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What Do JCP's Bondholders Know That Shareholders Don't?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With JCP's delayed reaction plunge-tastic drop today, it seems shareholders are waking up to the cash-burn and worries implied by the credit market...

 

 

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Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:44 | 2972630 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Bondholders know this Christmas aint last Christmas.

Stockholders don't know what's in the box.

http://www.fanpop.com/spots/saturday-night-live/videos/2519915/title/snl...

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:18 | 2973049 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

You aint kidding.  Wait for Black Friday number to come out.

19 dead sales down 9% deaths up 40%.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:36 | 2973139 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When does Icahn take a 10% stake in JCP?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:12 | 2972642 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Tim Geitner is going to be the head of their tax division!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:13 | 2972655 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

maybe JCP should alienate more fly-over-country americans by running more ads with Ellen the Dyke and appealing to the .5% of this country that is gay. Cramer says its a BUY!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:15 | 2972663 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When does Ackman sell his entire JCP stake?  That is the only question my mind.  Does Ackman have a stop limit approach or something at least?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:19 | 2973055 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Rise above it buddy.  We get no where engaging in their rhetoric.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:38 | 2973097 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

We're all faggots now.   Dumb-shit faggots will save the economy.  Do these skinny jeans make my asshole look like lunch?

All fags all the time, anything less is a hate crime!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:15 | 2972661 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The fuse is lit?  Look at the USD/JPY pair.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:22 | 2972698 Orly
Orly's picture

Yes, it is acting very, very strange...almost what was once considered, "normal."  The AUDUSD pair is acting as a buffer, though, and is still shooting for the 1.05-level but I don't think it will get there.

:D

Addo:  It's not there yet but it is slowly turning back into Dr. Jekyll...

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:06 | 2972963 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

funning how things start acting "normal" when there is no tsy market shenanigans

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:11 | 2973007 Orly
Orly's picture

That wasn't the case last week when the auction of the 10s and 30s was making my head squirm.  We'll see if it sticks.  If it does, long U/J could be a hella trade for a long time.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:16 | 2972672 greyghost
greyghost's picture

well the alternative lifestyle campaign was a complete failure...go figure. all the chiefs walk way with million dollar bonuses while the worker bee colony collapses. oh, wait.....where is mittens for the stick save?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:19 | 2972683 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

JCP is losing money.  I work for a vendor; I know.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:26 | 2972724 Orly
Orly's picture

What, they're bouncing checks or always "at lunch" when you come to get paid?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:28 | 2972733 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

slow pay? no pay? spill it!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:33 | 2972749 greyghost
greyghost's picture

shizzmoney that is a great way to track the health of companies. my son in law works for a forklift company and he can tell me which of his companies are on the ropes thru various phases of the cycle. i'll have to ask him about the jcp boys.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:37 | 2973144 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I dunno if checks are bouncing, but I do know our orders to them are waning......and I had to set up 20+ items for them that they eventually ended up not buying, wasting my time.

It's not as visible, like Sears/Kmart, closing stores left and right......but JCP being around by 2013-2014 will be a surprise.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 14:22 | 2973330 Stochdoc
Stochdoc's picture

Hell, I thought they went out of business years ago.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 02:29 | 2975317 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

Montgomery Ward will buy them out...

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:19 | 2972689 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Quick sell them to Ben for par.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:20 | 2972694 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

JC will soon be worth pennies...long tungsten

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:21 | 2972700 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What's next?  SHLD? 

lol

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:20 | 2972701 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

what is up with VIX?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:23 | 2972710 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Like everything else in this market it's broken.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:21 | 2973063 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Have you tried glitter?  I hear glitter fixes everything.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:27 | 2973093 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

but but but JCP is a real estate play like sears holding NO? oh current stock holders get bk'd first. then to the moon.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:07 | 2972971 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

no moral compass from the bond market today [sarc]

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:21 | 2972702 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

The question is, do these lines on the graph necessarily have to return to the same level any time soon?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:25 | 2972716 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Man fuck JC Penney...

look what this bitch ass bankers did to Silver...

notice the London open

then the Comex open....

then the price going into the London close....

every day for the last almost 3 years the same pattern....

there aint no coincidences....

FUCK YOU BERNANKE & ALL YOU BITCH ASS DEBT COUPON DOLLAR BANKERS....

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:25 | 2972719 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the stock is a zero. don't worry about johnson, he got plenty.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:29 | 2972735 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Moody to maintain AAA credit of USA even if fiscal cliff happens!!

Moody's says would maintain US rating, outlook in event of fiscal cliff, await further cues

Says:

- US delaying budget action until 2013 looks increasingly likely.
- US election result gives little clarity on fiscal outlook.
- US political landscape remains highly polarized and unpredictable.
- Divided US popular vote provides fertile ground for political posturing.
Update details:

- The US sovereign rating will be closely watched by investors as we had into year end and the potential fiscal cliff.
- These comments may ease some investors minds but the looming uncertainty about the near-term future for the US economy will likely provide headwinds for the next couple of weeks.

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/moody-s-says-would-maintain-us-rating-outlook-in-event-of-fiscal-cliff-await-further-cues-12-11-2012

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:31 | 2972738 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

This is what the bondholders know.  They get a coupon payment yielding 7-9%.  The stockholders get a piece of paper with cool graphic etching and no dividend.

 

Which would you rather have?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:37 | 2972773 pods
pods's picture

This is simply a symptom of what is to come.  

The days of spending money on crap are over.  They ain't coming back.  There is not enough room for a half dozen department stores selling stuff people don't want to buy.

You will have low end (Walmart, Target,$ stores) and a couple high end (Macy's) and that is it.

