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Initial Claims Soar To 439K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surge By Whopping 104,548 In One Week
Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.
Here is a list of all the consensus misses since 1999, courtesy of John Lohman. With a miss of 64K, "we are #2, baby."

But that's not all.
Read this to get a sense of the complete goalseeked and manipulated farce that are BLS data.
Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were released to the press. The extent of the damage means it may take weeks for the underlying trend in firings to again become clear. Before the storm, the labor market was gaining momentum even as year-end domestic fiscal policy uncertainties raised concern among businesses. The Labor Department spokesman did not name the affected states, citing agency policy not to single out any one area. Today’s report showed a loss of electricity prevented New York offices from taking claims two weeks ago. In addition, since Monday was a government holiday, three states and territories -- Hawaii, Oregon and Puerto Rico -- didn’t report claims data, causing the Labor Department to estimate their totals, the spokesman said. Two others, California and Virginia, provided their own estimates.
Bottom line: guesswork, no actual data reporting, and hurricane excuses. Spin, Spin, and more post-election Spin.
At least CPI came in at 0.1%, in line with expectations, down from 0.6% before, driven by a drop in energy prices, even as Transportation Services, Electricity and Food at home posted multi-month highs.
Finally, the Empire Manufacturing Index printed at -5.22, the 4th consecutive negative print, better than the expected -8, even as Number of Employees index plunged from -1.08 to -14.61. Shhhh. Sandy's fault too....
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Now that's a fire.
Was gonna throw some Kookaid at it....but it appears we're clean out.
Economy is under a vaccuum, atmospheric pressure mysteriously rises
It does not make sense.... Unemployeement should be lower because of the clean up jobs. Rebuild houses and roads.
Unemployeement is up because of the policy's of the President. Anyone know a COE of a Large company? All of them will tell you its getting worse. They believe they are large enough to stay in business, but cuts must be made.
Thank you to everyone that voted Democrate. I have now spent 1/10 of my yearly income on protection and lead.
$100 says that every one of those democrats that you blame are blaming you for voting republican for all these problems. Civil War 2: Conservatives vs. Liberals. It's what's for dinner. Luckily or unluckily depending on your leaning, liberals as a general rule have aversion to firearms so the war will be short lived.
I wonder which of those two catagories are long lead?
You forgot to add the libtard aversion to firearms, liberty and reality... "Fucking clown circus"
Dont forget, most red states produce the food? Why shoot when you can embargo?
bingo Atlas,
Do they really think we're that stupid!! We know they're just playing catch-up from all the under reported pre-election numbers designed to help POTUS keep his white house.
"Unemployeement should be lower because of the clean up jobs. Rebuild houses and roads."
I don't know...I think that the machine moves quite slowly for disaster survivors. Anyone who deals with insurance companies knows how slow they are to pay out. FEMA response has been dreadful, so I'm thinking the government is not going to be working any more quickly than the insurance drones. I think that cities, counties and states are going to be taking the financial burdens of rebuilding roads and public works upon themselves, and if their budgets are anything like where I live, watch out for higher taxes dead ahead.
Theres a hurricane coming, you're fired!
U FIRED!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwEuCxOT2O0
I really like the part about California supplying its own estimates. That is very very bullish.
What??? No broken windows to fix???
Shhh, we don't want to apply that bedtime story here.
Hurricane Obamacare ... it's killing small business.
Everyone knows that superstorms are racist. Math is too....
In all seriousness, ZeroHedge, why would Sandy cause such a huge jump in unemployment? If you are out of work for 2 weeks because your business was damaged by the hurricane, but still have a job, are you seriously allowed to apply? That seems like a really easy way for people to game the system.
I am in no way saying Sandy is to blame completely....but I know many businesses that were on the barrier islands and coast that were just wiped out. The owners probably had some business interruption insurance but the employees were SOL immediately.
are forgetting about bush?
s p <1360, nice follow thru.
this has the retrace of 1987, but we are lacking a trigger-hmmm
is that a large feathered bird i see?
Bush who?
Let's back that thought up a little...
~~~
a) If it's ALL BUSH's FAULT
+
b) It's all NATURE's FAULT
Then:
BARBARA BUSH = MOTHER NATURE... (francis_sawyer solves yet another algebraic riddle)...
Sorry, I can't see the bird, it must be very dark colored.
