Initial Claims Soar To 439K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surge By Whopping 104,548 In One Week

Tyler Durden's picture


Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.

Here is a list of all the consensus misses since 1999, courtesy of John Lohman. With a miss of 64K, "we are #2, baby."

But that's not all.

Read this to get a sense of the complete goalseeked and manipulated farce that are BLS data.

Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were released to the press. The extent of the damage means it may take weeks for the underlying trend in firings to again become clear. Before the storm, the labor market was gaining momentum even as year-end domestic fiscal policy uncertainties raised concern among businesses. The Labor Department spokesman did not name the affected states, citing agency policy not to single out any one area. Today’s report showed a loss of electricity prevented New York offices from taking claims two weeks ago. In addition, since Monday was a government holiday, three states and territories  -- Hawaii, Oregon and Puerto Rico -- didn’t report claims data, causing the Labor Department to estimate their totals, the spokesman said. Two others, California and Virginia, provided their own estimates.

Bottom line: guesswork, no actual data reporting, and hurricane excuses. Spin, Spin, and more post-election Spin.

At least CPI came in at 0.1%, in line with expectations, down from 0.6% before, driven by a drop in energy prices, even as Transportation Services, Electricity and Food at home posted multi-month highs.

Finally, the Empire Manufacturing Index printed at -5.22, the 4th consecutive negative print, better than the expected -8, even as Number of Employees index plunged from -1.08 to -14.61.  Shhhh. Sandy's fault too....

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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:49 | 2983608 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Now that's a fire.


Was gonna throw some Kookaid at it....but it appears we're clean out.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2983768 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Economy is under a vaccuum, atmospheric pressure mysteriously rises

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:28 | 2983800 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

It does not make sense.... Unemployeement should be lower because of the clean up jobs. Rebuild houses and roads.


Unemployeement is up because of the policy's of the President. Anyone know a COE of a Large company? All of them will tell you its getting worse. They believe they are large enough to stay in business, but cuts must be made. 


Thank you to everyone that voted Democrate. I have now spent 1/10 of my yearly income on protection and lead.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:33 | 2983817 j0nx
j0nx's picture

$100 says that every one of those democrats that you blame are blaming you for voting republican for all these problems. Civil War 2: Conservatives vs. Liberals. It's what's for dinner. Luckily or unluckily depending on your leaning, liberals as a general rule have aversion to firearms so the war will be short lived.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:09 | 2983983 Master_Blaster
Master_Blaster's picture

I wonder which of those two catagories are long lead?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:22 | 2984042 NeedtoSecede
NeedtoSecede's picture

You forgot to add the libtard aversion to firearms, liberty and reality... "Fucking clown circus"

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 12:09 | 2984286 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Dont forget, most red states produce the food? Why shoot when you can embargo?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:40 | 2983854 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

bingo Atlas,

Do they really think we're that stupid!!   We know they're just playing catch-up from all the under reported pre-election numbers designed to help POTUS keep his white house.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:42 | 2984159 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

"Unemployeement should be lower because of the clean up jobs. Rebuild houses and roads."

I don't know...I think that the machine moves quite slowly for disaster survivors.  Anyone who deals with insurance companies knows how slow they are to pay out.  FEMA response has been dreadful, so I'm thinking the government is not going to be working any more quickly than the insurance drones.  I think that cities, counties and states are going to be taking the financial burdens of rebuilding roads and public works upon themselves, and if their budgets are anything like where I live, watch out for higher taxes dead ahead.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:48 | 2983610 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Theres a hurricane coming, you're fired!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:02 | 2983655 Pool Shark
Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:18 | 2983743 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I really like the part about California supplying its own estimates. That is very very bullish.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:09 | 2983693 Atoyota
Atoyota's picture

What??? No broken windows to fix???

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:29 | 2984097 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Shhh, we don't want to apply that bedtime story here.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:43 | 2983861 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Hurricane Obamacare ... it's killing small business.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:57 | 2983924 Jethro
Jethro's picture

Everyone knows that superstorms are racist. Math is too....

