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Europe's Scariest Chart Hits Peak Scariness Levels, And Rising

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer in Europe. Perhaps it is the anecdotal evidence we see in the now weekly riot-cams from Spain and Greece but just as we warned over a year ago, the truly scariest chart in Europe remains that of youth unemployment. The correlation (and causation) that runs from extreme levels of youth unemployment to general social unrest and anarchy is stunning throughout time (as we noted here and here). With Greek 'youth' unemployment jumping to a disheartening 58% (for August) - by far its highest ever - and Spain rising inexorably at 54.2%, the under-25 populations in these nations is truly set to burst (with overall unemployment rates of 25.4% and 25.5% respectively). Euro-zone youth unemployment overall has risen to 23.3% and while Greece jumped the most, Italy was close behind with a 1.2ppt rise to 35.1%. We are sure the austerity voted for last night by the politicians will 'help' - someone...

 

 

Data: Bloomberg and Greek Statistics Office

 


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Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Meh. Still could be worsererer.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Cat's gonna die anyhow....no reason to tell him now.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Central planning exposed

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Crap....I knew the death panels were real.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

When are doomer libertarians going to apologize for their shameless fear mongering about Europe and the peripheries? Despite this doomer hypothesizing, the European Union is stronger than ever and nobody cares about apocalyptic end-of-the-world predictions about Greece and Spain anymore. If need be, the European commission can simply issue Eurobonds and the ECB can monetize this debt in order to suppress interest rates and stabilize the union. Respected finance professionals and the media have totally forgotten about Europe, and are focusing on how to profit from the global recovery. Libertarians need to stop fantasizing about the apocalyptic scenarios and rejoin the rest of society.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Don't touch anything....MDB is currently winning.

 

Go baby go.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

"Respected finance professionals and the media have totally forgotten about Europe, and are focusing on how to profit from the global recovery."

MDB is back on his game. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Got Bailout?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

I think the election has reenergized him, he had been in a slump.  

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

I agree totally. Keep giving people free money as this is the best motivator to make them look for work.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

The statistics are not reflecting reality. Most Greek & Spanish girls work as hookers here in Frankfurt!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

If you see my sister would you tell her to call mom?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Sorry she can´t talk right now. A great white bavarian sausage is keeping her from talking.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

More is always better!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Libertarians need to stop fantasizing about the apocalyptic scenarios and rejoin the rest of society.

"The rest of society."   That sums it up.  Sitting around and gaining weight while watching television.  Have a nice rest.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown's picture

Libertarians need to stop fantasizing about the apocalyptic scenarios and rejoin the rest of society

Greek 'libertarians' are following your advice as we speak, rejoining the rest of Greek society in burning down Athens.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment aerojet
aerojet's picture

The ships loaded with small arms and explosives will be offloading their deadly cargoes soon.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

With Greek 'youth' unemployment jumping to a disheartening 58% (for August) - by far its highest ever - and Spain rising inexorably at 54.2%, the under-25 populations in these nations is truly set to burst (with overall unemployment rates of 25.4% and 25.5% respectively).

MDB paints the picture of what the elites intend to do about the PIIGS.

Like here at the FED, the ECB intends to monetize the debts and keep kicking the can.

The amoral  finance professionals and the media deliberately ignore reporting on Europe and are  legitimizing the rape of the planet.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

One of your better posts MDB.  Funny shit!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment ZDRuX
ZDRuX's picture

What the hell does libertanianism have anything to do with this?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Blubaba
Blubaba's picture

Issuing Euro Bonds? Fighting the dept crisis with more dept? Great idea.

Ben Bad Banky...is it you?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I dub MDB the official "Molotov Cocktail" indicator.

A hopium post like this, ignoring +25% unemployment and debt to infinity, is bullish for Molotov Cocktails.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment aerojet
aerojet's picture

Clever troll is clever.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

MillionDollarBonus 
Q. When are doomer libertarians going to apologize for their shameless fear mongering about Europe and the peripheries?

A. When talk of Million Dollar Bonuses is just Folklore.


Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And when they tell the story of our freedom from the trolls it will sound like this: http://youtu.be/YKfwwlEcowk

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment G. Marx
G. Marx's picture

Is that you Barroso?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

Why have I been so stoopid for so long? Yep, Europe is all fixed. Long baby long, leverage and buy buy buy. Thank you MDB. I think I'll name my next child after you.

