Initial Claims Soar To 439K, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surge By Whopping 104,548 In One Week

Tyler Durden's picture

Get ready for the "it's all Sandy's fault" barrage, because the post-reelection status quo sure will desperately need it today. The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: it is Sandy's fault. However, for the snapback, when there actually is good news to be had, well, "four more years." Finally, to all the Sandy apologists: is the logic here that: if Hurricane, then Fire everyone? Because that is what is implied. To summarize: a hurricane is good for GDP (lots of broken windows), but any actually negative news (surge in firings) is perfectly expected.

Here is a list of all the consensus misses since 1999, courtesy of John Lohman. With a miss of 64K, "we are #2, baby."

But that's not all.

Read this to get a sense of the complete goalseeked and manipulated farce that are BLS data.

Several states said the increase was due to the storm that hit the Northeastern part of the U.S. in late October, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were released to the press. The extent of the damage means it may take weeks for the underlying trend in firings to again become clear. Before the storm, the labor market was gaining momentum even as year-end domestic fiscal policy uncertainties raised concern among businesses. The Labor Department spokesman did not name the affected states, citing agency policy not to single out any one area. Today’s report showed a loss of electricity prevented New York offices from taking claims two weeks ago. In addition, since Monday was a government holiday, three states and territories  -- Hawaii, Oregon and Puerto Rico -- didn’t report claims data, causing the Labor Department to estimate their totals, the spokesman said. Two others, California and Virginia, provided their own estimates.

Bottom line: guesswork, no actual data reporting, and hurricane excuses. Spin, Spin, and more post-election Spin.

At least CPI came in at 0.1%, in line with expectations, down from 0.6% before, driven by a drop in energy prices, even as Transportation Services, Electricity and Food at home posted multi-month highs.

Finally, the Empire Manufacturing Index printed at -5.22, the 4th consecutive negative print, better than the expected -8, even as Number of Employees index plunged from -1.08 to -14.61.  Shhhh. Sandy's fault too....

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Cursive's picture


And Austin Goolsby took it in the eye.

Cursive's picture

"Before the storm...."


They may as well have said, "Before the election..."


I used to laugh at Isvestia.  The "Western" press is no better.

Gimp's picture

I was just getting used to/programmed to belive it was all "Bush's" fault.

Me brain can't take the "Sandy" fault or "Susan Rice" fault or "Bengazi made me do it" 

Please comrades tell me what to think....FORWARD



GMadScientist's picture

D'you think glaciers ever get tired of their trade being abused in the press this way?

analyzer_66's picture

welcome to the age where  B U L L S H I T   is now  B U L L I S H

stock market will rise at least 100 points on this news !

Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Is all we have to do is raise taxes some and that will improve the job numbers.


HurricaneSeason's picture

Do you want solar panel jobs or not? They'll be on sale after Christmas for $350,000 each.

Boilermaker's picture

ES down a full point!!!!

Boilermaker's picture's up now.

ptoemmes's picture

Whether it's Sandy's fault of not...

...if your means of transportatioon much less where you (used to) sleep and eat are gone then you might not have a job because you can't show up.

...if the place you worked no longer exists then you might not have a job.

Gives new meaning to the term outsourced (into the Atlantic).

Shame, though, on using this misery as an excuse for poor numbers instead of the truth.

I remember Andrew - visited it to help about 90 minutes away - pictures do not do something like this justice.  You have to walk in it - and smell it.



topspinslicer's picture

It's ok master obama is going to pardon the whitehouse turkey

JP McManus's picture

Some Japanese cattle won't be quite as lucky.

Urban Redneck's picture

Of cousre it's Bush's fault, he was just elect to a fourth term, matching FDR's statist record.

drivenZ's picture

anyone remember what happened during katrina? oh right, initial claims spiked. 


since everyone here believes the data is rigged anyways why wouldnt the administration just fudge the number to 375k or something innocuous? bueller, bueller?

analyzer_66's picture

its very easy to selectively rig data and the unemployment numbers have been bouncing all over the place all year, especially leading up the election.  If the BLS would simply stop making any and all seasonal "adjustments" to the numbers, a more accurate print would be possible but not probable.  Personally, I follow the shadow stats unemployment number and the U-6 rate. 

geoffr's picture

I wonder if the start of the Obamacare layoffs are included in these numbers. My guess is that the bloodletting has only just begun.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

The weather is the last resort of a scoundrel.


