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Stocks End Green; AAPL Volume Obscene; Treasury/FX Volatility Unseen

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Equities closed the day-session near the highs of the day as OPEX shenanigans were evident everywhere. Early and ugly macro data was swept under the proverbial carpet (as it is transitory Sandy effects?), the ubiquitous European-close trend reversal started us higher, and then platitudes from D.C., and a late-day Fed-Head jawbone did the rest on a day when AAPL saw its largest volume in 8 months and pinned between 520 and 530 VWAPs. Risk assets did not follow the path of most exuberance that stocks did on the day (surprise). Credit tracked with stocks today in general but remains an underperformer on the week. Oil was the week's big beta winner with the USD (despite underlying dispersion in EUR and JPY) and Treasuries rather dull. Gold sagged but by the close today the S&P 500 had recoupled with the barbarous relic on a beta basis. VIX compressed (exciting some that are incapable of comprehending a term structure) as put overlays were unwound into OPEX (and given the VWAP/volume moves it would seem AAPL saw hedges taken down and exposure reduced). Red week as stocks continue to catch down to bond's new normal.

 

Equities surged away and retraced and then surged away agin into the close relative to a much more subdued road risk market...

 

but on the week Gold and stocks recoupled (again), Treasury yields and the USD recoupled (and were quiet), as Oil surged...

 

but the USD ended the week up a mere 0.2% (with JPY down 2.25%) amid very low realized vol...

 

AAPL was a major driver today (as always) with huge flows in stocks and options (impacting index price and vol)... evidently the algos were in charge as yesterday's VWAP and today's kept us pinned around $525 for OPEX...

 

and here is today's implied vol move for AAPL - this is put implied vol collapsing as overlays are unwound into the close (and theta effects obviously from OPEX). Notably unlike in the index - where vol positions were rolled and we saw outer dates rise - AAPL's longer-dated vols did not rise which somewhat confirms our suspicion (given the skews) that the world and his pet giraffe eric loaded up on puts on the way down to protect their overweight positions and then used today (see volume above) to unwind hedges and reduce size in the underlying...

 

AAPL is now underperforming broad equity indices from the mid-May lows of the year...

 

but remains a big winner from the start of the year (for now)...

 

Year-to-date, Gold and Silver remain the winners and the US long bond has now overtaken European stocks once again... +5% YTD.

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Commodities look like they went full-retard this week - with a US-open-to-EU-close cardiac arest every day... margin-calls anyone?

 


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Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

OT:  Looks like the HFTs want some THCs:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/marijuana-dispenser-stock-gets-3000-hig...

"shares surged 3,000% this weeklol

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

BAD ROBOT!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Never did like green apples.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 Volume Obscene

 

Just another term for blow-off.

 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.geeky-gadgets.com/walmart-employees-breaking-ipads-11-11-2012/

 

It's okay, Apple is going to have the highest returns on Black friday.  The employees have been treating it's products with the proper respect.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Want weekend reading? Check out my newly updated presentation, detailing how PPT and UBS have built up an Australian multibillion dollar ponzi empire, using crossheld companies with manipulated share prices, and paying dividends out of share issues:

http://s1144.photobucket.com/albums/o489/_DrBenway/The%20Great%20Austral...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Buck O Five
Buck O Five's picture

Thanks for this

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Well done.  Looks like they took a page from Canada on the matter of fleecing investors.

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

well, if gold and silver were sold do to margin calls, then I would say they held up very well.

 

On a side note, SHLD, what a beat down. can believe I forgot about this one.....damn!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

$.03 to $250 in less than a month. Apple needs to make a logo change to a pot leaf with a bite taken out of it.

Medbox did lose 95% of its value today. Someone somewhere made a killing on Wednesday though. Think of all the pot you could have bought yesterday if you held shares at $.03 and sold when the stock hit $250 if the trade was actually authorized.

Seriously, what the capital F.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Am I supposed to look at any of that and believe I should throw all my cash into equities right now?

