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Deer Emerges As Stocks Slump Half Way To Reality

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The crowded liquidity-fueled pump-fest of the last few months is beginning to unwind. Look around at where the damage occurred. Equities and Credit were smashed; the USD is practically unchanged; Treasuries very marginally bid; commodities sideways (aside from Oil's oscillations).

But, But, But I'm Hedged...

 

The close did see some of the other asset classes start to catch down to equity and credit but based on our models, we see the S&P 500 having retraced about half its short-term mispricing relative to Treasuries. All the over-pumped sectors were the biggest laggards - Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Tech - but from the 11/25/11 beginning of the global coordinated central bank pump, there is still plenty of downside for stocks. Our greatest concern now is if high-yield bond ETFs are unwound (where so much liquidity is concentrated) and forces cash bond liquidations - there is simply no depth to soak up that move and the entire secondary market will reprice (and shut the primary market - which has lived on flows for so long).

 

So what happened...and why - well maybe this chart will help...


Gold is now almost 3% ahead of stocks on the year as the long-bond is catching up fast on the S&P 500...

 

but stocks have plenty of froeth from the beginning of the globally coordinated liquidity flush from 11/25/11...

 

the S&P 500 has now retraced around half of its pre-QE3 dislocation...

 

and equities are also catching down to high-yield credit's warning signs...but the reflexivity will begin in this pair shorly...

 

and for a sense of the relative calmness in non-equity/credit markets today... with ETFs all moving as one big liquidity block (left) but FX, Treasuries, and commodities were unimpressed having already made their moves... (right)

 

HYG crossed below its 200DMA and equalled its largest drop in over six weeks (with serious volume)...

 

and the last few days shows that when the selling begins, it will squeeze the cash market (the lower pane) just as the wash of liquidity drives the cash market via the ETF on the way up in HYG... Critically, we saw a big bond dump at the open today to catch down to HYG's 'price' and then HYG kept going lower all day to leave yet another big gap...

 

Evidently, as we have said again and again, the surplus of liquidity has been soaked up in the synthetic instruments (ETFs for instance). It's all fun and games on the way up - just ask Bruno Iksil - but when the unwinds begin and the 'real' market can't soak up that risk (consider dealer inventories!!) then price adjustments are rapid and gappy - everywhere...

 

Finally, the long-term CONTEXT view of where we stand...

 

We would imagine that every repo desk margin call is currently going directly to voicemail...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL's last week...VWAP finally snapped

 

AAPL Shareholder's perspective...

 

Facebook's 12% rise (coincidentally on record daily volume and perfectly ending at the big gap-down day's VWAP close...not sure this one holds up here) and for one more crazy coincidence (which by now we hope you do not believe in) - today's closing VWAP of $21.62 is EXACTLY the same as the aggregate VWAP from the 10/24 high volume ramp til today...

and Facebook putholders...

 


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Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

You wanted him, you got him!

IT IS THE DEER BITCHEZ!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

What is zero divided by two?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

no gas for you!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

Not true. I had chili for lunch.

If only my car ran on ass fumes.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

everything is fine you guys worry too much

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Someone please fan the fire faster...

.

This limbo state is the fuckin worst.

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

The stock market has eerily been following the same crash pattern that unfolded in 1929 and 1987.  If the analogy holds, we just went over the cliff:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxJzS3RcB1U&feature=player_embedded&list=...

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/11/extreme-danger-immediately-...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

A few years from now, all the shit that you have laying around won't be worth an ounce of GOLD

by 2020 you will wish that you had sold everything you owned and bought gold bars with it

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

All right, we're gonna be displacing and falling back like crazy sons of bitches.  So you got to be Johnny on the spot with the ammo, or we're dead.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Genius. Chucky "Fuck Flyover Country" Schumer instructing The Bernank to Save Goldman's & JP Morgan's privates.

Get to Work, Bernank!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

"Upem's ass"

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

"Upem's ass"

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Fuckin' A

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

Geithner says 1 million.

Barney Frank says 1 Bwillion.

Paul Krugman says 100 trillion.

Ben Bernanke says "Shhh. Go back to sleep. Everything is ok."

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Everything's fine.

