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Guest Post: Ceilings, Cliffs And TAG - 3 Immediate Risks

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,

 


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Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

All of that is wrong.  None of those matters can trigger the global credit default swap tsunami that can flow from a Greek and/or Spain default.

The sell off is because Greece has re-assumed its place in the headlines.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I'd say the sell-off was because every Bull was invested in the market and had no chips left

..or maybe the algos ran out of micro-chips

Unless you're a public-private scam I doubt anyone gives a crap about the fiscal cliff, Govt could go tits up tomorrow and nobody would notice. Companies are not dependent on Govt, it's quite the reverse for the State dependencies in DC

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

All you guys who still work are fucked

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
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WTF. Where do all these people come from claiming "things are likely to get worse" before a "resolution of the fiscal cliff" is established," when in reality, things are going to get worse from a fundamental, macro & micro economic vantage point no matter what or what doesn't happen regarding the "fiscal cliff?"

The "fiscal cliff" is immaterial. It's a non-issue. It's a fruit fly or even smaller gnat on an 800-lbs Gorilla's ass. It's a sell-sider's straw man AND a sell-sider's red herring.

We're actually in an economic depression that's merely being hidden by deficit reliant government spending and a GDP bump that is an illusion as it's generated by debasement of currencies/fiat printing (consumption is falling in real terms, but prices are rising much faster than that consumption is falling, in real terms).

The U.S. and many developed & emerging economies are contracting, and have been, for some time.

To understand what this now clearly entrenched, long term trend does to equity markets, pull up a chart of the Nikkei, circa-1989 forward.

There aren't/can't be any exceptions to what you'll see; the product of debt dependent "faking the numbers" until reality calls the bluff.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

100 % correct 'TIS'... The global economies are contracting. Putting a band-aid on U.S. spending issues has nothing to do with lack of global demand.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Just to be clear, I meant to write that:

 

...because prices are rising in real terms at a rate higher than official BLS garbage in-garbage out equations indicate, GDP can still be shown to be flat or expanding, even if real consumption AND real productivity are falling...

 

It's important to be precise when discussing such technical matters.

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Thanks "TIS", I appreciate that. Your original post was crystal clear for me... ;-)

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

+1

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

The scary thing is there seems to be only about 10,000 people on the planet that grasp what you are saying and even less that give a rats ass.

I talk to PhDs all day long who couldn't explain QE if their life depended on it.

Blows my mind!

I've been locked into SPXU, 3x short S&P 500 for 13 months now saying evry quarter "they won't fall for this shit again will they?".

What do you know they take it hook line and sinker.

The only place I see Greek fire is right here on ZH!

The msm has the whole fucking planet on lockdown.

+100 for your insight.

 

 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

They call QE "printing money" 99% of the time, even Zero Hedge. It's not, it's writing bad checks.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

At the outset of this piece, the author states that Obama's re-election is not the reason for current broad market weakness -- then, he goes on to ennumerate all the Obama-specific negatives which _will_ negatively impact the market.

Yet more 'Street dissonant jabberwocky.

-1

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:11 | Link to Comment Midas
Midas's picture

That was as far as I made it into the article.  He says it wasn't the re-election, but all the shit that is not going to get fixed because of the election.   Beg pardon?    I will give him this, it wasn't just Barry who got re-elected,  the rest of the do-nothing congress is back too. 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Cameli
Cameli's picture

The recent market sell-off has not been about the re-election of President Obama but rather the repositioning of assets by professional investors in anticipation of three key events?

Really? And Obama and his cronies have no influence on these three key events? I got this far and quit. Utter dipsticks.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

(bent over, straining)

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Fredo Corleone
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Knukles, you're going to give yourself a hernia.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

More likely hemorrhoids!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

"Not about Obama"?

Would Romney have kept the Bernank?

No huge fan of Romney, but NOT about Obama? Not even some?

I guess it all still Bush's fault...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:15 | Link to Comment Midas
Midas's picture

They may stop blaming Bush soon.  I saw this link on drudge:  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83979.html

 

The AFL-CIO pres is blaming Romney and his Bain-style buddies for the failure of Hostess.  So maybe Romney can take the heat for the next four years.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

We are likely into a bounce early next week, but after that, we are heading down once again.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-shows-upward-momentum-week/

 

The devastation has only started - poor folks at Hostess - all 18500 of them.