Not enough to go around and JCP your number is up.

Depressions have a way of thinning the herd.  

pods

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:58 | 2972860 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Went with the wife to the local mall and even though every fucking store was decked out in the Christmas blitz (hell, Santa "arrived" at the mall for the season that afternoon, Saturday 11/10), trees, music, etc. a full 2 weeks prior to Thansgiving, the place did not seem busy at all, even for a Saturday! (The annoited day of shopping!)

Sears, Macy's Bon Ton, Lord & Taylors, Burlington, JC Penny's - every fucking one of them balls to the wall Christmas shit.

These fuckers already reek of desperation and it's two weeks prior to Thanksgiving.

Oh yea, there were only a couple kids waiting for Santa's "arrival" (and availability for $19.99 pictures with the little ones)

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:24 | 2973078 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

We had a lady from the local food shelter speak at our church last week and food is a little low.  Of course donations are great because then they can just buy the things that run low... but, "Of course ffod prices have really gone up and we can only get about half of what we used too."

Nice.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:32 | 2973117 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

No one saw it coming.

Time for TARP 2 to bailout bank payroll cause God's workers can't.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:25 | 2973081 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Santa is only handing out iPad minis and Amazon Wine for Christmas this year.  Department Stores just got to get used to being downstream now.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:10 | 2972993 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

did you mean "depressions used to have away of thinning the herd"?  cuz free money saves everybody now.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:40 | 2972786 adr
adr's picture

My 32 year old wife used to shop for everything at JC Penney. Now she says they suck and all of the clothes are ugly. JCP is trying to go after the tweener crowd and is getting killed.

The Applerific catalog is a joke, I guess JCP doesn't think white people shop anymore.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:43 | 2972807 Conman
Conman's picture

JCP is doomed like fortunoff. They need high end to make it in malls. Someone get Bain capital in there to "rescue" them. And by rescue i mean charge them insane management fees, fire everyone, liquidate, and close them down.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:51 | 2972853 earnulf
earnulf's picture

JCP used to be a decent place to shop, or browse and carried some pretty good sales and clearance.    Trying to "re-educate" the shoppers to something different doesn't work with brick and mortar (might work for all those IPADS people are eating and standing in line for).

Too many designer botiques chasing too few middle class dollars and the middle class wanna-be's are too busy trying to put gas in the tank and food on the table.      Levi's can be bought anywhere, same with some of the other brands that JCP carries.   Fashion is no longer the end-all and be-all for shoppers on a tight budget and poor prospects of improvement (more likelihood of headed the other direction)

I still like JCP, but their "new direction" isn't doing it.    Gonna make a mighty big hole in the mall when they fold and not sure they are going to be able to save it at this point.    

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:06 | 2972965 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Yeah I have to agree they tried to whore themselves up and be trendy. Someone needed to tell them, "you are not, will not, and can never be "cool", but people will still buy your shit."

Speaking of which I need to replenish. Their Stafford Trunk boxer briefs are fantastic. They give just the right amount of hug.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:30 | 2973111 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Surprised JC Penney does not simply nickname their individual stores, depending on location:

JC Comet

JC Homey

JC FCK

JC JC

JC ECB

JV Metrosexual

That is one of the things I would propose. 

"Penney" sounds cheap.

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:12 | 2973013 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

why shop at JCP when you can wait and buy all of their unsold inventory at Costco on the cheap?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 13:34 | 2973127 GCT
GCT's picture

I hate to see JCP go away to be honest.  The apple exec tried to turn it into Wal mart to be honest.  That was never JCP's market.  I no longer shop there!  Hhe exec left with a huge bonus for basically screwing JCP and now I do nto know if it can recover.  I hope they do.

One commenter hit the nail on the head.  They are marketing trendy hip clothing for the youngsters.  That was not JCP's primary customer base.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 14:11 | 2973291 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Not too suprised by this development.  Starting shorting this one synthetically via puts when it was about $38 and have been rolling down and out in duration ever since.  The other one to go to zero is SHLD, but haven't been having much luck with this one or with my NFLX put spreads lately as they're both stuck in a range.  But you have to be patient with these money losing entities-always buy lots of duration (3-6 months out).  Once the panic begins (like with GRPN and ZNGA) they drop like a rock-but I can recall losing quite a bit on my shorts on these ones until suddenly reality set in.  Fear is always stornger than greed!  And how long can TSLA hold on-even with ObamaLoans (its been in the 28-32 range for almost 2 years (TESLA "investors" are really believers just like AGW believers/suckers)? 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 14:29 | 2973358 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

The CEO is a great magician.  He made sales, customers, dividends and profits all disappear.

It's in a death spiral.  Howard Davidowitz was the only analyst who saw this disaster in the making from the beginning.  Check out his videos on youtube.  Howard's great.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 14:32 | 2973375 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Looks like their all electronic cash purchase scheme wasn't such a good idea.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 15:59 | 2973715 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I used to work for JCP as an outside services vendor. The whole problem is incompetent top management - always was. Which means the Board of Directors is also incompetent. The rank & file folks were some of the nicest, hardest-working, smartest people I've ever met - they knew their business and they knew their customers - but every day of their lives was made miserable by the idiots at the top.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:51 | 2973947 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

I read a little blub in the sunday paper and thought

Wow JCP your going down.

It read like Iceberg ahead full steam ahead.

How sad. I gotta go find it  and post it.

Reminds me of do the same thing get the same results.

 http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/money/55245320-79/penney-pricing-stores-com...

 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 01:22 | 2975235 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Long JCP CDS has been a money-losing trade for the bulk of 2012.  The illiquid CDS market (relative to equity) may be right in the long run, but we'll be dead or insolvent by then.

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