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The Most Important Chart To Consider For The Weekend (Or Tom Lee's Nightmare)

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Sometimes, it just pays to keep it simple stupid. At some point, the dismal economic reality of our post-credit-creation-miracle boom world will reassert itself in asset prices. The catalyst may not be obvious (like a close-election reminding a nation of sheep just how divided we are as a people and implicitly as a political class - and what that means for our future fiscal probity); but it is coming. 'Cycles' cycle; the Fed has fired its bazooka; and OMT omnipotence is in doubt;and the only way we get 'moar money' from our central planners is if their hand is forced by a reversion to reality...

 

 

US economic data may be surprising to the upside (of economist's expectations - weighted by what is clearly now the most bullshit pre-election datasets we have seen) but as we have said before - there is no decoupling, it is lagging and leading behavior (combined with the normal pre-election upward bias of hopium in sentiment). The chart above makes it clear that while some have seen positive moves by US-specific macro data surprises, the rest of the core international economies are doing decidedly badly - and US equities remain ignorant (for now).

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 


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Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Buckle up kids it going to be a wild ride.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

let's pull up some Japan circa 1990's charts and do a little cross-sample extrapolating, why don't we?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Kitler
Kitler's picture

MOAR = Mother of All Reflations

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Hindenburg!

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:19 | Link to Comment zerozam
zerozam's picture

Hindenburg omen anyone?

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 02:20 | Link to Comment paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

Last Hindenburg Omen was in late July I think, so has time expired.

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/chartbook/123237122

 

 

 

 

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Was there a Hindernburg Omen before the '87 crash?  Cause the stock market is currently tracing out a parallel pattern to just before the '29 and '87 crashes:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/11/extreme-danger-immediately-...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment NobleSavage
NobleSavage's picture

I wonder when we will ever reach 1 Quadrillion in debt.  

People 50 years from now will be singing : I want to be a trillionaire so f..n bad...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 23:33 | Link to Comment masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

In Zimbabwe, it was "trillionaire will work for food."

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Thecomingcollapse
Thecomingcollapse's picture

Black Monday, I'm ready all ready!

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Starting in Straight of Hormuz. The Iranians wage a bit of assymetric war this weekend and Monday goes to hell faster than a rabid algo turning on itself.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Iranians?" Is that what they're calling the latest CIA op?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

AAPL will soon be worth less than a pice of cardboard:

 

From E-Bay UK:

http://tinyurl.com/ba6e3bm

 

 

A piece of cardboard (shaped a bit like a popular phone) – USED

 

 

Item condition: Used Time left: 7d 22h (17 Nov, 2012 22:57:11 GMT) Current bid: £70,100.00    60 bids ]   Place bid   Enter £70,200.00 or more

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

All I can say after going over there is, better be sure you know who has access to your credit card. Some poor unsuspecting fool is going to be really pissed off next weekend when the charges show up on his card account.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Syria is the more likely source of trouble in the immediate term, but Iran is also a possibility.  The new moon is on Nov. 13 and the stock market appears to be crashing into it like occurred in late-October of 1929:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/11/extreme-danger-immediately-...

(The new moon is obviously of strategic importance if Israel was planning to strike Iran post-U.S. election.)

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Banks that actually participate in the system make better catalysts, but in a pinch they might suffice.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Assymetric war?  Sounds hot.  Isn't that a Greek tactic, though?

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

THE GREEK WAY! no spellcheck?¿?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment franzpick
franzpick's picture

'Black Monday' I've been ready for: it's the upcoming black week that has me worried...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

4 years of over massaged over cooked sandbagged rigged underestimated over estimated revised recalculated economic reports coming home to roost....what could happen?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment NobleSavage
NobleSavage's picture

I think Black Friday will come first this moth before a Black Monday event.  

The now"confident" US consumer will flex his muscle and wiggle his belly at least more time. 

 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

'Black Weekend' has a nice ring to it. And it should be popular with voters. People love a 4 Day Weekend. Especially if it's a federal holiday.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Wait. Since it's after Turkey Thursday, it would be a 5 Day Weekend. Unheard of!

No WONDER people voted for more Obama.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

It will start on a Sunday night in Asia...where the HFT´s can really control the market on little volume......then when the USA opens on Monday.....it will already be crashing and we will not be able to adapt fast enough...its amazing how many countries on the verge of this and that...I think the next big APP of this decade will be starvation.....

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Which to eat first, the eyepad or the gold. Hmmmm.....

Sun, 11/11/2012 - 01:14 | Link to Comment DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

youngman, you sound like Billy Mitchell back in 1929 predicting the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor...he was right, too.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Black is beauitiful (ask Obama), but it is not coming to the markets any time soon.  

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Reality, what a concept.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The Economic news is anything but promising. The news out of Japan was horrible last week. The news out of China was "transitional window dressing" at best. The news out of Germany, France and Spain was crappy.

  The news out of "South East Asia" was marginal, [Korea, Singapore]. The news out of "South America", crappy.

 The only reason endless printing is flying below the radar, is because "lack of demand" is horrible...

   That chart divergence says it all. +1 Tyler

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

And then ... GB said well ... gee ... we don't believe that printing money is the correct thing last week.  So ... maybe we buy some pounds?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Well done Angie. That Sterling trade, does look interesting.  I was getting fired up over the cross... [gbp/jpy]

 Not so sure now. I like that more than eur/jpy and aud/jpy though. 67% of Australian bonds are foreign owned.

  Guess we'll see next week.