If that's the goal, Bennie is doing a terrible job.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

That's only because you must have some problem with fiat/fraudulent markets.  To Bennie, fiat/fraud and markets go together like pb & j...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

"Am I supposed to look at any of that and believe I should throw all my cash into equities right now?

If that's the goal, Bennie is doing a terrible job."

 

Poleaxed by that statement ADR.  The first thought that came through my mind is a market is like an employee.  Who in their right mind would hire a coked out psycho like the equity market has been?

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Stocks End Green; AAPL Volume Obscene; Treasury/FX Volatility Unseen"...

Tyler's Comments are Keen...

 

You have a great gift for rhyme:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqDLZKJGqgU

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

A twinkie for me....

A twinkie for you.

Oh Shit...they went bankrupt.

Now what the fuck to do.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Well at least VIXY was down. It's good to know there are somethings you can count on.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

S&P futures closed on the magic number.

 

The bernak has your back, just dont bendover!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bank of Israel still has to sell more AAPL to fund the war.

Doug Kass will get another opportunity on CNBC to declare yet another AAPL “generational low” (after he has already declared three “generational lows”: ~580, ~$540, and ~$520).

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Bought a little of that Apple dump again...as uncomfortable as it was.  Hedged it by selling a consumer name that is up 98% this year...an unrepentant stock whose earning peak has come and gone.  Best I could figure today...this week...one that was quite hard to figure due to what was certainly a ton of margin call pressure.

It is definitely martini time.  Good grief [and by that I mean dry, dry, dry martini]

Additionally:  LOL...full retard commodities.  Indeed.  The sell pressure in gold miners this week was just unreal.  Someone is betting that the PMs are coming off hard soon.

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Comes the crash (which should be shortly) - I'll take commodities over CrApple any day!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Bought Apple at 506.50 today.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes, we are well aware how much you love AAPL.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

He probably hates apple just like me , and he will also sell it at 620 just like me....

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

That was a good buy, congrats. Seen the bottom.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The BoI must have decided to double down on AAPL.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment GRsilverking
GRsilverking's picture

Screw stocks & Apple, I just got my new ZH T-shirt & cap delivered. 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:00 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

stupid move, if shit happens the way you want, they will knock on your door first...get white, black and safari t shirts you moron.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Defiant1968
Defiant1968's picture

which consumer stock was up 98% Please

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

That would be...wait for it...Whirlpool [WHR].  

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Ladies and gentlemen,

A primary bear market signal has been flashed by the Dow Theory today.

The Transports closed down today and violated its 09/28/2012 secondary reaction lows. By doing this a primary bear market has been flashed.

Not a good omen for stocks. The odds favor the downside rather than the upside.

Here you have the details:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-16-...

 

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Interesting....but how does the Dow Theory hold water in a rigged casino?

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:01 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

just about every theory has been broken the last 5 years...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Love th end of day wrap up. Thanks Zero Hedge.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 01:57 | Link to Comment Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

"Gold sagged but by the close today the S&P 500 had recoupled with the barbarous relic on a beta basis."

 

Please note that the term "barbarous relic" always has been and always will be a term used solely for the purpose of referring to Dick Cheney.  By the way, his first name is Harvey.  They just call him "Dick" because he's... well... you know.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 03:28 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

You need to read Keynes again, it's always better than making fun of first names, as stupid as they may sound.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Silversem
Silversem's picture

It's a difficult market for investors to make money in, but a very good market for (good) traders. Copy trading is the way to use the expertise of the best traders fot your own benefit.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 04:02 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.randycass.com/blog/five-things-i-learned-this-week-november-18th-2012/

According to Morgan Stanley:

First, Governments are in a fiscal mess because of pro-market policies over the last couple decades (Less regulation, lower taxes, etc…)

Second, they need to transfer that mess to the private sector by reversing the investor friendly policies that contributed to the current situation.

Third, because politics are as polarized as they have ever been, this process will be lengthy and full of uncertainty and drive people to hold less risky assets until it is completed.

In short, Investors are in the awful position of waiting for multiple shoes to drop but are faced with uncertainty about when and how those shoes will kick them in the rear. If you believe in the thesis none of it bodes well for earnings or multiple expansion going forward.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!