The Election Is Over And Philly Fed Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture

Let's see if Bush Sandy can be blamed for not only the Empire Fed, whose employment and expectations components plunged, for the Initial Claims, which soared and missed expectations by the second most in the past 13 years, but also for the Philly Fed, which just plunged from 5.7 to -10.7, far below consensus of 2.0, the 6th miss of the last 8 (except for last month of course), and returning to solidly negative territory after last month's "miraculous" pre-election surge. And while virtually all subcomponents plunged, the one that stood out to the upside was Prices Paid, as the margin collapse is set to ravage all companies not only in the greater Philadelphia region but everywhere else soon as reality, deferred for the duration of the Obama reelection campaign, slams everyone in the stomach.

From the report:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, to a reading of ?10.7. The fallback of the general activity index followed a single positive reading in October that was preceded by five negative monthly readings (see Chart). Nearly 32 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, while 21 percent reported increases. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, declined 4 points from last month and remains in negative territory.


Shipments  also fell this month: The current shipments index fell 7 points, to ?6.7. Declines in inventories were also more widespread this  month; 31 percent of firms reported declines compared with 21 percent in October. Labor market conditions at the reporting firms remained weak this month. The current employment index, at ?6.8, was slightly improved from its negative reading in October (?10.7) but has remained negative for five consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (20 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (13 percent). Firms also indicated fewer hours worked: The average workweek index was virtually unchanged but posted its eighth consecutive negative reading.


Price Indexes Drift Higher


The indexes for prices paid for purchased inputs and for prices received for respondents’ own manufactured goods moved higher this month. The prices paid index increased from 19.0 to 27.9, but the increase was attributable to fewer firms reporting lower prices rather than more firms reporting price increases. With respect to their own manufactured goods, the percentage reporting an increase in product prices (16 percent) was greater than the percent reporting a decrease (10 percent). The prices received index increased marginally, from 5.4  to 6.3.

And here is why the combined Empire and Philly Fed diffusion indices spell pain for the upcoming ISM print (courtesy of John Lohman):

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GetZeeGold's picture



Take five. Smokem if ya gotem

aint no fortunate son's picture

... aaaaaand the market rallies on the news utilizing the new "rinse and repeat" algo

marz929's picture

Where is Jon Corzine?

GetZeeGold's picture



He's got to be either under arrest.....or in prison.

Cursive's picture

Even people who scoff at "conspriacy theories" must be blushing.

Tsunami Wave's picture

Nah. They just don't talk about it.. or conveniently forget that you and I ever brought those up. They'll remember inbetween though to make fun of you and call you a conspiracy theorist.  Then when this collapse/sharp biflation/reset comes.. they will claim they literally never saw it coming.

insanelysane's picture

The Barney Frank explanation for the housing crash.  "Nobody ever saw it coming."

Even though there are congressional hearing tapes of Barney bashing some peon accountant for trying to bring down the boom by even suggesting there was a bubble.


But the sheeple are stupid so the playbook never gets old.

Tsunami Wave's picture

You can listen to him talk more about how he "didn't see it coming" and how Dodd Frank has solved most of the ills of 2008 from when he spoke yesterday at "Newseum".  I'm not even kidding.. I saw this late last night on C-SPAN:

Lord Blankcheck's picture

Wow,he can tie his own shoe laces!impressive and no nose picking.

'No one would have been indicted since Ponzi with out emails"

He reminds me of Porky Pig.

madcows's picture

he was too busy smoking pot and hanging out with HotPants.

James-Morrison's picture

I blame Romney, that devious SOB.

Thank God we voted in the Supreme Savior of the Universe, Bronco Bamma, otherwise we would be in serious trouble...

CrashisOptimistic's picture

No question at all things are unravelling post election, but let's take a step back here and ask ourselves . . . does the Obamaphone lady monitor the Philly Fed report to tell her how to vote?


Would anyone at the Philly Fed think they can move even 2 votes, let alone 100,000?

adr's picture

Obamaphone lady says:

I's betta gets my Obamahouse. Dat promised to me by Obama. Get me dat Obamacar too. That why we vote fo him. He gets us. He gets us shit. Go Obama, let me kill white people too. Yeah, drive on sidewalks, run overs white kids. YEAH OBAMA!!!

mrktwtch2's picture

yet we are higher..qe4??

madcows's picture

59 voting precincts, not one Romney vote.  They got what they vote-frauded for.