- Nouriel Roubini  


Better get those HAARP generators working at near 100% capacity. This administration is going to need quite a few more "natural" disasters to maintain "legitimacy".

Winston Churchill's picture

A precursor of much worse to come.

All my clients are now going  Galt, and moving capital out of the USA.

A few were doing it before, now the rest are following suit.


wagthetails's picture

But they told me disasters were good for the economy?  i guess they meant there is a i would assume jobless claims to decrease substantially over the next 3 months.  HOORAY!!!! 

Curt W's picture

Laid off all those campaign people holding signs and knocking doors.

GeezerGeek's picture

The surge must be due to all those recently released campaign workers.


jeff314's picture

just like the Cenus a few year ago...

brettd's picture

Clearly now in a depression.

Since it's officially Obamas, we'll call it:

The "O-Pression."


Ox's picture

Could it be that Krugman was wrong about broken windows?


GMadScientist's picture

Depends. How fast can we train new glaciers?

Winston Churchill's picture

Good luck with that ,or did you mean glaziers ?

semperfi's picture

Going per plan for The Kenyan Thug, who's plan is to "return the (USA's) wealth to its rightful owners", ie, the rest of the world who 'we've been ripping off for decades'.   Of course these numbers are yet again (as always) a LIE - too low.  Real unemployment rate ~24%.

GMadScientist's picture

55T and counting. He must just suck at the redistribution part.

jplotinus's picture

Wait, Tylers, the main issue has been missed, and missed badly.

The ue claim spike follows hard on the heels of the Red State secession drive that prominently featured a threat of mass layoffs if Obama were selected over Romney. The election wasn't even close. Obama creamed Romney.

And, right after Rove failed to reverse the Ohio outcome on Fox, the previously announced layoff threats began.

Right here on ZH, a poster kindly started a list of company layoffs enabling us to know who to boycott and who to sue for possibly illegal political reprisals, not to mention the unpatriotic intentional damage to the economy caused by spite layoffs.

You know, the worst part of this oversight is that it lowers the quality of ZH analysis to the Fox level.

The worst part of laying off people as a form of political protest is that it raises the question of how far are people willing to go to establish hegemony of Republicrats over Democricans and verse vicea?

A better perspective would have been one analyzing the effect of election reprisal, not Sandy.

Furthermore, when at a later date Republicrats blame Obama for job losses, it would be easier to dig out from the memory hole the fact that the layoffs result not from Obama's policies, but are the result of intentional infliction of economic harm based on political reprisal.

If I were a Republicrat, I'd think twice before trying to get away with that crap.

Too bad ZHers didn't see their way clear to making this connection without the need for my help.

You're welcome, bitchez

Gimp's picture

Like all arguments please introduce facts to support your thesis.

I am in business and the climate was bad before Obama was re-elected, after the election business sees nothing new on the horizon.

The FORWARD movement may encourage the socialist but not the captialist. 

More regulation and taxes will  speed up the departure of businesses to far away and friendlier locations - see Europe for future Socialist Utopia.




nodhannum's picture

So you got bored over at the DU and decided to come over here.

fuu's picture

So you've developed a foil for your other puppet MDB_?

adr's picture

Rove had the right numbers on Ohio. What he didn't have were the 250k+ fake ballots stuffed into Cuyahoga County boxes by poll workers. He also didn't know about the thousands of ballots from Republican leaning precincts that went missing.

The Harry Reid Nevada Miracle was the test run for Operation Obama 2012. Voter fraud hit new highs this time.

I don't know how else to explain a tax levy that was shot down by a vote greater than 25% six time in a row somehow passing by 1% this time. It was pretty obvious that a whole lot of votes weren't counted. I find it hard to believe you could reverse over 25% of the vote in one year.

