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It was only a few short weeks ago when we noted the interesting analogs between AAPL's rise and the exponential exuberance of MSFT in the late 90s and NFLX this year. Sadly, for the long-suffering momentum-chasers, things have gone a little pear-shaped for Apple as it has followed, far too accurately, the same path from exuberance to realization. Where to next? MSFT says 'a bounce to be faded'; NFLX says 'dump it all'...either way $400 is in play for AAPL - back to the start of the year... cue fundamental defense of what is quite clearly a behavioral exuberance having played out.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Hope AAPL fall under 490 for tomorrow. Got some puts on it.
Bubble burst?
it's all Sandy's fault. even the fast approaching Milligate... i was under impression that Patraeus testifies TODAY. It's tomorrow. Tomorrow is the big day.
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Is there a performance that shows strong negatively correlation to AAPL's performance? Or this may just be systematic risk...
google partnered with samsung to take larger share of smartphone market than apple who's key supplier is samsung.
matter of time.
steve jobs is dead and they fired the only guy with some charisma they had
soon he'll be in google
Pear shaped=The Hildebeast.
pods
It's all George Bush's fault.
No, the nazis'.
BUT ... the holiday shopping season is upon us... iPad minis for everyone.
Tim from supply chain will write you a personal thank you note for buying his iCrap this year.
i've been a mac dude since 1998...never bought any stock...just...bought mac stuff.
well made, user friendly, underdog to MSFT, better aesthetic etc...
Apple minus Jobs IS MSFT.
That's why the stock is tanking so hard...People just needed to see the product cycle proof before dumping.
my two mac cents
Any explaning that includes a discussion of Apple misses the point. I think the real lesson to learn here is latter stage rock and roll stock idiolatry has nothing to do with the product, the person, or the story. It runs its course and it collapses of its own weight.
Whether the company is great and has a billion potential customers in China, the best product line in it's industry and virtually no competitors, it still has to crash because the phenomenon has nothing to do with the company and everything to do with how the market works.
Apple's pro desktops were really well made, but seriously overpriced. The iMacs were total garbage locked into proprietary parts nobody would ever stock.
When Apple accepted X86 Intel processors and stoppd putting an extra pin on ram and the hard drives, it helped. But Macs were always more about making a statement that you were cooler that PC users because you had a Mac. It was so cool to pay double the cost for a Mac compatible 2GB hard drive and Mac RAM. Not to mention the monitors that required an expensive cable adapter if you happened to accidently buy a PC version.
I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly. It never really changed from the late 80s. Apple got the reputation of being more user freindly from the DOS days, but Windows actually surpassed the Mac OS in usability with the USB edition of Windows 95. In college all of the graphic design students kept believing in Mac superiority until a PC lab was put in for CAD programs. Almost immediatly the lab filled up with graphic design students when thy found the PCs to be faster and much better at multitasking. No more closing Illustrator when you needed to open a large photo in Photoshop.
Apple has always been a cult more than a company. Jobs personified that. Apple is not Microsoft without Jobs, it is a company that has lost its cult leader. If the leader dies, the cult disbands because there is nobody to believe in anymore. For a short time the cult thinks it can go on with a new leader, but when that leader can not show the same charisma that inpires blind devotion, it's over. Be happy though, instead of drinking cyanide punch, they just get to lose every penny invested in AAPL.
"... I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly. It never really changed from the late 80s..."
Too funny and stupid to discuss. lol.
@Vince, agreed. I ran a lab at a major government research lab and the wintel support people were always trying to have all the macs taken out and have us imprisoned by MSFT. We had about 50-50 Macs and Intel machines (I am talking thousands here) and to service the machines we had three wintel support people for every mac support person because the mac were so easy to clean up etc., that all the post docs could do it on their own. I guess the wintel folks felt like the people making horse shoes in the early 1900s when they saw the first autos. Just trying to protect their jobs. If you want to know why apple has the wintel/linnux ppeople in a tizzy, just go to an apple store and see the mobs of older folks who don't the how to program their way to the "secret cult nirvana" the way the linnux cult does and you know why they fear the iMac or whatever aple makes. You sense the same fear the elites in the feudal era did when the printing press was invented and more and more people were able to read...a threat to the elite...in those days the miedeval "savants" and now the techies. God help us if grandpa and grandma can use a computer.
