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Tyler Durden's picture

It was only a few short weeks ago when we noted the interesting analogs between AAPL's rise and the exponential exuberance of MSFT in the late 90s and NFLX this year. Sadly, for the long-suffering momentum-chasers, things have gone a little pear-shaped for Apple as it has followed, far too accurately, the same path from exuberance to realization. Where to next? MSFT says 'a bounce to be faded'; NFLX says 'dump it all'...either way $400 is in play for AAPL - back to the start of the year... cue fundamental defense of what is quite clearly a behavioral exuberance having played out.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Oxygen's picture

Hope AAPL fall under 490 for tomorrow. Got some puts on it.

vast-dom's picture

it's all Sandy's fault. even the fast approaching Milligate... i was under impression that Patraeus testifies TODAY. It's tomorrow. Tomorrow is the big day.

Dalago's picture

Is there a performance that shows strong negatively correlation to AAPL's performance?  Or this may just be systematic risk...

AldousHuxley's picture

google partnered with samsung to take larger share of smartphone market than apple who's key supplier is samsung.

 

matter of time.

 

 

 

 

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

steve jobs is dead and they fired the only guy with some charisma they had

 

soon he'll be in google

pods's picture

Pear shaped=The Hildebeast.

pods

N. B. Forrest's picture

It's all George Bush's fault.

slaughterer's picture

BUT ... the holiday shopping season is upon us... iPad minis for everyone.

Skateboarder's picture

Tim from supply chain will write you a personal thank you note for buying his iCrap this year.

Bananamerican's picture

i've been a mac dude since 1998...never bought any stock...just...bought mac stuff.

well made, user friendly, underdog to MSFT, better aesthetic etc...

Apple minus Jobs IS MSFT.

That's why the stock is tanking so hard...People just needed to see the product cycle proof before dumping.

my two mac cents

Smiddywesson's picture

"That's why the stock is tanking so hard...People just needed to see the product cycle proof before dumping."

 

Any explaning that includes a discussion of Apple misses the point.  I think the real lesson to learn here is latter stage rock and roll stock idiolatry has nothing to do with the product, the person, or the story.  It runs its course and it collapses of its own weight. 

Whether the company is great and has a billion potential customers in China, the best product line in it's industry and virtually no competitors, it still has to crash because the phenomenon has nothing to do with the company and everything to do with how the market works.   

adr's picture

Apple's pro desktops were really well made, but seriously overpriced. The iMacs were total garbage locked into proprietary parts nobody would ever stock.

When Apple accepted X86 Intel processors and stoppd putting an extra pin on ram and the hard drives, it helped. But Macs were always more about making a statement that you were cooler that PC users because you had a Mac. It was so cool to pay double the cost for a Mac compatible 2GB hard drive and Mac RAM. Not to mention the monitors that required an expensive cable adapter if you happened to accidently buy a PC version.

I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly. It never really changed from the late 80s. Apple got the reputation of being more user freindly from the DOS days, but Windows actually surpassed the Mac OS in usability with the USB edition of Windows 95. In college all of the graphic design students kept believing in Mac superiority until a PC lab was put in for CAD programs. Almost immediatly the lab filled up with graphic design students when thy found the PCs to be faster and much better at multitasking. No more closing Illustrator when you needed to open a large photo in Photoshop.

Apple has always been a cult more than a company. Jobs personified that. Apple is not Microsoft without Jobs, it is a company that has lost its cult leader. If the leader dies, the cult disbands because there is nobody to believe in anymore. For a short time the cult thinks it can go on with a new leader, but when that leader can not show the same charisma that inpires blind devotion, it's over. Be happy though, instead of drinking cyanide punch, they just get to lose every penny invested in AAPL.

Vince Clortho's picture

"... I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly. It never really changed from the late 80s..."

