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The Election Is Over And Philly Fed Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Let's see if Bush Sandy can be blamed for not only the Empire Fed, whose employment and expectations components plunged, for the Initial Claims, which soared and missed expectations by the second most in the past 13 years, but also for the Philly Fed, which just plunged from 5.7 to -10.7, far below consensus of 2.0, the 6th miss of the last 8 (except for last month of course), and returning to solidly negative territory after last month's "miraculous" pre-election surge. And while virtually all subcomponents plunged, the one that stood out to the upside was Prices Paid, as the margin collapse is set to ravage all companies not only in the greater Philadelphia region but everywhere else soon as reality, deferred for the duration of the Obama reelection campaign, slams everyone in the stomach.

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, to a reading of ?10.7. The fallback of the general activity index followed a single positive reading in October that was preceded by five negative monthly readings (see Chart). Nearly 32 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, while 21 percent reported increases. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, declined 4 points from last month and remains in negative territory.

 

Shipments  also fell this month: The current shipments index fell 7 points, to ?6.7. Declines in inventories were also more widespread this  month; 31 percent of firms reported declines compared with 21 percent in October. Labor market conditions at the reporting firms remained weak this month. The current employment index, at ?6.8, was slightly improved from its negative reading in October (?10.7) but has remained negative for five consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (20 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (13 percent). Firms also indicated fewer hours worked: The average workweek index was virtually unchanged but posted its eighth consecutive negative reading.

 

Price Indexes Drift Higher

 

The indexes for prices paid for purchased inputs and for prices received for respondents’ own manufactured goods moved higher this month. The prices paid index increased from 19.0 to 27.9, but the increase was attributable to fewer firms reporting lower prices rather than more firms reporting price increases. With respect to their own manufactured goods, the percentage reporting an increase in product prices (16 percent) was greater than the percent reporting a decrease (10 percent). The prices received index increased marginally, from 5.4  to 6.3.

And here is why the combined Empire and Philly Fed diffusion indices spell pain for the upcoming ISM print (courtesy of John Lohman):

 

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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2984017 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Take five. Smokem if ya gotem

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2984018 tsx500
tsx500's picture

FOWARD !

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2984195 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

... aaaaaand the market rallies on the news utilizing the new "rinse and repeat" algo

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2984020 marz929
marz929's picture

Where is Jon Corzine?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2984031 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

He's got to be either under arrest.....or in prison.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2984023 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Even people who scoff at "conspriacy theories" must be blushing.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:24 | 2984069 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Nah. They just don't talk about it.. or conveniently forget that you and I ever brought those up. They'll remember inbetween though to make fun of you and call you a conspiracy theorist.  Then when this collapse/sharp biflation/reset comes.. they will claim they literally never saw it coming.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:32 | 2984104 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The Barney Frank explanation for the housing crash.  "Nobody ever saw it coming."

Even though there are congressional hearing tapes of Barney bashing some peon accountant for trying to bring down the boom by even suggesting there was a bubble.

 

But the sheeple are stupid so the playbook never gets old.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:52 | 2984192 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

You can listen to him talk more about how he "didn't see it coming" and how Dodd Frank has solved most of the ills of 2008 from when he spoke yesterday at "Newseum".  I'm not even kidding.. I saw this late last night on C-SPAN:

 

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/RepBar&showFullAbstract=1

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:27 | 2984347 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Wow,he can tie his own shoe laces!impressive and no nose picking.

'No one would have been indicted since Ponzi with out emails"

He reminds me of Porky Pig.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2985511 madcows
madcows's picture

he was too busy smoking pot and hanging out with HotPants.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:00 | 2984238 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

I blame Romney, that devious SOB.

Thank God we voted in the Supreme Savior of the Universe, Bronco Bamma, otherwise we would be in serious trouble...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2984025 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No question at all things are unravelling post election, but let's take a step back here and ask ourselves . . . does the Obamaphone lady monitor the Philly Fed report to tell her how to vote?

 

Would anyone at the Philly Fed think they can move even 2 votes, let alone 100,000?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:22 | 2984055 adr
adr's picture

Obamaphone lady says:

I's betta gets my Obamahouse. Dat promised to me by Obama. Get me dat Obamacar too. That why we vote fo him. He gets us. He gets us shit. Go Obama, let me kill white people too. Yeah, drive on sidewalks, run overs white kids. YEAH OBAMA!!!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2984028 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

yet we are higher..qe4??

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2984029 madcows
madcows's picture

59 voting precincts, not one Romney vote.  They got what they vote-frauded for.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:18 | 2984038 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The math was impossible....but they pulled it off.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:26 | 2984084 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Remember when the MSM (translation = state run med in the USSA) made a big deal over how fraudulent Sadam's last "election" was because he got 99% of the vote.  If he were alive, he would blush at the new marxist 100 percenters.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:25 | 2984079 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

What's the equivilent of the Ministry of Truth in America? The White House Press Corps? Journ-O-List? Council on Foreign Relations?...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2984096 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Call an eCONomist and tell him or her how much you appreciate the good work they are doing for our nation.

