• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Goldman's Swirlogram Confirms Economic Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture


It would seem that the downswing into this economic slowdown has been considerably faster than many expected (as it always seems to be). Since we first introduced Goldman's Swirlogram indicator the business cycle (in May 2012), helped by the promise more and more liquidity, we have rotated remarkably from slowdown to contraction to recovery to expansion and now - in November - the leading indicators are pointing to a rapid shift into a slowdown phase. The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is losing momentum fast and has made lower cycle highs each time since the 2009 'recovery' began. While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing.


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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2985416 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

The only swirl I see is our economy circling the drain...


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985461 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Mon Dieu! But how can this be? There are still a couple of resources left on the planet that have not been wasted. Surely there is room for more growth.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2985500 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Like the movement of a stripper: when she gets closer to the pole you know shes going down.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2985505 Kitler
Kitler's picture

That is clearly the northern hemispheric chart.

In the southern hemisphere the toilet bowl circles counterclockwise as it flushes.


(Still not sure why Nov-6 wasn't the turd)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:15 | 2985878 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
Fed to Test Banks Based on Severe Recession


western elites try to contain china with global recession.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 20:15 | 2986262 Keegan11
Keegan11's picture

Dalago - well played sir! That made me laugh out loud

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2985506 onelight
onelight's picture

I think the Bosley hair care technology for growing-in bald spots may be helpful here..just a thought.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2985512 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



My fuckyou-ogram says, "eat shit and die Goldman"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:11 | 2985869 SecondComing
SecondComing's picture

Well, I see an economic gyre, spiraling towards an inevitable singularity.  An econo-gyre, one might call it.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2985420 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Flush it !

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985460 Alhazred
Alhazred's picture

The only way to stop the flow is to stop the Federal Reserve and get back on a metal standard.





Thu, 11/15/2012 - 23:53 | 2986716 DjRonnieG
DjRonnieG's picture

I didn't realize there was a free-market writer named Thomas Sole. I've only know of a Thomas Sowell, a name that is not on the petition.

Mispelling a name on a petition will not help to advance the cause promoted by the petition.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2985421 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

somewhere somehow a muppet is getting set up for a face rip by one of the 70 new "patnuz"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985452 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

swirlogram? Who makes that? Whammo or Popeil?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985456 centerline
centerline's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2985423 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Love me the swirlogram.

Love it!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2985424 HD
HD's picture

I no chartist but that sure looks fibonacci to me...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2985523 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture



Singularity, bitchez!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2985425 bania
bania's picture

apparently this swirls the other direction if you're in Australia

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 21:04 | 2986372 Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

...envision whirled peas..

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2985430 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The vertex in the middle of the chart is supposed to represent the drain, right?

Anyway, how are we supposed to profit from this?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985474 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Show it to your girlfriend after a few drinks... then "panic sex"!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2985486 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I just realized...it looks like all problems will be solved when we finally hit the middle of the chart.  We'll be in expansion and contraction at the SAME TIME.  Sweet.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:09 | 2985621 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Actually, if you're familiar with the concept of angular momentum, this is pretty interesting. Angular momentum is the product of mass x velocity x radius. Here, the mass is money supply, and the velocity is how fast we spend money. Despite massive increases in money supply, velocity is slowing even more rapidly so that angular momentum is decreasing. As we approach the origin, it will take even more massive amounts of money to make up for the dramatic fall in velocity (as everyone realizes AAPL isn't going to $5,000 but gold is) until, as velocity reaches zero, the money supply must become infinite!

Zimbabwe leads the way! Hyperinflation, bitchez!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:45 | 2985772 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Yeah, at singularity, we'll all suffocate under massive piles of FRNs. 

Oh the humanity!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:03 | 2986046 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Lol and yep.

infinite money supply being QE to infinity and beyond.

For an orbiting satellite around a little crummy planet with gravity as the force of attraction "still pulling it in".

Suggests to me that the total value so far created may have slowed the rate of collapse but it is still a crash trajectory.



Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2985432 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

my economy never sped up, though the prick has gotten more expensive

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2985443 centerline
centerline's picture

Goldman gives us a swirlie?  Yeah.  That feels about right.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2985448 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Looks like a GS turd(no offense TF) about to go down a toilet

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985450 Madcow
Madcow's picture

30+ years of steadily increaisng savagery and never-ending collapse.  

all becuase a handful of central bankers refuse to admit they were wrong.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:30 | 2985470 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I don't think we've seen anything yet.  

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985457 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Where's the PPT with the net?  Rescue some floaters!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:40 | 2985513 onelight
onelight's picture

Might be more like the doodie scare scene in Caddyshack..

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2985514 kralizec
kralizec's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985471 e-man
e-man's picture

If that were a Rorschach blot, I'd say the snake is eating its tail (just like the economy).

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:49 | 2985538 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

...snake is eating its tail ... this is how a Ponzi scheme comes to an end.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985473 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I got that.

All in one easy to understand chart!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985475 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

it's over

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2985484 recidivist
recidivist's picture

Death Spiral?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:34 | 2985487 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Isn't that the floorplan for the new JCP stores?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:35 | 2985492 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2985499 e-recep
e-recep's picture

we had a dead cat bounce during the 2009-2011 period. i wonder whether the dead cat would bounce for a second time?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:43 | 2985520 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Get in there Kevin!!!! Nice Job Buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2985522 e-man
e-man's picture

If anyone can do it, Kevin can!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:46 | 2985527 kralizec
kralizec's picture

1353, he's working hard to save his phony balony job!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:46 | 2985526 gamera9
gamera9's picture

See if we lived in the southern hemisphere things would be going great.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985531 kralizec
kralizec's picture

...or is that the bottom of the drain?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985532 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Big Day for Kev. Big day. If Kev can get apple over $530 and have gold down $20 he is my fkin hero.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2985547 ekm
ekm's picture

It's forced buying by primary dealers.


For anybody with wife and kids I recommend:

- 80%-90% cash

- 10-20% gold in the backyard, at least 3 ft deep. (I am not joking)

Think about going back to the stock market at S&P at 700 points. Go all in at S&P at 400 points.


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985581 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

EKM if the S&P gets close to 400 pts it will cease to exist. Equities and Bonds in all forms will be taken over and turned into a "private annuity" from Uncle Sam. The stock market will cease to exist.

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