Chart Of The Day: The Fiscal Cliff For The Rest Of Us

Tyler Durden's picture

We have discussed the fiscal cliff from many angles: timeline, the potential impact, the scenarios, whether its impact is priced in, why a bounce on success is unlikely, the endgame 'solution', and the long-term fiscal probity of the USA. As it appears everyone is becoming more aware of this pending reality, we note USA Today's great one-stop-shop infographic which simplifies the fiscal cliff impact for the rest of us: A raft of tax and spending changes scheduled to take effect in January will sharply reduce the federal budget deficit, but will also send the economy back into recession if they all happen at once.



Chart: USA Today

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Aziz's picture

We're already over the cliff. We went over the cliff a long, long time ago.

GetZeeGold's picture



Should probably stick our heads between our legs at this point.

kaiserhoff's picture

We fell of the last of a series of cliffs on November 6.  The rest is commentary and details.

new game's picture

never was a fan of free falling without  a chute, but gold seems less dense that fiat, damn the newton stuff...

sickofthepunx's picture

nothing is going to happen.


congress will cut a half-assed deal, kick the can down the road another 2 years and the market will rally.

Manthong's picture

Nice of USA Today to get a little bit real after November 6.

krispkritter's picture

You could call this the 'Thelma and Louise Economy'...

semperfi's picture

'thong - nothing against you but FUCK USELESS A' TODAY - AND FUCK ALL THE MSM !!

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

$250k in 2001 is worth $325k today. Bracket creep bitchez!!!

JPM Hater001's picture

That is a very astute observation.

We are now extending the AMT to those making $180K or probably less in 2001 dollars.

kralizec's picture

Oh, a new idea?  Yeah, that'll work!


derek_vineyard's picture

we went off the cliff long ago....when will have impact (crash)?

indygo55's picture

That's what I think too. They havent extracted every last dime from us yet. These things take time. All part of the plan.

BobPaulson's picture

Pay me later or pay me much later.

Discounting the future is nothing new. If the rest of the world falls for the scam of the US printing money to spend on things it can't afford, it isn't surprising that some people want to run that scam as long as possible.

Humans love denial because we have a genetic predisposition for denial in the face of mortality. So what happens when they can't afford the carrier fleet and Pax Americana wilts? There is going to be a shitload of medium sized powers exerting their local powers spheres in that world. We might actually see a balance of power again.

MachoMan's picture

a lot of win in this post.  +1

disabledvet's picture

A "kiln dried 2x4"'dollar is not valueless. Just avoid "the debt plague" and I think you will prosper beyond all measure.

odatruf's picture

I agree, John. The next event on the time-line isn't the beginning of the plunge; rather it is the sudden impact at the bottom.

Eireann go Brach's picture

The US is like a one armed man hanging off a cliff with itchy balls, just fucked! Let Obama finish off what he started and drive us straight over the Ledge, I am happy he was re-elected!

JPM Hater001's picture

When you really only get one swing at it...


ejmoosa's picture

It's not the fall that's gonna hurt.


It's the sudden stop.

carguym14's picture

Yep,but like Wile E. Coyote,as long as we don't look down we'll be OK.


Grinder74's picture

Just hanging out mid-air like Wile E. Coyote eh?



ilovefreedom's picture

"GDP will fall 2.9% landing at 1.9%." Weren't we just revised under 2% already to like 1.5% in 2012? How is a 2.9% drop going to equal 1.9% when we are already well below that run rate. Sounds like we should expect a negative GDP rate in 2013....

Breaker's picture

"A raft of tax and spending changes scheduled to take effect in January will sharply reduce the federal budget deficit..."

I would quibble with the word "sharply." It will reduce it some. But not by nearly enough.

The conceit of the "avoid the fiscal cliffers" is their argument that going over the cliff will cause a recession. But that is the argument that got us here. In other words, deficits don't matter but recessions do. That works until it doesn't. Eventually, you run out of room for more deficit. We are officially there and have to bite the bullet.

Back to my quibble. I think we need to bite the bullet considerably harder than the fiscal cliff. It's really not even a short term solution. Way too much deficit remains after the fiscal cliff. All a grand compromise will do is reduce the deficit effect of the cliff.