Theyre great for grandmas and children and even the masses. 50% of people are dumber than average. As long as you dont really know what youre doing and dont want to learn, there is little debate that macs are better if you're willing to significantly over pay on hardware and lose some level of compatability (although this isnt much of an issue any more).
For those who like to think and tend to take on more personal responsibility, I see an advantage for Windows. Those Apple training wheels are great for the bottom masses but the 'middle class' of the computing world end up carrying the burden because they lose quite a bit of productivity and functionality.
Interestingly, I find that the top half a percent or so of computer literate people excel with macs. They learn to manipulate the system and use the training wheels in very interesting ways.
Your opinion may differ but this is what I tended to see working in tech support. There are always exceptions.
These days, if you want to learn something REALLY useful, get a Mac and learn BSD, which'll give you far more control over the system than any Windows build ever could.
I always found the Mac OS to be a hinderance to workflow and extremely user unfriendly.
Obviously you have never used a single Mac in your entire life.
What has changed with the product cycle since Jobs left?
With or without Jobs there is no field left in which a tweaked iPod/iTunes can be positioned any more. Other than that schtick most of the iX product cycles were evolutionary, Retina and Siri were uncommon outliers and given their rarity it's way too early to say that Apple has become unable to differentiate themselves in that way.
Hope AAPL fall under 490 for tomorrow. Got some puts on it.
Are you a terrorist that you buy puts on Apple? America is about motherhood, free phones, Honey Boo Boo and Apple. Besides, if Apple really falls, you can be sure that Uncle Ben will print a few hundred billion to save Apple and American hedge funds and the Israeli investment.
Never buy puts in a market manipulated to go higher.
There will be a whole bunch of stops lurking right under the May lows of 522. If that level breaks you will wish you had puts. Besides you are still thinking preelection style. Obama and the banks now want the market to go down to put pressure on congress to make a deal and of course to knock the hedge fund competitors out of the market.
Sorry, i think you are delusional to think that are markets are free and devoid of intervention. If that had been the case, our markets would be 50% lower and the VIX would be 50 to 60 instead of 18.51.
Whenever the fall in US equities gets serious, there is serious intervention. If the US stock market were to fall 50%, the dollar would fall too and the dollar ponzi scheme would be over. So they cannot let US equities fall. The Bernanke put is at least 10 times larger than the Greenspan put.
I'm sorry if I came across as if I think the markets are devoid of intervention. In fact I believe it is primarily driven by intervention. What I believe is that the intervention has changed since the election. The ones who own the banks and the Fed and thereby the government want more goodies, power and control. The strategy now (IMO) is to crash the market and get the government to cut a deal that's good for them and have the Fed give them more goodies to use gobbling assets at a discount once again. If they can drive some of the pesky hedge funds into oblivion all the better. Their HFTs will have even more control with fewer player creating noise.
If I were one of those driving the bus I would tank AAPL with about an hour until close and set off a wave of margin call tomorrow. I have money riding on this hypothesis so Friday will let me know if I'm delusional or not.
I generally agree with you. But I do not think that Obama will try to crash markets for leverage in negotiations, He is owned by Wall Street, Besides, it is too risky.
Thanks for a very gracious reply for my rather brusque post.
This is what happens when Liberty Street stops buying a stock.
It's been a while since we've seen a short-crushing ramp into the close but it looks like one is brewing.
I came up with a way to diffuse the initial shock of taking out the note in public.
When in a crowd, i say, "please excuse me, while i whip this out".
Of course the first thing the women want to do is touch it.. Some things never change.
Nice gap @ 400-425
A bubble by any other name is still a bubble.
So AAPL's correction is the poster boy for all that is wrong in the world? Note to self: markets don't go straight up--got it!
Thanks, TD, for once again stating the obvious...
Poor wounded delusional bull drank too much Obama/Bernanke Kool-aid and now his tummy hurts.
By the look of your avatar, it is no wonder you miss the point so easily. Might be time for new perscription Slaveman
My kid wants a Samsung phone for Christmas.
Apparently, so does everyone else: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=samsung%20galaxy
Samsung still has some way to go:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=galaxy%20s3%2C%20iphone%205&cmpt=q
The Next Big Thing is Already Here
They should make the Apple logo just a stem and a leaf
I have a $30 Samsung phone. The keypad is tits, the battery is forever strong, and it takes abuse.
Apple has nothing in that price range. You can only swing for the fences for so long before you go ARod, that is, you drug yourself into power for years and when the drugs ebb, you struggle to hit line drives on two busted hips.