Phone: (888) 851-1920

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/economists/

 

Loretta J. Mester
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

George Alessandria
Macroeconomics

Roc Armenter
Macroeconomics

Marina Azzimonti
Macroeconomics

Mitchell Berlin
Banking, Section Head

Jeffrey Brinkman
Regional and Microeconomics

Gerald A. Carlino
Regional and Microeconomics

Satyajit Chatterjee
Macroeconomics

Michael Dotsey
Monetary Policy

Ronel Elul
Banking

Burcu Eyigungor
Macroeconomics

Shigeru Fujita
Macroeconomics

Pablo Guerron
Macroeconomics

Yaron Leitner
Banking

Benjamin Lester
Banking

Wenli Li
Banking

Jeffrey Lin
Regional and Microeconomics

Makoto Nakajima
Macroeconomics

Leonard Nakamura
Regional and Microeconomics, Section Head

James M. Nason
Macroeconomics, Section Head

Daniel Sanches
Banking

Keith Sill
Macroeconomics

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:43 | 2984164 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

The thing is I'd really like to get in touch with the real E-con leaders that make the real and 'tough' decisions in this country, and with my witty words express my glad tidings and feelings of gratitude to them for waking me up to the stenching bullshit of all-around central planning and artifically pumping our economy and markets.  I'd like to start with Ben "S" Bernank, Timothy Jeethner, and that moose Chris-tina Romer.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:56 | 2984179 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Yeah, well, start here.

Direct Philly Phone: 215-574-6000

Use the dial by name feature and pick three from the list above.

You will feel better for several days.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2984125 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yes. Keep going there's a few more.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2984034 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Unelect them.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:18 | 2984037 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well, you see... Since Romney lost, there will be no need to replace the spinning hubcaps the Choom/Beast wagon... Manufacturing will take a hit...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2984091 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

You can still come inside though and take some "roof hits" till the numbers make sense.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:19 | 2984043 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

This explains ES ramp.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:19 | 2984046 Conman
Conman's picture

Are we back to bad news means more QE?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:20 | 2984048 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Joe Biden- "The economy has been a disaster the past 4 years"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:21 | 2984053 larz
larz's picture

Kevin buddy still rolling sevens at the NY Fed

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:51 | 2984057 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Yep, I'll be waiting for this to be discussed throughly on CNBC, hopefully reaching a constructive conclusion over how to revive manufacturing again in the S. Jersey/SE Penn./Delaware areas.. </sarc>

 

Speaking of which, late last night before falling asleep I was watching C-SPAN on a segment of "Newseum" (I don't know what that is.. don't ask) which I suppose is about journalists from various cable networks interviewing people they like.  Last night, I saw one of the CNBC anchors interview Barney Frank, and he was giving the low-down on Dodd-Frank, and how TBTF institutions don't exist in America anymore.  He also predicted that 'Obamacare' in this country when fully implemented would be very popular to the American people.. etc. etc.  I wish I had a link to all the bullshit he spewed.

 

EDIT: It took a 3 second search on google to find a link to the video I watched.. here.. the 'journalist' asking the question is CNBC and The Atlantic's own Aaron Ross Sorkin.  And Tyler(s) if you don't mind, please share:

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/RepBar&showFullAbstract=1

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:22 | 2984062 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

/ES is volatile 10 point swings and steep angles.   i put on a long at 52 last night, left it and have seen it go negative and back positive 5 times.  think i might liquidate with a little coin, see what it does at 1358, if she breaks north will probably hold.

 

this market looks a lot like october of 08.  steep, steep angles.  if you start seeing triple ku kluks klan hats,  put on a short and hold on for dear life.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:23 | 2984065 khotel
khotel's picture

Cheesesteak misery index. Maybe M Vick can create some startups while he's watching another QB get playing time.

 

Bullish!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:23 | 2984066 larz
larz's picture

Joe Biden 2016 "I inherited this mess" as so eloquently stated on an earlier ZH and plagerized here in this post

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:25 | 2984068 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

spx @ 1360

DON'T COVER SHORTS, YET!!! WAIT for 1430+ THEN you cover your losses or nice FAT $HORT gains after they become nice small gains....spx on QE3 = 1460, day after 1474 = i called it the TOP.

i covered some at 1384 and now @ 1360..for a PHAT GAIN.  Also shorted eur @ 1.315, covered all at 1.272 (same day i covered my spx 1450 shorts @ 1384)....eur then dropped to 1.268...NOW its at 1.278....LOL !!! = niiiiiiiiiiice !!!!

casino is ready for the major pop to spx 1430, eur to 1.29+, don't say you weren't warned performance chasing SHORTS....just like I warned the QE3 perfomance chasing bulls @ spx 1474...i posted here at ZH and called it the TOP...now I'm calling i the bottom @ 1360 or so.....could of been lower today, but just woke up here in CA @ 0715 PST = 1015 EST.

cheers

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:33 | 2984107 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

know where you're coming from muppet.  covered a short from 1387 at close yesterday. 1351,  then did my magic chart study, chicken wings, voodoo and hoodoo and all kinds of weird shit study. and put on a long /es at 1352,  methinks we bounce to the fib.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:39 | 2984140 pods
pods's picture

You seem to be a strange reminder of doc_in_the_house or similar username who had to show us continually how good you were?