I am looking for that bird too. So far same shit.
I think I see it but it is very dark in color. It's hard to see in this tunnel with that bright light at the tunnels end. That must be daylight!
Surely someone can get their hands on the raw data...what was the east coast uptick vs the nation?
No politics here..it was not kept low for the election...no no no...that would not happen....lol
Yep - and now that Choomy is safely re-appointed for another 4-years we can let some little bits of truthiness out for the consumption of The Great Unwashed.
Mr President....are you really as good of a kisser as your wife says?
The world is dieing to know......literally. Thank heaven for CBS news.
Thats the word at the chicago steam baths too! Magic purple lips!
The repugs would never lie. LMAO!
It doesn't matter....they're not in charge.
Bush lied, people died. Tell that to the families of the dead and mutilated.
Good thing no one has died in the last four years.....or in the next four years.
Completely agree.
MSNBC will be reporting exactly that later today.
i agree with your saracasm and get 4 down votes. that's funny.
MDB is not going to like you encroaching on his turf.
government trolls?
Someone doesn't like you buzz.
I didn't down you Buzz...but you know, it's not your comments. It's your picture. I think I'm probably not the only would who imagines duct taping a grenade to the forehad of that dude and then running to make sure I don't get splattered.
But dude, that's "Quato!"
He's the savior of Mars - AND the coolest "baby growing out a guy's chest" ever!
Exactly...
And how about that Gitmo... still open right?
Whatever happens from this point on, our great divider and chief owns it.
I am actually glad he won. I welcome the chaos that's coming.
darth cheney and co invented gitmo. Owebama owns it? yeah right. :roll: There is no difference, that's my point.
Your Divider and Chief said he would close it in his first 4 years... seems like you only pay attention to the shit you want to see and not the facts... yes Bush opened it, but Obama said he would close it, and it is still open, and 4 years from now it will still be open.
are you claiming that owebama is the first president in usa history to not keep a promise? lololololol
i remember johnson promising to end the viet nam war, omg there are just so many, oof!
I just can't BELIEVE how low the Republicans will sink! Have they no shame?! And now these bottom feeders have the NERVE to blame the collapse of MF Global on Corzine! Can you believe these guys?!!
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/14/gop_blames_corzine_for_mf_global_collapse/
/<sarc>
If Enron had Happened today no-one would go to jail.
This investigation is ongoing.
Unfortunately the records allowing complete prosecution of Enron were destroyed when WTC7 was demolished with explosives, er I mean fell down in its own footprint from small fires.
Depends on how much Enron bundled to Bam
Shit. Beat me to it.
Hussein lies and our ambassador dies. There fixed it for you.
Christ man, open your eyes and look beyond the talking points. Bush Lied People Died has been debunked years ago.
Styx
welcome to the grand illusion..come on in and see what's happening... you paid the price get your ticket for the show
Don't be fooled by the radio,
The TV or the magazine...
They better hurry up and raise everyone's taxes or this will just get worse
/sarc
You must have missed the memo...no /sarc needed anymore. There was something about "Harder" but I didnt get it. But this is ZH, we know when it's sarcasm. Only let us know if it's not.
They will undoubtedly raise taxes on the evil 1%ers, the 0.00000000000000000001%ers, however, are completely sacrosanct, as they are doing God's work.
who let this UE claims number out?? oh the election was last week..carry on.
You would think they would at least wait a couple of months after the election before pulling back the curtain and showing us the real numbers. Plausible deniability and all that. I guess they realize that most people just don't give a shit/don't pay attention.
to be revised up to half a million next week, oh wait they dont have to do that anymore since the boy got re-elected.
Forward, comrades!
Full (UN)employment by 2016. Workers of the world unite!
So we'll all be working for the United Nation in 2016?
Sounds about right...
Indeed
Trans-Pacific Partnership: Secret Surrender of Sovereignty
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/foreign-policy/item/13485-trans-pac...
Chartist Friend Correctly Calls The Initial Claims Bottom http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/chartist-friend...
pay.gov....quick get out your credit cards and pay your debt
That explains the gold $8 pop, lucky me bought 40oz at 200x lev at 1717
EURUSD showing "strength"
The EUR is the only instrument that has dealt with reality in recent months, years.. it has suffered as it should have.. It may have actually acheived the term "priced in". The USD and SPX have been in la la land for a long time and so a reversal could take place.