My three year old son pulled my GalaxyS out my pocket and threw it on the driveway. It was then kicked face down across the concrete. The battery flew out but once I put it back in, the phone powered up and still works flawlessly. Got a couple nicks on the plastic case, but the screen didn't get a scratch.
An Apple product would have been dead on the first drop.
An Apple product would have not been dropped :)
An Apple product would have an intentional weak point inside they could use to detect the G forces applied to the device to deny you warranty ;) (I kid, all companies want to screw you out of your warranty ... Apple is nothing special.)
Yeah, I heard HH...the ObamaPhoen. Old news.
Not really - the market is yet to catch up with Samsung.
Samsung's tech and functionality has already beaten Apple pretty well amongst the geeks. Presumably the money will follow.
If nothing else - the Note is way better for viewing porn on the go. That is a primary driver, you best believe.
Razor stubble has never been so stubbley!
Full Page Starbucks advertisments? really? but mission accomplished, wife and I will be getting the Gingerbread latte this weekend.
Those are tasty.
Probably following the MSFT curve, since like MSFT and unlike NFLX, AAPL actually makes something.
Apple makes nothing. They design it and then hand over the design to an Asian entity to manufacture for them like Samsung and FoxCON for example ( one batch for Apple - one batch for us, one batch for Apple - one batch for us). What could go wrong? HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Even better, they then sue their suppliers when they start copying the design for their own use. Who would have thought those clever Asians could be so.........well, clever. Crapple nearly destroyed themselves when they were the kings of the home computer market. Seems they are what we call slow learners.
This is point is accurate. +1
Extrapolating on that, many businesses in many industries that rely on branding and image and copyrighted design are taking note of what is happening to Apple regarding market share threat from what are essentially rebranded knockoffs. It is not the knockoff that necessarily inflicts the damage, it's the opportunity created by knockoff-run interference in the market that the Samsungs of the Asian world can exploit. Once the brand cachet of Apple is dispelled by the knockoffs, which perform nearly to Apple spec, Samsung is pulled into the consumer's limelight by the suck of the market undertow.
Vietnam, Afghanistan, when will we learn never to fight in Asia over land, be it acres of plantations, poppy fields, or even those few inches of space on store shelves?
I think MSFT at its peak, which was part of the .com bubble, had a P/E of 88. AAPL had a peak P/E of 15. And that's the difference.
People like to badmouth Apple here and it's cool to badmouth a company that has done well, etc., but if their stock is a bubble then everything is a bubble (including gold).
Tyler,
Please consider the above as "fullretard quote of the day"!
Even MDB would have a hard time forming something as good as this one.
AAPL has viable competitors nipping at its heels. It must innovate or die. And its Chief Innovator is dead.
MSFT is effectively a monopoly.
Law of large numbers comes into play for Apple at this point.
With 1/2 Trillion in market cap, they have to grow Equity $60B / year with their current PE. Growing market value by $60B is, highly unlikely, just from a pure mathamatical basis.
It's not like Apple is producing some life sustaining product, or something that is absolutely indespensible. Consumer products are, by definition, subject to wide swings in consumer demand. Apple is at the threshold of transforming from high-growth to consumer cyclical.
idon't care
But it's different this time...oh wait...
I feel a bath-salt style margin call event coming.
This wouldnt be so bad with a gold standard and no Federal Reserve.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and...
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
This wouldnt be so bad with a gold standard and no Federal Reserve.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and...
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
This wouldnt be so bad with a gold standard and no Federal Reserve.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and...
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/end-federal-reserve-system-and-adopt-gold-or-bimetal-standard/LS4BGH5Z?utm_source=wh.gov&utm_medium=shorturl&utm_campaign=shorturl
Well, it's only one stock.
oops.
the hicups suck, eh alhazred?
<Oops>
<hmmm>
EXACTLY!
Kind of a spaz, ain't ya? :>D
Lookin for Yield in all the Wrong places.
Dump it all
Stawks are hawt.
Freebase base jumping anyone? http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=YtsRGYsBo5o&feature=endscreen
Don't you just want to drag every sell side analyst and self appointed blowvine market expert who said AAPL was undervalued at $650 into a town square next to a big pile of rocks, and let the local citizens decide their fate?
OK maybe the rocks are a bit harsh. Just let people slap them in the face as many times as they see fit.
I've got dibs on the first crack at Cramer.
geez.. I think I'll hold on to those 2/13 AAPL P390's a bit longer.
