• Sprott Money
    05/06/2016 - 06:03
    The US, in its own decline, is showing this same self-destructive tendency. The worse things get, the greater the inclination of the citizenry to say, “Carry on, everything’s fine.”

Living In 'The Day Before'

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

The Day Before
 

  • March 15, 44 BC                    Julies Caesar was assassinated
  • December 25, 4 BC                Jesus Christ was born
  • 476 AD                                 Augustulus deposed ending 505 years of the Roman Empire
  • July 16, 622                            Mohammed began writing the Koran
  • December 25, 800                  Charlemagne crowned “Emperor of the Romans” by the Pope
  • October 14, 1066                    William of Normandy defeated the English
  • June 15, 1215                          The Magna Carta was signed
  • October 12, 1492                    Christopher Columbus set sail
  • 1687                                        Isaac Newton published the “Principia”
  • July 4, 1776                            The Declaration of Independence is signed
  • July 4, 1789                            The French Revolution begins
  • June 19, 1815                          Napoleon is defeated at Waterloo
  • November 24, 1859                Charles Darwin published the “Origin of the Species”
  • April 12, 1861                         The Civil War begins in America
  • March 6, 1876                         Alexander Graham Bell makes the first telephone call
  • December 17, 1903                The Wright brothers make their historic flight
  • June 23, 1914                          The first World War starts
  • October 29, 1929                    The Stock Market crashes & the Great Depression begins
  • December 7, 1941                  The second World War is set-off
  • September 3, 1945                  The first atomic bomb is dropped
  • October 1, 1949                      The People’s Republic of China is born
  • October 1990                          The World Wide Web was inaugurated

 
In each of these instances, at each of these critical moments in time, there was a “day before.” The “day before” was just another normal day, time running its course, twenty-four hours where people may have known that something was up but supposed nothing would change. Markets, you see, always live in this “day before” where the bend in the highway never comes, where the path is always straight and fixed and where it is generally thought that nothing of consequence will happen. Then some event takes place, something magical or wonderful or awful occurs and the world is turned on its axis and nothing is ever the same again. The lead time for many of these moments in history is often long and could have been prepared for but, people being what they are, we tire of the wait and the markets continue to operate on the assumption that this “day before” will always be in effect right up until the moment when it is not. You see; the “day before” is transmuted by Time and what was becomes what is and that could be something very different than our last turn around the sun and to not be prepared is a disservice to your own position and to the capital of your clients.
 
“After all tomorrow is another day.”
 
                     -Gone with the Wind
 
The Looking Glass
 
Women are much better at it than men but we all need to stand and stare into the mirror and take a very hard look at what is staring back. An honest reappraisal is imperative now! Syria fires on Israel, Israel fires back and Iran looms like the grey robed man with a scythe. War in the Middle East is an outlier no longer.
 
Greece has risen from its recent obscurity, a Phoenix from the fire but, unlike the mythological bird re-born, this Greece is covered in fire, soot and dirt and Hercules himself could not make their debt sustainable.  The IMF may not fund and Europe promises, promises, promises and delivers nothing, no one wants to take any losses when losses must be taken and so Greece has become a dead man walking. Greece promises, Europe promises, platitudes are delivered like meat on a platter at a steakhouse and the silver cover is swept away and, low and behold, there is nothing there. Debt extensions, the lowering of interest rates, the buy-back of Greek debt in the open market and all of the other slivers of even more promises will not solve the problem, cannot solve the problem as the numbers have overtaken any relatively painless solutions. The figures will not add up without debt forgiveness, significantly more money or default. “Where’s the beef” is soon to be found or not found in the European Parliaments as the IMF rejects any new methodology for counting the coins in the vault. Breakpoint; we are at Breakpoint.
 
The United States is staring into a fiscal abyss affecting 4.52% of our GDP and the priorities of the Republicans and the Democrats are as opposite as they have been in my lifetime. Perhaps there will be a compromise but maybe not and the risks enlarge with the passing of the days. Forget gloom, doom, optimism or muddle; the reality is that huge, giant risks are at hand and that you have no control over them and that in the Middle East, in Europe, in America that things could swing wildly out of control and that we do not face one cliff but jagged edges on three sides where Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece could cause an avalanche while another may occur in the United States and a third could come rolling out of the sands of the desert countries.
 
“Get ready, skanks! It’s time for the truth train!”
 
                      -The Simpsons
 
I am not talking of betting this morning but of preservation and, in my humble opinion, only a fool would fail to see the risks at hand and take precautions. We are in danger, “clear and present danger” and the strategy of the “day before” is no longer appropriate. I can also tell you that the scent of Fear is picking up as the calls to the Wizard increase and as many institutions begin to assume “fall back positions” that are not only reasonable but mandated out of necessity by our present circumstances. Take note, $400 billion has poured into bond funds this year, an all-time record, with yields at depressed levels indicating a quite real flight to safety. The United States lost thirty-six percent of its wealth during the American Financial Crisis and, people or institutions, the song rolls across the landscape, “We won’t get fooled again!”
 
Don’t get fooled again!
 
