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Efficient Op-Ed Hypothesis: "Fiscal Cliff" Soars After Obama Win
Whocouldanode? Since August 2011, we have know this painful combination of tax-cut cessations and spending cuts (sequestrations) was due to hit as yet another painful decision 'can' was kicked down the road by the 'super committee'. In February 2012, Bernanke coined the term 'fiscal cliff' for this chaos and since then we have been active in discussing the impact (329 ZeroHedge articles). From pointing out the market's total lack of 'pricing-in' to comprehending the contagion and impact of the 'fiscal cliff' or slope or hill, it would appear the world has been numbed into denial by the monetary policy medicine needed to get an incumbent re-elected. The 'efficient' market is now catching on - as are the 'efficient' headlines as we see searches and news stories surge about this critical event horizon. Between Bloomberg's news story count and Google's search volumes, it would appear the American public is waking up to the reality about to beset them now that re-hope is back.
Bloomberg's news story count...
Via Bloomberg
and Google Trends...
For ZeroHedge alone, there has been 329 articles mentioning the term "fiscal cliff"...
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Thelma & Louise......punch the gas.
That chart looks like the fiscal cliff upside down.
But there doesn't seem to be that Wile E. Coyote moment of pause before the plunge.
Isn't the word "cliff" actually ancient Mayan speak for "reality"?
I think it's Washington-speak for "Not a problem for us spend-happy assholes on either side of the aisle."
Zero will simply address Congress and say:
"You didn't build that cliff."
And poof, it will go away.
Actually, its the ONLY thing they did build!
Hilarious!
THEY BUILT THAT!
Paul "Summon Ancient Aliens" Krugman, the economist whom even Keynes would have obtained a restraint + cease & desist order + slander & libel damages award against, is baaaaaack, bitchez.
Yes, the very same Paul Krugman who argued, right up to 3 weeks prior to the election, that the U.S. was actually in a de facto economic depression (he even hawks his book, "End This Depression Now!," to this very day), but then quickly changed his talking points to how "fairly well" the economy was rebounding once he saw that Romney had a chance of beating the bailouter-in-chief, bitchez, and the same Krugman who many would at least respect more (at least for being straightforward and honest rather than intentionally obtuse and indirect) if he just came out and stated he wishes upon a star for Mexican living standards brought about by a 75% debasement of the remaining purchasing power of the USD over the next 5 years:
Squirming Hawks: by Paul "Release The Kraken" KrugmanThe fiscal cliff is nothing more than an opportunity for the "never let a good crisis go to waste" crowd, who see it as one small step for markets, one giant leap for totalitarianism in America...
You know, don't ya. That there is this short fat guy who has a book. "Words that matter". In his used phrases.
We have, Job Creators, Death Tax, Flip Flopper, Terrorist, and Bernanke's gift to him, Fiscal Cliff. Punch the Gas, Hmmmmm.
update......at this time the following items are causing an unusual demand for vomit clean up in aisle 6.....xmas music and displays in august , the "fiscal cliff" and now the combo platter of ...(drum roll)...."rise above" the "fiscal cliff"....i think it is quite clear now that we are being prepared for getting it so big and hard up the ass that a log splitter may be more pleasent......
A Thelma and Louise drive over the fiscal cliff will not happen. The Wile E. Coyote moment will not happen. There are too many painful consequences for GOP constituencies (AMT is just one) for the Repubs to adopt a hard stance. Actually, th two parties are probably closer to a reasonable compromise than ever. A temporary plan that addresses the problem partially and buys time will be announced before EOY. Do not leave public policy outcome prognostication up to Google Trends or the MSM, which will exagerate and distort for ratings build, and has little domain competence or success in this area.
Long live the status quo. The time is not yet.
I'm thinking 18 months before the debt printing starts getting hairy -- Trillions are hard to keep buried even if they are just 1's and 0's.
Taxes will be going up. I suspect in addition to their current inflation tax you'll see a closing of loopholes for little people. 1%'ers are in control for now.
" Trillions are hard to keep buried even if they are just 1's and 0's."
-----------------------------------------------------------
I think that depends on how much garbage you have on your balance sheet. Look at the MBS and derivative contracts that are on the books. Seems to me there is a lot of garbage to "dissappear".
Know your history, the 0.1 %er's are always in control until the supply lines break and the paper promises all die, same as it ever was. Think about what is left behind, physical assets, and the 0.1 % are always holding these, so so should you. We became a rentier society long ago, who will be paying yours when you get old? Don't be left holding paper promises because they will all be worthless.
