This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Why The Troika's Forecasts Are A Total Joke In One Easy Chart
The remarkable forecasting skills of the Troika and the immense decisions being taken on the back of these 'sacrosanct' projections need to be put into context. We are more than happy to do that (as we did here - with hilarity ensuing), but the chart below shows even more clearly, so far so bad as the Troika has pretty much nailed it on the 'most optimistic mean-reverting model' ever. Not wanting to steal the jam from Europe's donut but the forecasts are - quite evidently - a complete and utter joke. Going forward though, we are sure it's different this time...
(h/t Follow The Money)
»
- 26147 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
fuck you bernanke and fuck you Troika
Fat man in Karl Rove mask disgusts 19 yr old college co-ed. "He fell down and drooled on my favorite shoes," Sasha Broadwell reported, "it was just disgusting." She went on to say that she was relieved when the mask slipped off, and she recognized him as the creepy guy who frequents the coffee shop where she works.
Are they outsourcing their forecasting to Jim Cramer by chance?
Beat me to it redpill. Maybe they are tag teaming with Tilson.
A simple extrapolation shows -15% Greek GDP in 2014
http://twitpic.com/bd8vjq
Do you think the Trokia would mind if I used that graph shape on the Left hand side as a X- section for a boat Hull I'm building. It would cut through almost anything including frozen seas.
I've name the boat "Titanic Errors"
2022 - LOLOLOL - this is NOT a joke (Juncker 11/13/12)
Juncker is also leaving this sinking ship early 2013.
They're all broke. PIIGS, UK, France and Germany. USA fiscal cliff. The money is drying up and revenues are collapsing from the Ural Mountains to the Balkans.
PRINT FEST is coming. Hallelujah!
We are well and truly TROIKERED!
Troika, a word from Stalinist Russia, and we use it in the free democratic world. Huh?
Bill McBride references ZH in passing in the interview posted on BI:
"You’ve been around long enough to know that there’s a whole industry of gloom and doom, that the ZeroHedge mentality kind of guys. I’m almost 50 years old. All my life there’s been people telling me that the world’s gonna end for this and that reason in the next few years....
I don’t think so, I think things are getting better in general. And there’s reasons for that."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-mcbride-of-calculated-risk-2012-11#ixzz2CsG4jhSU
Greece looks to be fucked for a good few more years.
Greece is fucked as long as they burn 400,000 barrels of Brent priced oil per day and watch as that amount of money (roughly 5% of GDP) flows out of the country.
Few more years? Try forever. How's forever sound?
My contrarian view is that Greece becomes part of Germany and both leave the Eurozone.
Match made in heaven. Opposites attract...so they say.
But, but, but... they can always sell islands and virgins, can't they?
There are virgins left in Greece?
Only extra-virgins.
All the greek girls are virgins...in the front....not so much in the back.
So evil. but we like it....
I don't buy that.
So far their model of restarting, borrowing more they can pay back and going bust has worked every single time. Yes, maybe they used to spend less oil, but that works to their advantage - they will find it even easier to go bust.
Once the country is completely robbed, they can simply stopped working.
What's the EU going to do? Kick them out?
Didn't the Greeks have an empire before electricity and oil?
The good old days will come back.
Even a blind squirrel will find a nut sooner or later
Unless eaten by a bird of prey of course.
Evendently you never read On the Origin of Species. Go get it, pay attention to natural selection part.
Severely autistic children could do better.
The difference between the two groups being ....?
Somebody(s) would get upset if you were to euthanize the children...
The children are not evil
Monty Python should consider suing the Troika for the silly jokes
Monty Python made a film on the greek situation called "the twit olympics" : It summarises the Troika antics perfectly.
Monty Python Twit Olympics - YouTube
Brilliant, but Monty Python was first so they should still sue the Troika.
I favor Mr. Creosote. Feed the beast until it explodes. Give it the rope with which to hang itself /evil grin.
The sun'll come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun.
And yet they *still* believe their own bullshit.
Tera Patrick
dat ass
Notice how each time their projection gets steeper to the upside!!! LOL...
Maybe at some point it will be a straight line up!
Clearly it's not a forecast, it's targeting.
Yup, they are targeting the same thing in each forecast (0-1% GDP growth), gap is growing becuase gdp is shrinking at an increasing pace YoY. It will keep shrinking since all "austerity" has yet to be implemented and when it does watch for that cahert to go parobilic downward.
Massive deflationary forces at work bitchez and no increasing energy supply available for the increasing amount of useless eaters around. War it shall be then. Hedge accordingly.
UE used to mean unemployment.
LOPdood has the new standard meaning for it now.
There is no such thing as Fiat Deflation
correct, fiat is only as good the faith and trust behind it. Address the issue of moral hazard and so much of this shit fixes itself.
I knew shit was hazardous but I didn't know it was moral!
Define "deflation" then, because neither I, nor my wallet, are seeing it.
Deflation is defined as a 1.6% 10 year yield, and negative on shorter maturities in Germany. How's that for a definition?
