Is VIX Pricing In The Fiscal Cliff?

Tyler Durden's picture

Much is being made of the drop in VIX today - with some suggesting it indicates confidence that investors believe the fiscal cliff resolution is closer. This could not be further from the truth. Investors had bought short-term VIX across the election and are unwinding that protection in the November futures contract but at the same, they are actively bidding for protection across the event-horizon of the fiscal cliff - out to Fedb 2013. The options market is absolutely not pricing in a fiscal cliff resolution and in fact is just beginning to price in the expected rise in realized volatility as the market becomes increasingly headline-sensitive once again.

The shift across the fiscal cliff barrier explains why short-term VIX looks more complacent as the medium-term VIX is bid...

 

As realized vol is on the rise so there remains plenty of room for implied vol to run higher...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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kalasend's picture

15

The more foodstamp collectors, the lower VIX goes.

orangedrinkandchips's picture

RISK HAS LEFT THE BUILDING!!!

 

vix is a broken indickator

virgilcaine's picture

When one starts making animal sounds... well it's a long trading day.  A Nice intra day range though.

DowTheorist's picture

There is another cliff on the horizon: The stock market cliff.

 

The stock market is right now on thin ice. According to Dow Theory is the Transports violate their 09/28/2012 secondary reaction lows, a new bear market would be signaled. Not a good omen.

 

Here you have the relevant chart,  what to look at and comments thereto:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-p...

 

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