Silver To Climb 38% In 2013 - "Possibly Over $50/oz" Say GFMS

Tyler Durden's picture

From GoldCore Gold Bullion

Silver To Climb 38% In 2013 - "Possibly Over $50/oz" Say GFMS

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,710.00, EUR 1,342.76, and GBP 1,077.91 per ounce. 
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,723.50, EUR 1,351.45, and GBP 1,087.66 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $32.32/oz, €25.48/oz and £20.46/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,554.50/oz, palladium at $624.80/oz and rhodium at $1,095/oz.

Gold fell $11.00 or 0.64% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,714.00. Silver slipped to a low of $32.166 and finished with a loss of 0.15%.

 Silver ETP Holdings Climb 0.4% to Record 18,853.6 Metric Tons

Gold and silver have traded a bit lower on Friday and are both heading for a loss of 1% on the week in dollar terms. This is to be expected after the 3% and 5% returns of last week and the trading action this week has all the hallmarks of consolidation.

Interestingly, the sharp falls seen in the Japanese yen this week have created the unusual situation of gold and silver prices being nearly 1% higher in yen terms while lower in most fiat currencies.

The jobless claims numbers were higher than expected (439K vs 338K) yesterday and Superstorm Sandy’s wrath may have worsened an already weakening US economy. Unemployment benefits grew by 78K for the week ending November 10th.  

Many of those who lost their jobs were unable to immediately file claims due to the dislocation caused by the storm.  Sandy led to over 100 deaths, left no power in many homes, curtailed rail or subway services and insurance losses estimated are between $20 billion and $50 billion.

US industrial output figures for October are published at 1415 GMT.

If the US fiscal cliff isn’t sorted out it will weigh on the dollar and benefit gold however the fiscal cliff is just the preliminary bout in many challenges facing the $16.15 trillion indebted US economy.

The CME Group cut margins on gold and silver futures contracts in a bid to ignite trading interest which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Gold demand is still strong.  The SPDR Gold Trust holdings grew to 1,339.616 tonnes by Nov. 15, just a tad off the record high of $1,340.521 tonnes hit in October.

John Paulson kept a major stake in gold in Q3 2012, a confidence boost to bullion's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty, a US regulatory filing showed on Thursday. 

While John Paulson kept his current stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), Soros increased his holding in the gold trust by 49% to 1.32 million shares.

Soros and his team, unlike many “experts”, clearly believe gold is not a bubble and will protect and grow his wealth in the coming years.

Silver in USD 5 Years – (Bloomberg)

Paulson, who became a billionaire in 2007 by wagering against the subprime mortgage market, owns about 5% of the SPDR Gold Trust, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing for third- quarter holdings showed that Paulson & Co., the largest investor in the ETP, kept its stake at 21.8 million shares. While Bacon’s Moore Capital Management LP acquired 1.8 million shares in Sprott Physical Gold Trust last quarter.

While buying shares in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, Moore Capital cut holdings in the SPDR Gold fund by 20,000 shares to 100,000 last quarter.  Patrick Clifford, a spokesman for New York-based Moore, declined to comment on the filing. Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, did not reply to an e- mail sent by Bloomberg.

Their liquidation of the SPDR Gold Trust is an interesting development and one which might be seen more often of in the coming months due to concerns about the counter party risk in the SPDR Gold Trust.

Scout Capital Management LLC boosted holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust by 525,000 shares to 1.14 million shares, a filing showed yesterday.

Global ETP holdings reached a record 2,596.1 metric tons on Nov. 8 amid speculation that stimulus efforts will increase as the U.S. faces a so-called fiscal cliff of $607 billion in tax gains and spending cuts next year should Congress fail to act.

Gold Silver Ratio Quarterly – (Bloomberg)

Thomson Reuters GFMS has published research that says they project silver prices to rise 38% in 2013 from current levels, as a sluggish global economy increases safe haven demand.

The bullish silver GFMS forecast was published on the Silver Institute website yesterday and is unusual as the GFMS have been quiet bearish on silver in recent years despite rising prices.

Philip Klapwijk of GFMS said that “a rebound in investment demand stemming from continuing loose monetary policies is expected to drive silver prices towards and possibly over $50 during 2013.” 

Spot silver has risen over 17% this year overtaking gold’s 10% gain, and paving the way for its third consecutive rise in four years.

"Strong investment demand, higher gold prices on the back of monetary easing, rising inflation expectations and the persistence of ultra-low interest rates," are among the factors that will lure buyers to the safety of silver,” said Philip Klapwijk of GFMS.

"We are thinking prices will trend higher next year. I'm not convinced that we are going to $50. I think we will definitely see $40 to $45 prices."

Strong silver demand is seen by the increase of 4.5% in holdings of the iShares Silver Trust, the largest silver backed ETF (see chart above).