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

So, what you're saying is that this time is different?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

10/10

Grand slam!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment twh99
twh99's picture

Except that Germany, Austria, Denmark, etc. will not go along with monetizing the debt.

At this point it might be better for the northern Europeans to go it alone with their own currency.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

"Respected finance professionals and the media.."

LOL. There are none of the former, and the latter wouldn't understand what the ECB was doing if you put it on fucking flashcards.

You realize that this has been tried before, right? In Zimbabwe? And did you hear how well it went?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

MDB you are in great shape today.

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Witnessing this destruction in the society for the purpose of centralizing planning and control is everyday becoming so obvious: it just doesn't make sense. When will the people wake up and realize that which they rely upon couldn't care less about them and that their only salvation is to decentralize and take care of themselves, even if it means at a lower standard of living, such as in Greece.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Sounds like a higher standard of living to me.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Yep, and imagine if life were not based on paying off interest on fractional reserve debt money?

Like filling up a bucket when they keep punching more and more holes in the bottom.  

Reminds me of the parable of the mexican fisherman and the investment banker:

http://financialmentor.com/true-wealth/the-parable-of-the-mexican-fisherman-and-investment-banker/2422

pods

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

You and GF make a good point: if the people cast off the parasite that is the fractional reserve system, they very well may end up with a BETTER standard of living.

One thing is sure: they would be moving forward and feeling the sense of progress as opposed to having a helpless feeling of being stuck in the mud. And nothing feeds the soul and revitalizes communities more than a sense of making progress.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

tyler, I think your gonna need a bigger chart ...

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

I thought GetZee went to hide. Everyone ready to bug? 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

What....and miss all this fun?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

More contestants for the riot cam games! They need to start their own version of the Hunger Games!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Go long RST

Looks like a lot of EU kids need to learn German!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Hey but Spain sold a bunch of bonds...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah.....to themselves....show me anyone else crazy enough to buy them.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If you want to make a bank bonus omelet you have to break some eggs.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Parabolic is the new flat.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Yes, but I would take flat real returns over parabolic nominal returns from monetization any day.

“We’re not going to monetize the debt,” Mr. Bernanke declared flatly..."
...these tits stock market returns are real!"

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Your face is kind of scratchy Mrs. Draghi (?)."

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment zerozam
zerozam's picture

Are those real?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Great stuff

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

10.17 The Greek unemployment rate hit another high of 25.4pc in August, official figures show.

This means that there are now almost 1.3 million Greeks out of work, according to El.Stat. The August rate compares with 18.4pc a year ago and 24.8pc in July 2012.

There were also 3.37 million Greeks classed as "economically inactive" in August. This means that they were not working or looking for a job.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9662732/Debt-crisis-live.html

So, if 1.3 million are unemployed (equalling 25.4%) AND  3.37 million are "economically inactive" does that mean that only about 10% of Greeks are working ?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

Yes and they are out for lunch.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment gojam
gojam's picture

Just to correct, if the figures above are accurate then only between 7 and 8% of Greeks are working

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment tonyw
tonyw's picture

Most of them are just pretending to work.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

All of them for the Government.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Nope, but I'm sure you can find some estimates following these links.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Salt
Salt's picture

Greece and Spain can solve that easily. Get them back in university. Train them for those high paying jobs which are on their way any day now.

/s

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

+10 Astute read on the scam perpetrated on America.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

And the loans required to do so will almost pay off themselves with your new earning power!

pods

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

what does reality and real people's situation have anything to do with banks maintaining their bonus pools?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's all good, Germany is holding up well.....I wonder just what might be different between Germany and Spain.......What big Spanish companies can I think of?,,.....none...Now how about Germany? BMW, Volkswagon,Audi, Siemens, Mercedes...to many to list. I wonder why that is.?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Perhaps because Spain is very focused on Latin America (where they are the second biggest foreign investor), on Europe and Asia

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Good luck with that. I don't think they're gonna get a dime from Latin America

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

It is funny but Colombia just had a big meeting with Spanish companies and embassy officals  and were trying to get them to invest down here...lol....In the meantime they are dying at home.....

