• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Remember When A Fed Permadove Promising Perpa-ZIRP Sent Stocks Higher?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There was a time when bears looked on with dread as a Fed Permadove and vice chair Janet Yellen cleared her throat in advance of delivering prepared remarks, knowing well the algos would go full liftathon retard as soon as the flashing red highlights hit the screen. Well, Yellen did just that in a speech titled "Revolution and Evolution in Central Bank Communications" (link here). Some of the highlights:

  • YELLEN SAYS FED SHOULD LINK LOW-RATE OUTLOOK TO ECONOMIC GOALS
  • YELLEN FAVORS ELIMINATING CALENDAR-DATE COMMITMENT TO EASING
  • YELLEN WOULD LINK STIMULUS EXIT TO INFLATION, JOBS THRESHOLDS
  • YELLEN SAYS 2% INFLATION SHOULDN'T BE CONSIDERED A CEILING
  • YELLEN SAYS OPTIMAL POLICY FOR BALANCED APPROACH INVOLVES KEEPING ZIRP UNTIL EARLY 2016

And... nothing. In fact, worse than nothing - selloff! We have now gotten to a point where the Fed implicitly promising it may keep ZIRP until even longer than previously promised, or 2016, results in a coordinated dump.

The empty chatterbox pundits out there may say to "not fight the Fed", and the irony is that they may be right: after all why should anyone fight the Fed, when the Fed is doing a great enough job of fighting itself, for one simple reason: when you promise eternity, you can't top it (as we warned the day QEternity was announced).

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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:49 | 2977399 Jason T
Jason T's picture

QE3 infinity was the ultimate credability fail.  They shot their entire load and nothing happened.

 

long gold and short the S&P 500.

 

also long burning wood for heat.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2977410 CPL
CPL's picture

Pumps in my area of Ontario are up 13 cents in two hours on the happy news.

 

New normal, carry on.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:57 | 2977447 redpill
redpill's picture

Half-life of 5 minutes, sweet.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:58 | 2977450 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Are the sheeple finally waking up, realizing the Bernank can't unwind this beast?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:02 | 2977477 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

The majority of sheeple couldn't tell a bernanke from a bukakke.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:10 | 2977516 akak
akak's picture

Oh, there's a difference?

 

(Well, to be honest, the bukkake recipient does not actually get fucked.)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:17 | 2977528 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Ive been coming here for a long time and i missed the boat on who this yellen person is... This sheep needs some help

 

N/M found out shes the bernakes bitch.

 

Thanks goog

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:46 | 2977549 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This is the perfect time for an equity market decline of significant proportions.

Obama said "now might be a good time to buy some stocks" back in 2009, while he was just beginning to think about re-election, and needed to start building the illusion of a recovery and rebounding prosperity (even though it was phantom balance sheet rebuilding, vacuous and inclined to implode more quickly than it was rebuilt, as all bubbles are wont to do, along with massive deficit expansion to catch the incredible numbers of persons who would soon fall into the SNAP/EBT/SSI/etc safety net, and keep the ugly soup lines seen in 1933 out of sight and out of mind).

The Bernank & Timmmay (aka President's Working Group on Financial Markets; aka The PPT) got really busy filling the vacuum that was the reluctance of free market participants to take on the inherent risk present in the equity "markets" by indirectly backstopping such risks (see QE via POMO, TARP, TALF, Maiden Lane I through XXXVIII, mark-to-unicorn standards, relaxation of other financial restrictions, TBTF being ingrained as "state" policy, etc.).

Now, Obama's re-election is locked up, warning bells have been loudly rung about everything from the "fiscal cliff" to proclamations of equity valuations being rich (when they're actually silly, as in silly dot.com 2.0), and so if there's a big liquidation event that tanks equity markets, everyone would say "clearly anyone who was holding equities at those levels was ignoring massive risk, loud warnings, and they were being greedy/stupid/etc" because "everyone could've seen that coming" (the antithesis to "no one could've seen that coming").

