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Spot The Odd Market Out Since The Election

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Market watchers are stunned, stunned we tell you, that we didn't bounce today after yesterday's 1-year record plunge in stocks. Whether AAPL led the market or the market led AAPL is irrelevant, there is one clear fact, everyone and their pet rabbit Clive is looking to reduce exposure to that anchor-like alpha-destroyer. Gold once again outperformed every other asset class today as it has seemingly reaffirmed since the election that "buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle." S&P 500 futures plunged into the close to end on their lows (-60 points from yesterday's highs); AAPL closed at its lows (-3.7% on the day - through its 55-week average); financials dropped further; Treasury yields plunged (30Y -16bps on the week); while the USD generally tracked sideways to higher; high-yield credit closed at its lowest price in over two months (don't tell Tom Lee). VIX compressed modestly (and steepened) as we suspect election hedges are lifted (and also AAPL overlays discarded).

Gold is soaring as Treasury yields, Oil, and Stocks plunge...(and the USD treads water limping higher)

 

with AAPL down

 

and where does the S&P 500 stand...

 

Where to from here? S&P still ~90 points rich to Bonds...

120 points rich to Goldman's year-end target...

and 200 points rich to a much broader basket of risk-assets calibrated earlier in the year...

 

Meanwhile, European stocks are now outperforming US stocks...

 

as a reminder - P/E valuation changes during QE2 and LTRO/Twist compared to the current move are almost perfect mirrors... will we follow 2011? or 2012?

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: GRPN Group-Off! -12% after-hours on sales-staff cuts and reduced outlook...oops...

 

amd here's NFLX - trading between $76 and $80 since Icahn's move... we suspect more than a few lined up under that...


 


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Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Yikes
Yikes's picture

After hours.

Groupon?  Nope.  Groupoff.  Like 13% off

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

The good olde bond and gold barbell works like a charm, again.

Hey, ah, Meredith, about them municipal bankruptcies... seems Obey and Benji gonna fund that stuff.....

LOL

Whata fucking mess

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

"Once again Gold outperformed every other asset class today"

 

I think that Silver might have something to say about that bitchez!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Only if it were, in fact, a different asset class.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Capitalist10
Capitalist10's picture

Tyler,

 

You left out bellwethers Smith and Wesson (SWHC) and Sturm Ruger (RGR), both up sharply since the election.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Yeah, they're doing unbelievable. Gun makers adding on 4% gains day over day with already high yearly gains.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

AAPL still overvalued by 800%, that is if you only count the shares that are not counterfeited...

(nowdays all you have to do is add a zero or two to your account with a keyboard)

Anyone that buys AAPL will be caught holding a bag of old needles and razorblades

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Oh my aching ipad....I'll bet there's more than one hedge fund manager stressed out right now yelling at some poor subordinate. Apple down another 20. How many ways can you spell "margin call"???

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

fuu - your  ill Mac rang

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

cram all gin!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Another day or two of this and the rats will be slamming ZH for advice.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

People like me.  All I know is where the gun shop is and where the gold shop is.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Just keep buying PM's and everything will be fine.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Well good luck with your dollar longs I would agree with that. But don't forget...we had far more socialism in 1940....and FDR set the price of gold every morning when he woke up (36 bucks give or take a dime...an OUNCE.) So far the comparisons to that guy with say....the last 10 Presidents....has been pretty sorry.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment sgorem
sgorem's picture

the president, nor the us government can set the price of gold in todays world. how sweet is that!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Most the guys I know in the biz already religiously read ZH... just that the normalcy bias amongst the head honchos at the money managers and their clients absolutely prohibits implementing such nonsense as found on these here pages.

Fuck ya', guys.

How them redemptions and account/client losses going for ya these days?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Zero Hedge Fund?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Server overload suggests that people consult it more often during corrections. Foolish sheep. Much as I love ZH calling bottoms is not the site's biggest strength. They should be checking it out when things seem rosy (but aren't)

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Five painless ways to prepare for disasters and emergencies

http://apartmentprepper.com/?p=7806

Why are we bailing out the banks? – Part Four – What happens now?

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/11/why-are-we-bailing-out-the-banks-part-four-what-happens-now/

Jim Rogers: Money Printing Will Run Amok

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/11/08/jim-rogers-money-printing-will-run-amok/

The DOW Could Potentially Hit 4,000! Investors Should Be Shorting The Market And Buying Metals And Hold For The Long Term
http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-dow-could-potentially-hit-4000-the-stage-has-been-set-for-another-credit-crisis-while-europe-is-heading-for-depression-investors-should-be-shorting-the-market-and-buying-metals-and-hold-for-the/

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

$530 is a lock tomorrow.   Last chance support before everybody and their grandmother bail.  