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:49 | 2983611 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

In all seriousness, ZeroHedge, why would Sandy cause such a huge jump in unemployment? If you are out of work for 2 weeks because your business was damaged by the hurricane, but still have a job, are you seriously allowed to apply? That seems like a really easy way for people to game the system.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:54 | 2983632 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am in no way saying Sandy is to blame completely....but I know many businesses that were on the barrier islands and coast that were just wiped out.  The owners probably had some business interruption insurance but the employees were SOL immediately.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:59 | 2983648 new game
new game's picture

are forgetting about bush?

s p <1360, nice follow thru.

this has the retrace of 1987, but we are lacking a trigger-hmmm

is that a large feathered bird i see?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:01 | 2983651 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Bush who?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:15 | 2983714 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Let's back that thought up a little...


a) If it's ALL BUSH's FAULT


b) It's all NATURE's FAULT


BARBARA BUSH = MOTHER NATURE... (francis_sawyer solves yet another algebraic riddle)...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:09 | 2983692 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sorry, I can't see the bird, it must be very dark colored.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:10 | 2983700 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am looking for that bird too. So far same shit.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:18 | 2983742 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

I think I see it but it is very dark in color.  It's hard to see in this tunnel with that bright light at the tunnels end.  That must be daylight!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:09 | 2983696 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Surely someone can get their hands on the raw data...what was the east coast uptick vs the nation?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:48 | 2983612 youngman
youngman's picture

No politics was not kept low for the no no...that would not

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:51 | 2983624 docj
docj's picture

Yep - and now that Choomy is safely re-appointed for another 4-years we can let some little bits of truthiness out for the consumption of The Great Unwashed.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:43 | 2983630 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Mr President....are you really as good of a kisser as your wife says?


The world is dieing to know......literally. Thank heaven for CBS news.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2984199 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Thats the word at the chicago steam baths too! Magic purple lips!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 09:59 | 2983646 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The repugs would never lie. LMAO!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:02 | 2983660 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It doesn't matter....they're not in charge.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:03 | 2983665 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bush lied, people died. Tell that to the families of the dead and mutilated.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:05 | 2983673 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Good thing no one has died in the last four years.....or in the next four years.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2983691 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Completely agree.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:17 | 2983704 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



MSNBC will be reporting exactly that later today.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:20 | 2983749 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i agree with your saracasm and get 4 down votes. that's funny.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:22 | 2983769 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



MDB is not going to like you encroaching on his turf.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:25 | 2983792 BBullionaire
BBullionaire's picture

government trolls?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:35 | 2983830 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Someone doesn't like you buzz.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:46 | 2983876 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

I didn't down you Buzz...but you know, it's not your comments.   It's your picture.  I think I'm probably not the only would who imagines duct taping a grenade to the forehad of that dude and then running to make sure I don't get splattered. 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:53 | 2984213 Col_Sanders
Col_Sanders's picture

But dude, that's "Quato!"

He's the savior of Mars - AND the coolest "baby growing out a guy's chest" ever!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2983705 Temporis
Temporis's picture


And how about that Gitmo... still open right?


Whatever happens from this point on, our great divider and chief owns it.

I am actually glad he won. I welcome the chaos that's coming.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:13 | 2983716 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

darth cheney and co invented gitmo. Owebama owns it? yeah right. :roll: There is no difference, that's my point.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:17 | 2983730 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Your Divider and Chief said he would close it in his first 4 years... seems like you only pay attention to the shit you want to see and not the facts... yes Bush opened it, but Obama said he would close it, and it is still open, and 4 years from now it will still be open.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2983766 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

are you claiming that owebama is the first president in usa history to not keep a promise? lololololol


i remember johnson promising to end the viet nam war, omg there are just so many, oof!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:07 | 2983688 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

I just can't BELIEVE how low the Republicans will sink! Have they no shame?! And now these bottom feeders have the NERVE to blame the collapse of MF Global on Corzine! Can you believe these guys?!!


Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:10 | 2983697 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If Enron had Happened today no-one would go to jail.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2983728 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



This investigation is ongoing.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:31 | 2984099 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Unfortunately the records allowing complete prosecution of Enron were destroyed when WTC7 was demolished with explosives, er I mean fell down in its own footprint from small fires.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 10:29 | 2983803 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Depends on how much Enron bundled to Bam

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