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Big Miss In Retail Sales Paints Grim Picture For Holiday Shopping
Here we go with the "but, but, Sandy" excuses. The just announced October retail sales tumbled, with their worst miss of expectations since May 2010, and the first sequential decline since June: printing at -0.3% for both the headline and the 'ex autos and gas', on expectations of a -0.2% and +0.4% rise. Ignoring for a second that the Commerce Department said that Hurricane Sandy had both positive (remember those massive lines in various stores ahead of Sandy) and negative impacts on retail sales, it would be truly inconceivable for the sellside Wall Street consensus of diploma'ed PhDs, which knew about Sandy's impact on retail sales well in advance, and thus could adjust its numbers, to actually, you know, adjust its numbers. Either way there is no way to spin the longer term major store sales trend (last chart), which shows that the US consumer, out of money, out of credit, and out of savings is entering the holiday season with little to zero disposable spending power.
A sequential decline in virtually everything except General Merchandise sales:

Breakdown by category: oops on cars and building materials:
The biggest miss to expectations for core retail sales since 2010:
Finally, the only chart that matters: the long-term trend in true sales. Not pretty:
And in other news, PPI printed a decline of -0.2% - the first drop since May - on expectations of a 0.2% print and up from 1.1%, on sliding energy costs, even as food PPI was up 0.4%.
The evil, evil deflation is once again coming back, which is good: at least what little money US consumers have will have slightly more purchasing power. At least until the Fed starts outright monetizing $85 billion in total securities starting January.
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Can't wait to see the "Electric Winter Tree" in D.C. as we celebrate Kwanza like we always have.
Right after the sacrifices.....we get to open presents that we're going to send to someone else. I can't wait.
A donation will be made in your name to the Human Fund.
Dont forget the ornaments for the Kwanzaa shrub.
http://i.imgur.com/Rg3Ui.jpg
Toy Mfg's are trying to make a comeback:
Trickle Me POMO; a Fed favorite
Barbie’s “Repossed Malibu Condo”
Tonka Toys Ride-on Bulldozer – Detroit Edition
Freeby; formerly Furby; rubbing it’s belly replenishes your EBT card
Apple’s iBamaphone; teleprompter app, automatically blocks calls to Papa Jon’s & Chick-fil-a, iShaniqua voice-changing app for crank calling GOP HQ.
Mr. Bo-tato Head; now with larger ears
Play Dough – Fed Edition; nuff said
Scramble – Benghazi Edition; by the makers of Foreign Policy
Match Box – ‘Real’ Housewives; carpet meet shades
Instead of a lump of coal in your stocking you'll find an Obama phone. But not the one you are accustomed to. No, this will be Obamaphone 2.0: a one-way line from Barry's mouth to your ear.
We're going with 'Festivus' again this year, I'll cream my uncle in the 'Feats of Strength' I'm going to tip over his wheelchair.
And then run him over with your government financed GM truck.
The bernank will give bankers another bonus based upon this news.
they must have thought the mayans were right and blew their load prior?
But, but, after people recover from Sandy, they will release their pent up consumer demand.
Yeah right, you keep telling yourself that. I've been thinking for years now that my wife would release her pent up sexual demand too......
But she has released that sexual demand - just not with you. Think of it as 'black market' sex.
And think of all the broken windows (both literally and metaphorically) that will have to be fixed in NYC.
All of which are good for the economy (unless you look at total levels of debt, of course).
The trend is your friend.
What we gonna do when the money runs out?
The money will never run out....but the Koolaid will taste like colored water.
it seems to have run out already for alot of people
Since when have they mattered?
good point.
That's because they are not indebting themselves enough. Debt=money. Matter of fact, they are selfish. Enemy of the people. Anti-Krughmanites. Racists.
What could be more bullish?!!??
Also, will 2013 follow the same bullshit algo driven pattern as the past three years?
If so BTFD man!!!!
Maybe this year we can go for a 30% January gain. When all the data is bullshit and fundamentals don't matter, who cares.
Santelli sure did not put a sad face on it. I think they finally got his shock collar secured.