At least housing is roaring back ("The Joes" said so; LaVorgna & Weisenthal):

 

WSJ: Housing Agency (that insures 84% of New Mortgages) Close to Exhausting Reserves


The Federal Housing Administration is expected to report later this week that it could exhaust its reserves because of rising mortgage delinquencies, according to people familiar with the matter. That could result in the agency needing to draw on taxpayer funding for the first time in its 78-year history.

From the WSJ:

"Overall, the FHA insured nearly 739,000 loans that were 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure at the end of September, an increase of more than 100,000 loans from one year ago. That represents around 9.6% of its $1.08 trillion in mortgages guarantees.

 

The FHA's annual audit estimates how much money the agency would need to pay off all claims on projected losses, against how much it has in reserves. Last year, that buffer stood at $1.2 billion, representing around 0.12% of its loan guarantees. Federal law requires the agency to stay above a 2% level, which it breached three years ago.

 

The decision over whether the FHA will need money from Treasury won't be made until next February, when the White House typically releases its annual budget. Because the FHA has what is known as "permanent and indefinite" budget authority, it wouldn't need to ask Congress for funds;


[...wait for it...]


...it would automatically receive money from the U.S. Treasury."

 

 

Whew!!! Thank God that the U.S. Treasury is so flush!!!

 

Housing "Investors" v2.0

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

I wonder how many 10000s of flooded and wrecked houses will enter the foreclosrue status over the next 6 months?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment giddy
giddy's picture

...oh my... haven't laughed that hard in ages... just think... the folks running FHA are the same genuis's that ran Freddie and Fannie... yippee

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Laughter is often a reflexive reaction to pure, unadulterated insanity...

...point being....you're normal.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

This ain't half way to reality, not even close. I'll start to get excited when we start approaching 1/4 the way to reality.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

The obamaphone fat assed bitch could care less. Stupid f-ing sheep

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Half of nothing, duh.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market may face serious problems during the following months. The fall registarda since October has been significant. The market is currently oversold. It is very likely that tomorrow or the next day we see a rebound on Wall Street. However, if the market is unable to reach a new high, we will see a major setback. Will be more than a correction. I think we should be very careful and remember that you can always make money in the market. No matter if the market goes up or down. Only matter which side we say.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Dipshit(s)

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Bicycles and Beer
Bicycles and Beer's picture

"What is zero divided by two?"

depends on which compiler you ask.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous peon
Anonymous peon's picture

That's easy, half of zero.....or whatever else I want it to be because I know "new math" and I always "feel" good about my answers.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

I love that fuckin' deer.  Soon as Donkey Kong shows up I'm headed to the bar.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

You can probably find a better date than Donkey Kong,

but if big monkeys are what you're into,

then go as Jane Goodall as you please.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment SwampHonkey
SwampHonkey's picture

That shit was too funny.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

she'll be no good if this turns into a stampede

try Nancy peloski, that batty bitch can wiggle out of anything

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

I voted you down for saying Nancy Peloski and wiggle.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Major sell-off in junk bonds today.  Next comes investment grade.  Then comes pure quality (gold among other things).  

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

" The British in India will be slaughtered. Then we will overrun the Moslems and force their "Allah" to bow to Kali.  And then the Hebrew God will fall and finally the Christian God will be cast down and forgotten."

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

The Mutiny was over 150 years ago - a little late to the party aren't you?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Gold selloff?  I hear China's buying.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

I agree. We seem close to a serious scramble for liquidity here.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King dollar!

lol....

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

I agree as well, loathe as I am to say anything about gold going down, past history has shown then a crash hits, there's a liquidity-ification phase as people sell anything of value (e.g. gold) to cover margins and whatnot. Just remember that we saw a 10% drop in the first two weeks of September '08 during the last crisis, and a 20% increase off that bottom a month later.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Dealer
Dealer's picture

I love the deer, but I like the riot dog more.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

EUR/USD holding up.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment konputa
konputa's picture

EUR-USD has been freaky over the last 3 days, basically flat. I'm shocked at the lack of volatility. Up only 20 pips in 3 days? How the fuck does that happen?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

YES!!! Now my day is complete!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

DEER BITCHEZ!

kevin come out and play

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Venison, jerky!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

Bullish.... no, I mean Bull$hit.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Don't worry they will print another couple trillion dollars soon to keep the binge going. The good thing, this will only strengthen the fundamentals of gold and silver.