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment aerojet
aerojet's picture

Right, because Colombia is such a bastion of peace and stability and thus a great place to invest billions of Euros.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

Just ask Repsol about their engagement in Argentina.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And we see where that is getting them. I wonder how many more of their companies will get nationalized. Here is a thought..how about creating an environment friendly to investment and innovation in their own country. Similar to what we used to have.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Because Germans are just mean and haters! They are working hard just to make the rest of Europe look bad. Everyone knows in our new progressive world that the truly good, nice and smart people don't really work. It interferes with their creative thinking time. Unemployment leads to creativity and technical as well as social advancement. All these working people are stagnating the world.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The big Spanish firms I've worked with include OHL, Ferrovial, Repsol & CASA, so they do exist, but not to same the degree as in Germany.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

Riots accomplish nothing - storm the palace and get the job done.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

No, storm the banks.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

I think the strategy is storm the palace first, ie, cut off the head of the monster.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

the under twenty five are ALL employed in Europe, they get minimum wages for being unemployed which are 20-50 times a Foxconn worker in China.  Thats globalisation pay scale for you today.

What Euroezone cannot do is pay its youth at Chinese levels, in or out of work. That would mean revolution. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

I didn't realize Obama was president of Europe also

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

One of the causes of high youth unemployment is high minimum youth wages. That prevents companies from hiring young people. And older workers don't leave the workforce so that there in no movement in the labormarket.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Unrestricted child labor and debtors' prisons: great old ideas whose time has come again!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

Yes because young working people in Europe and the US are really poor. But at least they show solidarity with their Chinese counterparts by buying the latest phones, buy Hilfiger cloths, the latest sneakers, etc. All made in China!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I get the sarcasm. Well played.

The whole idea that the peasantry in the US and Europe (and NZ and OZ, and Canada, etc.) is at all "poor" is bullshit. Until the peasants in the West learn their place and get back to work competing with the Chinese (et al), the Lords will simply keep their castles in the East.

The rabble has had it good for a long time, a new day is dawning and they better get used to it. The Lords are sick of this shit.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

I arrowed you up for getting the sarcasm.

Through globalisation, the local elites around the world (whether capitalist/fascist or socialist/communist) found out they have a lot in common with eachother so they joined forces to keep the rabble at bay. The way to do this is to wipe out the middle class. That happens in the US, it happens in Europe. China does not have a sufficient middle class to begin with. If the sheeple wake up, just create some war or conflict. The times they are a changing alright.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Chinese labor is out competing the rest of the world. If American labor was more competitive (easily achieved through improved education), they would be happy to pay the producers to work. They could put it on their credit cards.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

If American regulations & taxes were more competitive (ideally zero) then business would relocate here in droves and the rest of the world's labor force would be fucked, especially the Chi-commies.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Exactly.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Rivers on fire.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

Have you ever ran a company in Europe? Minimum wage in Belgium is 20k a year. for that money, 11k goes right to the government. Plus, on everything you buy, there is a 21% value added tax (soon to go up to 25% if the socialist piece of shit president of Belgium has his way).

Now, I know China ain't great, but c'mon, there has to be a middle ground between the insane labour costs of Europe and organized slavery? Can't you at least admit that the costs of labour in Europe are a problem?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Middle ground is for pussies, and really - who's to say what it is?

The Enlightenment was nice while it lasted - kudos, world, for the experiment. Now it's time for the peasantry to get the fuck back to work.

edit: and sorry - no; I've never run a European company.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

Please qualify "out competing". I've been to China over a dozen times and so I have some insight on the subject.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

They compete by offering their labor at lower cost.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Maybe one of the reasons why the US govmint is so willing to issue mountains of student loans is simply to keep the kids off the streets.  I wonder if similar demonstrations would happen here if student loans were suddenly non-existent?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Duh... That's also why we have unlimited warfare. The young ones have to be given something to do so they don't attack the power structure. Of course it only works until the USD loses all value.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Good question. Awful quiet around here all of a sudden. I say "calm before the storm" as well. Clearly this site should cheer more than most as it was the banks that lost big in this election...and yet no one wants to break out the confetti. Hmmmm. "Government Blues" here we come...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

"Futures signal higher open......."

 

What a disconnect.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must. Pump. Futures.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Is is me, or has this turd we call the world economy passed the event horizon and is now accelerating towards the now black hole sized fan we call society?