“Soon enough, soon enough; a string of tomorrows that will be the most critical days of the year.”
 
                              -The Wizard
 

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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:25 | 2975635 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We'll be fighting in the streets

With our children at our feet

And the morals that they worship

Will be gone

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:27 | 2975644 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We won't be fooled again.....but you can bet they will.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:29 | 2975650 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"The United States lost thirty-six percent of its wealth during the American Financial Crisis"

This time they will be fooled into losing more than 36%.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:41 | 2975685 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I have never been so comfortable with a huge (55%) position in gold.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:59 | 2975747 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

I am 100% in Gold Bullion and wouldnt change it for the world.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:30 | 2976085 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

silver

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:08 | 2975774 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

About the same here.Balance in various currency's in the bank of mattress.

I'm sleeping real well as a result.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:11 | 2975786 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

There's a new kid in town, real tough cuss.  Goes by the name of Silver....

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:31 | 2975835 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

It's not the day before that worries me. It's the Day After that I'm scared of.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:06 | 2978047 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Its not one's precious metals position that one should wonder about. Its the actions of the criminals in charge that gives one pause. What will they do ?  Confiscate, ban, excess profits tax at 99% ? Who knows ?  Unfortunately, there are no other alternatives. The paper fiat instruments are a sham. The precious metals are the only alternative.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:32 | 2975662 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

Great post! Sad, but true.  This is the problem with America... Americans.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:37 | 2975673 adr
adr's picture

The problem with America is not Americans. The problem is people that came to America and those born who wish to live here but not become Americans.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:51 | 2975722 madcows
madcows's picture

Really, it's the immigrants fault?  Not the corrupt, irresponsible, selfish, power hungry politicians that gave away the keys for a few votes?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:48 | 2976141 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

In fairness, the election was close enough that the illegal vote very well could have swayed the final outcome.  Theres a whole separate debate about whether this would make a difference at the end of the day but we'll never know for sure now.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:58 | 2975744 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Who gave you that scapegoat? You are being fed that BS as a distraction. Don't be their pawn.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:58 | 2978025 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

I'm sure many of you have experienced . . . family, friends, and acquaintances - - that you've repeately warned.  Only to receive a blank look of incomprehension and denial, and the subject quickly changed to that which they find 'more comfortable'.

If they thought about it at all (unlikely) - their response would be "day before what ?"

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:37 | 2975670 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

They try not to get fooled again by buying into a bond bubble that is 100% assured to pop. LOL You can't fix stupid.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:05 | 2975760 RSloane
RSloane's picture

You're right, stupid will not fix stupid, it will only behave more stupidly. All we can do is prepare for stupid to be in a chronic state of 'unexpected' or 'surprised'.

+1 for you, Sir.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:17 | 2975806 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Yeah. "The United States lost thirty-six percent of its wealth during the American Financial Crisis ..." Wasn't a lot of the "wealth" lost, bubble wealth? In other words, not wealth at all but falsely inflated prices? I have a tree in my yard, just because I say it is worth 10 billion dollars, doesn't make it a money tree.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:10 | 2975780 aerojet
aerojet's picture

And the parting on the left, is now the parting on the right...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:39 | 2975683 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

EEYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Meet the new boss

Same as the old boss

 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:43 | 2975690 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Keep the change.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:41 | 2975686 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Our kids will be fighting us, blaming us for all the missery we've created.

There's nothing left for them.

They'll never have pensions, even I don't think I'll get one.

They'll never have a "great job" of bright prospects.

They'll never build that bigger house than their parents.

They'll never look back at the way their parents lived and wonder how they did it, living with lesser luxery's. No, they'll remember the luxery of their parents and look at the dumps they live in.

 

There are 3 kinds of worlds:

1. First world: capitalisme

2. Second world: communisme

3. Third world: no real structure

Guess in what world our kids will live when the shit really explodes...

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:07 | 2976208 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

They'll still call the result 'the first world' - we'll be better off than most of the world.  

Perspective's a bitch.

 

Im just hoping this shit explodes sooner rather than later.  If we can get it wrapped up in a decade or two I'll still be in my 30's. Plenty of life left to enjoy the rebuild.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:13 | 2977519 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Although you've got a decent point, I don't understand the negativity.

"The luxury" of the recent past has been a well-paid job surrounded by people who you don't much like doing work that holds very little personal fulfillment.

Building your own clapboard shack and hand-fishing for eels is at least an honest day's work for which every iota of effort you put into it is rewarded DIRECTLY.

A warm house, a loving family, and enough to eat are surely orders of magnitude more important than a fast imported car and a big bag of coke and a trophy mistress.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:39 | 2978171 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

IMO what is of concern isnt the size of the houses the next generation can indebt themselves for . . . but the level of Freedom they will inherit.

Too many prior generations of Americans have allowed their freedoms to be taken for granted, and then taken away.  Just look at the passive resignation (if any thought of it is given at all) to having cameras watching them at intersections across America, for example.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:24 | 2975638 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I actually seem to be living in tomorrow.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:25 | 2975642 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

So what you're saying is the VIX will be down 10% today?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:37 | 2975671 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

No...soon the VIX will be irrelevant. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:03 | 2975982 Practical Irrat...
Practical Irrationality's picture

Soon or already?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:25 | 2975643 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Fiddle dee dee ...

