The Most Important Chart To Consider For The Weekend (Or Tom Lee's Nightmare)
Sometimes, it just pays to keep it simple stupid. At some point, the dismal economic reality of our post-credit-creation-miracle boom world will reassert itself in asset prices. The catalyst may not be obvious (like a close-election reminding a nation of sheep just how divided we are as a people and implicitly as a political class - and what that means for our future fiscal probity); but it is coming. 'Cycles' cycle; the Fed has fired its bazooka; and OMT omnipotence is in doubt;and the only way we get 'moar money' from our central planners is if their hand is forced by a reversion to reality...
US economic data may be surprising to the upside (of economist's expectations - weighted by what is clearly now the most bullshit pre-election datasets we have seen) but as we have said before - there is no decoupling, it is lagging and leading behavior (combined with the normal pre-election upward bias of hopium in sentiment). The chart above makes it clear that while some have seen positive moves by US-specific macro data surprises, the rest of the core international economies are doing decidedly badly - and US equities remain ignorant (for now).