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Low Range, Medium Volume, High Anxiety

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Equity indices end the day marginally red as the machines tried every trick in the book to get markets up...(levering FX carry, spiking PMs, running HYG, spiking vol) to enable more selling - especially at the close when we saw notable size blocks being traded into that ramp to try and get green. VWAP was the anchor all day for S&P 500 futures (and since the synthetics are where the liquidity is - everything else followed) as stocks trend-reversed as normal on the EU close. In general volatility and high-yield credit had a significantly weak day but into the close managed to rise a little as risk-assets broadly recoupled with equity markets to close. Despite a lot of noise and chop stocks lost a little, Treasuries gained a little (-2bps on the week!), Silver scrambled back from its flash crash (but gold didn't do as well), and the USD ended today up a remarkably unchanged 0.04% (with EUR up 0.5% and JPY down 2.2% on the week). VIX ended back above 18% as AAPL just keeps falling with its 300DMA now in play.

 

Into the European close, ETFs across the capital structure remained tightly coupled. After that equities took off while VXX/HYG/TLT remained far less sanguine (but were later dragged up to close recoupled). Resyncing CONTEXT (our broad-based risk asset proxy) showed it not as affected (as we commented yesterday) as stocks - though again recoupling into the close.

 

The equity market took off - in its now ubiquitous trend-reversion into Europe's close...

 

Credit market's are decidedly less excited about today's relative quietness - though bounced this afternoon...

 

FX markets have been very dispersed this week... but the EUR vs JPY batle has maintained USD practically unch all week...

 

Is the 300DMA and 2009-onwards trendline the line in the sand for AAPL? Certainly seems like the last best hope...

 

OPEX tomorrow so might see some fireworks but interesting that we didn't see too much today.

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Is EUR strength due to repatriation?

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: What's the link between major Central Bank action and the market cap shifts that occur between AAPL and European banks...?


 


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Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

MILIGATE COMING TOMORROW. BLACK SWAN IMMANENT.

 

(and I apologize for calling it today as I confused testimony day -- tomorrow Patreaus testifies, if he makes it...)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment cifo
cifo's picture

If that happens, you are a god. If not, you lost your credibility.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

cifo: no worries either way. i shared what i could just as head's up. no need for cred or status, esp here in zh.

 

anyone who did short planet did okay today in terms of indices. 

 

and who else reports that Obummer hangs with Will Smith at his place in LA day after historic storm? that be deep recon ;)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Oh no. You don't get it.

The REAL secret plan is, to issue silver forehead plates engraved with the cumulative number of ZH up arrows. 

The raging mobs after Das Kollapze (c) are to let those of us with sufficient ZH cred pass unmolested.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

I will give you all some more info:

 

 

1. We all know that the Patreaus sex scandal information was known since summer. (If you think Obama et. al. did not know this for many months, then you probably think this is Patreaus' first infidelity.)

2. Said information was held by the Obama administration as BLACKMAIL.

3. When Romney lost, there were many power players that still need Obama out. (More importantly, they need a set of conditions to converge, and Obama scandal is more beneficial than even a Romney win to achieve said conditions.)

4. These power players RELEASED the BLACKMAIL INFO just after the election. (There is a reason they didn't do it before the election - extrapolate as you may.)

5. Patreaus is no longer BLACKMAILED by the sex scandal, but he is being leveraged by OTHER BLACKMAIL that will allow him to spill the beans tomorrow.

 

 

That is all I can say at this point. Take it as you will. And peruse my posts from yesterday if so inclined re: Watergate scandal and market tendencies during that time and multiply by insane Fed, structurals, or lack thereof, Israel purposely stoking hell just after election and several other high-ranking players getting called out tomorrow and we have a massive clucksterfuck of epic proportions!