The only thing to fear is fear itself, right?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

The indicator for that event will be very clear - hyperinflation begins and causes shortages of everything

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think in Rome, they couldn't pay the mercenaries.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

The rest to follow ...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Greek Brid pop-ups, I'm still waiting to see Greek Bride ads on my screen.

Where are they?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

so 30 seconds ago

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

Try looking here http://alpha-dog-food.com

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Nothing like a big ass world war to reduce the excess inventory of disaffected young people.

Cue false flag attack in 3 2 1.....

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

Can we please start with a real attack on the Fed Reserve and UN ?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They just bought up the gun treaty again.....thanks Bam Bam....if they're gonna attack us I'd say we should attack back.

 

Hell it's just in the Consitution....but that's been ripped to shreds.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Jumped right on that problem right quick didn't he? Almost laser focused you might say.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Remind me again...how did WWI and II start?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

Er, politicians getting really scared about what a bunch of young men might get up to with nothing to do all day  other than look for the right people to blame (so therefore need 'distracting' in case they tried to take power and/or wealth away from those who were holding it)?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The Greek bankster omelet with feta cheese, coming up.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why in the fk are we torturing Greece like this?  What is the real purpose here?  Is it just to get their gold?  They don't have that much debt and they aren't doing anything the rest of Europe is not also doing.  This is just getting stupid.  There has to be something else going on.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Quinvarious, why do you pose the question this way?

Greece - it's elected parliament for which we followed here in ZH the elections - wants to stay in the eurozone. Some 60% to 70% of the Greeks want to keep the EUR. and this means abiding to the rules of this club.

may I remember you that the Greek gov originally cheated on their numbers - thanks to the Squid - and was happily spending like a drunken sailor on what amounts to a credit card for which the others were half-liable.

the eurozone countries are - intelligently or stupidly as commenters go - on the way of balanced budgets. As an answer to the crisis, etc. See the European Fiscal Compact http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Fiscal_Compact.

Greece tells it's peers: pls, we want to stay in the club, we just have this or that to pay and we'll catch up.

meanwhile as long as those damn CDSs are still legal nobody knows how many banks go bankrupt again if Greece defaults

so the others (not only Germany) are helping. and the Greek gov has to find a way to balance the bloody budget

yes, it's painful, but it's fundamentally a Greek sovereign decision

but of course near all Keynesianists of this world want to picture this as a torture

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

OK, so why is Europe so keen to have them stay? Seems like a bad deal. Seems really stupid.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

on a practical side there is this problem with the CDSs and a possible PR fallout

on a strategic side there is this thing between the UK and Russia about Greece going on since the times of Lord Byron and the Greek Independence from the Ottoman Empire. and the interest in Greece as a NATO partner

side remark: on a constitutional/legal side the eurozone and the EU are both clubs where any sovereign member can leave whenever it wants, or join if it conforms the parameters - as several countries are still preparing to

but the main thing is: Greece is important for europeans, on a very sentimental side. It's something like the cultural grandmother, or the crazy old aunt that nevertheless teached you how to read and write

when you set up a new confederative setup for several countries you have to allow for "the special case". hence patience with the other crazy aunt, the UK (which is still undecided and more of a drag than anything else) or for other sensibilities, including the "Greatness of France". and patience for the special needs of several others, including those who just emerged back from behind the Iron Courtain

but keen to have them stay? no. this is pure propaganda from several sources, including Rupert Murdoch's goons, the UK conservatives and libertarians, people who are looking for the next crash as a possibility to profit including several banks, lots of people who hate all things euro, etc. etc.

The Greek majority in their Parliament is keen to stay, they just showed it again with the last vote. And as long they are keen to stay it would be shameful not to help them

of course on the side there is a lot of corrupted deals and other garbage, but this is the answer about why - on the political will side

we might call it stupid and a bad deal, but it's based on a sentiment similar to family, which also leads to many economically "stupid" moves, including feeding ungrateful brats and crazy aged aunts

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thanks.

Very interesting.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

Agree 100% with this. The problem is they can't afford it long term. There is no good reason for them to be tied to the same currency as Germany. It makes no economic sense for them at all, aside from a point of pure hubris.

While they are trying to be part of the big EU experiment, people are literally starving on the street while they need to devalue their economy via wage and asset deflation, and productivity increases (like we'll ever see the latter).

