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A Whole Lotta Something Going On

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Sigh... Volume is around 50% of average. USD ends the day unchanged; Treasury futures imply an unchanged cash market; Equity indices close practically unchanged but there are some odd-ones-out on the day. Utilities were sold much more heavily that the rest of the S&P sectors (with Tech the only other red sector). Copper managed an outlier gain while oil/gold/silver all dropped. Individual stocks suffered from some exchange drama but all eyes were on JCP (which potentially lost Mr. Ackman $106mm today and ended with a $17 handle (-13%) - its lowest since March 2009; AAPL slid from 'exciting' opening highs to close -0.75% finding every ramp to VWAP was sold into. VIX was the story of the day as much was made of the collapse in front-end risk premia - this (as we explained earlier) was only half the picture as the longer-dated VIX rose relatively as the fiscal-cliff event risk is gradually priced in at year-end. Stocks were considerably more volatile intraday than broad risk-assets (thanks to Treasuries closure) especially after Europe's close, but they ended the day pretty much recoupled.

The ETF Capital Structure (left) statyed relatively in sync after some early exuberance in stocks faded. Broad risk assets (green - right) statyed very quiet while stock meandered around with VWAP as an anchor...

 

S&P futures fell into the European close, ramped to run stops off the highs then drifted back to VWAP close very modestly green on the day... with 50% less than normal volume...

 

Commodities were mixed...especillay interesting given USD unch

 

JCP had a day...-13%

 

Utilities were the worst on the day by a long way - followed by Tech. Healthcare won as Indusrials slipped rapidly into the close...

 

10Y maybe rose 1bps (given where TSY futures traded) but 30Y was unch.

 

and here's VIX term structure... not so bullish eh?

 

which steepened the most (inverted on the chart) in 8 months in the last 3 days... back to its 100 and 200DMA...

 

and Options implied skewness is rising - as complaceny gradually falls from its record highs...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Charts: It would appear the world and his mum have grabbed downside protection on AAPL... as we have ripped from record levels of implied complacency to almost record levels of concern... This chart plots the amount of expectation for a downside distrbution of returns priced into AAPL options prices. We would note that this doesn't mean going full bullish is required as we suspect that the funds that are massively over-exposed to this monster simply overlaid risk into year-end and are (as we see in the second chart below) selling as carefully as they can into every VWAP ramp... who knows but quite a swing...

 

and AAPL's inexorable VWAP-based selling pressure...


 


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Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Bonus to Kevin for providing a positive close.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

My (self limited to one per week) OT post of the week:

Apparently (allegedly), Obamney was/is willing to cut medicare & social security to get to a "grand bargain" on deficit/debt reduction (ha! ha!), but no one...I say NO ONE...better lay a finger on the Defense Contractors' (or Financial/Wall Street Complex teat sucking via ZIRP/NIRP & QE) Butterfinger, bitchez!!!

Here's some alleged documentation from Meet The [Lame Stream] Press (citing useful idiot and/or intentional obfuscator Bob Woodward):

 

Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:58 AM EST

Below are documents obtained by the Washington Post’s Bob Woodward that show a grand bargain proposal the White House was prepared to make in order to reach agreement with the House Republicans last year. This is how Woodward described the documents on Meet the Press this morning:

 

"This is a confidential document, last offer the president -- the White House made last year to Speaker Boehner to try to reach this $4 trillion grand bargain.  And it's long and it's tedious and it's got budget jargon in it.  But what it shows is a willingness to cut all kinds of things, like TRICARE, which is the sacred health insurance program for the military, for military retirees; to cut Social Security; to cut Medicare. And there are some lines in there about, "We want to get tax rates down, not only for individuals but for businesses."  So Obama and the White House were willing to go quite far."


White House Grand Bargain offer to Speaker Boehner Obtained by Bob Woodward

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Bonus chart Tyler?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment credittrader
credittrader's picture

Surprise... AAPL Bonus Charts...

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey as long as its good for stocks, screw the dirt peasants and front line cannon fodder.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They're having a hard time closing green with QEternity4ever. I wonder what's up the Charlatan's...I mean Chairman's sleeve next?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Do I hear an echo of Leo and RobotTrader?

 

PS: I knew that your post was in jest, although it literally could have come out of either of their keyboards in all seriousness.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why are you doing the heavy lifting for Woodward? (Who's doing the heavy lifting for the DC scriptwriters?)

Damn, I kind of thought you knew better than to play in the Kool-Aid.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not. I'm just merely pointing out the super-duper non-intentional (but intentional) leak of a triple-super-top-secret document that Woodward widely distributed to the press corps (corpse) that shows how far Obamney is/was willing to go to protect the real sacred cows (e.g. Goldman-JPM & Lockheed-General Dynamics, etc.).