 

Too funny and stupid to discuss.  lol.

nodhannum's picture

@Vince, agreed.  I ran a lab at a major government research lab and the wintel support people were always trying to have all the macs taken out and have us imprisoned by MSFT.  We had about 50-50 Macs and Intel machines (I am talking thousands here) and to service the machines we had three wintel support people for every mac support person because the mac were so easy to clean up etc., that all the post docs could do it on their own.  I guess the wintel folks felt like the people making horse shoes in the early 1900s when they saw the first autos.  Just trying to protect their jobs.  If you want to know why apple has the wintel/linnux ppeople in a tizzy, just go to an apple store and see the mobs of older folks who don't the how to program their way to the "secret cult nirvana" the way the linnux cult does and you know why they fear the iMac or whatever aple makes.  You sense the same fear the elites in the feudal era did when the printing press was invented and more and more people were able to read...a threat to the elite...in those days the miedeval "savants" and now the techies.  God help us if grandpa and grandma can use a computer.

Ballin D's picture

Theyre great for grandmas and children and even the masses.  50% of people are dumber than average.  As long as you dont really know what youre doing and dont want to learn, there is little debate that macs are better if you're willing to significantly over pay on hardware and lose some level of compatability (although this isnt much of an issue any more).

For those who like to think and tend to take on more personal responsibility, I see an advantage for Windows.  Those Apple training wheels are great for the bottom masses but the 'middle class' of the computing world end up carrying the burden because they lose quite a bit of productivity and functionality.

Interestingly, I find that the top half a percent or so of computer literate people excel with macs.  They learn to manipulate the system and use the training wheels in very interesting ways.

Your opinion may differ but this is what I tended to see working in tech support.  There are always exceptions.

blunderdog's picture

These days, if you want to learn something REALLY useful, get a Mac and learn BSD, which'll give you far more control over the system than any Windows build ever could.

TWSceptic's picture

I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly.

 

Obviously you have never used a single Mac in your entire life.

Marco's picture

What has changed with the product cycle since Jobs left?

With or without Jobs there is no field left in which a tweaked iPod/iTunes can be positioned any more. Other than that schtick most of the iX product cycles were evolutionary, Retina and Siri were uncommon outliers and given their rarity it's way too early to say that Apple has become unable to differentiate themselves in that way.

JustObserving's picture

Hope AAPL fall under 490 for tomorrow. Got some puts on it.

Are you a terrorist that you buy puts on Apple?  America is about motherhood, free phones, Honey Boo Boo and Apple.  Besides, if Apple really falls, you can be sure that Uncle Ben will print a few hundred billion to save Apple and American hedge funds and the Israeli investment.

Never buy puts in a market manipulated to go higher.

DeadFred's picture

There will be a whole bunch of stops lurking right under the May lows of 522. If that level breaks you will wish you had puts. Besides you are still thinking preelection style. Obama and the banks now want the market to go down to put pressure on congress to make a deal and of course to knock the hedge fund competitors out of the market.

JustObserving's picture

Sorry, i think you are delusional to think that are markets are free and devoid of intervention.  If that had been the case, our markets would be 50% lower and the VIX would be 50 to 60 instead of 18.51.

Whenever the fall in US equities gets serious, there is serious intervention.  If the US stock market were to fall 50%, the dollar would fall too and the dollar ponzi scheme would be over.  So they cannot let US equities fall.  The Bernanke put is at least 10 times larger than the Greenspan put.

DeadFred's picture

I'm sorry if I came across as if I think the markets are devoid of intervention. In fact I believe it is primarily driven by intervention. What I believe is that the intervention has changed since the election. The ones who own the banks and the Fed and thereby the government want more goodies, power and control. The strategy now (IMO) is to crash the market and get the government to cut a deal that's good for them and have the Fed give them more goodies to use gobbling assets at a discount once again. If they can drive some of the pesky hedge funds into oblivion all the better. Their HFTs will have even more control with fewer player creating noise.

If I were one of those driving the bus I would tank AAPL with about an hour until close and set off a wave of margin call tomorrow. I have money riding on this hypothesis so Friday will let me know if I'm delusional or not.

JustObserving's picture

I generally agree with you.  But I do not think that Obama will try to crash markets for leverage in negotiations,  He is owned by Wall Street,  Besides, it is too risky.

Thanks for a very gracious reply for my rather brusque post. 

