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Worst Week In 5 Months For Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Cash equity markets closed the day very marginally in the green - ending the worst week in over five months. S&P 500 futures are bleeding red after-hours as we note significant volume came in after the President began speaking - from which we closed down 1%. Cross-asset correlations were extremely high today as it seemed all about equities (and equities were all about AAPL). Credit markets (and volatility) were not enjoying the morning party as much as stocks but by the close equities reverted back down to reality. Gold remains the week's big winner (post-election) but we note that 10Y yields fell from over 1.75% into the election to under 1.60% at their lows today. The USD ended the week +0.6% and Treasury yields down 10-15bps. AAPL gained 1.75% (phew) but traded extremely technically with heavy volume around VWAP into the close which helped Tech slightly outperform Financials on the week (-2.5% vs -3.1%). A day of technical bounces and all eyes on stocks...

An ugly week for US equities...

 

with a clear winner - Gold... as it seems equity 'profits' are rotated into real assets and bonds...

 

The capital structure in general was not buying was stocks were selling today... the upper lefty chart shows that credit/volatility/rate (HYG/VXX/TLT) were deceidely less sanguine about things than stocks all day... Across the broad basket of risk assets that our CONTEXT model represents, everything was pegged to stocks all day - we have seldom seen cross-asset-class correlations (lower right) this high and suggests a market very much on edge...

 

And here is AAPL's fascinating day...ensuring it did not close the week below its 55-week average...

 

and where the S&P stands...bouncing off its 200DMA... holds at swing highs from July, bounced to Draghi's edge, then was sold in size...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Listening to Jamie Diamond makes me want to jump off a bridge

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Bridges are so 2011. Get with it and jump off a cliff...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Going over a cliff may be what the stock market is doing:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/11/extreme-danger-immediately-...

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Thecomingcollapse
Thecomingcollapse's picture

Zero Hedge being down all the time makes me want to jump of a bridge!  Makes me itchy when I can't get webpage to load and get sent to some page saying it's down... I start thinking big brother finally got you Tyler, then I looking out the window to see if I'm next.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

My first thought exactly...damn, they got TD :(

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Listening to Jamie Diamond makes me want to jump off a bridge

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

He's a crappy singer too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkgfFOkegjM

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

didnt you mean the "crash equity markets" ?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Looks like Ben Bernanke will have to come to the rescue (again):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar6xC8KM-jk

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

It's rare to see footage of an FOMC meeting.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment HD
Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Bad as this is, it's worse in small business.  Most of my drinking buddies were expecting some relief from the Washington Shit Storm out of this election.  They didn't get it.  Now, they are in a genuine state of shock. 

Lots of folks looking for an exit strategy.  Hope no one yells FIRE.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

Some of it might have to do with business demographics, but we are on our way to our worst november in 15 years.  In 08 november was much better than the current situation.  Gross income was down a good bit in 09, but due to fuel/raw materials prices net was pretty decent.  08 was a great sales year but prices kept profit down.  We haven't let go a single employee since 07 when we did a minor restructuring.  We haven't added a single position since then either.  This year looked like it was going to beat last until Q4 rolled over.

Business wise, I've got no idea what is going to happen, so it is kind of hard to prepare.  One key thing I might add is that inquiries have been way down, which is unusual as even when people might not have the money for our product, they still want to find out how much it is and the details about it.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No worries, consumer confidence best since July 2007 when the current Depression kicked into gear.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

<-----

<-----

Nov 12 Black Monday

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:46 | Link to Comment The.Oracle
The.Oracle's picture

:)

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I try not to get too trapped in esoteric off the wall stuff too much but 11:11 is significant for some reason making 11/12 very reasonable.

10/26 was something too and so is 12/21.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Are the bears reloading for an attack later on in the month?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

55 week on AAPL

200 DMA on ES

These need to hold, of course.  

QE3 liquidity creeping in next week.

Saw reasuring technicals all throughout today on most broader indices.

Would expect a mini-rally.

Those who have not sold for tax purposes can wait another month for better sell-off prices.

At least, that would be the illusion.

If volume goes down, market will go up.

Sorrry, not a doomer for next week.

In fact, the same old bear trap will be sprung for the 488th time since March 2009.

Bears never learn.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

There is no such thing as any viable technical analysis. it is pure voodoo and I would challenge anyone to provide even 1 documented study showing otherwise. If all these lines and wiggles meant something then everyone would act in anticipation of the expected thus negating it and making all your voodoo moot. It is fantasy and fodder for the simple minded.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

american stocks; S&P, DJIA, Nasdaq ; and Dax are in very dangerous levitation.

Stocks were fine upto Sept.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

still way overpriced imo. damn manipulaturds.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Or this could be the best week for stocks for the next 5 years :-).

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Gold / usd/ bond prices, moving together this week? Something nasty is about to happen, and It's probably going to be some benign overlooked "axiom" that blows up.

  P.S. Good post Buzz.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It's not possible!?!?

What about QE3!?!?

BTFD you sheeple!!!  Move all your "cash on the sidelines" into equities!!!

We swear we won't liquidate the markets at your expense again, or confiscate whatever you have with Draconian taxation schemes and annuities!!!  Swear to God!!!  Just ask Jon Corzine!!!

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Every good bankster/mobster, needs a good "nick name"...    How does [ Jamie the "Blow Hole" Dimon] work for you Z/Hers?

   props to wb-7 for inspiration.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

DJIA < 200-day moving avg...LOOK OUT BELOW! 

Also, as a reminder, Facebook Doomsday is on Nov 14th.  Goodbye FBook!!! $100B mkt cap...AAAAAAND IT'S GONE!

In related IPO junk stock news LNKD is trading below its 200-day moving avg.  Not surprising when you consider their P/E ratio is almost 900.

Dreams don't last forever.  Eventually, we all have to wake up.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

My shorts have that 'Chris Matthews' kind of tingle.

Sat, 11/10/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

The stock market is right now in a very difficult juncture. While still in a primary bull market (notwithstanding the current secondary reaction), there is inminent risk that a primary bear market signal is flashed.

 

Here you have the details and how to spot the bear market in a timely manner:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-p...

Sun, 11/11/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

Why is everyone saying the legislated changes must be stopped? 

At the same time the media say spending must be reduced and 'revenue' increased!

 

These fearsome changes have been needed for many years.  Something has to change in the way politicians buy votes and voters acquire 'benefits'.

 

Finally, I wonder why few pundits try to remind people that Keynes said the additional debt must be paid back during the good times.

Remember "Surpluses as far as the eye can see" in 1999-2000?

 

We have only ourselves to blame for the irresponsible abuse of the Public Checkbook!. 

 

I look forward to your howls of denial!

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