Robslob's picture anybody really knows how fucked we truly are...

disabledvet's picture

"So there is still room for what Japan calls Shocku." I agree with this. Much is hidden from us Young Grasshopper. And much of it now is BIG. I still believe New York City has been insolvent for decades for example and that the City has for all intents and purposes been looted. Has Sandy changed the game? We shall see..and see shortly I think. One thing is certain: the fiscal cliff does not not solve that problem. Only the private sector can bail out New York City.

LMAOLORI's picture



NYC isn't the only one what about obama's state of Illinois and Ca and pretty much all the blue states except Wisconsin who finally is getting it's house in order because of Gov. Walker

Illinois Debt Takes Toll, Study Finds


For years, Illinois has racked up billions in public debt to plug budget holes, pay overdue bills, and put money into its mismanaged pension funds. And for the people who live there, this has resulted in decrepit commuter trains and buses, thousands of unsound bridges, 200 hazardous dams and one of the most inequitable public school systems in America.

Illinois has the lowest credit rating of the 50 states and has America’s second-biggest public debt per capita, $9,624, including state and local borrowing. Only New York State’s debt is bigger, at $13,840 per capita. But Illinois has not been able to use much of the borrowed money to keep its roads, bridges and schools in good working order, because years of shoddy fiscal practices have taken a heavy toll, the report said.

“Illinois has been doing back flips on a high wire, without a net,” the task force said in the report, which was issued in Chicago.

The task force has been examining the finances of the states out of a concern that huge fiscal problems at the state and local level are being overlooked as the election-year debate in Washington focuses on the federal debt and deficit.

Nearly two-thirds of the Illinois state government’s $58 billion in direct debt consists of bonds the government issued to cover retirement payments for workers, including a $10 billion pension obligation bond that broke all previous records in 2003.

Yet despite all that borrowing, Illinois’ public pension system is still in tatters. In fact, its total pension shortfall is conservatively estimated at $85 billion. (in full)

State's pension is strongest in nation, study finds Wisconsin stands alone as fully funded in fiscal year 2010

ElvisDog's picture

CA actually has no worries. The Dems have a super-majority in the legislature now and can raise taxes and fees as much as they like. Deficit in CalPers? No problem, just raise property taxes on "the rich", and so on. True, it may drive all productive people out of the state, but at the moment CA can cover any budget shortfalls.

Dumpster Fire's picture

$700 billion the first year and only 160 billion is spending cuts.  lol

docj's picture

And you can bet that 90% of the spending cuts will never, in reality, happen.

exi1ed0ne's picture

I'm sure as hell not gonna taste it.  You first.

toady's picture

Exactly. Even expiring the tax cuts and cutting spending by going off the 'cliff' won't come close to the 16T they keep referencing.

Still, I'd rather see official numbers saying we are in recession than the current faked numbers saying we're not, so jump off the cliff!

Tortfeasor's picture

A Festivus for the Rest of Us!

Calidreaming's picture

Thelma and Louise  , lets go for it!

LMAOLORI's picture



The best way to rob a bank is to own one I don't know who said that but I would add it helps to have Corrupt Government Officials like Holder to avoid any prosecutions and on that note...


He's back. President Barack Obama reportedly asked Eric Holder to stay as attorney general after he's inaugurated for a second term, and the controversial Cabinet head agreed.


Report: Cronyism, political donations likely behind Obama, Holder failure to charge any bankers after 2008 financial meltdown

q99x2's picture

I feel like I'm going to puke. I'm used to these banko/politico types by now. They will simply increase the fraud by 5.6% to keep the US on a solid growth trajectory. Most everyone else will be sensing impending doom as they wonder why everything looked so great on the TV before their cable bill late notice expired.

Fishthatlived's picture

USA Today...figures. We're already in FY 2013 and our first monthly deficit was $120 billion.

Midas's picture

C'mon, who gave the down arrow?  Explain yourself.  Are you a math purist?

Grinder74's picture

Restored its positivity.



Grinder74's picture

Restored its positivity.



Winston Churchill's picture

Lets start calling this the " hillock " it actually is.

A hillock on the mountains slope in the path of an unstoppable landside/avalanche.

Atlasshruggedme's picture

I am making large investments in personal protection. Zombies = People without food stamps. 

andy_pandy's picture

=people without hope = uncontrollable