Initial Claims Soar To 439K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surge By Whopping 104,548 In One Week

Tyler Durden's picture

Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.

Here is a list of all the consensus misses since 1999, courtesy of John Lohman. With a miss of 64K, "we are #2, baby."

But that's not all.

Read this to get a sense of the complete goalseeked and manipulated farce that are BLS data.

Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were released to the press. The extent of the damage means it may take weeks for the underlying trend in firings to again become clear. Before the storm, the labor market was gaining momentum even as year-end domestic fiscal policy uncertainties raised concern among businesses. The Labor Department spokesman did not name the affected states, citing agency policy not to single out any one area. Today’s report showed a loss of electricity prevented New York offices from taking claims two weeks ago. In addition, since Monday was a government holiday, three states and territories  -- Hawaii, Oregon and Puerto Rico -- didn’t report claims data, causing the Labor Department to estimate their totals, the spokesman said. Two others, California and Virginia, provided their own estimates.

Bottom line: guesswork, no actual data reporting, and hurricane excuses. Spin, Spin, and more post-election Spin.

At least CPI came in at 0.1%, in line with expectations, down from 0.6% before, driven by a drop in energy prices, even as Transportation Services, Electricity and Food at home posted multi-month highs.

Finally, the Empire Manufacturing Index printed at -5.22, the 4th consecutive negative print, better than the expected -8, even as Number of Employees index plunged from -1.08 to -14.61.  Shhhh. Sandy's fault too....

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j0nx's picture

Shit. Beat me to it.

nodhannum's picture

Hussein lies and our ambassador dies.  There fixed it for you.

HellFish's picture

Christ man, open your eyes and look beyond the talking points.  Bush Lied People Died has been debunked years ago.

I am more equal than others's picture



welcome to the grand illusion..come on in and see what's happening... you paid the price get your ticket for the show

mvsjcl's picture

Don't be fooled by the radio,

The TV or the magazine...

scatterbrains's picture

They better hurry up and raise everyone's taxes or this will just get worse



JPM Hater001's picture

You must have missed the /sarc needed anymore.  There was something about "Harder" but I didnt get it.  But this is ZH, we know when it's sarcasm.  Only let us know if it's not.

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

They will undoubtedly raise taxes on the evil 1%ers, the 0.00000000000000000001%ers, however, are completely sacrosanct, as they are doing God's work.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

who let this UE claims number out?? oh the election was last week..carry on.

LetThemEatRand's picture

You would think they would at least wait a couple of months after the election before pulling back the curtain and showing us the real numbers.  Plausible deniability and all that.  I guess they realize that most people just don't give a shit/don't pay attention.

caimen garou's picture

to be revised up to half a million next week, oh wait they dont have to do that anymore since the boy got re-elected.

swissaustrian's picture

Forward, comrades!

Full (UN)employment by 2016. Workers of the world unite!

ghengis86's picture

So we'll all be working for the United Nation in 2016?

Sounds about right...

unrulian's picture get out your credit cards and pay your debt

BBullionaire's picture

That explains the gold $8 pop, lucky me bought 40oz at 200x lev at 1717

VonManstein's picture

EURUSD showing "strength"


The EUR is the only instrument that has dealt with reality in recent months, years.. it has suffered as it should have.. It may have actually acheived the term "priced in". The USD and SPX have been in la la land for a long time and so a reversal could take place.

EUR up SPX+USD Down for the second day?

ShortTheUS's picture

Yeah. The storm. That's what it was.

Bold Eagle's picture

Federal tax receipts are down 3.7% YoY. That's all you need to know about the employment situation.

youngman's picture

They will be down 15% next year....Going Galt has started

Shleprock's picture

4 more years....unemployment rate sure to drop now...LMAO!

wonderatitall's picture

again....the fucking storm hit oct 31 .  how does it effect the numbers? obama , the murdering racist bigot can not be blamed because it is plain to see he is retarded.

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

How stupid do they believe us to be?

Their gall is truly unbelieveable

j0nx's picture

Obama voters don't care about jobs. They are either FEDGOV employees or section 8/foodstamp losers loafing the mule at home in my hood while I schlep off to work every day to pay for their sorry asses.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Turns out the USSA really is no different than the PIIGS or Russia in the late 80's.

If I remember correctly, Washington fully supported the secession of a number of soviet states during their currency collapse.  I am sure they won't mind when some states in the USSA decide they are better on their own as well.

Make no mistake, given our current state of chaos (class wars/race wars/currency wars) this is where we are heading.

buzzsaw99's picture

A very small fraction of whack jobs ain't gonna secede shit. There is a place for their kind, it's called north dakota.

LawsofPhysics's picture

That is exactly what two of my professional colleagues in St. Petersburg Russia said in 1987 when I asked about similar state positions in the U.S.S.R.

Remind us buzzsaw, how did that turn out for ArmeniaAzerbaijanBelarusEstoniaGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyzstanLatviaLithuaniaMoldovaTajikistan, TurkmenistanUkraine, and Uzbekistan again?

By the way, North Dakota is beautiful, and full of natural resources as well.  Thanks for confirming your ignorance.

buzzsaw99's picture

Yes and very few negroes or latins which is a great part of the appeal. ;)

LawsofPhysics's picture

and you are racist too, nice.


Again, you also show your ignorance.  There are many brown folks (including hispanics) in the Dakotas.  You really should get out of the basement more.

gaoptimize's picture

It crosses my mind now and then to move to ND.  Based on election returns, Wyoming is looking good as well.

nodhannum's picture

You mean the place where if you buy a house or piece of property, you actually own it, since there are no property taxes?  Is that the whack job place?

GMadScientist's picture

That would require the seceding states to not be the biggest recipients of the handouts.


fuu's picture

If they leave you won't have to give them your hard earned tax dollars anymore. Of course you won't get their hard earned tax dollars either.

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture


GetZeeGold's picture



Someday I will piss on Frank and Dodd's graves for that.

LawsofPhysics's picture

correct, and you might have to pay a bit more for their resources as well.

dark pools of soros's picture

Bombs or Benny Bucks... Your choice

LawsofPhysics's picture

You should take a look at where the majority of military personnel come from before being so sure.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Did I mention what states I was refferring to?  Remind us, what states are in debt again?  Texas and Alaska are very much in the black dipshit, and they have resources.  Perhaps these states should require california, new york, and D.C. to pay with gold.

Wake the fuck up, when fraud is the status quo, possession is the fucking law.

HurricaneSeason's picture

The Bernank is writing over a trillion in bad checks a year and state governments get one third their revenue from the federal government. That's about $25 billion in bad checks per state. Will the states be able to write bad checks at 1% interest or turn into Greece? It's a pretty childish solution. We need to ride the reserve currency for as long as we can because the national debt will never be paid. After interest rates on the national debt go to 7%, then we can break up and say what United States? Sue us.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct. This is exactly what the former soviet Union did.

Mike in GA's picture

Forget the Goldilocks economy, this is Alice in Wonderland, A Clockwork Orange and Tommy all rolled into one!  So unbelievable but true! 

Zen Bernanke's picture

Your government:  where the left hand has no clue what the right hand is doing!

LongSoupLine's picture

Krugman just threw a nut jerking to these numbers.