"Reasonable compromise" = "Print"
meep meep
" Trillions are hard to keep buried even if they are just 1's and 0's."
While I agree the time is PROBABLY not yet, it's a funny thing about exponential functions: even with very little time to go, things can seem quite sustainable.
There will be a drive off the cliff, because that is what Obama wants to happen. Boehner too!
Obama will let this thing drive off the cliff. He will present the illusion of compromise ,but they won't. The illusion will allow him to blame it on the republicans when it happens. If we go off the cliff he gets everything he wants..higher taxes....less military spending. There will be no agreement.. there are already demacrats calling for Obama to do nothing about the cliff.
It's possible. As long as they are confident that everyone will run towards the treasury market and not away from it there is a good possibility they let it happen.
I think it is easier to keep the markets at ease and what's left of the ignorant middle class with their heads buried deep in the sand, but it's possible they drive right off.
The way I see it Obama has the upper hand.He has nothing to lose and the 2014 elections the republicans have too many seats to defend. Even if American goes witha throw the bums out attitude the democrats win just because of the number of seats they need to defend versus what the republicans need to defend.
The only fly in the ointment I see with that is it destructs the whole wealth effect that the Bernak has been trying to keep propped up. We go off that cliff and housing goes right in the tank. Throw in a massive market correction to boot. You are probably right that that Obama could possibly shift the blame and people may go along with it. I guess since I have totally checed out since the election I may be underestimating that aspect. I just think Bernake is telling Obama "see this whole printy thing works! Lets paper over everything!" and Obama is late for dinner with Clooney and just says "whatever".
equity and housing bust = sheep running to gov't for protection/relief/free shit/etc
"the republicans have too many seats to defend."
What about 55-45 Ds in the Senate - and 1 D in the WH in 2016 - seems to me both parties have lots to lose from that standpoint...
@fonz said "As long as they are confident that everyone will run towards the treasury market and not away from it"...in the long run (which may not be so long) it doesn't matter. The dems will come for all your 401Ks to save the world. If your Plan B is not executed soon, and I do mean soon, you get all the ass-raping you did or did not vote for.
The only player in the treasury market that matters is the Fed. They conjure up 1s and 0s and use them to 'buy' government debt instruments (and prop up mortgage securities, too) at a rate (and with the capacity) that makes it moot whether any sovereign funds, institutions or retail 'investors' are interested in buying at any time other than when they are front running (buying low - selling high to the wizard of Marriner Eccles).
The Fed doesn't even need to be buying that much or any at all, really. They just need for everyone to believe that they can and will come in and buy it all if needed.
I am interested in reading anyone's thoughts about where the limit is to such buying. If at the next auction, not enough debt was being bought to finance the government, the Fed would certainly step in. If they had to participate and buy 25% would it matter? How about 50% or even 75%? If that didn't have consequences, why not buy 100%? Or, why not have the Fed pay an actual negative interest rate? Those 1s and 0s aren't hard to add, after all.
I'd love to believe that somehow it would matter, but at this point I honestly don't think it would besides adding to the amorphous inflation that we will never see officially represented anywhere.
Exactly. Democrats got to raise taxes and gut the military. Let them deal with the layoffs. Republicans get acroos the board spending cuts. Keep in mind those are not cuts but just slowing down the rate of growth. The debt ceiling is where the Republicans should refuse to compromise. Rewrite the tax code in exchange for a hike or get used to cutting your budget to stay under the ceiling.
Since for once, inertia is working for us, I wish the GOP would keep that line in the sand. But, there are not enough Tea Party members to make it happen or enough votes within the majority to punish Leadership for their failure. All that will be needed is a few dozen establishment Republican House members to join with the Democrats to pass either a sell-out grand bargain or a debt ceiling increase without meaningful conditions.
Since that is such a low barrier, it will happen and it will be kabuki of the highest order.
Prediction: after much hand wringing and enough dithering to make Hamlet blush, 50 to 75 GOPers will be allowed to vote against the deal as will 120 or so Dems, leaving the compromisers to pass it.
The Senate will either rewrite the rules to disallow the filibuster or will pass the deal as a budget reconciliation, so that there won't be any blocking it.
Methinks you are incorrect. AMT doesn't matter as the Dems plan to not only put the "wealthy" back to the rates prior to Bush but to raise them from there. That is the pay a little more part, not the expiration of the tax cut but an additional tax hike. So the "do nothing alternative" for the repubs just puts the taxes back to pre-Bush where as "compromise" would result in AMT version 2 and more.
