Goldman's Swirlogram Confirms Economic Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture


It would seem that the downswing into this economic slowdown has been considerably faster than many expected (as it always seems to be). Since we first introduced Goldman's Swirlogram indicator the business cycle (in May 2012), helped by the promise more and more liquidity, we have rotated remarkably from slowdown to contraction to recovery to expansion and now - in November - the leading indicators are pointing to a rapid shift into a slowdown phase. The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is losing momentum fast and has made lower cycle highs each time since the 2009 'recovery' began. While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing.


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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:01 | 2985592 ekm
ekm's picture

What is logic that you base this conclusion on?

I can't see how S&P would not exitst at 400.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:06 | 2985607 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If you wipe out 50% plus of everyone's last hope of wealth, their IRA's, their 401k's etc the mass class action lawsuits against fiduciaries of all kinds will lead to chaos. Absolute chaos. These people have already coughed up 30% of their balances a few times in the last decade playing in a game they are forced to play in because the people who they trusted with their money told them to do so. More importantly in a lot of cases they were not able to opt out. This will give the gov the ability to come in and offer a guaranteed income (backed by a money printing machine) to everyone. The government would take the whole game over and more importantly the sheep will demand they do it.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:13 | 2985632 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx a lot.

I'm going to think about it.

Extremely interesting. Food for my brain.

Imagination separates an analyzer and a thinker. You have some excellent imagination.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:33 | 2985633 e-man
e-man's picture

Agreed, although I think the gov wants this to happen.

Why would they waste a perfectly good crisis?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985653 ekm
ekm's picture

I am quite impressed with this.

At 3rd read, this looks like the gov would take over the means of production.

Is that correct, is that what you imagine it could happen?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:27 | 2985712 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i think that is correct. i think if that happens that is the final orwellian nail in our coffin. not only does the gov take over, but we ask them to. i see it happening here after the storm that hit. people "demanding" the federal gov do something. honestly i opt for hyperinflation over that scenario.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:51 | 2985787 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    not only does the gov take over, but we ask them to.

That's an important realization, not just for this scenario, but to understand history as well. 

ALL the crappy stuff gummit has done was *demanded* at one point or another by some given faction or subset of the constituency.  I assure you: if we stop bugging the government, they WILL stop passing shitty legislation.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:05 | 2985605 ekm
ekm's picture

Quite interesting as a thought, though.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2985678 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I"m more inclined to think that it's opportunistic selling by the PDs. Kevy glued down the buy button for the last half hour and let lots of rats escape with their tails still intact.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:30 | 2985945 ekm
ekm's picture

Selling to whom?

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 11:00 | 2987653 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

To Kevin of course.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:48 | 2985533 ekm
ekm's picture

Don't worry.

The 25% who voted for the republicans will work for all the other 75% who can engage in useful activities like watching football, collecting food stamps and hugging trees.

Everything will be ok America, the president guarantees it.

Be happy, beeeeeeeeeeee happyyyyyyyyyyy.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:52 | 2985549 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Screw the POTUS, I am walking in front of Kevin tomorrow and dropping rose petals if he gets this bitch green at the close. In Kevin I trust.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2985573 ekm
ekm's picture

Quite feasible, but it's not Kevin.

If primary dealers have a crapload of apple, they will defend it drops $100 in one day.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985578 e-man
e-man's picture

Whoa!  You may be getting a call from 1-800-FLOWERS soon, confirming your order....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:49 | 2985537 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing."

WHAT! Oh my God. We had no idea here at Zero Hedge. This is the first any of us have heard of this. I, I, I, not understand. Hmmmm! I better turn on CNBC and MSN to get "The Truth".

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:56 | 2985563 madcows
madcows's picture

I want to give bernanke a swirlygram in the toilet.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:57 | 2985570 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I had a million bucks in the bank.  So I hired me to manage my life at 100k a year.  With that sort of salary I partied my ass off.  Now I got a letter from the bank that says I am broke.  How the hell did that happen?


----B. Bernanke

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:58 | 2985575 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

A 'swirlogram'? Is that where a beautiful girl shows up at your door, and ..

Oh, never mind.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985582 nantucket
nantucket's picture

those are directions on how to whip up a finger omlette,...yummy.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985584 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

What happens at 0,0?






Thu, 11/15/2012 - 16:59 | 2985587 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Flush multiple times - it's a long way to the White House.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985651 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Is that why geniuses on Wall Street dumped gold and bought euros today because as ZH would write in bold: "euro outperforms gold today."

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:15 | 2985652's picture

Super Storm Goldman heading to all coast

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:21 | 2985683 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

That's either a fibonaci curve or a childs drawing of Sandy. Either way bad news.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:35 | 2985737 atoast2toast
atoast2toast's picture

was thinking it was the golden ratio 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 21:08 | 2986381 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

This is EXACTLY like the swirlogram published in the WSJ about 20 years ago showing the decline in trade of the Great Depression.  

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 03:19 | 2986910 e-recep
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