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Cow
Cow's picture

"Obamney was/is willing to cut medicare & social security to get to a "grand bargain" on deficit/debt reduction"

The Repubs have agreed to various ratios of Govt Reduction in Spending to Taxes over the years (e.g. $3 trillion in cuts for $1 trillion in new taxes).  Guess how man times the new taxes have been put in place?

Now, guess how many times the spending cuts have made it?  Even Reagan got snookered on that one.

Gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today.

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Truth allows me to sneak one in (thanks!)...  A whole lot of something going on down in Peru too.    Very good news for us!

"Another Digit, Another Comma!"

http://tinyurl.com/btxe7xg

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Yep. Watched the close. Kevin had a pretty easy time keepin the Dow green.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dead empty market and FED is about the only one left in 'trading' anything to themselves...should be pretty easy to control your own rigged casino game I guess.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I would not say this market session was dead.  It brought forth some easy shorts intraday.

I remain skeptical though that this  ES 1380 level is a good mid-term short entry on indices.

The term structure on VIX will be annihilated by the NYFED once they start selling volatility again.  

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

FUCK every one of you COWARDS who hide behind the FED. When the REVOLUTION begins, YOU will have a BULLSEYE right between your eyes!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

We’re going over the cliff – because its in Washington DC’s interest to do so.

The passage of time makes things worse not better. So if we wait 6 months, when the economy has further deteriorated, there will be less appetite for ‘paying your fair share’ and more enraged insistence that the Gov. shut down all kinds of rat-holes foreign and domestic. If we go over now, both political parties will be able to blame the other guy and hold out hope that there’s some kind of solution just over the horizon.

The longer they drag this out, the worse the outcome is going to be. Ironically, the best outcome – for both parties – is the nameless faceless other-guys-fault “fiscal cliff”

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?agencyFormId=23779454

 

Welcome to the United States Treasury's 

site for making donations to help reduce the public debt.  If you would like to make a 

donation, please fill in the required fields

and click the Submit Data button when 

completed.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Let the BANKERS and WARMONGERS make this payment

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 00:46 | Link to Comment ZeroFreedom
ZeroFreedom's picture

Is this tax deductable. At least they can make it into a 501 C structure for any donations would be best.

Guess, might donate to stike it to my liberal and conservative friends and say I am paying my fare share where are you. 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats whats really surprising to me, I really thought the banksters would have wanted Romney sock puppet in there to take the heat for it all turning sour. Perfect cover for them I would have thought. 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment blunderdog
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Banksters, collectively, are non-partisan.  There are Dems and 'Pubs and even independents too.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No I didnt say bankers are 'partisan' at all, simply said it would have been the perfect time to usher out the 'messiah puppet' and put in 'much hated whitey repub' to take all the blame. Would have been perfect cover for them, media would love to blame Romeny and rip him to shreds over it, and banksters could skate away free and clear.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 23:24 | Link to Comment blunderdog
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I was suggesting there are just about as many banksters who'd want to see shit pinned on the commie Democrat negro as on a nice guy like Mittens.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

easier to create chaos with Obama... notice the 'military coup' threat growing in the MSM lately?  how do you think that would go down in the inner city....  otherwise, Obomber is great for the war machine...  nary a protest to be found as the war machine continues to grind flesh into pulp...  because he has a peace prize, see... bonafide.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

higher dividend stocks appear to agree as they were the downside outperformers today, it looks like some early votes to take gains now and avoid wash sales before the end of 2012, maybe some foreshadowing?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
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Why the big jump in TIE (Titanium Metals Inc.)?  War mongers front-running?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not sure about that, but spot Tungsten has been directly correlated with increase in requests for repatriation of gold by sovereigns from New York City & London.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Cue Comex to up their margin requirements on tungsten holdings in 3..2..1..

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

Why the big jump in TIE (Titanium Metals Inc.)?  War mongers front-running?

Au contraire, the sheeple are waking up to the fact that their beloved Gov has been piling up on ammo.

+ action = -reaction

Who would have Guetta that?!

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Market appears to be waiting on the next 'liquidity event' - copper increasinly lethargic - http://hedge.ly/SVQs5U

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

???

Glitch prevents trading in over 200 stocks on the NYSE

NEW YORK | Mon Nov 12, 2012 3:50pm EST

Reuters) - NYSE Euronext (NYX.N) on Monday suspended trading in over 200 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange due to a technical problem with a server, though the stocks in question were still trading actively on other markets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/12/us-nyse-trading-glitch-idUSBRE8AB16H20121112

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

... and what's up with housing stocks?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

"Utilities were the worst on the day by a long way "

-NE nuclear transmission issues and electrical grid rebuilding cost estimated to be revised much higher? 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

There is no market in the US anymore. The VIX is at 16.68.  There is no risk in the market as the Fed will buy equities if the market swoons.