Every dynamic that was put into place back in late 2009 and early 2010, to claim the equity "water is fine, so c'mon in!" is now the diametric opposite.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:56 | 2977691 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

+1

Assume the position 'Murika...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:16 | 2977720 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

But what I really meant is that Janet Yellen is all "blah blah blah," and the grotesque afterbirth of what's widely recognized to be the freak of Bernank'd, broken markets, as real market forces now re-emerge to drink the Fed's milkshake.

 

Markets Drink Your Milkshake, Janet Yellen! You're Just The Afterbirth
Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:31 | 2977787 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We had QE throughout the duration of WW 2. Probably long after actually (the brutal downsizing after WW 2 caused a NASTY recession.) I grant you there were wage and price controls then...which we do no have now. We COULD have wage and price controls now however. My guess...no, my CERTAINTY as to why that is is that the Fed wants inflation "to pay for everything." that says to me buy index funds (no one can factor in inflation risk as an individual investor) and avoid all debt and debt markets. Sure...Treasuries have surged...but as has been said here many times "one day the Fed will have a failed auction." and then you will see the massive amounts of PRICING POWER that has been created...and an affordability index" to tell the Government types "everything is going just fine."

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:39 | 2977972 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

One could buy index funds, toss a coin into the air, piss against the wind, or play Russian roulette, with equal chances of success or failure in what are deeply dysfunctional, very much broken, Bernank'd markets.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:51 | 2977831 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Some say she's in line to take over from the Bernank.

MOAR Milkshakes...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:29 | 2977782 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

A lot of people think that bukkake originated with the Japanese, Not so! It is actually a ritual practiced at FED meetings with Janet Yellen as the recipient.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2977400 Racer
Racer's picture

Yeah, and whatever happened to stable prices mandate?

 

Welcome to Japan 2 and the Greater Depression

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:54 | 2977418 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Brilliant move on their part - to reframe the mandate for stable prices into a mandate for a stable rate of increase in prices.

Fuck them. Fuck them all.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:07 | 2977719 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It's like the Titanic going down and the Captain telling the passengers "nevermind the lifeboats, everything is fine and we'll be in port shortly".

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:43 | 2978184 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Janet Yellen wants to do nominal-income-growth targeting (aka "failed tragically everytime it was implemented in part or full in the past, but this time will be different"), UBS' Larry Hatheway writes an essay on how 1000% inflation rate could theoretically be well tolerated (a deviation on his past essays on how small caliber firearms and canned spam are good investments), and Texas is on the verge of actually submitting a petition to secede from the U.S. (a legally valid one that would manadate a formal response from the Obama Administration/D.C.).

In other words, just another day in the life of The Bernank'd markets.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:50 | 2977403 madcows
madcows's picture

If it is based on the government's calculations, then we are in real trouble.  Nothing better than tying monetary policay to imaginary numbers.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:50 | 2977404 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck yeah!!

 

suck Austrian dick Yellen, you bitch!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:09 | 2977512 redpill
redpill's picture

i'm kaaamminngg day and night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZqfUzax3kE

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:22 | 2977562 max2205
max2205's picture

You know she's banging some 4 star general

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:35 | 2977801 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought that was the reporter Yellen. And besides if we're talking stars here "he's banging her." get your story straight mister

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:51 | 2977407 ACP
ACP's picture

Come, I know these are the REAL headlines:

  • YELLEN SAYS FED SHOULD LINK LOW-RATE OUTLOOK TO 500 PTS/YR IN S&P
  • YELLEN FAVORS ELIMINATING CALENDAR-DATE COMMITMENT TO EVENTUALLY STOP EASING
  • YELLEN WOULD UN-LINK STIMULUS EXIT TO INFLATION, JOBS THRESHOLDS
  • YELLEN SAYS 20% INFLATION SHOULDN'T BE CONSIDERED A CEILING
  • YELLEN SAYS OPTIMAL POLICY FOR BALANCED APPROACH INVOLVES KEEPING ZIRP UNTIL EARLY 3016
Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:54 | 2977424 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

"That's not a joke."

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:48 | 2977670 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The bad news is the computer algorithms reading the headlines weight Greece on the verge of default rather a lot higher than some bitch at the Fed spewing meaningless shit.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 01:54 | 2978930 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

@ACP

In all seriousness, she might as well have said all those things you listed. Really, what's the practical difference given that she's insane.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:52 | 2977413 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Has the FBI checked Yellen's emails?