Klapwijk said, "In China, for example, jewellery demand is growing at a double digit pace," and predicts silver prices to trade between a low of $30.90 and a high of $36 for the rest of 2012.

Weaker industrial fabrication demand for silver is due to cuts in solar power subsidies in Europe which decreased demand from the electronics field and photovoltaic end users hence increasing the silver supply. In addition mine production has climbed 4% in 2012 said Klapwijk.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- IShares Silver Trust Holdings Fell 45.17 Tons as of Yesterday
Silver holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, declined to 9,985.18t, according to figures on the company’s website.

(Bloomberg) -- Gold Set for Record in India on Trend Signal: Technical Analysis 
Gold futures in India are poised to advance to a record in two to three months as the Raff Regression Channel indicates a rally, according to technical analysis by Kotak Commodities Services Ltd.

“It is time to buy as gold is trading within C1 and C in the channel, which shows positive trend,” said Mumbai-based Dharmesh Bhatia, associate vice president at Kotak, referring to the two trend lines which define the regression channel. Futures may touch 32,600 rupees ($593).


Gold inches down; global economic uncertainty weighs - Reuters

CME lowers gold, silver, copper, natgas margins - Reuters

Swiss firm to build $18m gold refinery, bullion plant in Singapore – Asia One

State won't pay in gold or silver - Politico


VIDEO: Smart Money Billionaires Buy Gold; "Small Investors Have Spent Their Money" - Bloomberg

VIDEO: Gold Council: Middle Class Will Boost Gold Demand: Video - Bloomberg

Fiscal Cliff, Asian Currency Wars, Buoys the Gold market - GoldSeek

High gold prices push many Indians to silver - Mineweb

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GetZeeGold's picture



Just give me a couple seconds here.


OK....let'er rip.

fonzannoon's picture

You know what is interesting? Paulson owns 5% of the GLD etf. Kyle Bass said "if 4% of the people ask for delivery they don't have it". Paulson is getting liquidated big time. I wonder if some circumstance ends up with Paulson asking for delivery and bankrupting the comex. That would be something.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes.  Nothing really scary will happen until the paper world really starts to disconnect from the physical market.  This is the only thing that really scares the bernanke.  There clearly isn't enough gold in the world to cover all the claims of ownership.  The question is, just like MF Global, who will eventually get to take delivery?  For example, will that be you, me, or the Chinese? Lots of tough talk from everyone, but still relatively little calls for delivery and little action for those who have already been burnt.

fonzannoon's picture

I have no doubt it will be Uncle Sam that takes delivery from the comex and every major hedge fund. That's the big stash and thats easy pickens. They won't want to waste their time looking down the barrel of a 12 gague  of the people on here for a bunch of maple leafs.

francis_sawyer's picture

Get ready for some more MF Globals... Since Corzine is still free maybe he's working on some advisory boards behind the scenes as we speak...

BaBaBouy's picture

GOLD $50K and SILVER No Doubt Well Into The 3 Digits, Bitchez...

PeaceMonger's picture

At that level it won't even be priced in TP.$  It will be what goods can I trade for?  If you don't hold it, you don't own it.  

Dr. Engali's picture

Does the comex have any to take?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

I hope I'm that one little golden straw that breaks the camel's back stacking.  Me and my shoebox and my nifty hiding spot and my spare salary.

Alpo for Granny's picture

There are two ways I look at silver and gold..the Fiat equivalent and the peace of mind value. The first will get me through the collapse and once on the other side enable me to trade it for real estate and other tangible goods. The second is the peace of mind that I have knowing that my labor is converted to something that these crooked cock suckers cannot rehypothecate. They can't steal my labor from me and buy their trophy wives the latest BMW or a ski chalet in the Alps. And that ladies and gentlemen is how I sleep well at night after the Matlock reruns and a nightcap of Sleepytime tea.

Dr. Engali's picture

Does sleepy time tea have a shot of Jack in it? An evening with Matlock and Jack Daniels?

Alpo for Granny's picture

Actually I prefer a splash of Knob Creek with my Celestial seasonings sonny. And if that doesn't work grandma has a prescription for medical marijuana.

Dr. Engali's picture

I prefer a shot of Crown in my sleepy time tea...along with an episode of Everybody Loves Raymond.

FEDbuster's picture

My ammo cans full of brass, copper and lead allow me to sleep well knowing I have the ability to defend my silver and gold.  Don't forget to "stack" the other precious metals, and the means to insure a targeted physical delivery, too.

kliguy38's picture

HA!.......Paulson wouldn't last 5 seconds if he makes a move on the boyz........."hear attack"......"self inflicted wound"......

debtor of last resort's picture

In that case Paulsons losses will be made good by the FED. In fiat. Through the Caymans. Ssssttt.

