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Why The Troika's Forecasts Are A Total Joke In One Easy Chart

Tyler Durden's picture


The remarkable forecasting skills of the Troika and the immense decisions being taken on the back of these 'sacrosanct' projections need to be put into context. We are more than happy to do that (as we did here - with hilarity ensuing), but the chart below shows even more clearly, so far so bad as the Troika has pretty much nailed it on the 'most optimistic mean-reverting model' ever. Not wanting to steal the jam from Europe's donut but the forecasts are - quite evidently - a complete and utter joke. Going forward though, we are sure it's different this time...



(h/t Follow The Money)


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Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981763 jeff314
jeff314's picture

fuck you bernanke and fuck you Troika

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981764 no taste
no taste's picture

Fat man in Karl Rove mask disgusts 19 yr old college co-ed.  "He fell down and drooled on my favorite shoes," Sasha Broadwell reported, "it was just disgusting."  She went on to say that she was relieved when the mask slipped off, and she recognized him as the creepy guy who frequents the coffee shop where she works.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2981805 redpill
redpill's picture

Are they outsourcing their forecasting to Jim Cramer by chance?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2981814 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Beat me to it redpill. Maybe they are tag teaming with Tilson.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2981828 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

A simple extrapolation shows -15% Greek GDP in 2014

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:09 | 2981943 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Do you think the Trokia would mind if I used that graph shape on the Left hand side as a X- section for a boat Hull I'm building. It would cut through almost anything including frozen seas.

I've name the boat "Titanic Errors"

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:51 | 2982057 walküre
walküre's picture

2022 - LOLOLOL - this is NOT a joke (Juncker 11/13/12)

Juncker is also leaving this sinking ship early 2013.

They're all broke. PIIGS, UK, France and Germany. USA fiscal cliff. The money is drying up and revenues are collapsing from the Ural Mountains to the Balkans.

PRINT FEST is coming. Hallelujah!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 07:59 | 2983406 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

We are well and truly TROIKERED!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:59 | 3002070 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Troika, a word from Stalinist Russia, and we use it in the free democratic world.  Huh?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:11 | 3002128 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bill McBride references ZH in passing in the interview posted on BI:

"You’ve been around long enough to know that there’s a whole industry of gloom and doom, that the ZeroHedge mentality kind of guys. I’m almost 50 years old. All my life there’s been people telling me that the world’s gonna end for this and that reason in the next few years....

I don’t think so, I think things are getting better in general. And there’s reasons for that."

Read more:

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:03 | 2981767 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Greece looks to be fucked for a good few more years.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2981786 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Greece is fucked as long as they burn 400,000 barrels of Brent priced oil per day and watch as that amount of money (roughly 5% of GDP) flows out of the country.

Few more years?  Try forever.  How's forever sound?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2981797 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My contrarian view is that Greece becomes part of Germany and both leave the Eurozone.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:06 | 2982770 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Match made in heaven. Opposites they say.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:11 | 2981807 HappyCamper
HappyCamper's picture

But, but, but... they can always sell islands and virgins, can't they?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:50 | 2981914 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

There are virgins left in Greece?


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:54 | 2981921 ThirdWorldDude
Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:10 | 2981945 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

All the greek girls are the front....not so much in the back.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:33 | 2982008 Mr Fix You Up Good
Mr Fix You Up Good's picture

So evil. but we like it....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:55 | 2983094 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I don't buy that.
So far their model of restarting, borrowing more they can pay back and going bust has worked every single time. Yes, maybe they used to spend less oil, but that works to their advantage - they will find it even easier to go bust.

Once the country is completely robbed, they can simply stopped working.
What's the EU going to do? Kick them out?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:53 | 2981919 jal
jal's picture

Didn't the Greeks have an empire before electricity and oil?

The good old days will come back.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | 2981771 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Even a blind squirrel will find a nut sooner or later

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981789 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless eaten by a bird of prey of course.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2981815 Conman
Conman's picture

Evendently you never read On the Origin of  Species. Go get it, pay attention to natural selection part.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:05 | 2981774 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Severely autistic children could do better.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:09 | 2981794 akak
akak's picture

The difference between the two groups being ....?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 02:46 | 2983224 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Somebody(s) would get upset if you were to euthanize the children...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 03:48 | 2983257 Joe A
Joe A's picture

The children are not evil

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | 2981778 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Monty Python should consider suing the Troika for the silly jokes

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:36 | 2981883 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Monty Python made a film on the greek situation called "the twit olympics"  : It summarises the Troika antics perfectly.