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

This is accelerating big time. Might as well ride the wave down, but stay nimble.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I smell 480-90ish myself.  If that longer term rising trend line fails down there then it's pure panic time.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

480-490 would be possible next week, if 530 breaks tomorrow.  

Have a divi coming in next week.

Wonder if AAPL will finally step in to defend.

This pummeling has to have a few HFs calling them up.  

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

I dunno, I'm not a fanboi but $480 would be something like 5X earnings on a company that earns $130 million per day. It's the perfect model for the company of the future, 42 high-wage jobs in the US doing design & marketing, tens of millions of little Chinese fingers assembling the hateful little things, profits offshored via tax shenanigans, and muppet/sheeple worship of the brand/coolness/Snooki.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 00:15 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

I wish I could upvote your comment 100 times. Pure. Gold.

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Man, agree, this is ugly. I am so glad I do not own stocks, except for quality miners. My physical is warm and safe IN the safe. I missed most of the ramp up in stocks. Just could not go there knowing what I knew. But, now, I am also missing the entire leg down, so far. Santelli was great, "Maria, the stock market is telling you they elected the wrong guy". Love that man.

Truth and reality, finally. But, still have zero shorts. Do not trust the head inmate. Once he starts dribling on his beard, anything can happen.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Didn't you see how the market turned around today when the new QE rumors came out? Oh yeah they can't do that anymore. The Bernanke put is dead in the other inmates are just waking up to the fact. The chances for an algo driven flash crash in the next week are substantial. Multiyear trend support has been broken for all the majors and all are below their 200s. This happened before on May 6 2010 and early August 2011. The squid sees all those AAPL stops and smells money.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Dive in dude!

 

SDS, DXD, TWM, MZZ...all good shorts. Ripe for the plucking.

 

DIRT is smarter than a typical Obamavik "voter". I have talked to several of these douchebags, post-election. Howard Stern has nothing on me. ALL of them are dumber than a bag of hammers.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

That final few minutes of trading today smelled like liquidity crunch spirit. Either that or someone was front running a specific geo-political risk event.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Did you say GEO-POLITICAL....

 

Time to carpet bomb Iran with kenetic bombs of peace.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The S&P went below it's 200 dma and a lot of stops were triggered.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment e-man
e-man's picture

I seem to recall a kinder gentler time when this racket, er -- market would only go up.  It all seems so long ago now...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

At some point we gotta bounce. Cannot remember it being this easy for shorts since 2008-09. Hmmmm. Maybe I just hit on something.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Today's close was just below 200dma.  So we'll see if there's any bounce.  If there is, I think those that want out will use that as their opportunity before the exits get crowded.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Wait, let's check.  Oh yeah, the VIX is at 18.5.  Yeah, totally over-sold.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

January 2013 might be the first time you walk in a store and see nothing but Christmas merchandise with 75% off tags.

In 15 years of selling to retail, I have never been at this point in the year without spring orders. All of my reps that also sell other lines are saying the same thing about every other company the represent. Retailers aren't buying anything.

Everyone was claiming the buyers were waiting until the election was over. It's over and they won't even pick up the phone. 12% EPS growth? Ha, we'll be lucky if we're only down 12%. You can't sell what wasn't bought. Even Wall Street can't BS through that.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Very sad adr. Am very sorry for you and your staff.

Amazing what a few corrupt useless politicians and worthless greedy bankers can do to an entire economy and country.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Broccoli
Broccoli's picture

I find it more likely retail sales will be flat the next few quarters, margins will be zero or negative.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Make it up in volume?   Probably not.  More likely volumes MUCH lower with as much margin as they can safely capture.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"Even Wall Street can't BS through that."

Yes they can

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Yes we can was last elections...fail., just sayn..

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment rqb1
rqb1's picture

and Bob the Builder

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I saw this eaelier..It's inetersting how aggressively CNN is pushing the war meme.

 

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/first-on-cnn-iranian-jets-fire-...