GetZeeGold's picture



The math was impossible....but they pulled it off.

nodhannum's picture

Remember when the MSM (translation = state run med in the USSA) made a big deal over how fraudulent Sadam's last "election" was because he got 99% of the vote.  If he were alive, he would blush at the new marxist 100 percenters.

Tsunami Wave's picture

What's the equivilent of the Ministry of Truth in America? The White House Press Corps? Journ-O-List? Council on Foreign Relations?...

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Call an eCONomist and tell him or her how much you appreciate the good work they are doing for our nation.

Phone: (888) 851-1920


Loretta J. Mester
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

George Alessandria

Roc Armenter

Marina Azzimonti

Mitchell Berlin
Banking, Section Head

Jeffrey Brinkman
Regional and Microeconomics

Gerald A. Carlino
Regional and Microeconomics

Satyajit Chatterjee

Michael Dotsey
Monetary Policy

Ronel Elul

Burcu Eyigungor

Shigeru Fujita

Pablo Guerron

Yaron Leitner

Benjamin Lester

Wenli Li

Jeffrey Lin
Regional and Microeconomics

Makoto Nakajima

Leonard Nakamura
Regional and Microeconomics, Section Head

James M. Nason
Macroeconomics, Section Head

Daniel Sanches

Keith Sill

Tsunami Wave's picture

The thing is I'd really like to get in touch with the real E-con leaders that make the real and 'tough' decisions in this country, and with my witty words express my glad tidings and feelings of gratitude to them for waking me up to the stenching bullshit of all-around central planning and artifically pumping our economy and markets.  I'd like to start with Ben "S" Bernank, Timothy Jeethner, and that moose Chris-tina Romer.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Yeah, well, start here.

Direct Philly Phone: 215-574-6000

Use the dial by name feature and pick three from the list above.

You will feel better for several days.

RSloane's picture

Yes. Keep going there's a few more.

francis_sawyer's picture

Well, you see... Since Romney lost, there will be no need to replace the spinning hubcaps the Choom/Beast wagon... Manufacturing will take a hit...

Tsunami Wave's picture

You can still come inside though and take some "roof hits" till the numbers make sense.

Bold Eagle's picture

This explains ES ramp.

Conman's picture

Are we back to bad news means more QE?

azzhatter's picture

Joe Biden- "The economy has been a disaster the past 4 years"

larz's picture

Kevin buddy still rolling sevens at the NY Fed

Tsunami Wave's picture

Yep, I'll be waiting for this to be discussed throughly on CNBC, hopefully reaching a constructive conclusion over how to revive manufacturing again in the S. Jersey/SE Penn./Delaware areas.. </sarc>


Speaking of which, late last night before falling asleep I was watching C-SPAN on a segment of "Newseum" (I don't know what that is.. don't ask) which I suppose is about journalists from various cable networks interviewing people they like.  Last night, I saw one of the CNBC anchors interview Barney Frank, and he was giving the low-down on Dodd-Frank, and how TBTF institutions don't exist in America anymore.  He also predicted that 'Obamacare' in this country when fully implemented would be very popular to the American people.. etc. etc.  I wish I had a link to all the bullshit he spewed.


EDIT: It took a 3 second search on google to find a link to the video I watched.. here.. the 'journalist' asking the question is CNBC and The Atlantic's own Aaron Ross Sorkin.  And Tyler(s) if you don't mind, please share:

stormsailor's picture

/ES is volatile 10 point swings and steep angles.   i put on a long at 52 last night, left it and have seen it go negative and back positive 5 times.  think i might liquidate with a little coin, see what it does at 1358, if she breaks north will probably hold.


this market looks a lot like october of 08.  steep, steep angles.  if you start seeing triple ku kluks klan hats,  put on a short and hold on for dear life.

khotel's picture

Cheesesteak misery index. Maybe M Vick can create some startups while he's watching another QB get playing time.