I thought the USA just had an election with mandates and stuff.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:58 | 2977417 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Dennis Lockhart, the ass-crack < of Bernanke...

  Remember this article? Fed: Let's Twist again like we did last summer? - Economy

 Yes,Yellen is yelling.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:53 | 2977420 5880
5880's picture

QE forevah,

no more anticipation rallies

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:54 | 2977421 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

3X short S&P 500 through SPXU.........see yoo when it's $150/share.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:53 | 2977422 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I can see how stocks could stay flatlined but gold should start leaving everyone in the dust soon.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:54 | 2977423 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

FUCK YOU YELLEN!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:01 | 2977466 TheInfoman
TheInfoman's picture

Tell me how you really feel....

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:55 | 2977430 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Revolution in "nuance". Sounds oxymoronic.

Just like (dead)Woodford at Columbia, monetarists don't need economics degrees these days but, rather, psychology degree as it is all about tricking investors and consumers into self destructive behavior.

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:56 | 2977432 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Oh Kevin Henry have they given you carpel tunnel syndrome yet my boy?

Looks like you can't hold SPY above $138.00?

Youv'e lost it man!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:07 | 2977504 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

the Kevster, along with the BOJ and primary stealers put up a gallant fight but reality "raked their eyes and body slammed em" just before the bell

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:27 | 2977590 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

I think the primary Stealers are going to go against the 'nanke and start shorting the spectrum of the S&P 500.

They will demand total war!......with somebody?...........The Army is to busy getting their Viagra & Testosterone 'scripts filled and sexting to plan Cheney's "next war".

What the fuck are we going to do now?

I think this might be Obama stroke of genius to hamstring the military, so bably, as to make a new conflict undoable.

The Generals will be tied up in Congressional hearings for the next four years while Obama builds some mother fuckin' infrastructure bitchz!

Genius!!!!!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:57 | 2977695 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You would not appear to understand conflict spectrum.

If you defund conventional forces and a conflict erupts and presents the president with a need to respond, he has nothing left but nuclear weapons with which to respond.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 11:04 | 2979669 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

You fail to conprehend the military uses 50% of all the oil consumed in the world!!!!

Just parking the AF jets will save billions every day without the first cut.

You don't get it!

Peace dividend will be a result of the generalhornygate scandal.

Who can make war when they are lawyering up?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:55 | 2977433 israhole
israhole's picture

Pffffffft.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:01 | 2977434 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Damn! Those Keynseians don't give up easy!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:03 | 2977711 venturen
venturen's picture

You can always redig the hole you just filled in.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:55 | 2977436 Madcow
Madcow's picture

All they can do at this point is try and trick people into believing in the future - and hope there are a few more fools out there with money to invest. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:53 | 2977683 hapless
hapless's picture

channelling P.T. Barnum...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:55 | 2977438 khakuda
khakuda's picture

She and the rest should be fired for their mismanagement of the economy.  David Einhorn eloquently made the case against ZIRP and Japan has provided the ultimate test case of its failure.

Yet, like any soon to be unemployed trader, they keep doubling down.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:27 | 2977569 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

With higher interest rates the fixed incomers might actually be buying more. Certainly no one can borrow more and Corps have their own cash to use and no motivation (projected growth) to borrow. But Ben's gotta keep those 401k's up there or the Repugs are back like a bad penny.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:20 | 2977761 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The ZIRP benefits the banks not the citizens.  The Central bank has always facilitated the banks sucking off the taxpayer tit ever since its inception, nearly 100 years and counting. Welfare recipients are raw novices compared to central bankers.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:15 | 2977895 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The Benanke premise that money that is essentialy "free" will be grabbed by all and spur investment is ass backward. Money must have a value placed upon it for it to be worthwhile. With ZIRP there is no incentive for the "producers" to use it because anything that is made is lost to inflation and/or profits can't return value when reinvested.

Banks produce nothing of any use - they are margin takers and the removal of margins from deposited money means less is left for the real producers. Benanke is producing deflation not fighting it. He has the brains of a smashed Crab

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:56 | 2977441 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

she ain't no greenspan, that's for sure.

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