I remember you seemed to drop off the scene after some fantastic trades then doubled down on your amazing skill, only to have your face ripped off in a 6 month rally.

Of course if I am mistaken, I apologize.

pods

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:05 | 2984256 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

i shorted spx @ 1390

1430, 1474 = AVERAGE SHORT PRICE = 1450....DIDN'T COVER @ 1474 = day after QE3...my avg position = 1450

covered half @ 1384 and rest today @ 1360....so avg = 1370......

1450-1370 = nice phat percentage....i hope those stupid daytraders didn't miss their "3 month rally" NOT 6 month !! 1450-1370 = nice phat % and spent about 2 hr /week "monitoring" casino !! LOL !!!!

now scaling in some long positions....1360, 1354 and will wait for 1340..= which may or MAY NOT come

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:07 | 2984274 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

apology accepted, have always been stormsailor.  and have traded for about 6 years.  i'm only down 900k this year, but i'm charging into the end of the year.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:32 | 2984360 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

 i was a born-again ZH blogger

meaning that I set up a new blog name bc ZH had deleted my old account as doc_in_the_house...no reason given, but i imagine it was because i was drawing in lots of thumbs down from other ZH bloggers....they didn't like me bragging about my trades....its not my fault some folks are performance chasing fools.

if they delete it again, won't re-sign up.

anyways, time to enjoy life...= NOT watch casino every second...watch only 20 minutes/day throught the day...just like when i scaled in SHORTS @ 1390-1474...avg price 1450 and covered half @ 1384 last week and today @ 1360.  Scaled in some longs @ 1360, 1354 and will wait for 1340, which may or may not come...i know a major pop is coming to 1430.. euro is already popping, since last week, when i announced i was covering my eur 1.315 shorts @ 1.272, its now @ 1.279

cheers

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:31 | 2984365 pods
pods's picture

My comment was not to you, it was a comment to muppet_master/doc_in_the_house.

pods

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:25 | 2984076 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Colbert Report on HFTs:

http://t.co/NrcG3xZX
Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:26 | 2984081 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Paint eventually falls off of rust

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:33 | 2984113 youngman
youngman's picture

expectations.......the expectors did not know about Sandy I guess...because they missed big...Prices paid up big too......oh boy....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2984116 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Come guys. Stop with the negative vibes. We have Obamacare.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:36 | 2984123 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SPX actually rises 5 handles...

Gotta love this crooked shit.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:35 | 2984124 ekm
ekm's picture

The 25% who voted for the current president and the 50% who did NOT vote (thus do NOT oppose the policies of the current president) have been promised by the current president that everything will be provided and they don't have to work.

 

There is no more reason for any index to go higher since the president will provide and the american do not need to work.

Conclusion:

Do not worry if all indices go down. The president will provide.

 

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:37 | 2984135 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i wish the markets would put the no short sale back on financials like 08.  god what a wonderful way to make money.   when you saw it break south, short it.  make a ton,  there were no shorts on the financials so you had these huge long 30 to 40 point swings in the /es.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:39 | 2984138 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

WHEEEEE!!!

 

When exactly does this rollercoaster fall into the Atlantic? I'd like to get off before then.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:39 | 2984142 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You can't kill this bull with facts.  It is like trying to win in Afghanistan.  The money just keeps coming at you from every crack and crevice.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:39 | 2984146 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

and couch cushions.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:40 | 2984148 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

for those interested in proof of REAL inflation, have a look at the linked pdf - its in german, gives countless examples of hidden inflation in consumer products, mostly by reductions in volume, mass or quantity of product in the past 2 years

price increases of 30 to 50% are not uncommon

ttp://www.vzhh.de/ernaehrung/32535/Versteckte%20Preiserhoehungen.pdf

...official statistics reflect only 2 to 3% annual inflation?

massive lies!!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:48 | 2984190 madcows
madcows's picture

I've got it at 11.4% YoY.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:29 | 2984357 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

makes me wonder whether they adjust for quantity of product sold when they report CPI and PPI numbers

because that's what is been going on for the past 2-3 years: sell smaller quantity for same or higher price - most consumers think it's same price they pay, while their shopping carriage contains less and less for the same amount purchased

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:02 | 2984249 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Can't wait for the NFPs. Back to normal service for the ministry of truth!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:06 | 2984266 sbenard
sbenard's picture

THIS is the kind of news I come here for! Thanks!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:14 | 2984305 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

So we have these items unbelievably coming out 7 days after election:

1. Petraeus scandal

2. Philly Fed plunge

3. Unemployment surge

4. Retail sales plunge

5. Israel attacking all fronts

6. Europe riots and collapse

7. Japan economy collapse

8. FHA and USPS bankruptcies...

Think you don't live in a banana republic?  Chavez is blushing

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:39 | 2984405 Rentenmark
Rentenmark's picture

How can the Philly Fed plunge when we just had Hurricane Sandy?  This should be booming due to all the broken windows that need replacement.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 14:23 | 2984847 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

So, we are headed in the right direction, right?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2985482 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

JON CORZINE FOR PRESIDENT!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!