contribute to the thread or GTFO!
FerretBrain
EVERYTHING has to do with Politics
obviously this fact is completely lost on momos like you.
never mind - I have no desire to hijack your mutual admiration circle jerk club.
just read through the thread and pretent it's about charts and markets...
nothing to do with politics, just FerretBrains.
Your forgot False Flag,
Interesting that campaign costs are brought up; since those correctly tallied should contain the Greek bailout and some QE 3 for obvious reasons.
Here, Kitty, Kitty, Kitty. Ding ding ding. Your QE crack to infinity milk bowl happens to be topped off again. Meow!
The world will implode and all that will be left is gold
Considering these charts and Marc Faber saying a 20% decline in the S&P500 is a must, I'm very content to sit short and wait for 1987 :)
Stop playing with curve-fitted analogs. Paul Tudor Jones just turned over in his grave.
Paul is not dead. ???
It's Not Like It Used To Be
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/its-not-like-it...
Nice charts-looking at similar today on the Bloomy. After reading hundreds of "Tyler's" posts, I had an epiphany. I now have a very good idea who (at least in part ) Tyler Durden is. I won't say my guess, but when I construct a mosaic of Tyler and compare to the person I am thinking off, I think I got it right. Either way, keep up the good work "Tyler".
Uh, now for a practical matter...
Sign up on link on right side "Engelhard" and win free 10 ounce bar of silver.
Not a joke
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
kinda OT, but i'm new to a lot of this financial stuff:
why use a 55 week average and not a 52(year)?
Intrigued by the Bonus Chart ... thanks as always Tyler. Maybe finally Gross, Faber, Zulauf. Rogers, etc will be proven correct.
As much as I wonder about NBC & Brian Williams et al, this is too much pain for everyman for them to be shown to be the fools they are (excepting Santelli)
Reaction to the Bonus Chart: "Derivatives killed the sale of bonds" - sing to the tune of "Video Killed the Radio Star"
yes, derivatives, the leveraged way to skin the regulatory cat does distort the direct Bonus Chart 10 yr bond comparison. Wonder what the 'updated' view (derivatives as well) suggests?
Free pussy on the craigslist
http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/col/zip/3396891876.html
Anybody remembers the Whale of JPM?
He owned 70% of that market. Hence there was nobody to sell to...and still there isn't.
Once very soon there will be a meeting. When Hank Paulson revealed to his buddies in a closed door meeting that Lehman would not be saved, it was after a meeting. A decision was made in that meeting.
Very soon there will be a meeting. Remember MFG was NOT saved? It was a primary dealer.
Very soon, very soon. Another meeting where a decision will be made that another primary dealer would not be saved in order to crash the market. Ahhh, it so badly needs a crash.
These 'fractals' rarely ever work. With that said, NDXppl looks like a sell into strength from now on... while the other indices are quite literally on the precipice of joining it.
People, you are looking at this all wrong. It will be lots of fun as we see society dissolve before our very eyes.
The will come a time when the wheat will be separated from the chaff.
All of this would be very concerning and very true but we are living in different times.
The Fed - through one of its bank puppets- will merely go in and buy S&P futures at the end of each day and prop up a stock market that is floating on air.
Its meaningless but then again.......so is everything else these days.
The rules have been rewritten by the 47%'ers.
I've been asking for 2 years when will the day of reckoning come? And it hasn't.
I've been asking when Greece will FINALLY see the light and vote to get out of the Euro - it hasn't.
When will the strings unravel?
By any normal timeframe - it should've been by now.
So the true question is: what's keeping the strings from unraveling? Greece daily goes to protest, they vote in new members to the parliament who promise not to sell out the people yet - something? happens and the vote keeps Greece in the eurozone.
Same with Spain. Where are they now? Trying to keep Catalonia in its grip? Why hasn't C broken away yet? And France - 75% taxes yet those making money are only "thinking" about moving?
Complacent.
We'll take anything they give us and bend over to ask for more.
Gosh - I wish these charts would actually happen. But they won't.
Well now, if you are up early, pondering the market,
considering clicking and entering a number, like say 35.21 and being sent a 10 oz bar of silver. Not a scam, the real deal.
Go to the right side, click on the "Engelhard" and enter the contest. This is for futures spot price on Nov 30. Real deal, enjoy it.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
I think everyone is tired of charts by now, we want candy, give us some candy I like Milk Duds.
Since no-one here has had the decency to say it,
The good old "Thrush" man, (irritating cunt) bernank,
Fuck you, you poisoned little bastard. A veritable shit in a suit. A plague of filthyness on the face of humanity. And a stain of wank on his mothers dress. Its a shame you're mother never swallowed bernank.
Then none of us could have hated you with a fucking vengence.
Wile E. Coyote Crash Update:
SP500 Head & Shoulders formation on daily chart continues.
Weekly chart also shows likely Head & Shoulders.
Look Out Below.
http://trader618.com
http://tinyurl.com/ZH-Forum