Strap on a parachute kids, we're heading off the cliff. And when I say "strap on a parachute", I really mean buy metals that aren't tungsten.
"A Thelma and Louise drive over the fiscal cliff will not happen. The Wile E. Coyote moment will not happen. There are too many painful consequences for GOP constituencies (AMT is just one) for the Repubs to adopt a hard stance. Actually, th two parties are probably closer to a reasonable compromise than ever. A temporary plan that addresses the problem partially and buys time will be announced before EOY. Do not leave public policy outcome prognostication up to Google Trends or the MSM, which will exagerate and distort for ratings build, and has little domain competence or success in this area."
He thinks politicians can prevent the inevitable. Isn't that cute?
Gold, silver, lead, and brass. To quote another ZH member; "One group insures the security of the other". Lots of naked emperors walking around lately.
All I have left is feldspar...
jesus, Obama is giving the fiscal cliff researchers a hard-on!
Time to eat your peas amigo.
popeye eats spinach!
I hope he doesn't show up then cause we don't have any of that crap....just peas.
Remarkably similar to america's projected debt graph..
I'd like to push the Bernank off a fiscal cliff. Or is that a physical cliff?
pods
I'd like to run him through his money printing machines.
I think there is an Illuminati ritual for that...
Too quick, DWD.
Pernanke Put Pitches...
Bernank doesn't believe in physical anything.
YOU CAN DO BOTH. ONE METAPHORICALLY AND THE OTHER LITERALLY!
BRAVO SIR!
Fiscal cliff engineered by the Illuminati, in their evil quest for a NWO. They have been crushed by the Galactic Federation (Google). Spread the wondrous news!
The "fiscal cliff" is another way for politicians to force themselves into the spotlight, just like last year's debt ceiling increase. Yawn.
Tyler Durden = Carnac The Magnificent! All of these mentions of the FC and STILL they will allow it to happen. That's why Romney threw the election, so that the blame would fall on the Demrepubs....I meand the Republicrats....I mean those other guys!
This is just another straw man to be knocked down Mario Draghi style. Some big announcement will come out soon that an agreement has been reached in principle. It's another last ditch attempt to pump the market up. Once the details of it fail to come together the media will declare that they are sick of talking about it and some other straw man will be set up.
The con goes on.
"Some big announcement" - that is how they market it, isn't it? What a farce...
Late-model, pre-packaged parachute for sale. Never been used. Asking for 25oz Au / Monster Box of Ag OBO
"Give me warp drive, Scotty!"
I love your avatar
We hope re- hope is a stronger opiate than hopium
The jug of Koolaid is almost emply......no call for panic just yet.
The Obama retread - 'more hope than ever before!' (TM)
The only people I hear complaining about the fiscal cliff are military and wall street. Ironic seeing as those two also complain the loudest about the deficit.
I don't know why we are worrying about any of this... We all know they're going to kick the can yet again. Then, when the rating agencies downgrade, the legacy media will be ordered by Uncle Scam to fling shit at them until something sticks (expect accusations of incompetence all the way up to treason and everything in-between). Meanwhile, the politicians will be dining in celebration with their lobbyists at another problem "solved". Basically... business as usual. And it will be that way until the USD is completely destroyed.
I don't know anybody here who is worried.....there are a lot of stupid pleebs out there who buy into the meme of the day, but not here,
There are some meme loving stupid plebs here too.
Just different memes.
Could be good news if the "disappear" Zandi.
Wow! It's almost as if it were planned or something.
Nope, just good old fashion bad luck.
Climb fukkers, there's a free Chevy Volt on top of that cliff!
ZEROHEDGE= RACIST
'
Obama will save the day, because he is "exactly like Mitt Romney"
Obama will NOT save the day, because he is "exactly like Mitt Romney"
3 out of 5 Americans thought it was his white brother from another mother.
Never believe statistics...
I must be a racist.....someone told me I was.
Criticize the blithering idiots and suddenly you're a racist. Well that kinda sucks.
I labeled Israel as an 'Apartheid State' ~ so I'm 'anti-semitic'... I'll go sit in the corner now...
There was a day a long time ago when '= RACIST' meant something...now it's the boy who cried 'wolf!'
The only way the American public could have been informed of the fecal cliff is if it was mentioned on Kardasians or Jersey Snore.
i also noticed this in the australian media. I wonder if TPTB have told the media's of the world "it's time" that we warn the proles of impending doom (although it probably a little late for those who dont read ZH).
