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Goldman's Swirlogram Confirms Economic Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture


It would seem that the downswing into this economic slowdown has been considerably faster than many expected (as it always seems to be). Since we first introduced Goldman's Swirlogram indicator the business cycle (in May 2012), helped by the promise more and more liquidity, we have rotated remarkably from slowdown to contraction to recovery to expansion and now - in November - the leading indicators are pointing to a rapid shift into a slowdown phase. The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is losing momentum fast and has made lower cycle highs each time since the 2009 'recovery' began. While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing.



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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2985416 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

The only swirl I see is our economy circling the drain...


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985461 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Mon Dieu! But how can this be? There are still a couple of resources left on the planet that have not been wasted. Surely there is room for more growth.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2985500 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Like the movement of a stripper: when she gets closer to the pole you know shes going down.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:44 | 2985505 Kitler
Kitler's picture

That is clearly the northern hemispheric chart.

In the southern hemisphere the toilet bowl circles counterclockwise as it flushes.

(Still not sure why Nov-6 wasn't the turd)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:15 | 2985878 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
Fed to Test Banks Based on Severe Recession


western elites try to contain china with global recession.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 20:15 | 2986262 Keegan11
Keegan11's picture

Dalago - well played sir! That made me laugh out loud

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2985506 onelight
onelight's picture

I think the Bosley hair care technology for growing-in bald spots may be helpful here..just a thought.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2985512 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



My fuckyou-ogram says, "eat shit and die Goldman"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:11 | 2985869 SecondComing
SecondComing's picture

Well, I see an economic gyre, spiraling towards an inevitable singularity.  An econo-gyre, one might call it.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:21 | 2985420 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Flush it !

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985460 Alhazred
Alhazred's picture

The only way to stop the flow is to stop the Federal Reserve and get back on a metal standard.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 23:53 | 2986716 DjRonnieG
DjRonnieG's picture

I didn't realize there was a free-market writer named Thomas Sole. I've only know of a Thomas Sowell, a name that is not on the petition.

Mispelling a name on a petition will not help to advance the cause promoted by the petition.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2985421 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

somewhere somehow a muppet is getting set up for a face rip by one of the 70 new "patnuz"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985452 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

swirlogram? Who makes that? Whammo or Popeil?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985456 centerline
centerline's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:22 | 2985423 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Love me the swirlogram.

Love it!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2985424 HD
HD's picture

I no chartist but that sure looks fibonacci to me...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2985523 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture



Singularity, bitchez!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:23 | 2985425 bania
bania's picture

apparently this swirls the other direction if you're in Australia

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 21:04 | 2986372 Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

...envision whirled peas..

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2985430 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The vertex in the middle of the chart is supposed to represent the drain, right?

Anyway, how are we supposed to profit from this?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985474 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Show it to your girlfriend after a few drinks... then "panic sex"!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2985486 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I just looks like all problems will be solved when we finally hit the middle of the chart.  We'll be in expansion and contraction at the SAME TIME.  Sweet.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:09 | 2985621 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Actually, if you're familiar with the concept of angular momentum, this is pretty interesting. Angular momentum is the product of mass x velocity x radius. Here, the mass is money supply, and the velocity is how fast we spend money. Despite massive increases in money supply, velocity is slowing even more rapidly so that angular momentum is decreasing. As we approach the origin, it will take even more massive amounts of money to make up for the dramatic fall in velocity (as everyone realizes AAPL isn't going to $5,000 but gold is) until, as velocity reaches zero, the money supply must become infinite!

Zimbabwe leads the way! Hyperinflation, bitchez!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:45 | 2985772 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Yeah, at singularity, we'll all suffocate under massive piles of FRNs. 

Oh the humanity!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:03 | 2986046 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Lol and yep.

infinite money supply being QE to infinity and beyond.

For an orbiting satellite around a little crummy planet with gravity as the force of attraction "still pulling it in".

Suggests to me that the total value so far created may have slowed the rate of collapse but it is still a crash trajectory.



Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2985432 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

my economy never sped up, though the prick has gotten more expensive

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2985443 centerline
centerline's picture

Goldman gives us a swirlie?  Yeah.  That feels about right.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:27 | 2985448 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Looks like a GS turd(no offense TF) about to go down a toilet

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:28 | 2985450 Madcow
Madcow's picture

30+ years of steadily increaisng savagery and never-ending collapse.  

all becuase a handful of central bankers refuse to admit they were wrong.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:30 | 2985470 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I don't think we've seen anything yet.  

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:29 | 2985457 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Where's the PPT with the net?  Rescue some floaters!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:40 | 2985513 onelight
onelight's picture

Might be more like the doodie scare scene in Caddyshack..

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:41 | 2985514 kralizec
kralizec's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985471 e-man
e-man's picture

If that were a Rorschach blot, I'd say the snake is eating its tail (just like the economy).

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:49 | 2985538 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

...snake is eating its tail ... this is how a Ponzi scheme comes to an end.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985473 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I got that.

