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The Strange (and Worrisome) Symmetry Of Bernanke's Bull Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Sometimes a picture paints a thousand words. In the case of this chart, it paints an expectation of around 300 S&P points (to the downside). The strange symmetrical exponentiality of the last four years can only be marveled at in its reflection of greed and fear catalyzed by the machinations of an increasingly impotent central banking cartel. Trade accordingly.

 

 

The irony of the coincident timing of the plunge and the pending fiscal cliff decision - which as we noted here, will not be solved until the market pushes the politicians to 'compromise' - should not be lost on those who poo-poo such silly chartist ramifications...

 

(h/t Ivan The Terrible @SqueezedEquity)

 

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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:30 | 2975833 fuu
fuu's picture

...and there goes gold...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:31 | 2975836 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

No preblem.....got the printer running again.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:54 | 2975954 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the 808 spread is an 808 spread until it's not. history has never been exposed to this kind of grand-scale meddling more at financial straight-up mendacity. trade accordingly.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:36 | 2975858 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

There goes the neighborhood.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:43 | 2975895 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Looks like the first 3 notes to "Heart & Soul"... Boy I can wait until we get to "Chopsticks"...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:45 | 2975907 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Clear chartporn

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:46 | 2975912 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Take a closer look at the expectorant nature of the chart...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:46 | 2975915 fourchan
fourchan's picture

thud.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:33 | 2975842 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

meanwhile, yet another normal day of fraud is under way n the Silver market.....

 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:38 | 2975856 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Can almost set your clock by it.

 

I'll take the subsidized metals.....it's the only government program I qualify for.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:47 | 2975921 fourchan
fourchan's picture

can i use an ebc card to buy silver and gold?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:28 | 2976071 flattrader
flattrader's picture

It appears to be a 15-16 mo. interval?

Significance?

Someone mentioned an overlay of Bernanke's machinations.

I've seen a chart like that somewhere.

Link anybody?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:38 | 2978687 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I had put the 280 day ROC to it before. It's not actually a steady time period, as pointed out by a similar Tyler post showing a fibonacci ratio for the time span itself. Still, it's reasonably close for a while, multi-year.

Set for 280, 290, 300 days ROC and watch the trend get linearized:

http://scharts.co/X5WxBl : this one is 280 day ROC

http://flic.kr/p/cXAU7y this is 280 day ROC looking back to 2002

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:20 | 2979146 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Thnkx...Interesting...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:58 | 2975968 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Im totally fine with this manipulation.  It means physical remains on sale.  Someday soon, it might be cheap on paper, but you won't be able to find any.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:39 | 2975873 adr
adr's picture

Market down, Nat Gas up 3% again.

Are we getting to the point where a forecast of snow in the future will cause algos to ramp nat gas 5% daily?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:09 | 2976229 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

More rigs doing oil than NG.  Less NG in the future to supply more demand from conversions.  Usually oil prices about 10-15 times NG.  That ratio is over 20 now.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:40 | 2975877 devo
devo's picture

Somewhat off topic, but man is HD setting up to be a nice short.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:14 | 2976015 HD
HD's picture

I resent that.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:41 | 2975878 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Wait till 10:30 (as usual..)

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:41 | 2975882 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Go Kevin Henry, go!!!

Rah, Rah, Sicomba!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:41 | 2975887 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Impotent Central Bankers...redundant statement

..need.more.financial.viagra.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:46 | 2975902 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

I'm sure Petraeus has some extra viagra he can give ya'!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:43 | 2975896 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Please crash.  I am getting too old for this shit. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:48 | 2975925 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

On a long enough timeline...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:53 | 2975949 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

quit messin' with us....that's a graph of the Nikkei

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:43 | 2975897 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

And even though this is somewaht consistent with GS Kostin's more recent estimate (or vice versa - I mean how many adjustments does one get to be close - geesh)

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2013-sp-500-target-2012-10

he can't help but want to ride the bull to a 1575 end of 2013 opening guess.

 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:43 | 2975898 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

....

FUCK IT!! BEST OUT OF 4!!

                  quote: Bernanke

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:44 | 2975899 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Rollover bitchez!   Good movie too.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:46 | 2975908 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

If I'm not mistaken, the above-depicted chart implies a certain bottom somewhere along the way.

So it must be bullish.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:46 | 2975911 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Bet that chart looks significantly more depressing when using inflation adjusted dollars.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:47 | 2975918 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Gravity's a bitch.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:49 | 2975927 fourchan
fourchan's picture

a chart only a computer could love.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:51 | 2975936 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whole thing just a puffed up marshallow.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:51 | 2975940 yogibear
yogibear's picture

As long as the US keeps piling on $3 trillion debt a year in spending it can make up for the debt saturated consumer.

