Why The Troika's Forecasts Are A Total Joke In One Easy Chart

Tyler Durden's picture


The remarkable forecasting skills of the Troika and the immense decisions being taken on the back of these 'sacrosanct' projections need to be put into context. We are more than happy to do that (as we did here - with hilarity ensuing), but the chart below shows even more clearly, so far so bad as the Troika has pretty much nailed it on the 'most optimistic mean-reverting model' ever. Not wanting to steal the jam from Europe's donut but the forecasts are - quite evidently - a complete and utter joke. Going forward though, we are sure it's different this time...



(h/t Follow The Money)

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Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981763 jeff314
jeff314's picture

fuck you bernanke and fuck you Troika

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981764 no taste
no taste's picture

Fat man in Karl Rove mask disgusts 19 yr old college co-ed.  "He fell down and drooled on my favorite shoes," Sasha Broadwell reported, "it was just disgusting."  She went on to say that she was relieved when the mask slipped off, and she recognized him as the creepy guy who frequents the coffee shop where she works.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2981805 redpill
redpill's picture

Are they outsourcing their forecasting to Jim Cramer by chance?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2981814 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Beat me to it redpill. Maybe they are tag teaming with Tilson.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2981828 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

A simple extrapolation shows -15% Greek GDP in 2014


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:09 | 2981943 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Do you think the Trokia would mind if I used that graph shape on the Left hand side as a X- section for a boat Hull I'm building. It would cut through almost anything including frozen seas.

I've name the boat "Titanic Errors"

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:51 | 2982057 walküre
walküre's picture

2022 - LOLOLOL - this is NOT a joke (Juncker 11/13/12)

Juncker is also leaving this sinking ship early 2013.

They're all broke. PIIGS, UK, France and Germany. USA fiscal cliff. The money is drying up and revenues are collapsing from the Ural Mountains to the Balkans.

PRINT FEST is coming. Hallelujah!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 07:59 | 2983406 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

We are well and truly TROIKERED!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:59 | 3002070 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Troika, a word from Stalinist Russia, and we use it in the free democratic world.  Huh?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:11 | 3002128 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bill McBride references ZH in passing in the interview posted on BI:

"You’ve been around long enough to know that there’s a whole industry of gloom and doom, that the ZeroHedge mentality kind of guys. I’m almost 50 years old. All my life there’s been people telling me that the world’s gonna end for this and that reason in the next few years....

I don’t think so, I think things are getting better in general. And there’s reasons for that."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-mcbride-of-calculated-risk-2012-11#ixzz2CsG4jhSU

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981767 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Greece looks to be fucked for a good few more years.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2981786 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Greece is fucked as long as they burn 400,000 barrels of Brent priced oil per day and watch as that amount of money (roughly 5% of GDP) flows out of the country.

Few more years?  Try forever.  How's forever sound?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2981797 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My contrarian view is that Greece becomes part of Germany and both leave the Eurozone.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:06 | 2982770 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Match made in heaven. Opposites attract...so they say.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2981807 HappyCamper
HappyCamper's picture

But, but, but... they can always sell islands and virgins, can't they?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:50 | 2981914 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

There are virgins left in Greece?


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:54 | 2981921 ThirdWorldDude
Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:10 | 2981945 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

All the greek girls are virgins...in the front....not so much in the back.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:33 | 2982008 Mr Fix You Up Good
Mr Fix You Up Good's picture

So evil. but we like it....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:55 | 2983094 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I don't buy that.
So far their model of restarting, borrowing more they can pay back and going bust has worked every single time. Yes, maybe they used to spend less oil, but that works to their advantage - they will find it even easier to go bust.

Once the country is completely robbed, they can simply stopped working.
What's the EU going to do? Kick them out?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:53 | 2981919 jal
jal's picture

Didn't the Greeks have an empire before electricity and oil?

The good old days will come back.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | 2981771 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Even a blind squirrel will find a nut sooner or later

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981789 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless eaten by a bird of prey of course.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2981815 Conman
Conman's picture

Evendently you never read On the Origin of  Species. Go get it, pay attention to natural selection part.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | 2981774 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Severely autistic children could do better.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:09 | 2981794 akak
akak's picture

The difference between the two groups being ....?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 02:46 | 2983224 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Somebody(s) would get upset if you were to euthanize the children...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 03:48 | 2983257 Joe A
Joe A's picture

The children are not evil

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | 2981778 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Monty Python should consider suing the Troika for the silly jokes

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:36 | 2981883 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Monty Python made a film on the greek situation called "the twit olympics"  : It summarises the Troika antics perfectly.

Monty Python Twit Olympics - YouTube

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:47 | 2981908 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Brilliant, but Monty Python was first so they should still sue the Troika.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:11 | 2982787 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I favor Mr. Creosote. Feed the beast until it explodes. Give it the rope with which to hang itself /evil grin.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981781 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The sun'll come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | 2981782 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

And yet they *still* believe their own bullshit.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:32 | 2981870 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Tera Patrick

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:03 | 2982102 brak
brak's picture

dat ass

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981785 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Notice how each time their projection gets steeper to the upside!!! LOL...

Maybe at some point it will be a straight line up!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:28 | 2981853 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Clearly it's not a forecast, it's targeting.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:39 | 2981888 Conman
Conman's picture

Yup, they are targeting the same thing in each forecast (0-1% GDP growth), gap is growing becuase gdp is shrinking at an increasing pace YoY. It will keep shrinking since all "austerity" has yet to be implemented and when it does watch for that cahert to go parobilic downward.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2981787 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Massive deflationary forces at work bitchez and no increasing energy supply available for the increasing amount of useless eaters around.  War it shall be then.  Hedge accordingly.


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:12 | 2981812 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

UE used to mean unemployment.

LOPdood has the new standard meaning for it now.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:22 | 2981841 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

There is no such thing as Fiat Deflation

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:24 | 2981848 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

correct,  fiat is only as good the faith and trust behind it.  Address the issue of moral hazard and so much of this shit fixes itself.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:31 | 2981869 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I knew shit was hazardous but I didn't know it was moral! 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2981813 akak
akak's picture

Define "deflation" then, because neither I, nor my wallet, are seeing it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2981823 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Deflation is defined as a 1.6% 10 year yield, and negative on shorter maturities in Germany.  How's that for a definition?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:23 | 2981845 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:31 | 2981859 akak
akak's picture

It is NOT, however, a steadily rising, ~5-6% rate of REAL inflation and accordingly rising cost of living, with the concommitant falling value of ordinary, fiat-denominated savings.  That is why I call "bullshit" on any specious claim that ANYONE in the world is suffering from so-called "deflation" today.  Funny how everyone in the political-financial establishment would like us to believe that we are, though --- thereby attempting to take away the onus of the responsibility for the pro-oligarchy monetary insanity which currently passes for "helping the economy" from those actually causing it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:45 | 2981901 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

deflation: a rare and supposedly undesireable condition that central bankers use as an excuse to justify money printing (see 'the boogeyman')

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:30 | 2981866 falak pema
falak pema's picture

deflation is the opposite to what I feel when I see Julia Roberts in Pelican File. 

Albert Edwards's GF once described "deflation" to him during an intimate encounter : ...Is that it?

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