All in one easy to understand chart!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2985475 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

it's over

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:33 | 2985484 recidivist
recidivist's picture

Death Spiral?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:34 | 2985487 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Isn't that the floorplan for the new JCP stores?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:35 | 2985492 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2985499 e-recep
e-recep's picture

we had a dead cat bounce during the 2009-2011 period. i wonder whether the dead cat would bounce for a second time?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:43 | 2985520 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Get in there Kevin!!!! Nice Job Buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:45 | 2985522 e-man
e-man's picture

If anyone can do it, Kevin can!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:46 | 2985527 kralizec
kralizec's picture

1353, he's working hard to save his phony balony job!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:46 | 2985526 gamera9
gamera9's picture

See if we lived in the southern hemisphere things would be going great.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985531 kralizec
kralizec's picture

...or is that the bottom of the drain?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985532 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Big Day for Kev. Big day. If Kev can get apple over $530 and have gold down $20 he is my fkin hero.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2985547 ekm
ekm's picture

It's forced buying by primary dealers.


For anybody with wife and kids I recommend:

- 80%-90% cash

- 10-20% gold in the backyard, at least 3 ft deep. (I am not joking)

Think about going back to the stock market at S&P at 700 points. Go all in at S&P at 400 points.


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985581 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

EKM if the S&P gets close to 400 pts it will cease to exist. Equities and Bonds in all forms will be taken over and turned into a "private annuity" from Uncle Sam. The stock market will cease to exist.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2985592 ekm
ekm's picture

What is logic that you base this conclusion on?

I can't see how S&P would not exitst at 400.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:06 | 2985607 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If you wipe out 50% plus of everyone's last hope of wealth, their IRA's, their 401k's etc the mass class action lawsuits against fiduciaries of all kinds will lead to chaos. Absolute chaos. These people have already coughed up 30% of their balances a few times in the last decade playing in a game they are forced to play in because the people who they trusted with their money told them to do so. More importantly in a lot of cases they were not able to opt out. This will give the gov the ability to come in and offer a guaranteed income (backed by a money printing machine) to everyone. The government would take the whole game over and more importantly the sheep will demand they do it.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:13 | 2985632 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx a lot.

I'm going to think about it.

Extremely interesting. Food for my brain.

Imagination separates an analyzer and a thinker. You have some excellent imagination.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:33 | 2985633 e-man
e-man's picture

Agreed, although I think the gov wants this to happen.

Why would they waste a perfectly good crisis?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985653 ekm
ekm's picture

I am quite impressed with this.

At 3rd read, this looks like the gov would take over the means of production.

Is that correct, is that what you imagine it could happen?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:27 | 2985712 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i think that is correct. i think if that happens that is the final orwellian nail in our coffin. not only does the gov take over, but we ask them to. i see it happening here after the storm that hit. people "demanding" the federal gov do something. honestly i opt for hyperinflation over that scenario.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:51 | 2985787 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    not only does the gov take over, but we ask them to.

That's an important realization, not just for this scenario, but to understand history as well. 

ALL the crappy stuff gummit has done was *demanded* at one point or another by some given faction or subset of the constituency.  I assure you: if we stop bugging the government, they WILL stop passing shitty legislation.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:05 | 2985605 ekm
ekm's picture

Quite interesting as a thought, though.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2985678 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I"m more inclined to think that it's opportunistic selling by the PDs. Kevy glued down the buy button for the last half hour and let lots of rats escape with their tails still intact.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:30 | 2985945 ekm
ekm's picture

Selling to whom?

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 11:00 | 2987653 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

To Kevin of course.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985533 ekm
ekm's picture

Don't worry.

The 25% who voted for the republicans will work for all the other 75% who can engage in useful activities like watching football, collecting food stamps and hugging trees.

Everything will be ok America, the president guarantees it.

Be happy, beeeeeeeeeeee happyyyyyyyyyyy.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2985549 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Screw the POTUS, I am walking in front of Kevin tomorrow and dropping rose petals if he gets this bitch green at the close. In Kevin I trust.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2985573 ekm
ekm's picture

Quite feasible, but it's not Kevin.

If primary dealers have a crapload of apple, they will defend it drops $100 in one day.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985578 e-man
e-man's picture

Whoa!  You may be getting a call from 1-800-FLOWERS soon, confirming your order....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:49 | 2985537 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing."

WHAT! Oh my God. We had no idea here at Zero Hedge. This is the first any of us have heard of this. I, I, I, not understand. Hmmmm! I better turn on CNBC and MSN to get "The Truth".

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:56 | 2985563 madcows
madcows's picture

I want to give bernanke a swirlygram in the toilet.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:57 | 2985570 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I had a million bucks in the bank.  So I hired me to manage my life at 100k a year.  With that sort of salary I partied my ass off.  Now I got a letter from the bank that says I am broke.  How the hell did that happen?


----B. Bernanke

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2985575 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

A 'swirlogram'? Is that where a beautiful girl shows up at your door, and ..

Oh, never mind.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985582 nantucket
nantucket's picture

those are directions on how to whip up a finger omlette,...yummy.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985584 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

What happens at 0,0?






Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985587 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Flush multiple times - it's a long way to the White House.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985651 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Is that why geniuses on Wall Street dumped gold and bought euros today because as ZH would write in bold: "euro outperforms gold today."

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985652's picture

Super Storm Goldman heading to all coast

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:21 | 2985683 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

That's either a fibonaci curve or a childs drawing of Sandy. Either way bad news.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:35 | 2985737 atoast2toast
atoast2toast's picture

was thinking it was the golden ratio 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 21:08 | 2986381 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

This is EXACTLY like the swirlogram published in the WSJ about 20 years ago showing the decline in trade of the Great Depression.  

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 03:19 | 2986910 e-recep
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