It's about time CNBC got control of that pit bull.
Santelli is a good indian who goes off the reservation sometimes.
Bernanke is not printing enough - must keep stocks, bonds, commodities, housing and retail sales levitated.
Tell those Chinese customers to start spending so we can fire up the American sweatshops already.
don't worry about the chinese spending ,,i live here and my wife has never seen prices this low ,, from car's (clearing the channel stuffing) to anything you can not eat ,, restaurant prices are lower and the places are not as bussy ,, however the chinese people are getting heavyer and taller so go long food and farmland
I farm just over 30,000 acres. This is what I have been telling people for 20+ years. Recognized it as soon as the chinese were given special access to our treasury market in the 90's. They look at me like I am insane. Unfortunately, none of this behavior is sustainable.
What's your forecast on when the tax collectors will come after your seed stock?
Please. When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law. The answer will be the same one we all give for our PM stock as in "What seed stock?"
Good nutrition will do that to people.
I guess they will have to build more for-profit, private sector jails.
Thereby providing more "incarceration opportunities" aka slave labour.
Please pay attention. Look at crime and punishment in China, much more efficient in that communist/socialist state. People are put to death (no cost to taxpayer keeping criminals around). This extends to all levels of society. Remind me, how did things turn out for the managment of that company that sold the tainted milk formula again? Please, wake the fuck up.
Hey! Our prison industry is the most profitable in the world!
USA! USA!
Just like every other debtors prison throughout history. Not sustainable.
This is starting to feel like the end of 2008...all over again !:O)
Holiday shopping will ramp up with buy now and no payments til 2013, funny how people will starve to get that I-crack!
Thats really everything in a nutshell isn't it. Buy now and pay later. Just think how well off we all could be if we could buy anything we wanted now, and not have to pay for it for 1000 years.
Which would leave consumers with no money to pay the more expensive food that will be offered all throughout 2013, couple that with declining per capita SNAP benefits and increased SNAP penetration, looks like America might finally on a forced diet next year, now if only the polticiians would do the same...
No worries about food, Urban Redneck, Walmart is on the case:
Wal-Mart launches food subscription service
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/11/14/wal-mart-food-su...
It's reassuring to know that "Walmart Labs" is enabling (or is that "disabling"?) people to buy "ethnic products" from the comfort of their own homes.
We aren't that far from The Matrix, where people will live their entire lives in pods. I give it 100 years.
Try reading the whole article, those are samples of food products that are not yet in stores. Hate them if you like but they are no different than any other big box retailer, try supporting a local vendor instead.
Guns and Ammo are doing fine.....they just said on CNBC that the fiscal cliff will NOT affect Christmas shopping.....so lets see ..your a military contractor and you have your yellow slip in hand...do you go out and buy a bunch of crap....I think not....
Maybe there are a few openings for generals?
Droppin like flies they are.....something about Benghazi and a video.
Yes, sir. Buying the S.O. a G19 for Xmas, to go alongside mine. His & Hers. Yes, it's very cute.
This one?: http://www.logitech.com/en-us/keyboards/keyboards/g19-keyboard-for-gaming
Or this one?: http://us.glock.com/products/model/g19
It's okay. Uncle Bernank can crank out some more Bernank Bucks and save the holiday shopping season... and he can control inflation in 15 minutes if he has to.
100% FUBAR.
Too bad the Bernank Bucks are for bankster use only.
But... but... but... those kind banksters are supposed to lend those Bernank Bucks to Mr. and Mrs. Joe Sixpack at kindly terms to stimulate economic growth so we can grow our way out of debt... and we know Uncle Bernank can curb inflation in 15 minutes if necessary because he said he can...
100% FUBAR.
cue the youtube vid where hitler explains how black friday will save retail sales.
Kevin is going to need a bigger shovel today.
Went to Kohls on the weekend for a super sale where you get like 30 % + off on everything. Looked at pair of running shoes that I was going to buy but was waiting for this sale. They marked them up 30 % for the sale. Left in disgust. But you would have not believed the fucking line up snaking around the store and how much absolute shit people were buying. I thought the store was going to run out of merchandize.