Monty Python Twit Olympics - YouTube

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:47 | 2981908 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Brilliant, but Monty Python was first so they should still sue the Troika.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:11 | 2982787 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I favor Mr. Creosote. Feed the beast until it explodes. Give it the rope with which to hang itself /evil grin.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981781 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The sun'll come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:06 | 2981782 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

And yet they *still* believe their own bullshit.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:32 | 2981870 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Tera Patrick

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:03 | 2982102 brak
brak's picture

dat ass

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:07 | 2981785 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Notice how each time their projection gets steeper to the upside!!! LOL...

Maybe at some point it will be a straight line up!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:28 | 2981853 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Clearly it's not a forecast, it's targeting.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:39 | 2981888 Conman
Conman's picture

Yup, they are targeting the same thing in each forecast (0-1% GDP growth), gap is growing becuase gdp is shrinking at an increasing pace YoY. It will keep shrinking since all "austerity" has yet to be implemented and when it does watch for that cahert to go parobilic downward.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2981787 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Massive deflationary forces at work bitchez and no increasing energy supply available for the increasing amount of useless eaters around.  War it shall be then.  Hedge accordingly.


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:12 | 2981812 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

UE used to mean unemployment.

LOPdood has the new standard meaning for it now.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:22 | 2981841 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

There is no such thing as Fiat Deflation

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:24 | 2981848 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

correct,  fiat is only as good the faith and trust behind it.  Address the issue of moral hazard and so much of this shit fixes itself.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:31 | 2981869 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I knew shit was hazardous but I didn't know it was moral! 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2981813 akak
akak's picture

Define "deflation" then, because neither I, nor my wallet, are seeing it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2981823 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Deflation is defined as a 1.6% 10 year yield, and negative on shorter maturities in Germany.  How's that for a definition?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:23 | 2981845 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:31 | 2981859 akak
akak's picture

It is NOT, however, a steadily rising, ~5-6% rate of REAL inflation and accordingly rising cost of living, with the concommitant falling value of ordinary, fiat-denominated savings.  That is why I call "bullshit" on any specious claim that ANYONE in the world is suffering from so-called "deflation" today.  Funny how everyone in the political-financial establishment would like us to believe that we are, though --- thereby attempting to take away the onus of the responsibility for the pro-oligarchy monetary insanity which currently passes for "helping the economy" from those actually causing it.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:45 | 2981901 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

deflation: a rare and supposedly undesireable condition that central bankers use as an excuse to justify money printing (see 'the boogeyman')

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:30 | 2981866 falak pema
falak pema's picture

deflation is the opposite to what I feel when I see Julia Roberts in Pelican File. 

Albert Edwards's GF once described "deflation" to him during an intimate encounter : ...Is that it?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:25 | 2981852 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

See my post above, "flation" of both varieties is a human construct and the Laws of Nature and Physics really don't give a shit either way.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:20 | 2981838 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bernanke is going to hedge for me. He is going out guns blazing.

Does a PD bite it in this selloff? That would be something

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:26 | 2981857 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There will be a sacrafice.  my best guess is the one with the least exposure to asian markets.  The world is getting some new masters.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2981790 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Troika drinking game:

down a bottle of ouzo, attempt to use Birinyi's Ruler,    rinse, repeat


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 21:12 | 2982391 max2205
max2205's picture

And where was Ben for the last 2 weeks. Banks short and u lose

Nice of him

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2981803 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

Well at least their predictions are predictably shite! 

So I guess the real question for me is is this denial, incompetence, or part of some Goebbelian PR strategy? 



Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2981806 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The bankers are getting paid though....and isn't that what's really important?  Getting trickled on never felt better.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:14 | 2981817 Conman
Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:15 | 2981816 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Might make a pretty christmas ornament.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2981821 WinstonWolfe
WinstonWolfe's picture

This shit just has to stop....