 

 

 

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

First new moon after the election is Monday. For most this is a totally random fact.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Maybe Ozero will come out and call a bottom

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

 

Dexia is starting to look like that canary in the coal mine indicator of increased volatility...third time it has had to be rescued...seeing a pattern coming to a Spanish and Italian bank near you

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9665484/Dexia-rescued-for-the-third-time-in-four-years.html

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

when one mentions Dexia, ponder some European bank-run history which many Americans are not taught ..... even in our leading business schools or economic graduate schools >>>> it can't happen anymore ..... not as exactly as played out back then .... but alot differently now when many keep their savings in uninsured money market funds and any smart banker worth his/her salary/bonus knows how to "skin the cat":   It has been said that this event resulted in a global financial crisis and ultimately the bank failures of the Great Depression.[2]:2–3 [3] [4]

Creditanstalt From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search Creditanstalt AG Type Subsidiary of Unicredit Industry Finance and Insurance Founded 1855 Headquarters Vienna, Austria Key people Baron Rothschild, founder Products Commercial banking, Investment banking, Private banking, Asset management Revenue bn (as of 2004) Website www.bankaustria.at/

The Creditanstalt (sometimes Credit-Anstalt[1] or CA) was an Austrian bank. The Creditanstalt was based in Vienna, founded in 1855 as K. k. priv. Österreichische Credit-Anstalt für Handel und Gewerbe (approximately translated as: Imperial royal privileged Austrian Credit-Institute for Commerce and Industry) by the Rothschild family. Being very successful, it became the largest bank of Austria-Hungary. It declared bankruptcy on May 11, 1931. It has been said that this event resulted in a global financial crisis and ultimately the bank failures of the Great Depression.[2]:2–3 [3] [4] The bank was ultimately rescued by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Rothschilds and merged with the Wiener Bankverein, thus changing its name to Creditanstalt-Bankverein.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Ozero. LOLOLOL!!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Still like Wisconsin Energy. And unlike First Solar which was up today "it didn't get there due to high tariffs from Uncle Salami." Not that the State of Wisconsin...or the growth of the economy...doesn't matter. Indeed...right now the latter probably matters more now than ever...

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Tom Lee's a liitle sell side prick.

 

Fuck you JP Morgan!

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The bankers didnt get Romney.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

Welcome to the Hotel Applefornia....

So when's Ben gonna start monetizing Apple shares?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 may slow down and then again it may not.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-week-week-lot-worse/

 

Down markets tend to move a lot faster than up markets.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

No Clive; Hymee

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

No, Harvey.  And he is more of a pooka.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Maybe the banksters are thinking of getting on the gold bandwagon and revalue. As unlikely as that seems they could easily start taking some of those 1's and 0' going into other 'sterilized purchases' and get Timmy and Ben to announce they want to make gold a bigger part of their reserves and strengthen the reserve currency of the world. Can you imagine what would happen?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment edifice
edifice's picture

Gold, bitchez?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

At the end of the month, it might be a good idea to overlay treasuries, stocks, oil, gold, and gun sales.  I think gold might even look weak compared to that last one.  Just a hunch.

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Can anyone explain how the market drops 50 points on the S&P with no volatility?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Pure, unadulterated manipulation?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

cause no one is buying puts?

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

According to MSM the sell off has nothing to do with Obama and the idiotic political cycle but worries about Greece and other offshore crap .. oh and Sandy yay Michelle yay Obama four more years of arrogant foolishness

Thu, 11/08/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

It's about time this over-stuffed market crunched lower.  Remember bulls, AAPL, the god of all according to CNBC, can never go down.  Da bears are playing a nasty trick on you by flipping the charts upside down.  Go buy another I-patch  or something and all will be well.  And don't forget the bonus; you will be saving a job in Communist China, the bastion of slave labor and free markets.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 03:14 | Link to Comment dunce
dunce's picture

The producers were ready to rock and roll with Romney in the oval office, The stock indexs are not the economy, the rising averages are just adjustments for printing press dollars. Obama did not have a clue about how our economy worked 4 years ago and he has learned nothing since then. Any of a number of exogenous events could trip this stumbling economy and more of the same borrow and spend  will not lift it up again. The democrats always want to tax and spend, and now they have found a way to force taxes up even if they are kicked out of office  because the giant debt must eventually be paid out of tax dollars. The whole scheme is based on the idea that our economy will expand enough to cover the debt, but the debt is growing much faster than the economy. The hole is just getting deeper but that is also the plan. They will promise to fix everything with the elimination of that rotten constitution. The philosopher kings from ivy league schools will assume control of our utopia.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment d edwards
d edwards's picture

Behold! The Buraak Hoover 0webama depression. Just add big tax increases like Hoover.

Ah, the wonders of socialism/fascism!

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