larz's picture

Joe Biden 2016 "I inherited this mess" as so eloquently stated on an earlier ZH and plagerized here in this post

muppet_master's picture

spx @ 1360

DON'T COVER SHORTS, YET!!! WAIT for 1430+ THEN you cover your losses or nice FAT $HORT gains after they become nice small gains....spx on QE3 = 1460, day after 1474 = i called it the TOP.

i covered some at 1384 and now @ 1360..for a PHAT GAIN.  Also shorted eur @ 1.315, covered all at 1.272 (same day i covered my spx 1450 shorts @ 1384)....eur then dropped to 1.268...NOW its at 1.278....LOL !!! = niiiiiiiiiiice !!!!

casino is ready for the major pop to spx 1430, eur to 1.29+, don't say you weren't warned performance chasing SHORTS....just like I warned the QE3 perfomance chasing bulls @ spx 1474...i posted here at ZH and called it the I'm calling i the bottom @ 1360 or so.....could of been lower today, but just woke up here in CA @ 0715 PST = 1015 EST.


stormsailor's picture

know where you're coming from muppet.  covered a short from 1387 at close yesterday. 1351,  then did my magic chart study, chicken wings, voodoo and hoodoo and all kinds of weird shit study. and put on a long /es at 1352,  methinks we bounce to the fib.

pods's picture

You seem to be a strange reminder of doc_in_the_house or similar username who had to show us continually how good you were?

I remember you seemed to drop off the scene after some fantastic trades then doubled down on your amazing skill, only to have your face ripped off in a 6 month rally.

Of course if I am mistaken, I apologize.


muppet_master's picture

i shorted spx @ 1390

1430, 1474 = AVERAGE SHORT PRICE = 1450....DIDN'T COVER @ 1474 = day after avg position = 1450

covered half @ 1384 and rest today @ avg = 1370......

1450-1370 = nice phat percentage....i hope those stupid daytraders didn't miss their "3 month rally" NOT 6 month !! 1450-1370 = nice phat % and spent about 2 hr /week "monitoring" casino !! LOL !!!!

now scaling in some long positions....1360, 1354 and will wait for 1340..= which may or MAY NOT come

stormsailor's picture

apology accepted, have always been stormsailor.  and have traded for about 6 years.  i'm only down 900k this year, but i'm charging into the end of the year.

muppet_master's picture

 i was a born-again ZH blogger

meaning that I set up a new blog name bc ZH had deleted my old account as reason given, but i imagine it was because i was drawing in lots of thumbs down from other ZH bloggers....they didn't like me bragging about my trades....its not my fault some folks are performance chasing fools.

if they delete it again, won't re-sign up.

anyways, time to enjoy life...= NOT watch casino every only 20 minutes/day throught the day...just like when i scaled in SHORTS @ 1390-1474...avg price 1450 and covered half @ 1384 last week and today @ 1360.  Scaled in some longs @ 1360, 1354 and will wait for 1340, which may or may not come...i know a major pop is coming to 1430.. euro is already popping, since last week, when i announced i was covering my eur 1.315 shorts @ 1.272, its now @ 1.279


pods's picture

My comment was not to you, it was a comment to muppet_master/doc_in_the_house.


GolfHatesMe's picture

Paint eventually falls off of rust

youngman's picture

expectations.......the expectors did not know about Sandy I guess...because they missed big...Prices paid up big too......oh boy....

BraveSirRobin's picture

Come guys. Stop with the negative vibes. We have Obamacare.

Boilermaker's picture

SPX actually rises 5 handles...

Gotta love this crooked shit.

ekm's picture

The 25% who voted for the current president and the 50% who did NOT vote (thus do NOT oppose the policies of the current president) have been promised by the current president that everything will be provided and they don't have to work.


There is no more reason for any index to go higher since the president will provide and the american do not need to work.


Do not worry if all indices go down. The president will provide.



stormsailor's picture

i wish the markets would put the no short sale back on financials like 08.  god what a wonderful way to make money.   when you saw it break south, short it.  make a ton,  there were no shorts on the financials so you had these huge long 30 to 40 point swings in the /es.

catacl1sm's picture



When exactly does this rollercoaster fall into the Atlantic? I'd like to get off before then.