 

http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

I was hoping dow would finish on the lows... it's all good.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Thecomingcollapse
Thecomingcollapse's picture

All we need is a good war by God

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

GO LONG on Sinkholes. Salt domes. Navy Maps. and Edgar Cayce predictions.

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

One quarter of the way. The inauguration, I suspect, will be a very somber day for the bulls(hitters).

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Gold and silver miners got crushed today.  GDX down 4.63% and GDXJ down 4.95% and SLW down 6.69%.

If gold and silver are headed higher, the Fed's strategy seems to be is to attack the miners - their product will follow them down.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Why, oh why do people buy gold miners?

From Hugh Hendry: "I am long gold and I am short gold mining equities. There is no rationale for owning gold mining equities. It is as close as you get to insanity. The risk premium goes up when the gold price goes up. Societies are more envious of your gold at $3000 than at $300. And there is no valuation argument that protects you against the risk of confiscation. And if you are bullish gold why don’t you buy gold ETFs, gold futures or gold bullion.”"

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Thanks for the advice Tyler, I'll probably steer clear of miners then.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

and steer clear of the broken records that keep pumping that shit...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Not to mention the naked shorting that goes on all the time.

Always great to get half the story (no, not LONG miners).

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Still, that does not explain why gold miners got hit hard today when gold is up. Something is up (or down in today's case) with the gold mining stocks..

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Could just be technical in nature, testing lows on a day the market takes a crap is never a good combo.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 "I say, I say...don't buy the henhouse from the fox when you can directly buy the hens, boy. Are you listening, boy?!"

 

-- Foghorn J. Leghorn

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

I don't own any miners. I learned the hard way.

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Oh Snap. Accidental double tap.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Hey Homer, it's called naked shorting. Mr Flanders could have told you that.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

"Why, oh why do people buy gold miners?"

Because one of the enduring stories of the 1930s is Homestake Mining.

(BTW I never thought I'd see a Tyler implying credence to a gold ETF. When the gold ETFs go down they will be revealed as one of the biggest scams ever).

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

In the 80's gold stocks did fucking amazing.  Big leverage.  Lottery ticket for me. 

 

But still you know what they say about a hole in the ground with a liar on top looking in.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

But still you know what they say about a hole in the ground with a liar on top looking in.

"Change we can believe in"?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why? Tradition of multiples, that's why.

Of course, there are other traditions, such as being Chavezed in the name of "the people."

As always, if you don't hold it, you don't own it!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

lol the ETF...and futures for that matter.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Can you believe that shit? Hendry is a stooge on gold if he's promoting that garbage. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

And if you are bullish gold why don’t you buy gold ETFs, gold futures or gold bullion.

I'm surprised to see him recommend gold ETFs and futures.

I'm starting to believe confiscation isn't an issue. People would just rush into stones or industrial metals, maybe copper, or rare metals like rhodium or osmium (though very high premiums ruin any store of value). In other words, people are more aware of the FED now, and they're not going to be forced into dollars. I've been stocking up copper pennies and nickles because they seem like the logical choice should they try confiscation, and there is the added benefit in that they offer better inflation protection than their paper counterparts.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

While gold went from $350 to $1,000 how did miners do and how many were nationalized?

There is more risk from hedge funds doing just what Hugh Hendry says than there is of nationalization.   The mining sector is very small so any big money shorting it crushes it, cutting off access to capital for explorers and juniors.  This makes them easier to prey for the majors.  There's a bit of history and litigation regarding the expansion of ABX.  It was argued that ABX was a big player in suppressing gold prices as well, selling forward.

Crushing the explorers and juniors who create value, so their assets can be looted is nothing to be proud of.  I look forward to day the Hugh Hendry's of the world are forced to cover in an exploding, tight market.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I own the miners.  The miners will have their day in the sun. There will be a period where they will skyrocket once reality sets in that gold is heading much higher. I will head for the exits then. Gold at $1700 plus and oil down here means it's less costly to get it out of the ground. Today was margin calls in other places forcing people to sell these good companies.