 

 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 04:50 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

"Let them bake cakes"

M. A. (sans head)

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Seriously? $32.50 an hour and pension for working at the twinkie factory? They didn't want to take a cut to their pensions and closed it down. The union will give them 2 years of wages as severence and the government pension guarantee corp will bail out their pensions. They probably wanted it to close. McDonalds sales were down last month for the first time in 10 years, so they'll be looking at Wendys when their severaence and unemployment run out, but still it'll be a long vacation.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

"Obama stated repeatedly during the Presidential debates that he would ... "

Is Lance Roberts so naieve that he takes a campaign promise as an honest commitment? Especially Obama with his track record?

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

 

 

 

 

"Obama stated repeatedly during the Presidential debates that he would ... "

 

Doesn't. Mean. Shit.

 

Telepromter-driven means never needing to remember one's position, promises OR alliances.

 

 


Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment dbTX
dbTX's picture

"...the investment professionals are headed for the exit", yeah to the exits that lead to where the PM's are

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment sasebo
sasebo's picture

pardon, se vous plait ------

the only thing that makes a shit is the fuckers producing stuff  --- non-crooked entrepeneurs & indians  --

obamer, bernanke, diamond, et al are all delusional, useless assholes.

when the producers stop producing  ---

that's it --------- keep an eye on the producers  ---------

without them there's no guvmunt, banks, wall street, army, navy, police, economists, bloggers, tv, internet, nothing  -------  

don't believe it? try growing some fucking tomatoes ------- 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment Ginsengbull
Ginsengbull's picture

0bama killed the stock market the first time he won the presidency.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I agree with Bill Fleckenstien’s take:

“If you liked the last four years you’re going to love the next four years because it’s going to be more of the same only worse.” 

 (KWN 11-14-12)


Fri, 11/16/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

All these factors have not escaped the stock market.

 

Today, by closing down, the Transports have flashed a primary bear market signal.

 

Not a good omen for the stock market.

 

Here you have the details:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-afte...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

The election is over and now it's time to stick it to the taxpayer while the Obamas go on their next vacation using AF-1.

How ironic that Romney invented Obama care, vowed to get it repealed if elected, and now it will be his legacy even though he didn't win?

So food prices are going up and we woill be making less. The tax increases will be nullified for the working man through lower gas prices because of the slower economy. The rich are really going to get it though.

Fuck Congress. 

 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 03:21 | Link to Comment Silversem
Silversem's picture

Sellof or not. I don't care becouse i make money either way COPY TRADING

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment polo007
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http://www.randycass.com/blog/five-things-i-learned-this-week-november-18th-2012/

According to Morgan Stanley:

First, Governments are in a fiscal mess because of pro-market policies over the last couple decades (Less regulation, lower taxes, etc…)

Second, they need to transfer that mess to the private sector by reversing the investor friendly policies that contributed to the current situation.

Third, because politics are as polarized as they have ever been, this process will be lengthy and full of uncertainty and drive people to hold less risky assets until it is completed.

In short, Investors are in the awful position of waiting for multiple shoes to drop but are faced with uncertainty about when and how those shoes will kick them in the rear. If you believe in the thesis none of it bodes well for earnings or multiple expansion going forward.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 04:16 | Link to Comment ozzz169
ozzz169's picture

crap... pure crap, obama re elected meant major unsurtanty for the future and a surely anti business environment, and great for bond because Helicopter ben and his policy stay.  run up before election was unplaced faith that 50%+ of the country has not been replaced with brainwashed mindless degenerates, they were wrong.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 05:46 | Link to Comment davidgdg
davidgdg's picture

" Reduced defense spending is almost a given but that will have a direct, and negative, impact on economic growth. "

Nonsense. Defense spending is the ultimate Keynsian pork barrel. The idea that spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year on foreign wars and high tech toys is good for the prosperity of Americans as a whole is beyond stupid.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:15 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

You would not be able to sit at your little computer and type this drivel if it was not for the military inventing the internet.....and your wi fi...navigation...thousands of items you use today come from the military...your computer is one by the way...the planes you fly your fat ass on...there are bad people out there that want to kill us....you should know that...google the middle east...so we always have a military...and I hope the best in the world...because a lot of the world hates everything but Muslims...

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Yeah, 1 guy, 1 year, connected 2 computers with a wire. He couldn't have done it unless he was wearing a funny hat and a medal. Thing is, how many millions are on the tit, this year(and for the rest of their lives) when you include the contractors? What if all that effort was used for something constructive, other than rebuilding Iraq and blowing it up again. There are the side issues too. They were going to purchase hundreds of cargo planes from italy(that nobody wanted) in order to get Italy to be pro coalition(like we need italy) to the tune of $30-$50 million each. Pro coalition so we look good bombing people in mud houses with machetes and gas cans and civil war rifles, which we don't bomb very often over 10 years either. Now the 21 planes that were delivered are going onto the scrap heap to rust since italy wont honor any maintainence contract if we try to sell them since we broke the contract. Huge waste of resources. Certainly not the only example of material resources the military simply throws away without even planning the next mess. The planes weren't even a year old. Time to close down some of the 700-800 foreign bases(they don't even know how many) like Ron Paul wanted to do and not build hundreds more in the Asian theatre. China has nukes, there's no reason to take a bb gun to a bomb fight.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 06:43 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I'm glad I already have most everything I need, and low bills too.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:10 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

From Yahoo...interesting

 

POLL

What moves are you making ahead of the fiscal cliff?