Now everyone with a home has to pay an extra $40 a month for the "Children's Services" for ghetto blacks. The system was running low on cash after the property taxes dried up and the wave of massive forclosures. For the past three years we voted the tax increase down, yet somehow this time it passes with the lowest total vote cast for that initiative yet.

dexter_morgan's picture

Yeah, good thing you straightened us out comrade. si se puede!

De minimus's picture

I'd call you an idiot but then we both know who and what you really are.   laugh while you can.

takinthehighway's picture


...apparently you've forgotten about the defense contractors which were going to lay off workers in October...until Obama told them that the gov't would pay their penalties if they waited until after the election..., 49 of the 50 states have filed secession petitions, so I'm reasonably sure that covers a few "blue" states...

...but don't let facts get in the way of your partisan rant.

Totentänzerlied's picture

"The worst part of laying off people as a form of political protest"

Congratulations on completely failing to understand why business owners would make decisions in reaction to real-world political events. Not like there's any relationship, right?

"enabling us to know who to boycott and who to sue for possibly illegal political reprisals, not to mention the unpatriotic intentional damage to the economy caused by spite layoffs."

Oh cry me a fucking river. "Sue for illegal political reprisals"? Give me a fucking break, do you totally lack any understanding of the concept of private property? If I want to fire my employees and my contract with them permits it, that is nobody else's business but ours. You seem to think people should not have to face the consequences of their moronic political actions, in this case destroying the real economy but expecting to keep their jobs. Good luck with that.

And just for kicks, please tell me which is more "unpatriotic" - a man running his business and having to make tough choices in order to make a living - and provide a valuable product or service to his customers without whom he'd be broke and jobless, or a scumbag progressive voter with a gigantic ego and a bleeding heart who believes it his rightful duty to dictate the businessmen and in general do everything in his power to run them into insolvency and destitution. Obviously there is no connection between voting for president a man who promises massive economic destruction and the sorry state of your employer's business which eventually compels your layoff - the notion is just insane, right, because actions have no negative consequences, ever, right?

"it would be easier to dig out from the memory hole the fact that the layoffs result not from Obama's policies, but are the result of intentional infliction of economic harm based on political reprisal."

This is absurd and absurdly stupid. You have obviously never operated a business. You are claiming that all these malicious businessmen are so incredibly stupid that they are willingly depriving themselves and their employees of their livelihoods as a mere useless political gesture. Just how stupid do you take the readers of your words to be? You expect me to believe that there is absolutely no way that a businessman, recognizing how awful economic conditions are, might react to them - in a way which you, an economic ignoramus, don't particularly like. And you think it impossible that said businessman, busy as he is operating his business in this environment, would never take note of the correlation between the state of his business and its market and the holder of the office of President of the United States, a person who routinely proclaims an authority and intention to influence the economy.

If I were you, I'd think once before penning such an asinine apologetic on behalf of your Obamessiah again.

Too bad you couldn't see that someone like me was on the way to eviscerate your ignorant drivel.

Boilermaker's picture

ES says..."I don't give a sh!t"

youngman's picture

and don´t forget the ones who will collect unemployment for the full 99 weeks..but still have a job or two....under the table of paying taxes is only for the 2% now..that is what Obama told them...

And for shedding a tear for people who live on a beach and never think a storm will affect them....oh well

adamas's picture

funny... if initial claims had fallen below expectations gold would have dropped $50 in two minutes, when its obvious CTRL-P is in the offing and a huge miss on initial claims gold wobbles and weebles , the banksters must be trying to hold the beach ball underwater... it will rise majestically soon

Boilermaker's picture

OK, here comes the FED.

Time to corn hole the market higher bullshitting today.  Hit the gas!

Strap yourselves's full throttle time!

surf0766's picture


Cassandra Syndrome's picture

And not one mention of this on the Diazepam Bloomberg home page. Muppets.

james larson's picture

In the report we notice the Sandy effects.  OK.  We get that.

The most curious statement in retrospect


OH +6,450   Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.