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On The Sheer Bullishness Of An Open US Market

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It would appear, given today's remarkable moves across every risk-asset in Europe and the US, that all that is required to fix Europe's broken transmission channels and undercapitalized banks and to "remediate" the US fiscal cliff is that the US equity market be open... It seems our earlier tweet was spot on!

And of course this one before it...

Whether is it is EURUSD, Spanish bond spreads, US equities, Commodities, or Treasury yields; the US equity open apparently is all that is needed to bring back insanity... (notice the FX and Treasury markets are not as enthusiastic as stocks and spanish bonds)

 

 

The machine-like stop-runs across each of these markets hints at the unsustainability... but it is stocks that have (once again) gone that extra mile of incredulity relative to the rest of risk...

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

All news is bullish all the time. 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wall St is having a Pollyanna Party, and we weren't invited.

News, analysis, fundamentals, and technicals, are all irrelevant now. We have PRINTED prosperity!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It would appear that mighty Casey has struck out, and the Naz just rolled over.

That Wall Street is the casino with by far the worst odds and most rigged nature is the majority consensus is a huge red flag, bitchez.

In every significant crash since 2000, Nasdaq leads the most painful bleeds.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Interesting perspective. Thanks for the Nasdaq tip!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

To Zimbabwe, and beyond!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Indeed, Rod Serling suggested that the "Mighty Casey" was itself a robot, so do not expect the index to remain depressed for long; these SkyNet entities -- both machine and algorithmic -- are allied in all their efforts.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This is the perfect time for an equity market decline of significant proportions.

Obama said "now might be a good time to buy some stocks" back in 2009, while he was just beginning to think about re-election, and needed to start building the illusion of a recovery and rebounding prosperity (even though it was phantom balance sheet rebuidling, vacuous and inclined to implode more quickly than it was rebuilt, as all bubbles are wont to do).

The Bernank & Timmmay (aka President's Working Group on Financial Markets; aka The PPT) got really busy filling the vacuum that was the reluctance of free market participants to take on the inherent risk present in the equity "markets" by indirectly backstopping such risks (see QE via POMO, TARP, TALF, Maiden Lane I through XXXVIII, mark-to-unicorn standards, relaxation of other financial restrictions, TBTF being ingrained as "state" policy, etc.).

Now, Obama's re-election is locked up, warning bells have been loudly rung about everything from the "fiscal cliff" to proclamations of equity valuations being rich (when they're actually silly, as in silly dot.com 2.0), and so if there's a big liquidation event that tanks equity markets, everyone would say "clearly anyone who was holding equities at those levels was ignoring massive risk, loud warnings, and they were being greedy/stupid/etc" because "everyone could've seen that coming" (the antithesis to "no one could've seen that coming).

Every dynamic that was put into place back in late 2009 and early 2010, to claim the equity "water is fine, so c'mon in!" is now the diametric opposite.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Excellent, Ill take 3 then please.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

that's a perfect tagline for a cnbs/reuters/ap promo

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

CNBS - Your 24/7 Fiscal Cliff Station

When is the saturation point reached? Tired of this shit (and just about everything else).

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Someone went apeshit buying Spanish bonds when US markets opened. (NY Fed? Bernanke? Geithner?)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I'm about to go apeshit on inverse ETF's.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

They are already rollin' out the Bernank this week for QEI+ hopium.  And everybody here feels comfortable shorting?   

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

This doesn't feel like short covering. Plenty of pain yet to come IMO. Waiting until this rally tires out though.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I give QEI plus hopium about a half hour rally.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Could someone please point me to the news that instigated a 200-point Dow rally from the overnight lows?
Did Bernanke turn on the money-printing spigot full force or something?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Google trading at $666......

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

I suggest you buy now, with both hands, doctor. Enjoy the ride.

