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Initial Claims Lower Than Expected Due To Hurricane Sandy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's initial claims number, as well as that for the next several weeks, will be nothing but noise due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy. This is how UBS' Maury Harris explained the Sandy impact last night: "Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly cause increased jobless claims. However, as after other hurricanes, there will probably be some lag with many potential claimants either unable to reach the Labor Department or otherwise pre-occupied. Indeed, we expect the hurricane artificially held down claims in the coming report (UBSe 340k, cons 365k after 363k)." Sure enough, today's Claims number came at 355K, below consensus expectations of 365K, and below last week's 353K, driven by the Sandy front-loading distortion as well as Seasonal Adjustments: the NSA claims number rose by 15.5K. No surprise. What is more peculiar is that after over a year of steady declines, those collecting extended benefits continued to rise, increasing by 20K in the past week, which is odd considering these programs have now been largely phased out for new entrants.

 

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Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:43 | 2960029 LawsofPhysics
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I will keep saying it so long as it is true; "Beating expectations", all.. the... way... down...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:45 | 2960033 CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/staten_island/it_bad_sign_for_staten_...

 

NYC is on it's own today while the FEMA office is closed due to weather.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:46 | 2960041 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Went to file unemployment at the office.....but it's no longer there.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:13 | 2960149 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

dead men file no claims

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:47 | 2960521 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

there were no claims resulting from hurricane pam

simulation The three movies show Pam as it approaches and passes New Orleans, at different zoom levels. Right-click on the image and select play to view the clip.

summary on wpedia

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:49 | 2960049 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I am sure the .gov will be "shocked" to learn that they do just fine.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:51 | 2960061 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

We got buried with snow out here. Trees down everywhere. People are losing their mind. At least I don't own apple.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:54 | 2960070 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Wow....that was close.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:07 | 2960370 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

7 inches or so up here in Westchester...

Would have been much much worse if the trees had not been bared by Sandy...

Last years Halloween storm was a killing storm, ~14" of snow on trees with most if not all their leaves...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:51 | 2960062 HD
HD's picture

+1

That is the funniest thing I've read today.

FEMA - We are here to help. You know, if the weather is nice and we have a few minutes

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:35 | 2960489 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Maybe they need to rename it FEEBLE: Federal Emergency Eggheads Barely Lending assistancE...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:02 | 2960104 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

FEMA head was fired...by cuomo. He had crew remove tree or trees from his driveway instead of the ones that needed it.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:35 | 2960503 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Slight correction; it was his Dept. of Emergency Services head. But is that a job saved or lost?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:07 | 2960371 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Seven years after Katrina and still no improvement in FEMA services. (tsk, tsk, tsk)

(picture Obama pointing to the masses like Uncle Sam)  "Your Government Working for You!!!!"

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:47 | 2960039 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This is starting to feel like the Vietnam death totals.  Eventually the number was so skewed it said we wiped out the entire North Vietnamese people.

And so numbers will eventually reach zero I suppose.

By then no one will have a job but zero is possible.  Fox will cover the headline for us.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:44 | 2960031 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

What, nothing about last weeks upward revision...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:46 | 2960034 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Well, the election is over, no need to manipulate the data anymore...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:55 | 2960073 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I don't think I like the sound of that.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:48 | 2960046 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

there will probably be some lag with many potential claimants either unable to reach the Labor Department or otherwise pre-occupied.

 

In NJ, you can file over the phone. In fact, IIRC, that's the only way to file. Takes 5 minutes.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:58 | 2960081 CPL
CPL's picture

You are assuming the servers are up to recieve any claims.

You are assuming there is diesel in the back up generators in all 400 data centers after last week.

You are assuming that the staff at those data centers haven't quit to take care of their families.

 

They are electronic ghost towns of a trillion dollars of information and equipment doing nothing.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:34 | 2960246 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

It used to be located in Trenton, but after checking, I see that there are three, depending on where you live. N. Jersey  UI call center is located in Union City. So, you may be right.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 09:55 | 2960076 youngman
youngman's picture

What will happen when all those election workers file....????

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:09 | 2960135 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH right, these numbers are just 'noise' due to a storm, in a couple weeks we'll get back to the 'real' data. Yea right.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:11 | 2960141 larz
larz's picture

Wow Obama works fast - so glad he has four more years yay

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:24 | 2960191 fuu
fuu's picture

A few campaign workers are going to show up next week.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:24 | 2960193 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Yay, another Krugman style "beat".

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 10:49 | 2960307 covert
covert's picture

sheeple cry so much over just a little wind.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 11:48 | 2960571 graneros
graneros's picture

Come on folks really, does anyone with half a functioning brain left believe ANY numbers generated by the govt?  How many of you are unemployed and have been for a long while?  How many of your friends? Neighbors? Relatives?  The city I use for services which is 40 miles away down on the plains has a population of 105,000.  The Sunday paper job listings last week had very few job openings listed.  About a quarter page.  All of them but 2 were in the medical field.  The other 2 were for CDL holders, long haul trucking. Ten years ago there would have been a couple of pages of listings.  Buckle up and hold on cause 2013 is gonna make 2012 look like we were all living in the lap of luxury.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 15:38 | 2961633 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Down 45K YOY (not seasonally adjusted).  Employment situation isn't good, but the next unemployment crisis isn't here yet.  When it comes, oh boy.

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