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:16 | 2981822 WinstonWolfe
WinstonWolfe's picture

I mean when are they going to realise its all just quicksand economics?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:23 | 2981846 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The grifters understand the con, no worries.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:25 | 2981851 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

99% of us are in quick sand while the 1% are pleasuring each other

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:19 | 2981835 Madcow
Madcow's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:50 | 2983084 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Do you remember the good old times when computers would just listen and reboot?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:22 | 2981842 falak pema
falak pema's picture

what goes down must come up but not necessarily within the euro zone! 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:24 | 2981850 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Means shift over time....something many economists seem to conveniently forget.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:28 | 2981860 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Come on, cut them some slack. They were only off by a few measly points.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:35 | 2981879 PUD
PUD's picture

troika doom. greek "aid" delayed until full troika report can be read by Merkel..hahahahahhaa!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:36 | 2981881 augustus caesar
augustus caesar's picture

If you knew anything about their rail service you'd understand that no chart explanation is necessary as to why they're a joke.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:43 | 2981894 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Troika knows they(meaning Troika), are full of shit! For anyone that want's to know what Greece has to "Barter" with...

   CIA - The World Factbook,   /      The Greek page ;-)



Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:36 | 2982015 Mr Fix You Up Good
Mr Fix You Up Good's picture

No, its all Greekonomix over there in Troikastan....

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:45 | 2982272 venturen
venturen's picture

This is a great scam....just keep saying all the right things while you know there is no way your are going to pay anything! They are in the catbird seat. Unfortunately we are doing the same tihngs...except there is no one to bail us out!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:53 | 2982318 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

It's absolutely amazing to me how the bullshit in Europe just keeps on rolling after all this time. It's like a game of musical chairs, 10 players, 9 chairs, then while the music is playing the chairs are quietly removed one at a time until there's only one chair left. Then the music stops and yet they're still circling around to the imaginary music in their heads.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:36 | 2982884 SaveTheBales
SaveTheBales's picture

Maybe they can ALL secede and join Texas. 

The Texas leadership is similarly incompetent, but only meets every two years.  We let 'em stay for the summer, then run 'em outta Austin in time for football season.


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:08 | 2982542 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

The cliche question is for how much longer can fixing fraud with another fraud continue? Since that has become global electronic fiat money fraud, backed by atomic weapons, the answer continues to be astonishingly long! Since the social reality is the runaway triumph of those who were the best at being dishonest controlling civilization, we have watched that get astronomically amplified in size! Since those who were the best at being dishonest were routinely promoted, while those who told more truth were fired, we have watched while people like Bernanke in the USA, and the Troika in Europe, have a track record of being consistently, totally, wrong, with respect to every prediction that they have made ... Yet, nevertheless, since the real system is being controlled by those who were the best at dishonesty, and backing that up with violence, and those people thereby were constantly able to become more wealthy and powerful, we just keep on watching, and waiting, while asking for how much longer can fixing frauds with more frauds continue? 

Clearly, at the present time, the more wrong your prognostications are, the more likely that your career in politics will be advanced. Common sense that says you can not fix the problem of being too deep in debt by going still deeper into debt! BUT, that kind of "common sense" has absolutely no way to express itself inside of established systems that were BUILT ON THE FRAUD OF MAKING MONEY OUT OF NOTHING AS DEBTS, AND FORCING EVERYONE ELSE TO ACCEPT THAT!

Of course, I do not know that answer to that question of how much longer can more fraud be advanced as the "solution" to too much fraud in the past! The problem is that we have never had a system based on global electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs, before. There was NOTHING in human history to compare to this astronomically amplified social insanity, controlled by the Fraud Kings, who get promoted by being better professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, and whose careers are advanced by being WRONG, over and over again, to mind numbing and staggering levels!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:32 | 2982866 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Eventually, they will call the bottom. Economic activity can't go below zero.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:45 | 2983071 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Yes it can! I, am in no way insulting your "rational thinking"....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 01:54 | 2983179 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

"Austerity is code for a banking takeover" Chris Hedges

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 04:48 | 2983308 Debugas
Debugas's picture

GDP would be falling even if they simply tried to stabilize the total debt level (so that it does not continue to grow).

Trying to reduce (repay back to creditors) the total debt is insanity at this point

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:48 | 2983609 smacker
smacker's picture

The Troika's forcasting sklls are hilarious, as ZH says. Of course we all know *why* they are like that: regular bailouts would never have been granted without such ludicrous optimism.

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