If you can't tell by my staunch defense how bad these miners suck thats your problem.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Why do people buy gold miners? 

Because they believe.

Because they think they can know the fundamentals

Because they think that fundamentals always matter to the markets.

Because they think it's always a market, when in fact, it's sometimes a market, an auction for price discovery, but at other times it's just a policy tool, and still others, it's just a scam.

It's not a market, it's a method of control to turn a human being into a battery that willingly powers a reality that doesn't exist. 

People buy miners because they confuse reality with what they are told is reality, basically the Matrix come to life.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

The other problem with mining companies is that so many of them are also playing the commodities themselves, either directly or indirectly (through their debt financing which can be largely based on projections of cash flows).  In other words you as a shareholder are sort of playing the market twice, with little transparency. 

 

I like it better when it clinks, or at least clacks in its plastic nicely.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Gold miners are fun to trade. Lots of volatility in that

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

That's the reason I can't stomach Kingworld News any more.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 05:48 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Kingworld Mining Ads.

2012 apr 17 gold ROC trends | 52week ROC gold to 2400/oz

roc 52 week monitor $gold

goldpricemodel 2013 roc 52-week

goldpricemodel 2013 projection

Once I got good enough at doing those charts I realized I didn't listen to KWN at all. I try to pop in for a listen to Turk or Rickards & Eveilliard but I flat out ignore Celente, Sprott & some others are so-so. Ben Hinde I pay attention to. Metals Wrap seems pointless to me since I've got my charts, they are way better than "support and resistance" concepts and for past data we ALL have those charts so why bother with a podcast/mp3/etc? Pointless.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 05:37 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Very true. I regard buying mining shares in the penny-stocks like buying lottery tickets. I regard buying expensive established miners like flushing money down the toilet. If I want to actually make money reliably from a mine I'll go work for a mining company directly so there's a real salary.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

How exactly is the FED attacking miners?

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

corzined bitchez!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I just got a look at the retail EDI report for the first half of November from a major US retailer. Down 40% from last year.

The buyer was laughing throughout the entire meeting. The companies listed on the report keep putting out releases claiming comp increases and greater sales. He said they must be selling to Mars or smething because the product didn't move at his stores.

McDonald's had a decrease in sales during the month of the Monopoly promotion, generally their best month of the year. If that doesn't tell you retail is screwed, nothing will.

Black Friday is expected to be huge. It may break records again, but it will be the only day of shopping this year. Expect full out $2 towel riots and most likely a number of deaths. Blacks have already planned mass flash mobs in white shopping malls and suburban stores. The goal is to prevent whitey from buying anything. All the stuff belongs to blacks and they mean to show it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

Anyone who shops on Black Friday is a lunatic.

I guess there's a lot of lunatics in this country.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

I'd go so far to say anyone who shops is a lunatic.

There are like 5 products in life we actually need.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment sherryw
sherryw's picture

You two above me are guys, right?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

And anyone who goes into a mall is a lunatic. Malls are no gun zones for us, the good guys. But we all know the criminal element does not obey them laws. So I never, ever step foot in a mother f--king mall. Despise the places.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

So? I'm not going shopping on MLK day either! But that seat in the front of the bus is MINE!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Timmay
Timmay's picture

Please, PLEASE have the headline: THIS BITCH IS GOING DOWN

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Deer in rut right now, long auto body repair.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

Oh no... no again... there's just so many of 'em > http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_d4m2Txz0O_k/SaTcDAt37QI/AAAAAAAACpo/Eqn4TsCczo...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Love the deer.  A regular and welcome visitor here.  Good chuckle near the end of a BatShit crazy day.  Thanks Tyler.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment freedogger
freedogger's picture

Not a lie - I walked out my door last night around midnight. There was a big doe on my front lawn. She was beautiful. My dog went after it and it came barelling back at me after crossing the street. I had my high powered flashlight in hand and beamed it right in the face. It veered away from me at the last second. After going back inside, I thought to myself, might be a good day to short AAPL tomorrow!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment poldark
poldark's picture

Dow at 6000 should be about right.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I was thinking 7000, but that is just splitting hairs considering where the market WILL have to come from to reach either level

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

If gold doesn't collapse with it, that would put the gold/dow ratio around historical norms. I think what will happen eventually is dow 7800, gold 2500. Stocks have a lot working against them. They're pricing in inflation when we haven't experienced the appropriate deflation yet (b/c of the FED). Now Obama is after capital gain taxes, which pretty much destroys the value of a corporation. All roads lead to gold (though, if you can't barter it, the collectible tax rate even kills that 'investment').