I'm selling stocks (12790)
 15%
I'm buying stocks on the dip (18898)
22%
I'm buying gold (5999) - your vote
7%
I'm investing overseas (1857)
2%
I'm doing nothing (44699)
54%
Sat, 11/17/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What garbage. There is no "fix", period. Stop right there. The world's economies are contracting as 99% of the EARTH does not have additional WAGES to spend or invest.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Too much uncertainty. That's usually due to a lack of leadership. That's Obama.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Here's another member of the Ministry of Backstops about to join the bailout club with FHA. The PBGC ( Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. ) has gone $ 34B in the hole.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/pension-benefit-guaranty-corp-running-34-billion-deficit/2012/11/16/7c1a54da-303a-11e2-9f50-0308e1e75445_story.html?hpid=z3

  

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

this is arse about face. 

the US is already over a fiscal cliff. 

these so called "tax hikes" and "benefit cuts" represent monies that should have been in place all along to NOT put the US further in debt that it cannot pay back via federal deficit funding,

these tax hikes and benefit cuts are necessary because the banks have been bailed out by the tax payer. that is what a bail out means. the bail-outs must be paid.

the banks should be shut down and any remaining capital should be returned to the federal government, which is after all the agent of the tax payer.

new banking laws, probably along the lines of those recommended by Volcker can be set down, using the knowledge gained from the abusers of power (the powers that fuck up = ptfu) like baldheaded monsters from goldman sachs.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

That's just great, now they're taxing tanning. I'm going fishing Monday and it's suppose to be in the 70s and sunny. I'm taking sunblock for a long day. Am I suppose to hire an expert to figure how much to send them and what is the penalty if I'm wrong? I knew they were going to put chips in cars to charge for being in the high occupancy vehicle lane or speeding and such, are they going to put chips in our shoes to charge us for sun? I vote no.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 23:15 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

Is this the lousiest recovery of all time?

Check it out: The number of people currently on food stamps in the US is at a record-high of 47.1 million. That’s more than twice as many recipients than in 2007 when the crisis began. And the percent of Americans living below the poverty line has skyrocketed, too. It’s gone from 12.3 percent in 2006 to 16.1 percent today. According to the Census Bureau, nearly 50 million people in America are now living below the poverty line. In other words, if you’re poor in America your numbers are growing and things are getting worse. Some recovery, eh?

And it’s not just the poor who are hurting either. The middle class is getting clobbered, too. Unemployment is still way too high (7.9 percent) and, according to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances, middle income families have seen nearly 40 percent of their net worth go up in smoke since 2007. The bulk of the losses are attributable to the giant housing bust of ’07 which wiped out $8 trillion in home equity leaving the majority of baby boomers unprepared for retirement. It’s a desperate situation that no one seems to want to talk about, but the reality is that millions of people are going to have to figure out how to scrape by on next-to-nothing or work until they’re too senile to punch a clock. As far as these folks are concerned, the recovery is just a big joke.

So who’s really benefited from the so called recovery?

Well, that’s a no brainer: Wall Street and the 1 percenters, that’s who. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has pumped enough uber-cheap money into financial markets to fill a small ocean, all with the clear intention of keeping stocks bubbly so his fatcat speculator friends can cream the system and take home even bigger bonus checks. The Fed’s quantitative easing program has sent stocks into the stratosphere, in fact, all three major US indices have more than doubled since the program was first launched in 2008. There’s only one drawback; it doesn’t do jack for the real economy. Oh, and another thing, its effect on stocks is only temporary, the equivalent of a sugar rush.

.....

Bernanke’s smart enough to know that more-of-the-same (QE) won’t get the economy back on track. He knows that Koo is right. But that doesn’t mean there will be a change in policy. There won’t be, mainly because QE reinforces the caste system where all the goodies go to the silk-stocking hotshots at the top and everyone else gets table scraps. It’s just plain old class warfare. And, guess what: their class is winning.

http://www.albanytribune.com/16112012-welcome-to-the-lousiest-recovery-of-all-time-oped/

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