With the Fiscal Cliff looming, the VIX should be at least 40 to 50.

The Fed is on eternal QE yet people talk about a market.  If your money is confetti, then can your market purchased with that confetti be anything else?

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

Awsome. 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

SCREW all these LOSERS backing the FED. When the REVOLUTION begins they are all DEAD.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 04:08 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

D@mn Lee, cain't ya just go upside their haids with yer numchucks?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Why are there no conspiratorial articles regarding the NYSE "glitch" today?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think its aliens.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

It's a conspiracy of anti-conspiritorialism, I tell ya!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Lost Wages, you can fill in the blanks. Lets everyone blame different races for everything. You'd think that at least 20% of the posters here belong to KKK. Lets blame the Jews, the blacks and the purple ones for everything. Only we, the Whites are pure. Anybody who disagrees is either a Troll or a CoolAid drinker. Why did racism and hate become a norm here?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I'll take what part of the country did blacks, browns, jews, and purple people make better Alex.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Herodotus
Herodotus's picture

The KKK is the terrorist arm of the Democratic Party.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the roach motel is hanging out the vacancy sign

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

A tight (spreads) market, which is too tight.  Still think the post Obama win and sell off was HFTs, that then panicked long positions. But it didn't end up flash crashing.  The USD spot prices have been flat-lined for over a week.  Even the 'shale Gas' news ramp did nothing to move anything in this market.

 

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Where's Ilene with his FAZ call.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

lol stagflation:

  • China's 21% m/m Oct iron ore import drop. 35% rise in ore price

Hooray for the money printers! You Keynesian f*cking idiots...You dumb bastards think shale gas will be an offset.  Yeah right the costs will be enormous, that and the middle east will pump oil prices up and Israel won't wait 10yrs to blow half of Iran away, who will then blow half of Saudi Arabia away.

I feel better now...

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

FED Print Print QE to Infinity;  Obamula knows to give out foodstamps and Phones; and the people of Rome will "Love Him For it" with the MSM Pimping

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

FDR was popular too, with his 100 different giveaway and make-work programs, even though he was an utter failure at resurrecting the economy and stole everyone's gold.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Whole lot of Rosie, bitchez!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment n8dawg84
n8dawg84's picture

My thoughts exactly

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Utilities are actually getting in touch with reality. There's not enough FCF to support the dividends, fund the pensions, and keep the credit ratings. When in doubt, cut the dividend.

What's interesting on the pensions is that as the Bernanke keeps rates low, the pensions are reducing their returns and they're getting more and more underfunded. And the "cliff" in the industry is that utility employees are getting ready to retire en masse. Bad bad times. Might be time to buy when people realize the dividends get taxed at normal income

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Could be setting up for a "December to remember" with the fiscal cliff/wall, rules for Obamacare being spelled out, Obama's reelection, Sandy, Israel throwing rockets at Syria, China and Japan gettin' hot and heavy and a continued meltdown of the Euro-zone. Besides "that unknown event" (Petraeus getting stabbed in the back then humiliated?) I still think the Fed being forced out of QE by Sandy is my "outlier pick." I really don't see what the House Republicans have to gain by making a deal with the White House. Should be interesting to see if they think they do. It's a lot easier to argue for tax cuts if due to a forced increase plus "sequestration" the economy slips into recession. What to say if the economy slips into recession AFTER announcing an agreement on "keeping the Bush tax cuts in place"? Anywho...leave that one to the experts.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

Alot of you I respect as your comments are insightful.  Have you ever pondered that this sell off may be due to the capital gains taxes going up?  I am sure to get hammered for this question.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I was thinking the same thing. I have to dump 2-3 that I have been holding for years.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

It ain't much of a selloff.  We're barely at the 200-day SMA on the S&P 500.  Nobody should be sweating much less getting seriously worried.  Last year's "debate" about the debt limit produced a much bigger dive.

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

Thanks for the replies all.  WOW the comments section is getting ugly with some off the wall posts!

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

ALL of you FUCKING MORONS who believe in WAR for the sake of WAR should have to pay 100% of your income to taxes. My kid has no business paying for your UNINTELLIGENT War on a TACTIC (not ENEMY) called terrorism....

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Who in the Samhell are you talking about?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:58 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

LooseLee you need to change your name to Lost lee whats this comment all about?

Mon, 11/12/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Biggest mover I'm watching is BPT, falling off a cliff.  Crazy!  It's the BP Prudhoe Bay royalty trust.  Pays 12% dividend and is getting close to its lowest PE ever.

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