 

Edit: another coincidence, another condition, or?: The Federal Reserve is asking 30 big banks to make sure their capital can withstand a deep recession in which the unemployment rate rises to 12%.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

It's behind closed doors I believe. Probably little to no impact on markets. At least until the MSM leak cycle next week.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

possibly. but the black swan starts tomorrow. when the markets get it, that is technicality. SHORT THE PLANET.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is buying gold a good short on the planet?

You have me intrigued cast-dom.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

VD says make flight into hard assets good. Gold & silver especially. 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I can't edit my comment, my apologies for scewing up your name.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

no need to apologize. :)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Yesterday you said Black Swan today Bro............Could this be it??

 

Pentagon spends $1.5 million to develop new beef jerky...

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

hey i was crazy last night -- i meant Friday the day of actual testimony. don't eat jerky. judge it all if/when MSM or otherwise release that info. 

 

the secret beef jerky ingredient was developed by Patreaus a la Clinton's cigar. but that's gonna cost the taxpayer after all is said and done a hell of a lot more than a mere $1.5M. (it's a kind of umami rich robust savory taste like seaweed or msg.)

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

BTFC (C=Crater) is the new BTFD

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

AAPL is a store of value.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

and I can eat it.....oh wait wrong aapl

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 19:58 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

If you wear a black turtleneck sweater you can make a ponzi scheme go on forever

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Alhazred
Alhazred's picture

United States dollars are also good stores of value.

Hell a $50 gold buffalo trades for almost 2k federal reserve notes.

If only we were allowed to use actual United States dollars for trade

End the fed

http://wh.gov/XWkP
http://wh.gov/XWkP

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Look at the brightside....there is no brightside.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Low Range, Medium Volume, High Anxiety

Viagra commercial?

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i vwap-ed my big toe once. it hurt like hell.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Must have had Knight algos doing your execution buzzsaw,. Ouch.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Something since the election has changed. The forces in charge are no longer hitting the market like a piniata bouncing it up at any expense. The FED is mysteriously quiet. Perhaps these assholes are letting the market act normally. I am caustiously optamistic.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Karlus
Karlus's picture

Calm before the storm, my friend. They still plan on separating you from your money and wealth.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Tylers:

 

Whot's All Dis Den?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-15/fed-orders-largest-banks-to-tes...

Fed Orders Largest Banks to Test Against Deep U.S. Recession

 


 

The Federal Reserve told the 30 largest banks to test whether they could withstand a severe recession in the U.S. and other major economies with weakening housing markets.

The most severe scenario outlined by the Fed includes a nearly 6.1 percent decline in U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2013 and an average unemployment rate of as much as 12.1 percent in the second quarter of 2014. Real disposable income contracts for five consecutive quarters, and house prices fall 21 percent from the third quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2015.

The Fed will conduct its own tests on the 19 largest institutions, including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. The remaining 11 firms will test themselves and submit results to the Fed.

The Fed said the adverse scenarios were not forecasts and were “designed to assess the strength and resilience of financial institutions and their ability to continue to meet the credit needs of households and businesses.”

 

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Don't forget to price in the doubling or trippling of the price of fuel now that the bombing has started

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

LET'S TRY IT AGAIN TOMORROW!!!

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

You can see those buy blocks just watchinh the index ticks. When the market ticks up its always a few points at a time. When it ticks down its in fractions of a point, seldom more. Still, at leaset the master"baitor" manipulators are getting their asses kicked. Problem is, their asses are getting kicked but theri using our money.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

The best thing TPTB could do is replace market avatars with almost naked women, then you have to buy so many stocks/bonds to see her fully naked. If you buy an asston you get her phone number. Mega-asston and she goes to your house for one hour. If we're going to pimp out the US economy, lets do it right.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

The market should be pricing in war + companies falling apart + oil spike that accompanies the middle east exploding + inflation eating up Sandy's victims.

Fiscal cliff lol...

http://youtu.be/_cKMINzYbrU

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 03:57 | Link to Comment cgagw
cgagw's picture

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