Fuck Kohl's. I went to a Veteran's Day sale to buy some Levi's - buy 1 get one 1/2 price. I picked out my size and went to the counter only to find out that the list price on a pair of Levi's was $58. $58 for a pair of fucking Levi's - not this guy.
I too left in disgust.
Walmart has Wranglers for $9.50 on Black Friday. Can't beat that. Stock up while the dollar is still worth something.
Fuck Walmart. Tax subsidy sucking corporate welfare queen.
When the MSM anchors report the day after Black Friday that sales are booming, watch how much they blink
No worries, Uncle Sam will setup a Federal Agecny to securitize VISA and MASTERCARD debt. That way the FED will be able to monetize it knowing full well that future generations of serfs will be on the hook. After all, we all know how unfair banks are to those who have been deemed credit risks. It is every American's right to have access to consumer credit regardless of their ability to repay.
Hey man its All Good......They fixed it remember.....Green shoots Bitches...Brb going to buy some FaceBook stock......
I'd like to think Americans have searched their empty souls and discovered that more-shit does not equal more-happy. But no, they're just broke. Moar free shit, Hopey! The natives are suffering!
Dont tell me, we have ran out of people who spend money they dont have,
to buy shit they dont need , to impressive people they dont like....Say it aint so
That's the quote of the day in my book....A+
everything's bullish as we roll into opex friday.
fuck ypu bernank.
Everyones credit card is maxed out, including the US Governments. But, who will have the balls to cut up the card-the CHICOMS!!!
Probably most peoples. But I know annecdotally of many people who have cut back and paid off their cards this year and are using a fraction of the credit available to them.
We are cutting way back this year. We have never funded our holiday extravaganzas by charging things, but our celebrations have become almost unrecognizable in their modesty over the past few years, and this year we are really toning things down. We aren't exchanging among adults at all, only giving gifts to the kids. I don't think it is just a matter of money either, because we could get each other some small thing easily enough. It has all just become too much. I think Christmas has been in a bubble and it has burst. Aren't you finding that the whole thing has just become repugnant and hollow?
MBA Index is through the roof. Must be Hurricane Sandy, no I mean the great recovery thanks to the low rates...
I bought another $1000 worth of silver this morning. Does that count?
Only if you put it on your Visa card. That you're never gonna pay off. Ever.
electronic and appliance stores ? -5.6% (vs 2011) ?
The month the iPad mini was launched, just after the release of the iPhone 5 ?
Ummm...
Video game sales down -25% YOD as well.
Unless your game is FIFA, COD, Halo, or Madden....you aint selling.
Markets green on the retail news or it may be because millions in Europe are rioting today. Could be Bernanke bucks behind the scenes action influencing reality again. Whatever it is...something doesn't seem right.
Last chart - 2012=2008, 2013=2009?
Only guns and ammo are selling well. Got Guns?
"Always keep it loaded! Always keep it loaded! Always keep it loaded!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9XEy8ZjDjQ
Back to the Obama ecnomy now that they were able to manufacture finacial numbers for the election.
Dont worry.
If there's anything the sheep love, its running up thousands on credit cards and playing santa to everyone they know, then filing bankruptcy the following spring.
Things will be fine. Just keep buying those IGadgets.
*cues music*
'makin' your way in the world today, takes everything ya got.... takin' a break from all your worries, sure could help a lot'
Main Street: "We have no money."
"Black Thursday is the new Black Friday"
http://www.examiner.com/article/black-friday-2012-sales-wal-mart-sears-t...
Is anything fucking scared anymore?
You can get most "black friday" deals online on Thanksgiving. No need to even fight the crowds. Most stores will have free shipping too, over a certain amount spent.
Really all I see is a slight dip. Yes a miss but still its nowhere near the 30% decline a true defationary "we have no more money" collapse would show.
If more Merikans were sensible they would boycott the malls this season instead of buying more cheap disposable crap from abroad and igadgets.
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one deal a day