I understand the solidarity argument, but really, it is literally destroying the fabric of Greece.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this is the same argument against gold. the basic question is: balanced budget? Yes or No?

a lot has been written on "the big EU experiment", but funnily the eurozone is a separate club. they could leave the EUR and/or default (and still use the EUR, informally, as several small countries in europe do) and still be part of the EU

and there is the not-so-small-thing about Greek Pride (sounds nicer than hubris)

and a lot is being reported on "people literally starving on the street" but note that the Greek Parliament just voted 168 (of 300) for austerity.

propaganda about starvation or "do the elected representatives know better"?

remember that "the fabric of Greece" is a different matter from the society you encounter in any AngloSphere country, be it the US or any Commonwealth country.

Greece is a nation indipendently from the current status of their society, due to the unique culture, language and history. their common ties are different

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

put it in a different way: Greece suffers from deflation. some pundits say 30%. now if they had the Drachma, they could inflate it by 30%.

or they could have their labour market adjust. This means all paychecks (and social security checks) would have to go down by 30%.

All in all Greeks are behaving as all the other continental europeans would do: they are more scared of inflation than deflation and are quite confident that eventually the EUR will inflate anyway

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

But the problem of having a currency that is not fundamentally aligned to your economy will NEVER go away for Greece. Sure, they can deflate, but eventually there will come a time when the productivity will need to align with Germany in order for the interest rates to make economic sense for the Greek economy.

You and I may disagree, but I do not ever see that day occurring, regardless of how much they deflate, as I never see the Greeks competing head-on with Germany long term. There will always be an economic disequilibrium between Germany and Greece that will require a divergent monetary policy.

Greece is only the most obvious example, but Italy, Spain, and Portugal are in the same situation.

The US manages this situation by having a transfer union. For the last 50 years, California was subsidizing a lot of other US economic activity. I just don't see the Germans standing up for this.

As for Greek politicians, I may be cynical, but I see them as pigs at the trough, sucking up Germany's billions.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

On the most basic level, we have paper money instead of gold so we can print our way out of these problems.  That is the system of rules we have chosen.  The human suffering being imposed here is largely sadism.  This is a small problem, easily solved by printing as the system was designed to solve these problems, being enflamed to unnatural size.

It is not that I am a Keynesian.  I just recognize we use monopoly money and not gold.  There is no point to pretending the Euro or the USD have real value.  The game has rules.

I am not sure who is more disgusting.  The Greek government for not defaulting or the global banking system for not just forgiving the debt.  The debt is never going to get paid.  So lets end this and let Greece start over from zero.

Greece can make a bunch of promises about budget reform again, just like all the other broke dick nations on the planet.  Then in 20 years they can default again.  That is just the way it works when you use vapor money. 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I'm not pretending that the EUR is something else than a fiat currency

but the "laws of economics", or, better, of markets make any gold backed currency a losing proposition as long as there is a fiat global reserve currency - bad money drives good money away

please remember that all USD outside America were covered by gold until 1968, one to one, one million bucks = one ton of gold

after August 1971 we all knew where this would lead - and that it would take at least twenty years to go there, particularly after the other trick with gold from 1974 (US legalization) to 1980 (spike and crash)

the primary point of the EU was and is still to prepare for a possible trade war, the secondary to provide "continental size" solutions

the primary point of the eurozone is to prepare for a possible currency war or the return of gold

and you can't have gold without balanced budgets - hence the Fiscal Compact

all defensive moves, like prepping on continental size

the Greek debt is not the issue. it's the habit of balancing the budget that is the issue. and the Greeks know this

------------

btw CHS was mentioning 14% of Greek tax revenues for debt service. the high water mark is 20%, no country was ever expected to pay more since very, very long

I agree that it's a disgusting situation on several sides, but don't forget that sovereigns are supposed to be the "ultimate grown-ups", and Greece does not want to default and does not want to leave the EUR Club

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

the banks want the gold.

which the firms short, but the bank managers go long.

then they let it all crash....who then makes the rules (if they don't already)?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Actually, that is pretty much what I think is going on too.  The easy cure for the entire global mess is to push gold up well over 10k an ounce, where it actually belongs, so everyone has an asset to back their crap debt.  But naturally, the bankers need their gold back first, and then some.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

backing the USD with gold - independently from the price - would mean losing the so-called Exorbitant Privilege

it would lead to either sovereing bankrupcies or balanced budgets and fiscal conservativism - something not everybody is keen to achieve

finger pointing to several parties including the MegaBanks of this world

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

we are torturing the greeks so that the bond and shareholders of banks don't take a loss on their investments.  simple as that

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

And watch that orange French line go on up too. At least it won't have to change direction.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

2016 Olympics in RIO will be great fun as Team Rioting and Individual Rioting events are added and will be held in the city's slums.