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment NooooB
NooooB's picture

OH MY GOD! CAT'S ON ZERO HEDGE! MY REDDIT MIND AND MY GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONSPIRACY MIND ARE NOW ONE!.. I think I came...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Blythe is going to look like that cat when the silver bomb goes off.
Just wait till some of that BIG money starts chasing precious metals

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment phoolish
phoolish's picture

Bring on the Next Maiden Lane.

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

There might be a few more deer in the headlights before this is done:  Patraeus Agrees to Testify.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/14/petraeus-agrees-to-testify-on-libya-before-congressional-committees/

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Petraeus Agrees to Move Lips, While The Ventroliquist-in-Chief's Minions Spout Party Line    /Fixt

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Are they going to blackmail him?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

I think they already gave him the shot across the bow.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Yeah?  Or maybe they got their hand called and shot their wad.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

The Big Zero: "We have intell that General Betray-US is going to Petraeus".

CIA Black Ops: "I'm confused...."

O: Don't be, time to liquidate this terrist, execute!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Laisse Passer to the base, she loves to hit home runs on Macdill irforce base; Kelly the dear deer in the head lights now!

Jill Kelley's Pass Let Her Into MacDill Air Force Base Without Escort - Business Insider

Thats the sweet spicy end of the stick. Then there is the darker side :

GOP Senators Are Going To War With Obama Over Susan Rice And The Libya Attacks - Business Insider

Take your pick !

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

Petraeus was taken down on orders from above. Maybe because he was considered a possible red prez candidate for 2016. Let's hope he knows it and has plenty to say.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

military coup.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Remember, if you impeach the Kenyan guy you have to live with Biden.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

That is why they keep him around.  He is the Democrats version of Dan Quayle. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Just as long as no one loses any money then Americans will go along for the ride. 

So please Central Planners, we are begging you, fix our problems. FIx our problems with your printing presses, and with your wit and sciences.  Please, we are begging you!  We can't do it on our own!  We our lowly serfs who can't put two sticks together to save ourselves!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

We have deer sign, Muad'dib!

I love that fucking thing. ZH should have one of the t-shirt companies with the large-breasted models wear a ZH deer shirt. Shit, I'd buy 10 of them.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

You know that many guys with moobs?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

Help needed Tyler,

TVIX closed at 1.37 for eveyone except Charles Schwab were it closed at 1.34.   The difference is a 3% gain vs a less than 1% gain.

How is this possible.  Please review

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tvix/time-sales

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Membership has it's privileges.  Please, there is no market.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Help me next Tyler,  have you ever heard of Ophir Gottlieb?

Lockheed options spike before CEO news unexplained so far WASHINGTON/CHICAGO | Wed Nov 14, 2012 2:17pm EST  

WASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) said on Wednesday that it could not explain the huge jump in trading in its stock options last week, hours ahead of the surprising news that its incoming chief executive had resigned after admitting to an ethics breach.

It was the highest put volume in the defense contractor in more than two years, data from Livevol, another analytics firm, showed. "This is either a one-in-a-thousand random event or suspicious options trading ahead of the announcement," said Ophir Gottlieb, managing director of Livevol. (i would say 1 in a million)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which looks into unusual stock and options activity, declined to comment.

I will comment, I think this might be insider trading, but thats just me.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/14/us-lockheed-options-trading-idUSBRE8AD1HB20121114

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I'm suddenly reminded of Sir Alec Guinness, which is not helping much I grant you.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

QE3, where is thy zing?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Sweet Jesus, I love days like today. Shorted aud right at the top last night.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I can't tell when risk is on or off when the dollar plays possum like this.