EUR up SPX+USD Down for the second day?
Yeah. The storm. That's what it was.
Federal tax receipts are down 3.7% YoY. That's all you need to know about the employment situation.
They will be down 15% next year....Going Galt has started
Higher.
More! Faster!! NOW!!!
At least one thing is going up at .gov
USPS triples it's losses to $15.9 billion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-15/u-s-postal-service-on-tightrope-loses-15-9-billion.html
4 more years....unemployment rate sure to drop now...LMAO!
again....the fucking storm hit oct 31 . how does it effect the numbers? obama , the murdering racist bigot can not be blamed because it is plain to see he is retarded.
How stupid do they believe us to be?
Their gall is truly unbelieveable
Obama voters don't care about jobs. They are either FEDGOV employees or section 8/foodstamp losers loafing the mule at home in my hood while I schlep off to work every day to pay for their sorry asses.
Turns out the USSA really is no different than the PIIGS or Russia in the late 80's.
If I remember correctly, Washington fully supported the secession of a number of soviet states during their currency collapse. I am sure they won't mind when some states in the USSA decide they are better on their own as well.
Make no mistake, given our current state of chaos (class wars/race wars/currency wars) this is where we are heading.
A very small fraction of whack jobs ain't gonna secede shit. There is a place for their kind, it's called north dakota.
That is exactly what two of my professional colleagues in St. Petersburg Russia said in 1987 when I asked about similar state positions in the U.S.S.R.
Remind us buzzsaw, how did that turn out for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan again?
By the way, North Dakota is beautiful, and full of natural resources as well. Thanks for confirming your ignorance.
Yes and very few negroes or latins which is a great part of the appeal. ;)
and you are racist too, nice.
Again, you also show your ignorance. There are many brown folks (including hispanics) in the Dakotas. You really should get out of the basement more.
It crosses my mind now and then to move to ND. Based on election returns, Wyoming is looking good as well.
You mean the place where if you buy a house or piece of property, you actually own it, since there are no property taxes? Is that the whack job place?
That would require the seceding states to not be the biggest recipients of the handouts.
If they leave you won't have to give them your hard earned tax dollars anymore. Of course you won't get their hard earned tax dollars either.
Sold!
Handouts for we the people, BAILOUTS FOR THE QUINTILLIONAIRES
Someday I will piss on Frank and Dodd's graves for that.
correct, and you might have to pay a bit more for their resources as well.
Bombs or Benny Bucks... Your choice
You should take a look at where the majority of military personnel come from before being so sure.
Did I mention what states I was refferring to? Remind us, what states are in debt again? Texas and Alaska are very much in the black dipshit, and they have resources. Perhaps these states should require california, new york, and D.C. to pay with gold.
Wake the fuck up, when fraud is the status quo, possession is the fucking law.
The Bernank is writing over a trillion in bad checks a year and state governments get one third their revenue from the federal government. That's about $25 billion in bad checks per state. Will the states be able to write bad checks at 1% interest or turn into Greece? It's a pretty childish solution. We need to ride the reserve currency for as long as we can because the national debt will never be paid. After interest rates on the national debt go to 7%, then we can break up and say what United States? Sue us.
Correct. This is exactly what the former soviet Union did.
Forget the Goldilocks economy, this is Alice in Wonderland, A Clockwork Orange and Tommy all rolled into one! So unbelievable but true!
Your government: where the left hand has no clue what the right hand is doing!
George Bush confuses his left and right hands
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71vnMmeOxRM
Krugman just threw a nut jerking to these numbers.
@LongSoupLine
And Austin Goolsby took it in the eye.
"Before the storm...."
They may as well have said, "Before the election..."
I used to laugh at Isvestia. The "Western" press is no better.
I was just getting used to/programmed to belive it was all "Bush's" fault.
Me brain can't take the "Sandy" fault or "Susan Rice" fault or "Bengazi made me do it"
Please comrades tell me what to think....FORWARD
Still Dubya's fault.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mslj4wVS3g
D'you think glaciers ever get tired of their trade being abused in the press this way?
welcome to the age where B U L L S H I T is now B U L L I S H
stock market will rise at least 100 points on this news !
Is all we have to do is raise taxes some and that will improve the job numbers.
Do you want solar panel jobs or not? They'll be on sale after Christmas for $350,000 each.