At a P/E of 12, Apple is not a bubble.
"P/E"...lol! Thanks Uncle Warren.
You guys keep following tyler like little doggies haha. AAPL P/E at the top: 19, MSFT P/E at its top 80+
Microsoft EV/FCF was 200+ at top of the bubble, AAPL's was 23 at the top.
If you ignore these facts then please go do something else.
Those facts should not be discounted.. in a stable and honest market where fundamentals are of primary importance.
Agree, but you can't say that because we are in a crazy market, fundamentals don't matter AT ALL.
They don't. Case in point Amazon.
Ok, Amazon IS a bubble. AAPL, is not
Um.. maybe I was a little too subtle in the sarc.
And Anna Nichole Smith married for love.
If you strip out the cash on the balance sheet the PE is a lot lower. It's on a foward of PE of about 8 based on consenus earnings forcasts for 2013. However, it will continue throw off huge amounts of cash with the new product of mix. Net income last year was just over $40 billion. A repeat performance would see the company with around $170 per share of cash by this time next year, with likelyhood that cash on the balance busts throught the $200 per share mark the year after. This won't be popular with the naysayers and end of the world doom merchants here, but who cares about them.
I think the trend is at around 450 myself.
The more I look at it, the more I'm inclined to agree. I called $400 on another board about a month ago, and was summarily banned, for blasphemy.
Fundamentally nothing has changed and we maintain our $1000 12 month target and have raised APPL from buy to ultra stong buy and the stock remains a core holding in our portfolio.......said the dumbass analyst.
just went long AAPL. Wish me luck.
Good day to load up. We did too. $525.50.
Just bought more silver. Don't wish me luck...don't need it.
A good time to buy, these geniuses wouldn't have bought when it was at $90.
Kevin Henry just hit the short button for the first time, lol
"I'll show those ZeroHedge bastards, muwaha"
A little tippling music for a falling apple.
http://www.youtube.co/watch?v=WUHy_TfkN38
Pears are in season more than apples. 400 bux bought more in january than in Nov... Go figure.
long Samsung and Chinese and South Korean currency.
apple went pear-shaped. i get it now! funny funny
Hurry! Bring out the maxi pad to stop the bleeding!
Apple to the moon! Apple forecast is $1000.00/share according to Mittens...60,000,000 I-Phones still to be purchased for each and every voter that voted for Obama.
Chipotle, Darden, Green Mountain Coffee, Starbucks, Apple...
So many stocks that in the past two years have been like semi-talented rock bands on Pop Radio; fads and hype not quite equal to their underlying talent and sales.
Samsung, the world's largest technology company by sales have a P/E of 11.72 and worth one third of the market cap of Apple with a P/E of 12 ??? I really don't understand these P/E numbers.
Apple makes the margins, other people make the products ... it's genius isn't it?
I don't see how they can make 59% iPhone margins and 32% iPad margins with all these apple fancy store and other extra costs !?! The iphone and the galaxy are at the same price, I'm sorry, I don't get it.
Apple only sells high margin products and most of the time has the top spot in sales ... they dominate high end phones at launch, they dominate high end laptops, they dominate mid/high end tablets. They have far more ability to profit from bundled plans with carriers than Samsung has as well, Samsung could only compete with Apple late in the iPhone 4 product cycle and 5 is going to dominate them again ... also most of Samsung's other products are in far lower margin markets.
Really only Google with the Nexus 10 is a real danger to Apple ... Samsung is eternally playing catch up.
Wow, at this rate, Apple will become quite the bargain by New Year's...
AAPL follows the movement of the NASDAQ100 and to a lesser degree the SP500.
It is more probable that a stock will follow its index rather than go against its index.
Notice how Apple followed the NASDAQ100 in August. http://bullandbearmash.com/nasdaq100-helps-forecast-top-aapl-apple/ And the same applies today.
Apple's top was identifiable back in September of this year if you followed the NASDAQ100.
I think you got it backwards.
I see a near-term bottom approaching. Sold my puts today. I expect it to rally back over $600 to maybe $640. If I am right, we will see lower volume going into it...probably retail people who think it is a great buy. At that point we will all realize that a perfect head and shoulders pattern has been completed.
Will will see $350-380.
And the semi's are about to collapse.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=W&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p51882504125&a=274916941
Ah yes, the classic ZeroHedge "Two Brightly Colored Graphs Overlaid Means One Is Going To Do The Same Thing As The Other".