Or is it finally dead?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 DXY is pinging of the [100day ma.] and the [50% Fibi] retrace slightly above" @ 81.30 area" off the 84.12- 78.54 move.

 If that goes then, run for the hills...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

I agree with Yen.  The market is hedged on DXY bids, the futures (equities) risk/on off before open will be more reality based (just risk off) rather than the priced in trade, which has been occurring for months now, more so after Sandy. 

For any major equity bounce the DXY is got to be trending under 80, at least 75 or lower. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment sherryw
sherryw's picture

How low are we going YC?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Ask  "Peter Schiff"...  Xau is moving up with the dollar. Personally, I think we get a retrace (ala) headfake, then a massive move...

  It's coming. The volume and (standard deviation) suggest a powerful move!  It will be violent 10% .

 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

High noon yesterday I was out walking with my dogs.  We kicked up a monster buck at the back end of my property and, lucky for me, I happened to have my camera on me and got a couple of nice pictures.  I wish I could show you guys.....  Fricken awesome, he was!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Too bad.....You should have had your 30.06.............

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Loved the report except the graph showing I'm betting against context twenty some points. Ouch.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Fat fingers again. Lucky I didn't set off a flash crash.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Oh that is coming since the machines make up their own moving average trades (which created the illusion of suppressed volatility), this whole market could shift 10% negative as the algo's recalibrate the 20/50/100/200's MA's.

It's a gamed market that is about to game it's self. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

from wires re: Fed becoming the super money printing machine from hell, now replacing Op Twist.

--Maturity-extension effort to be replaced with outright buying

Print you maniacs print, love that stagflation hitting the east coast/NY, oil price etc, nice Bernanke and co, real nice...

Meantime markets are correcting in a brutal and unforgiving manner, fiscal cliff or not, 81+ bid on the DXY + going long in equities (at this point in time) = death-wish.

Now with Clinton doing her o/s drumming-up-allies for the coming Iran strike.  Ah sh*t these f*ckers are going to kill this market.

I love chaos. 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Lets go...preemptive warm-up.  Iran is next.  Obama's green light any-day now.

JERUSALEM (AFP)--Israel's security cabinet voted Wednesday to allow a call up of army reservists "according to need" as the Jewish state launched a campaign against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. In a meeting "it was decided ... to permit the IDF (army), according to need and with the approval of the defence minister, to call up reservists," a cabinet statement said. An army spokesman told AFP that some notices had been issued to specific personnel but there was no general call up. Israeli aircraft earlier killed top Hamas military commander Ahmed Jaabari and his bodyguard, prompting outrage from militants who said the Jewish state had opened "the gates of hell." In more than 20 other air strikes which followed, at least another six people were killed and 65 injured, Gaza medics said. Israel warned this was only the start of an operation targeting Palestinian militant groups in Gaza that comes as the Jewish state prepares for general elections in January.


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I think the jungle drums are saying Syria's going to be taken down first. The powers that be are just itching to hit it, in Libya - The Sequel. Iran will be hit after that

but given that it's an embedded theocracy I think it will be a much taller order than Iraq, Afganistan, etc.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

You know, Syria firing shells into Israel and Turkey (NATO county) is to widen the conflict, they know that Russia DO NOT want NATO/Israel involved in that dispute, Libya could blow again because a bunch of bandits are running the country, still amazes me that the ambassadors murder was just swept under the carpet.   The whole region going to explode up, on cue with Israel getting the green light from Obama, moon cycles, tides, sandstorms etc etc etc.

Any-day.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

We ain't even close to halfway... we're not even 10% off Peak Stupid yet

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

The following are a summary of hunting laws and regulations for big game hunters. For complete reference consult the New York State Environmental Conservation Law and Volume 6 of the Codes, Rules and Regulations of the State of New York.

Hunting Hours
Click Here to Report!

Big game hunting hours are sunrise to sunset. Sunday hunting is allowed in all areas of New York. There are some local exceptions. Check the area that you hunt carefully. For hunting on state parks, confirm regulations with the park before hunting.

Legally Antlered Deer

A legally antlered deer must have at least one antler that is three inches or longer measured from the base of the burr. Special regulations apply in the Antler Restriction area.