At this point in time, the banking tards would have to give up control of the markets in order for it to fall. Price is simply computer controlled these days. Or, they would have to execute the market collapse themselves.... possible, but not likley. That would give up a lot of power.

It is hard imagining what the catalytic event would be to undermine banking control of market "price" (since it is certainly not value) 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:31 | 2975654 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Me thinks a domino of some sort...just a tiny rectangular block of wood...strategically positioned.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:51 | 2975719 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Japan and China got their fill of treasury bonds and the federal reserve will too. They have mortgage backed securities and Europe to buy too. Interest rates will be the end game and foreign countries will get the ball rolling, especially China. Bye bye stock market, then.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:05 | 2975762 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

And nobody will have see it coming. And far too much importance will be given to the single event. Setting up the elaborate domino display was the real work. Anything at all could start the whole thing tumbling. But people demand answers and are easily satisfied when authority gives it to them. It will be so again.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:27 | 2975645 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

ask former GM bond holders about bonds

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:27 | 2975646 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"We are in danger"

About all there is to say dont you think?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:43 | 2975691 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

More danger than we know,  how can someone find the time to type 20,000 pages of emails and still protect us from our enemies, who hate our freedoms?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9674163/Gen-John-Allen-investigated-for-inappropriate-communications-to-Jill-Kelley.html

Gen John Allen investigated for 'inappropriate communications' to Jill Kelley The US commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen, is under investigation for "inappropriate" emails to Jill Kelley, the woman linked to the sex scandal involving former CIA director David Petraeus, it has emerged.

The US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the FBI had uncovered between 20,000 and 30,000 pages of correspondence between Gen Allen and Mrs Kelley

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:48 | 2975710 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Probably had some help......just sayin.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:32 | 2975837 Matt
Matt's picture

mismatched pairs. That's what happens when two couples are close, and you find that there is a high attractiveness differential between partners. Holly and Scott look like they are in the same league, same as David and Jill. They should just swap wives, they'd all be happier for it.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:19 | 2975973 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Dapper Dan

You are joking, right?

The “enemies” who actually threaten our freedoms, and are in the process of taking more and more freedoms away are NOT the ones the Pentagon is engaged in “protecting“ us from.

...In fact, the privileged upper Pentagon brass is fully on board with a secretive, autocratic, and self-serving form of governance. They are obliged to be, else they are not promoted, or are relieved of duty, or miss out on a lucrative consulting job with some weapons corporation.

Are you not aware that the most important function of the top generals is to promote arms sales at home and abroad?

Other than that, their principal “job” if you call it that, is primarily to pin motivational medals and propagandize how all our “security” hinges on invading other countries, controlling foreign resources, and suppressing ‘agitators’ at home and abroad.

Historically, a huge standing army and a militarized Homeland police have always existed in opposition to economic and political freedom, and the USA is not a case where “it’s different this time”.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:29 | 2975649 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let me guess Mark....but treasuries right? FU

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:30 | 2975652 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Then there's the decade before the day that's before the day when something rumored might happen.  For example, September 9, 1752.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:31 | 2975655 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Great depression 2.0 or hyperinflation. What say you?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:38 | 2975679 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Why choose when you can have both!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:31 | 2975656 gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

Um, not to nitpick...but WW2 started well before December 7, 1941...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:56 | 2975735 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

And it's fairly well established that sometime around 400 AD the Christian church moved the birth of Christ to December 25th so as to coincide with pagan rituals celebrating the winter solstice.  Ironic that Christmas actually started with a marketing program put together by the church.

Mark obviously doesn't watch the Big Bang Theory....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6nFCc9-iqE

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:57 | 2975740 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah, you're right... It started on December 23rd, 1913...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2976895 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Was that when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor the first time?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:31 | 2975834 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

... and the October 1929 equity market crash DID NOT start the Great Depression.  Markets & economies were shaky but it was the 1931 bank runs that started the Great Depression (doubt this?: it is all there in actual economic data ... USA unemployment did not accelerate until late 1931/1932 .... there is so much 'bad', ideologically driven or corrupt 'history' no one in retrospect can see clearly what happened anymore .... like a comic book analysis of major events).

Many argue it the fatal bank runs)  began in Europe (bank runs which were tied to gold/currency redemptions starting with Creditanstaldt then ended up eventually in New York in late Falll 1931)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:41 | 2975885 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

example of suspect/bad history:   ask yourself ....... how did the USA which was then overseeing the security of nascent post-WW2 Japan, So Korea, Taiwan-post-1949 chinese civil war end ...... not once but twice ... get completely surprised by huge/major army positionings in less than 12 months in 1950 Korea?  Such that the then most powerful western fighting force, the 1st Marine Division was almost totally annihilated after Walker's 8th Army collapsed on the western Korean coast ...... 

You want an implication of what this could have represented if the Marines had not been successful in their admirable escape ....think von Paulus' 5th Army at Stalingrad.

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