ES down a full point!!!!
Nevermind...it's up now.
How much?
2 handles and being ramrodded higher.
Whether it's Sandy's fault of not...
...if your means of transportatioon much less where you (used to) sleep and eat are gone then you might not have a job because you can't show up.
...if the place you worked no longer exists then you might not have a job.
Gives new meaning to the term outsourced (into the Atlantic).
Shame, though, on using this misery as an excuse for poor numbers instead of the truth.
I remember Andrew - visited it to help about 90 minutes away - pictures do not do something like this justice. You have to walk in it - and smell it.
It's ok master obama is going to pardon the whitehouse turkey
Some Japanese cattle won't be quite as lucky.
Of cousre it's Bush's fault, he was just elect to a fourth term, matching FDR's statist record.
And his first legit win!
anyone remember what happened during katrina? oh right, initial claims spiked.
since everyone here believes the data is rigged anyways why wouldnt the administration just fudge the number to 375k or something innocuous? bueller, bueller?
its very easy to selectively rig data and the unemployment numbers have been bouncing all over the place all year, especially leading up the election. If the BLS would simply stop making any and all seasonal "adjustments" to the numbers, a more accurate print would be possible but not probable. Personally, I follow the shadow stats unemployment number and the U-6 rate.
I wonder if the start of the Obamacare layoffs are included in these numbers. My guess is that the bloodletting has only just begun.
The weather is the last resort of a scoundrel.
- Nouriel Roubini
Better get those HAARP generators working at near 100% capacity. This administration is going to need quite a few more "natural" disasters to maintain "legitimacy".
A precursor of much worse to come.
All my clients are now going Galt, and moving capital out of the USA.
A few were doing it before, now the rest are following suit.
FORWARD.
But they told me disasters were good for the economy? i guess they meant there is a lag...so i would assume jobless claims to decrease substantially over the next 3 months. HOORAY!!!!
Laid off all those campaign people holding signs and knocking doors.
The surge must be due to all those recently released campaign workers.
just like the Cenus a few year ago...
Clearly now in a depression.
Since it's officially Obamas, we'll call it:
The "O-Pression."
Dial "O" for Oligarchy.
Could it be that Krugman was wrong about broken windows?
Depends. How fast can we train new glaciers?
Good luck with that ,or did you mean glaziers ?
Going per plan for The Kenyan Thug, who's plan is to "return the (USA's) wealth to its rightful owners", ie, the rest of the world who 'we've been ripping off for decades'. Of course these numbers are yet again (as always) a LIE - too low. Real unemployment rate ~24%.
55T and counting. He must just suck at the redistribution part.
Wait, Tylers, the main issue has been missed, and missed badly.
The ue claim spike follows hard on the heels of the Red State secession drive that prominently featured a threat of mass layoffs if Obama were selected over Romney. The election wasn't even close. Obama creamed Romney.
And, right after Rove failed to reverse the Ohio outcome on Fox, the previously announced layoff threats began.
Right here on ZH, a poster kindly started a list of company layoffs enabling us to know who to boycott and who to sue for possibly illegal political reprisals, not to mention the unpatriotic intentional damage to the economy caused by spite layoffs.
You know, the worst part of this oversight is that it lowers the quality of ZH analysis to the Fox level.
The worst part of laying off people as a form of political protest is that it raises the question of how far are people willing to go to establish hegemony of Republicrats over Democricans and verse vicea?
A better perspective would have been one analyzing the effect of election reprisal, not Sandy.
Furthermore, when at a later date Republicrats blame Obama for job losses, it would be easier to dig out from the memory hole the fact that the layoffs result not from Obama's policies, but are the result of intentional infliction of economic harm based on political reprisal.
If I were a Republicrat, I'd think twice before trying to get away with that crap.
Too bad ZHers didn't see their way clear to making this connection without the need for my help.
You're welcome, bitchez
Like all arguments please introduce facts to support your thesis.
I am in business and the climate was bad before Obama was re-elected, after the election business sees nothing new on the horizon.
The FORWARD movement may encourage the socialist but not the captialist.
More regulation and taxes will speed up the departure of businesses to far away and friendlier locations - see Europe for future Socialist Utopia.
So you got bored over at the DU and decided to come over here.
So you've developed a foil for your other puppet MDB_?