"Early" and "Late" Seasons for Deer and Bear

When you see the term "early" muzzleloader or archery season, it means before the regular deer season for that particular zone. "Late" means after the regular deer season for that zone.

Rifle, Shotgun and Bow Areas

The portions of New York where rifles, shotguns and bows may be used during the regular firearms seasons are set in law by the state legislature. See Rifle, Shotgun and Bow Areas for a map of where various hunting implements may be used in the state.

'Tis the season FiSHeS!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

CATS: All your unrealized capital gains for 2012 are belong to us.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

Ohmyohmyohmyohmy!

Phil D. revealed as "Ilene." (We already knew he was also Mensa Stevie.)

And all of a sudden, out of nowhere!, seemingly hundreds of stories on about serious and vicious hacking attacks - extraordinarily similar in their description to those some of us right here have been experiencing - against the closed and closely-guarded websties of "up to a thousand" hedge funds - which must be close to the entire Universe of hedge funds - around the world.

Once again, Poopsies: You may have annoyed "The Deer."

But intelligent Deer - and Muppets - and Sheeple - and Peasants - and Pretty Much Anybody Outside of an Official PPT - knows this Scenario is of a whole other order than the Scenario of 2008.

That time, there were at least some excuses, particularly as the techniques of the HFTs were not as well-known by the Cyberpolicepeople.

This time, it is purely a MEDIA event. Not a political event. Not a financial event. Not an economic event.

It's a cynical, contrived, banal, silly, and malicious Media event, which could be stopped on a dime any ole time anyone has the cojones and the gumption and the simple human decency to stop it.

If it is NOT stopped, I can assure you that The Deer - and they are legion - will take their revenge one way or another. Taking over a cable channel or two, for example. Or maybe even a brokerage or two.

No! Not possible, you say? Well, just think about what happened in the UK not too many months ago, involving a certain frail and elderly mogul.

Or what happened just a few weeks ago to a pint-size and randy mogul in Southern Europe.

How beloved, really, if they continue to support an unsupportable agenda, are those who employ YOU - or at least quite a few of you?

You may think you're on correct side.

Then, again, you could just be very surprised.

 

 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Just keep that fucking thing outta my windshield.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Have you been on the anti depressants?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

And we DO know the "Meds" references are pretty much always to Media Player.

(Note: The reason you see a couple of uncharacteristic typos in my longer post above is because I suddenly couldn't edit it. Don't want anybody to think I'm one of YOU.)

Yes, my Media Player has been horrid lately, but so has everyone else's with this abortive changeover to Windows 8. The Ninnies keep trying to make people take updates - new features - nobody much wants. And that in turn is causing problems with everyone's ISP.

We all know Microsoft is Evil, so what else is new?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

GE is my belwether stock and it lost 3.24% today, which is some shit for the stock that WAS the highest market cap in the world and has feet in both the physical and financial realms globally.

On the other hand the 1 year chart still just looks like a correction.  So far.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GE:US

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

NOT that I would be caught dead owning any paper pieces of shit mind you.  Lest I be junked to death.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Relax Jim, you're cool.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

most of Cramerica has that look, after listening to his advice to load the boat with high dividend payers the last several months... ouch!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Those cats are so cute!!!!!

Cats will get us through this depression. I keep mine in side so no one eats them.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Let it all burn to the ground.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Kill it!

Kill it with FIRE!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

To add insult to injury, the stock market may flash a bear market signal tomorrow. If the Transports close below its 09/28/2012 lows, all bets are off.

 

Here you have the vital chart:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-is-p...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I need no chart to tell me that we are fucked. I see it with my own eyes. That problem will be when everyone else sees it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 +1 Hope your homestead is ok. We don't need no stinking charts to tell us what "SHIT" tastes like...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

2013, Year Of The Deer!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 21:09 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

time to go long /es,  everytime i see the deer.  guaran-fuckin-teed.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:36 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

SS- Agree.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Elliott wave did a fine job recognizing the top back on October 15 and the pending drop that was to come.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-climbs-support-today/

 

Expect this to be wave 3 down - it will be painful.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!