GolfHatesMe's picture

This is what happens when Liberty Street stops buying a stock. 

Randall Cabot's picture

It's been a while since we've seen a short-crushing ramp into the close but it looks like one is brewing.

Stoploss's picture

I came up with a way to diffuse the initial shock of taking out the note in public.

When in a crowd, i say, "please excuse me, while i whip this out".

Of course the first thing the women want to do is touch it..  Some things never change.

Zen Bernanke's picture

A bubble by any other name is still a bubble.

Gordon Freeman's picture

So AAPL's correction is the poster boy for all that is wrong in the world?  Note to self: markets don't go straight up--got it!  

Thanks, TD, for once again stating the obvious...

mick68's picture

Poor wounded delusional bull drank too much Obama/Bernanke Kool-aid and now his tummy hurts.

Au Shucks's picture

By the look of your avatar, it is no wonder you miss the point so easily.  Might be time for new perscription Slaveman

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

My kid wants a Samsung phone for Christmas.

Apparently, so  does everyone else: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=samsung%20galaxy

BLOTTO's picture

They should make the Apple logo just a stem and a leaf

ParkAveFlasher's picture

I have a $30 Samsung phone.  The keypad is tits, the battery is forever strong, and it takes abuse. 

Apple has nothing in that price range.  You can only swing for the fences for so long before you go ARod, that is, you drug yourself into power for years and when the drugs ebb, you struggle to hit line drives on two busted hips. 

adr's picture

My three year old son pulled my GalaxyS out my pocket and threw it on the driveway. It was then kicked face down across the concrete. The battery flew out but once I put it back in, the phone powered up and still works flawlessly. Got a couple nicks on the plastic case, but the screen didn't get a scratch.

An Apple product would have been dead on the first drop.

cifo's picture

An Apple product would have not been dropped :)

Marco's picture

An Apple product would have an intentional weak point inside they could use to detect the G forces applied to the device to deny you warranty ;) (I kid, all companies want to screw you out of your warranty ... Apple is nothing special.)

nodhannum's picture

Yeah, I heard HH...the ObamaPhoen.  Old news.

Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Not really - the market is yet to catch up with Samsung.

 

Samsung's tech and functionality has already beaten Apple pretty well amongst the geeks.  Presumably the money will follow.

 

If nothing else - the Note is way better for viewing porn on the go.  That is a primary driver, you best believe.

 

Razor stubble has never been so stubbley!

mjorden's picture

Full Page Starbucks advertisments? really? but mission accomplished, wife and I will be getting the Gingerbread latte this weekend.

Stackers's picture

Probably following the MSFT curve, since like MSFT and unlike NFLX, AAPL actually makes something.

Toolshed's picture

Apple makes nothing. They design it and then hand over the design to an Asian entity to manufacture for them like Samsung and FoxCON for example ( one batch for Apple - one batch for us, one batch for Apple - one batch for us). What could go wrong? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Even better, they then sue their suppliers when they start copying the design for their own use. Who would have thought those clever Asians could be so.........well, clever. Crapple nearly destroyed themselves when they were the kings of the home computer market. Seems they are what we call slow learners.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

This is point is accurate.  +1

Extrapolating on that, many businesses in many industries that rely on branding and image and copyrighted design are taking note of what is happening to Apple regarding market share threat from what are essentially rebranded knockoffs.  It is not the knockoff that necessarily inflicts the damage, it's the opportunity created by knockoff-run interference in the market that the Samsungs of the Asian world can exploit.  Once the brand cachet of Apple is dispelled by the knockoffs, which perform nearly to Apple spec, Samsung is pulled into the consumer's limelight by the suck of the market undertow. 

Vietnam, Afghanistan, when will we learn never to fight in Asia over land, be it acres of plantations, poppy fields, or even those few inches of space on store shelves?

geoffr's picture

I think MSFT at its peak, which was part of the .com bubble, had a P/E of 88. AAPL had a peak P/E of 15. And that's the difference.

People like to badmouth Apple here and it's cool to badmouth a company that has done well, etc., but if their stock is a bubble then everything is a bubble (including gold).