Keeping it up and the US is Japan-like. More food stamps, section 8's, free cell phones, free education for illegals, health care and welfare.

 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:08 | 2975990 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

What could possibly go wrong with developing a permanent and growing underclass with no skills and no hope of upward mobility?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:18 | 2976033 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Change "no skills" to "no certifications" or "no licenses" or "no titles."

Refeudalization.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:02 | 2976489 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Refeudalization.

Well, in olden times, they were called 'cannon fodder'. Today, it's more a question of whether they're to be 'drone delights' or 'nuclear nummies'.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:54 | 2975953 unununium
unununium's picture

I have been drawing that arc since 2009 and convinced myself 3 times that the end was near. A drop always came but not one of the scale implied.

Superimpose QE events for more clarity.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:33 | 2978674 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

worked for me the last 3 years. The trick is you need to put the dates at the bottom and wait till it hits one extreme to bounce the other way. It takes more than a year between them so you can't jump the gun.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:54 | 2975955 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

KH is making a stand defending SPY $138/share.

Let's see how much money they will have to print to defend 138?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:56 | 2975961 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Well that was a big gap fill.  This thing is so rigged

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:10 | 2975993 illyia
illyia's picture

Lovely chart. Lots of pretty correlations.

Thanks, TDs.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:16 | 2976026 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Buy orange, sell green. Lather, rinse, repeat.

It's a wonder that everyone isn't wealthy beyond their wildest dreams by now.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:17 | 2976028 stiler
stiler's picture

money makes the world go round, the world go round, the world go round...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:33 | 2976092 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

this is the same chart as the 2006 2007? this is the upside down parabola, which is a mania market, but at least its honest. this is a market in which companies buy their own stock, the price of the stock goes up, increasing their wealth, so they buy some more. the problem is each time there is a little less, because no one has figured out the perpetual motion machine.

i also experimented with this chart in a gambling situation. from that experience i can tell you that the real danger to losing your bankroll is going outside the bands, either higher or lower. you have to manage the thing perfectly (in this case the fed chief) and of course the thing levels out, you take profits (go back to zero) and start all over again.

in the 2006 2007 market there was a sharp pullback followed by a new stronger rally (violated both upper and lower bands) and of course things crashed

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:42 | 2976117 q99x2
q99x2's picture

When the FED owns all the mortgages and all the stocks and most of the treasuries does that mean they can set the price of everything and that nobody will own anything anymore?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:13 | 2976241 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

When that happens you get to buy into the FED with forced investment.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:01 | 2977707 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

That will be the "Nationalize the FED" movement/moment.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 11:59 | 2976184 abhieshek
abhieshek's picture

@tyler: havent you come up with such post in last 4 years only to see that they dont work??? 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:31 | 2978671 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

it works when I do it.

And I did this one Sep 13th.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:05 | 2976202 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Looks like half of a bridge to nowhere, constructed out of Benny Bucks instead of steel and concrete.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:11 | 2976236 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Don't worry.  There is a toliet paper saftey net.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:16 | 2976264 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

 Man with three buttocks?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:22 | 2976556 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Kinda proves;
The diminishing effectiveness of more debt.
Each time the 'pop' is less pronounced.
What is it at now? Something like $2.56 of new debt to get a $1.00 hit on the GDP?

Insanity: Doing the same thing and expecting a different result each time.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:28 | 2978633 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

yup - I noticed this back in 2009. I posted this recently,

2012 09 13 spy crash soon - http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H goldpricemodel

but back in 2009 I was not so hot with the graphs & spreadsheets so I used a free math site to generate this:

eFunda: dow output pts with dates, input date as YEAR e.g. 2009.3

Due to changes in the site since 2009 it may not render right but it is the top-most curve.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 13:37 | 2976607 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

Doc What do you see?

Bob A bats wing.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 15:16 | 2977007 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

For the worrisome graph to be proven true, it is necessary that a primary bear market be signaled by the Dow theory.

This is precisely what is about to happen. At the current juncture, the stock market is on thin ice and a primary bear market signal may be flashed soon. If this happens, the worrisome chart is very likely to be proven right. However, it is good to remember that the stock market is still in a primary bull market, the secondary reaction notwithstanding. However, it may change soon.

Here you have the vital chart to spot the bear market signal and comments thereto:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-p...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:07 | 2978616 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

no, momentum outplays Dow Theory every time

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:07 | 2978615 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

duuuude

First, Bitchez.

A picture is worth a thousand words... or ... one MEEeeelllion dollerrrrrrs

2012 09 13 spy crash soon - http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H goldpricemodel

Been posting this since I uploaded it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!