Robot Traders Mom's picture

I've enjoyed buying at these low levels...Blythe has been a physical buyer's best friend.

achmachat's picture

a lot of us feel like you... but don't you think that it's time for the springs to unload and the prices to go up? I mean... I don't know about you, but I'd really like to start buying myself some goodies and treats now; and it would hurt too much to change some metals into spendable currency at these depressed prices.

Robot Traders Mom's picture

Good things come to those who wait...

Banjo's picture

Unless you piled in at 1900 then these prices are not depressed.


Kaiser Sousa's picture

until the only other form of "real money" is in triple digits or on par With Gold a reflection of its "true" intrinsic value in debt coupon dollars is still a long ways off...i still buying until that day arrives...and in closing as always let me just say -









jomama's picture

if you believe that JPM is naked shorting the metal and all the claims about its actual scarcity due to industrial uses, shouldn't the 'fair market value' should be much, much higher than 50 bennybux a TO?

youngman's picture

I think that "MOMENT" is getting closer...the new Asian markets I hear are taking delivery to get themselves started...and the new vaults around the world want the real thing....and Countries like Germany and many others I think are asking for their metals......this could be a very interesting year..

LoneStarHog's picture

GFMS -- The Goldman Sachs of precious metals ... Nuff said!

Whatta's picture


Look, I own a lot of silver - physical and paper - and lesser gold and believe everyone should own some BUT...

...these asshat forecasts are always wrong. How many times in the last two years have these calls that gold and silver are going to go to a Billion....and then nothing.

And you hear the stories, but really, does anyone have concrete proof that the government (via the FED or prime dealers) is shorting gold and silver?

Dr. Engali's picture

So the government can manipulate every other market except for precious metals in your mind? Do you believe that there is anything the government tells the truth about? Why would they start with the competition to their fiat currency?

LoneStarHog's picture

Proof? What the hell do you think that GATA has been doing for the last TWELVE YEARS?

JustObserving's picture

so-called fiscal cliff of $607 billion in tax gains and spending cuts next year should Congress fail to act

This is the fiscal cliff that is so threatening?  US debts increase about $1.5 trillion a year and unfunded liabilities rise about $6.8 trillion a year and everyone is worried about $607 billion reduction will derail the US economy?  Is there any chance that the US does not default?

falak pema's picture

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned; watch out for Lady Blythe.

She works for the biggest whore house of status quo and potential WMD of fiat dump.

It scares the Bejesus out of those TPTB political shills, fronts to TBTF cabal of which she be prime mover. 

She has immense fire power and manipulative skills. And where we are in this game is ALL or NOTHING, so don't count on bringing her down in death by a thousand cuts.

That game is their speciality; not yours. 

A PM ramp of any large magnitude has to be in Paper, held by the PD depositors, not in freely held physical.

That's too dangerous as its a nail in the coffin of greenback reserve. Not on, unless the whole fiat shooting match is out of control. I guess the fiscal cliff and the Euro cliff on Greece/Spain will tell us more on timing of fiat/asset market free fall; if it occurs in 2013 or later.  

THe Chinese politburo on the other hand will define in the coming months their stand on creditor monetary policy, so vital to maintain status quo. It could be big gamechanger in currency war, as in PM safe haven status.

Copper price is a good indicator on their real economy commodity strategy; more so than gold IMO for their reserve haven strategy.

Silver as second fiddle alternative ???

Is the run from fiat really on, ALREADY? 

GetZeeGold's picture



Stands for friend of a friend of ANOTHER.


We've met.

Being Free's picture

Nice of CME to lower initial and maintenance margin req's for Silver and Gold futures.  Effective cob next Tues 11/20.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Margin req's = volume knob on the manipulation stereo system

Bastiat009's picture

"I am telling you, what I am selling will be much more expensive soon, you should buy it now."

Those marketing folks should get more creative but then again being creative requires work and brain.

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Silver to climb 38% ? I highly doubt it. 2013 will be ugly for stocks and we know silver will get liquidated, it happened before.

I'll take the opportunity to buy some more because we will get to a mania stage sooner or later. Besides gold and silver is the only real money.


paulbain's picture




I am very disappointed that Turd Ferguson no longer comments on these silver stories here on ZH. Apparently, he reserves his comments for his own web site:

-- Paul D. Bain




DaveA's picture

Before going long on metal, ask yourself, where is its Shadow Inventory, and what sort of event could bring it to market?

Gold SI is cast into 400oz ingots and stacked in the vaults of central banks. Silver SI is cast into tea sets and silverware and stored in old ladies' kitchens. Who will be forced to liquidate first? The central bank with no soul and a license to print money? Or the hungry old lady whose pension and savings are getting wiped out by inflation?