Rove had the right numbers on Ohio. What he didn't have were the 250k+ fake ballots stuffed into Cuyahoga County boxes by poll workers. He also didn't know about the thousands of ballots from Republican leaning precincts that went missing.
The Harry Reid Nevada Miracle was the test run for Operation Obama 2012. Voter fraud hit new highs this time.
I don't know how else to explain a tax levy that was shot down by a vote greater than 25% six time in a row somehow passing by 1% this time. It was pretty obvious that a whole lot of votes weren't counted. I find it hard to believe you could reverse over 25% of the vote in one year.
Now everyone with a home has to pay an extra $40 a month for the "Children's Services" for ghetto blacks. The system was running low on cash after the property taxes dried up and the wave of massive forclosures. For the past three years we voted the tax increase down, yet somehow this time it passes with the lowest total vote cast for that initiative yet.
Yeah, good thing you straightened us out comrade. si se puede!
I'd call you an idiot but then we both know who and what you really are. laugh while you can.
Uh...
...apparently you've forgotten about the defense contractors which were going to lay off workers in October...until Obama told them that the gov't would pay their penalties if they waited until after the election...
...plus, 49 of the 50 states have filed secession petitions, so I'm reasonably sure that covers a few "blue" states...
...but don't let facts get in the way of your partisan rant.
"The worst part of laying off people as a form of political protest"
Congratulations on completely failing to understand why business owners would make decisions in reaction to real-world political events. Not like there's any relationship, right?
"enabling us to know who to boycott and who to sue for possibly illegal political reprisals, not to mention the unpatriotic intentional damage to the economy caused by spite layoffs."
Oh cry me a fucking river. "Sue for illegal political reprisals"? Give me a fucking break, do you totally lack any understanding of the concept of private property? If I want to fire my employees and my contract with them permits it, that is nobody else's business but ours. You seem to think people should not have to face the consequences of their moronic political actions, in this case destroying the real economy but expecting to keep their jobs. Good luck with that.
And just for kicks, please tell me which is more "unpatriotic" - a man running his business and having to make tough choices in order to make a living - and provide a valuable product or service to his customers without whom he'd be broke and jobless, or a scumbag progressive voter with a gigantic ego and a bleeding heart who believes it his rightful duty to dictate the businessmen and in general do everything in his power to run them into insolvency and destitution. Obviously there is no connection between voting for president a man who promises massive economic destruction and the sorry state of your employer's business which eventually compels your layoff - the notion is just insane, right, because actions have no negative consequences, ever, right?
"it would be easier to dig out from the memory hole the fact that the layoffs result not from Obama's policies, but are the result of intentional infliction of economic harm based on political reprisal."
This is absurd and absurdly stupid. You have obviously never operated a business. You are claiming that all these malicious businessmen are so incredibly stupid that they are willingly depriving themselves and their employees of their livelihoods as a mere useless political gesture. Just how stupid do you take the readers of your words to be? You expect me to believe that there is absolutely no way that a businessman, recognizing how awful economic conditions are, might react to them - in a way which you, an economic ignoramus, don't particularly like. And you think it impossible that said businessman, busy as he is operating his business in this environment, would never take note of the correlation between the state of his business and its market and the holder of the office of President of the United States, a person who routinely proclaims an authority and intention to influence the economy.
If I were you, I'd think once before penning such an asinine apologetic on behalf of your Obamessiah again.
Too bad you couldn't see that someone like me was on the way to eviscerate your ignorant drivel.
ES says..."I don't give a sh!t"
and don´t forget the ones who will collect unemployment for the full 99 weeks..but still have a job or two....under the table of course...as paying taxes is only for the 2% now..that is what Obama told them...
And for shedding a tear for people who live on a beach and never think a storm will affect them....oh well
funny... if initial claims had fallen below expectations gold would have dropped $50 in two minutes, when its obvious CTRL-P is in the offing and a huge miss on initial claims gold wobbles and weebles , the banksters must be trying to hold the beach ball underwater... it will rise majestically soon
OK, here comes the FED.
Time to corn hole the market higher today...no bullshitting today. Hit the gas!
Strap yourselves in...it's full throttle time!
FORWARD COMRADES !!!!!!!
si se puede!
And not one mention of this on the Diazepam Bloomberg home page. Muppets.
In the report we notice the Sandy effects. OK. We get that.
The most curious statement in retrospect
OH +6,450 Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.