Early betting has Greece winning the gold, London rioters taking silver, and Egypt's Team Arab Spring getting the bronze.  Occupy Wall Street was DQd as they all moved to Colorado to smoke weed and didn't pass the drug tests.  

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

We will all be out of a job soon.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

No problem. We got big daddy Barak to take care of us.  Get yo EBT, O-care, O-phone, O-disability check, 16 oz mt dew - all good.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Root hog or die...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

And Cue the Fascists leader who will emerge to scapegoat the elderly and older people in general in three two one.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Wait a minute.  Demographic scare mongers tell us that the youth are needed to work double hard to care for the elderly.  And if that isn't true can't the EU drum up a war with someone and send them all off to be slaughtered?

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Funny thing is....the People actually do have the power, but are scared to use it-

Its like being robbed by a thief in your house while you're holding a gun, but too scared to fire...

AMAZING

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's not just fear stopping Americans, it's also greed.

FEAR and DESIRE

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Chingadera
Chingadera's picture

The good news is that the chocolate ration has been increased from 4 ounces to 2 ounces per week. 

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

The chart needs more shades of blue to make it even harder to read.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yep, greens and reds too, pretty darn near impossible to allocate the colours to the countries and then find/differentiate them on the chart!

the one take-away from the chartology however is the more educated (cough) the students the less likely they are to find jobs

another State turkey factory malinvesting, mis-allocating resources and no ability to match supply with demand (same as it ever was)

"Don't stop the production line, we've got no demand for the end-product but we're just going to churn them out anyway ...channel stuffing students, it's a twist on the all-the-rage new concept at General Motors!!"

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

 

See the chart in super large version:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11/20121108_EUunemp.png

If U click on Tyler's charts, they usually open separately.

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

The causes of all this unemployment in the 'developed world' are quite simple: Technology and relatively cheap oil and outsoucing to the developing countries. Remedies are simple enough, but are politically difficult to implement, because the gravy train for the '1%' is just too sweet to abandon.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

This is why the whole FORWARD meme never resonated with me.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

its "FOWARD"

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Actually it's Vorwarts.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6Ryt0JbDa0

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

We need some Obama Youth.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Well done.

"Vorwarts" indeed.

Wrapped in the stars and stripes no doubt.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

It is becoming increasingly clear that just like the book/movie Fightclub, the banks and credit institutions all need to be brought to the ground and turned to dust. All debt needs to be wiped away and those responsible for this mess need to be hung and their property confiscated. Dismantle their empires.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment covert
covert's picture

communism is very popular in europe carl marx would love it.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Marx is 'winning' at the moment in Europe, America and Japan ..the ignorant theories that State can run anything either 'fairly' or for societies good health

stealing (taxing) productive people to prop up lazy, corrupt, ignorant toerags in Govt is just theft dressed up as socio-economic claptrap

expecting the parasitical turkeys of Govt to vote for Christmas isn't even worth hoping for

Crash & Burn, that'll teach 'em coz no fucker else stands a chance

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Sans-culottes
Sans-culottes's picture

The Greek and Spanish youth are all employed..."the unemployed" became rioters. There labor statistic fudgepacking with lots of BS and PhDs

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

maybe people are realizing that older employees are more productive and hold the knowledge in a company :)

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

no chance you're over 45 and skewed the survey results???

;)

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer.."

Go Long 'er' ...there's going to be massive demand for those 2 letters.. you'll be raking it in over the next few years

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Crabshacker
Crabshacker's picture

Shouldn't we be at worsererererererererer..er

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 02:17 | Link to Comment Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Since symbols preceed realities, we are looking at the mass unemployment preceeding the mass murders.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

This situation has occured multiple times in past. Check global employment pre-1944, also in between continental wars in europe. A vast number of untrained young men. Enter the "new" crusades, and off they go to die for God and country.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment dickizinya
dickizinya's picture

They'll never get jobs wearing those cheezy euro warm up suits.

 

jumpstyle!

 

 

 

 

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