Pathetic
It is NOT, however, a steadily rising, ~5-6% rate of REAL inflation and accordingly rising cost of living, with the concommitant falling value of ordinary, fiat-denominated savings. That is why I call "bullshit" on any specious claim that ANYONE in the world is suffering from so-called "deflation" today. Funny how everyone in the political-financial establishment would like us to believe that we are, though --- thereby attempting to take away the onus of the responsibility for the pro-oligarchy monetary insanity which currently passes for "helping the economy" from those actually causing it.
deflation: a rare and supposedly undesireable condition that central bankers use as an excuse to justify money printing (see 'the boogeyman')
deflation is the opposite to what I feel when I see Julia Roberts in Pelican File.
Albert Edwards's GF once described "deflation" to him during an intimate encounter : ...Is that it?
See my post above, "flation" of both varieties is a human construct and the Laws of Nature and Physics really don't give a shit either way.
Bernanke is going to hedge for me. He is going out guns blazing.
Does a PD bite it in this selloff? That would be something
There will be a sacrafice. my best guess is the one with the least exposure to asian markets. The world is getting some new masters.
Troika drinking game:
down a bottle of ouzo, attempt to use Birinyi's Ruler, rinse, repeat
And where was Ben for the last 2 weeks. Banks short and u lose
Nice of him
Well at least their predictions are predictably shite!
So I guess the real question for me is is this denial, incompetence, or part of some Goebbelian PR strategy?
K@
The bankers are getting paid though....and isn't that what's really important? Getting trickled on never felt better.
Yes, zee German bankers more specifically.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-06/german-banks-top-french-on-2...
Might make a pretty christmas ornament.
This shit just has to stop....
I mean when are they going to realise its all just quicksand economics?
The grifters understand the con, no worries.
99% of us are in quick sand while the 1% are pleasuring each other
CTRL + ALT + DEL
Do you remember the good old times when computers would just listen and reboot?
what goes down must come up but not necessarily within the euro zone!
Means shift over time....something many economists seem to conveniently forget.
Come on, cut them some slack. They were only off by a few measly points.
troika doom. greek "aid" delayed until full troika report can be read by Merkel..hahahahahhaa!
If you knew anything about their rail service you'd understand that no chart explanation is necessary as to why they're a joke.
Troika knows they(meaning Troika), are full of shit! For anyone that want's to know what Greece has to "Barter" with...
CIA - The World Factbook, / The Greek page ;-)
No, its all Greekonomix over there in Troikastan....
This is a great scam....just keep saying all the right things while you know there is no way your are going to pay anything! They are in the catbird seat. Unfortunately we are doing the same tihngs...except there is no one to bail us out!
It's absolutely amazing to me how the bullshit in Europe just keeps on rolling after all this time. It's like a game of musical chairs, 10 players, 9 chairs, then while the music is playing the chairs are quietly removed one at a time until there's only one chair left. Then the music stops and yet they're still circling around to the imaginary music in their heads.
Maybe they can ALL secede and join Texas.
The Texas leadership is similarly incompetent, but only meets every two years. We let 'em stay for the summer, then run 'em outta Austin in time for football season.
The cliche question is for how much longer can fixing fraud with another fraud continue? Since that has become global electronic fiat money fraud, backed by atomic weapons, the answer continues to be astonishingly long! Since the social reality is the runaway triumph of those who were the best at being dishonest controlling civilization, we have watched that get astronomically amplified in size! Since those who were the best at being dishonest were routinely promoted, while those who told more truth were fired, we have watched while people like Bernanke in the USA, and the Troika in Europe, have a track record of being consistently, totally, wrong, with respect to every prediction that they have made ... Yet, nevertheless, since the real system is being controlled by those who were the best at dishonesty, and backing that up with violence, and those people thereby were constantly able to become more wealthy and powerful, we just keep on watching, and waiting, while asking for how much longer can fixing frauds with more frauds continue?
Clearly, at the present time, the more wrong your prognostications are, the more likely that your career in politics will be advanced. Common sense that says you can not fix the problem of being too deep in debt by going still deeper into debt! BUT, that kind of "common sense" has absolutely no way to express itself inside of established systems that were BUILT ON THE FRAUD OF MAKING MONEY OUT OF NOTHING AS DEBTS, AND FORCING EVERYONE ELSE TO ACCEPT THAT!
Of course, I do not know that answer to that question of how much longer can more fraud be advanced as the "solution" to too much fraud in the past! The problem is that we have never had a system based on global electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs, before. There was NOTHING in human history to compare to this astronomically amplified social insanity, controlled by the Fraud Kings, who get promoted by being better professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, and whose careers are advanced by being WRONG, over and over again, to mind numbing and staggering levels!
Eventually, they will call the bottom. Economic activity can't go below zero.
Yes it can! I, am in no way insulting your "rational thinking"....
"Austerity is code for a banking takeover" Chris Hedges
GDP would be falling even if they simply tried to stabilize the total debt level (so that it does not continue to grow).
Trying to reduce (repay back to creditors) the total debt is insanity at this point
The Troika's forcasting sklls are hilarious, as ZH says. Of course we all know *why* they are like that: regular bailouts would never have been granted without such ludicrous optimism.