Damien Thorn, CFA

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

This is why I bought stocks when everyone was saying to sell. I should be able to retire by March. Already have my canal home lined up in Venice Beach, CA for $23,000/month.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah but does your friends mom make $85 an hour on the computer?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Have you begun interveiwing your security team yet?  Might want to get on that.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

The state of California is pleased to hear of their increased tax revenue.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

This fucking sucks

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Bull

ish

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This too shall pass.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Green is the new Red.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

<Moved>

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

and then there is the propaganda dribble that comes out of such esteemed media establishments such as the mayor of nyc's company:

  Pimco-to-DWS See Economy Escaping Cliff as Stocks Fall

"The world’s biggest investors say the rout that erased $1 trillion from the value of global equities after President Barack Obama was re-elected overlooks the fact that the world economy is improving while U.S. leaders start discussions that may avoid the so-called fiscal cliff."   As if the $triilions in combined spending cuts and tax revenue required to address the cliff wouldn't put a dent in economic growth. "it's all bullshit and it's bad for you" -- George Carlin
Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh noes!!11!1 He's gonna spoil all of the fun to be had with a fake fiscal cliff "fight."

I mean, is there anyone who doesn't think the solution will be CTRL-P?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Is this the Black Friday pump job?  Must.have.happy.sheep.for.day.after.Thanksgiving.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

We are beyond the phase of control.

This is simply FORCED BUYING by Primary Dealers, everybody else is selling: Mutual funds, hedge funds, retail etc.

 

One or two Primary Dealers are going to be Lehmaned or MFGd.

There is no other option. Nature always has her way.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Someone went apeshit buying Spanish bonds when US markets opened. (NY Fed? Bernanke? Geithner?)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Find out which primary dealer did that and you may know which primary dealer is going to collapse.

 

That's how MFG went dust, being FORCED to buy italian bonds.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The primary dealer was Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Joseph A. LaVorgna was buying Spanish bonds to imitate his role model Dick Prick Bove buying AAPL.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_current.html

 

Hm. So far it's been only US based primary dealers collapsing, Bear stearns, Lehman, MFG.

 

I guess it's time for a non US based primary dealer to evaporate.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

corzine

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

The day's not over yet...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Flat for the day, then dump toward zero or negative at 3pm-ish.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

open markets in which indices move up along straight linear support lines, and close ...at the highs of the day.... then start sliding back as soon as market closes

i guess someone is in need of cheap puts or inverse ETF's and giving markets "a hand"

another forged OpEx in the making?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yet again we "feel the urge" punch the Tylers Durden smack in the face for their "for every uptick there is a downtick" rule. Shall we take umbrage at the violation? Perhaps we should feel aghast? Are we not abreast? Can we not retreat? (For we are replete with utter bullshit here.) let Ilene go long her Apple...she is paying a dividend (which eats into her capital base and makes it damn near impossible to compete in the cell phone space) I say "stay long the Staid" as this Artifice Ridiculli implodes yet again here.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

That rule is no longer applicable.

The conditions have changed; something similar to condition changes from Newton's physics to Einstein's physics.

That rule was Newton's physics, you know: apple, gravity stuff like that.

 

This new condition is Einstein's and operates out of gravity; when (not if) it drops to earth it creates a crater.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The Fed is printing trillions and buying bonds and MBS.  Why will the Fed not buy US equities to support them?  Why does anyone except US equities to fall when it is backed by the full faith and farce of the Fed's confetti?

Never short a farcical market

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ZH must be the biggest "Fight the Fed" site on the web.  

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

This is not fair. I demand QE for everyone. We want to party. We want to party. We want to party now.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Sorry, you are not a bankster with connections to Bernanke.  Nor do you have the money or connections to hire Greenspan like Bill Gross can.

You will have to toil your way to your income.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Fake rally has no legs

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Must... Not ... Let... ES close below 1379.34. (200day avg). What a complete and utter joke these markets are!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

There's no other option. It's forced buying...until the weakest link collapses.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Bank Of America CEO already states we are fucked.

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/2012/11/13/bofa-chief-fiscal...

 

Dow Jones up 33 points.   Yes, by golly, we are totally fucked.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Faber talks tough...

Marc Faber: Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49802535

excerpt:

Faber told CNBC that central bank stimulus was useless and the implosion of markets was the only way to restructure the financial system.

“I think the whole global financial system will have to be reset and it won’t be reset by central bankers but by imploding markets — either the currency markets, debt market or stock markets,” he said. “It will happen — it will happen one day and then we’ll be lucky if we still have 50 percent of the asset values that we have today.”

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment venturen
venturen's picture

To Infinity and BEYOND!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

On another bullish note i've noticed many spec homes being built in the fairfield county erea, housing boom or will they sit for years?

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