 Mervyn King, knows GW...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Funny...as you would have thought that the lousy earnings we have seen so far this qtr would have removed "surprise" from any sell side guy's lexicon at this time.  

I am anything but surprised about the state of things just now.  That the blue line is so far above the red line in that chart is an indication of just how broken the market is....which is also NOT surprising.

In any event...nice coverage this week ZH.  Suddenly...."surprisingly" for some, I guess...the markets are fun again!  

Best wishes to all the folks who bought that 1380 S&P line this afternoon, and now have to sit and stew on it for the weekend.  We all have our crosses to bear. 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Cdad, you've been mostly quiet for a while now.  Nothing makes sense.  Stay safe and stay prepared.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Busy lately.  A lot of short term trading in the past few weeks.  

As for prepared...I am nicely so.  

And as for "nothing making sense"...brother Helluva...I cannot remember the last time ANYTHING in this country or this market made any sense, at all.  I believe the ZH approved phrase is "baffle them with bullshit."  However, and since we have clearly all been here before...baffling folks is much, much harder to pull off.

You take care, brother.  It's about to get quite messy around here.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

It's about to get quite messy around here.

^Bring it, I'm game.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Crabshacker
Crabshacker's picture

%96.5 of the sheeple are game..just like a buck in a clear cut!

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

this last week the market has been like before march 2009,  where 10 years of chart reading and resistance lines, flags and channels have been working like back in the real market.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i've learned better at the end of a couple of 25 point gap ups in the /es.  but i'm hardheaded and stayed short from 1387.   here's hoping it doesn't end in tears.  

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

"Best wishes to all the folks who bought that 1380 S&P line this afternoon, and now have to sit and stew on it for the weekend. We all have our crosses to bear. "

They're handing out tissues at Daneric's.

+1 Cdad

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

where are they now Brian Wesbury

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Wouldn’t it be just plain fucked up if the S&P was the right indicator in this case? That would be some funny shit...but as they say, shit happens. In our lifetime, we have been fatally stung by over optimism and hopium, but i dare say there will be a point where we will be equally stung by pessimism. Scrap that, it already happened.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:58 | Link to Comment Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Keep on stacking those 10oz silver bars.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Charts don't apply anymore.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You might want to Re-think, that remark.

If I asked you a question related to fuel prices in your neighborhood, and supplied a cost chart for you, would it be relevant?

  Charts are only as reliable as their makers...  Some of the best charts are just referrence points from fellow traders. ;-)

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Yen, your grammatical gibberish and crazy train of thought never ceases to amaze me. 

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Who? What Itch?  I think you have the wrong guy? 

  If you elaborate, I'll think about entertaining your comment...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

only the blow hole determines reality not charts. ;)

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thank You buzz. ;-)

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Yen, as always there are exceptions to the rule. No doubt you are right in what you point out. My remark was short for charts showing results in market manipulation, which when pondered and used to extrapolate meaning lead to mistakes in investment. They also keep employed a whole host of chartists and talking heads.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's Friday evening, and I appologize if you were offended in any way. We at Z/H have pretty thick skins.

  I think that you are 100% correct on your "quality of (dis)- information" thoughts. Welcome to the club...

It only gets better...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Nonsense. Without charts all is blind. I have never been wrong. Listen to the trees...

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:21 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

oh yeah they do.  check out the SLV, as an example.  perfect fibonocci retracement.  a thing of beauty actually.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Tom.the.Bomb
Tom.the.Bomb's picture

because I love ZH

 The best conversation in human history !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVBYwntkiFA

 

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 for the seriously needed gut chuckle.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

 

the Fed has fired its bazooka

So is that the official 'Money Shot?'

(Technically, it would actually be a currency shot, I guess.)

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What's reality again?

I have a dim memory of it; though it sometimes surfaces when I buy food and gas.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i'm ready, too !   i have nothing in the market, i listened to my grandma years ago.   i have nothing in banks.   everything i own is held outside of the banking system, like FELIX ZULAUF said to do.    but, i want to see this market go bidless & get it over with just to be vindicated .    i'm the laughing stock of my friends & family, been screaming for 4 years to get out, get out , get out cause this thing is going to DOW 4,000 ..... i'm still a laughing stock.   

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment hustler etiquette
hustler etiquette's picture

the charlie indigo alpha can just redirect the loot from cocaine sales into the market too

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Pump the market like to cheap ho until the election is over then bet it colapses then let it collapse.

What the surprise?

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 02:35 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

WILE E.COYOTE update:

SP500 head & shoulders formation on daily chart continues.
SP500 weekly chart also shows likely head & shoulders.
DOW monthly chart shows bearish rising wedge.

The current bearish price action comprises the first installment of the very overdue Wile E. Coyote sell off.
As mentioned, the previous SPX meltup - devoid of healthy retracements - has caused the coming crash.

One can only stretch the bungee cord so far before it reacts...

http://trader618.com
http://tinyurl.com/ZH-Forum

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Snapdragons: my favorite flower.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

what is the chart's source?

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

The stock market is right now in a very difficult juncture. While still in a primary bull market (notwithstanding the current secondary reaction), there is inminent risk that a primary bear market signal is flashed.

 

Here you have the details and how to spot the bear market in a timely manner:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-p...

 

 

Sun, 11/11/2012 - 00:59 | Link to Comment ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

The amplitude of the red line increases with each oscillation, it will easily catch up in tandem with S & P 500 on the next rally; which appears imminent. I see no problem here.

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