Gee, ya think it could have something to do with the 62,000,000 google NEWS hits for "fiscal cliff".
Foxnews.com alone has 22,546 stories and videos on "fiscal cliff". You keep drumming a phrase into the sheeple's heads, they google it. Is it too much to hope that they click on the Wiki that comes up on top or the search results or will the bright yellow "Fiscal Cliff Ahead" warning sign next to the Fox News story be too much to resist?
4 more years of destructicve communism.
Why shouldn't temporary tax cuts be allowed to expire? Why shouldn't military spending be cut? Why shouldn't Medicare reimbursements be lowered?
In other words, why is the fiscal cliff so scary?
Answer: it is scary because its emotional impact is high. No one has a crystal ball that is reliable. It is quite possible the effects of taking no action to forestall implementation of the fiscal cliff edicts will be beneficial.
After all, one way to reduce debt consists in increasing revenue (as in eliminate tax cuts) while simultaneously reducing spending on a wide variety of things, including military spending and Medicare costs.
Prognostication of doom as a result of those effects is just that--someone's guess.
You can bet your ass if those military cuts expire there will be a domestic attack that same week.
They shouldn't expire because that's not how con games work. Look at all the confidence that will be generated when tax cuts, benefits, and the imperial battlestars are all saved.
Grifterment, not government.
"why is the fiscal cliff so scary?...it is scary because its emotional impact is high."
The fiscal cliff does represent some real amount of demand, even if badly misallocated, and heretofore little accountable to much fiscal discipline. If it transpires it will have a real effect on the economy, even if it is needed medicine. Your comment about emotional impact certainly comes into play - the parties/party won't allow it to happen for that reason alone. Short term, vs. long term thinking. The question really is though, do we try to take the needed medicine, or do we fall off the cliff as it's crumbling under our feet, or as Ron Paul says, are we already off the cliff? I think the time for a beneficial dose of medicine is probably long past.
"Prognostication of doom" - I mean, you'll agree we're in a nasty recession/depression depending on your views - Un and underemployment in the low 20s at least and all kinds of malaise and underclass out there. Are you seeing 'green shoots' out there?? A large blow to demand in this condition means what then? At the very least things are going to get (way) worse before they get better. That too may be nature's way (invisible hand?) of applying the needed medicine for the wrongheaded/selfish decisions of the past that have saddled every 18 year old kid and younger in the US with >$200,000 in 'national debt'...
Budget Control Act of 2011 is the official name. Signed by President Obama to avert any spending cuts or tax increases before the election it was not described as a 'fiscal cliff' then but a bipartisan solution to our fiscal problems.
Just as the much heralded and applauded Budget Control Act of 1997 wasn't described as the kicking seniors off Medicare law that is mentioned every year before agreeing to the 'doc fix'.
Funny how that works, no?
Re numerous articles saying the FISCAL CLIFF must be averted.
Why is everyone saying the legislated changes must be stopped?
At the same time the media say spending must be reduced and 'revenue' increased!
These fearsome changes have been needed for many years. Something has to change in the way politicians buy votes and voters acquire 'benefits'.
And, Our ELECTED Representatives actually voted on doing something!
Finally, I wonder why few/none of the financial pundits try to remind people
that Keynes said the additional debt must be paid back during the good times.
Remember "Surpluses as far as the eye can see" in 1999-2000?
We have only ourselves to blame for the irresponsible abuse of the Public Checkbook!.
We already crossed the Rubicon, this doesn't end well for Hail SeizeTsar.
Politicians are just building a ramp up at the end of this fiscal cliff. No sense in just running straight off. Kind of like the up ramp on the aircraft carriers that allowed the jets to take off in a shorter distance, only they can fly, this economy can't.
Higher jump means harder crash.
Just jack the debt ceiling to $1,000 trillion and hold down the Ctrl-P keys and lets get this shit over with already!
Word "fiscal cliff" is a made up thing by FED chairman.
After that media went nuts and then people went nuts and now everybody believes worlds going to end, because of the "FISCAL CLIFF" uuuu.. so scary.
I call bullshit. Even if there is no grand bargain, no zombie apocalypse, sorry.
I wanna go over that cliff......then fly away in my silver rocket ship!
Silver is on hold while I invest in brass and lead.
There will be no mercy.
Can't wait to Baumgartner off the FISCAL CLIFF.
Get the Red Bull sponsership going...
MONSTER might actually be a better partner.