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Stocks End Green; AAPL Volume Obscene; Treasury/FX Volatility Unseen

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Equities closed the day-session near the highs of the day as OPEX shenanigans were evident everywhere. Early and ugly macro data was swept under the proverbial carpet (as it is transitory Sandy effects?), the ubiquitous European-close trend reversal started us higher, and then platitudes from D.C., and a late-day Fed-Head jawbone did the rest on a day when AAPL saw its largest volume in 8 months and pinned between 520 and 530 VWAPs. Risk assets did not follow the path of most exuberance that stocks did on the day (surprise). Credit tracked with stocks today in general but remains an underperformer on the week. Oil was the week's big beta winner with the USD (despite underlying dispersion in EUR and JPY) and Treasuries rather dull. Gold sagged but by the close today the S&P 500 had recoupled with the barbarous relic on a beta basis. VIX compressed (exciting some that are incapable of comprehending a term structure) as put overlays were unwound into OPEX (and given the VWAP/volume moves it would seem AAPL saw hedges taken down and exposure reduced). Red week as stocks continue to catch down to bond's new normal.

 

Equities surged away and retraced and then surged away agin into the close relative to a much more subdued road risk market...

 

but on the week Gold and stocks recoupled (again), Treasury yields and the USD recoupled (and were quiet), as Oil surged...

 

but the USD ended the week up a mere 0.2% (with JPY down 2.25%) amid very low realized vol...

 

AAPL was a major driver today (as always) with huge flows in stocks and options (impacting index price and vol)... evidently the algos were in charge as yesterday's VWAP and today's kept us pinned around $525 for OPEX...

 

and here is today's implied vol move for AAPL - this is put implied vol collapsing as overlays are unwound into the close (and theta effects obviously from OPEX). Notably unlike in the index - where vol positions were rolled and we saw outer dates rise - AAPL's longer-dated vols did not rise which somewhat confirms our suspicion (given the skews) that the world and his pet giraffe eric loaded up on puts on the way down to protect their overweight positions and then used today (see volume above) to unwind hedges and reduce size in the underlying...

 

AAPL is now underperforming broad equity indices from the mid-May lows of the year...

 

but remains a big winner from the start of the year (for now)...

 

Year-to-date, Gold and Silver remain the winners and the US long bond has now overtaken European stocks once again... +5% YTD.

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Commodities look like they went full-retard this week - with a US-open-to-EU-close cardiac arest every day... margin-calls anyone?

 

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Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:28 | 2989693 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

OT:  Looks like the HFTs want some THCs:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/marijuana-dispenser-stock-gets-3000-hig...

"shares surged 3,000% this weeklol

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:29 | 2989694 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

BAD ROBOT!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:00 | 2989808 redpill
redpill's picture

Never did like green apples.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 10:03 | 2991422 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 Volume Obscene

 

Just another term for blow-off.

 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2991888 CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.geeky-gadgets.com/walmart-employees-breaking-ipads-11-11-2012/

 

It's okay, Apple is going to have the highest returns on Black friday.  The employees have been treating it's products with the proper respect.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:43 | 2989814 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

Want weekend reading? Check out my newly updated presentation, detailing how PPT and UBS have built up an Australian multibillion dollar ponzi empire, using crossheld companies with manipulated share prices, and paying dividends out of share issues:

http://s1144.photobucket.com/albums/o489/_DrBenway/The%20Great%20Austral...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 22:25 | 2990545 Buck O Five
Buck O Five's picture

Thanks for this

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2991887 CPL
CPL's picture

Well done.  Looks like they took a page from Canada on the matter of fleecing investors.

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:02 | 2989815 Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

well, if gold and silver were sold do to margin calls, then I would say they held up very well.

 

On a side note, SHLD, what a beat down. can believe I forgot about this one.....damn!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:45 | 2989757 adr
adr's picture

$.03 to $250 in less than a month. Apple needs to make a logo change to a pot leaf with a bite taken out of it.

Medbox did lose 95% of its value today. Someone somewhere made a killing on Wednesday though. Think of all the pot you could have bought yesterday if you held shares at $.03 and sold when the stock hit $250 if the trade was actually authorized.

Seriously, what the capital F.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:30 | 2989703 adr
adr's picture

Am I supposed to look at any of that and believe I should throw all my cash into equities right now?

If that's the goal, Bennie is doing a terrible job.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:35 | 2989716 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

That's only because you must have some problem with fiat/fraudulent markets.  To Bennie, fiat/fraud and markets go together like pb & j...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:55 | 2989786 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

"Am I supposed to look at any of that and believe I should throw all my cash into equities right now?

If that's the goal, Bennie is doing a terrible job."

 

Poleaxed by that statement ADR.  The first thought that came through my mind is a market is like an employee.  Who in their right mind would hire a coked out psycho like the equity market has been?

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:53 | 2989714 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Stocks End Green; AAPL Volume Obscene; Treasury/FX Volatility Unseen"...

Tyler's Comments are Keen...

 

You have a great gift for rhyme:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqDLZKJGqgU

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 20:55 | 2990299 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

A twinkie for me....

A twinkie for you.

Oh Shit...they went bankrupt.

Now what the fuck to do.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:36 | 2989719 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Well at least VIXY was down. It's good to know there are somethings you can count on.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:37 | 2989724 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

S&P futures closed on the magic number.

 

The bernak has your back, just dont bendover!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:42 | 2989745 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bank of Israel still has to sell more AAPL to fund the war.

Doug Kass will get another opportunity on CNBC to declare yet another AAPL “generational low” (after he has already declared three “generational lows”: ~580, ~$540, and ~$520).

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:51 | 2989763 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Bought a little of that Apple dump again...as uncomfortable as it was.  Hedged it by selling a consumer name that is up 98% this year...an unrepentant stock whose earning peak has come and gone.  Best I could figure today...this week...one that was quite hard to figure due to what was certainly a ton of margin call pressure.

It is definitely martini time.  Good grief [and by that I mean dry, dry, dry martini]

Additionally:  LOL...full retard commodities.  Indeed.  The sell pressure in gold miners this week was just unreal.  Someone is betting that the PMs are coming off hard soon.

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 23:59 | 2990786 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Comes the crash (which should be shortly) - I'll take commodities over CrApple any day!

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 17:56 | 2989792 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Bought Apple at 506.50 today.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:02 | 2989818 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes, we are well aware how much you love AAPL.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 06:59 | 2991242 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

He probably hates apple just like me , and he will also sell it at 620 just like me....

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 09:46 | 2991406 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

That was a good buy, congrats. Seen the bottom.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:00 | 2989805 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The BoI must have decided to double down on AAPL.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:04 | 2989823 GRsilverking
GRsilverking's picture

Screw stocks & Apple, I just got my new ZH T-shirt & cap delivered. 

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:00 | 2991243 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

stupid move, if shit happens the way you want, they will knock on your door first...get white, black and safari t shirts you moron.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:05 | 2989827 Defiant1968
Defiant1968's picture

which consumer stock was up 98% Please

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:44 | 2989917 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That would be...wait for it...Whirlpool [WHR].  

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:29 | 2989888 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Ladies and gentlemen,

A primary bear market signal has been flashed by the Dow Theory today.

The Transports closed down today and violated its 09/28/2012 secondary reaction lows. By doing this a primary bear market has been flashed.

Not a good omen for stocks. The odds favor the downside rather than the upside.

Here you have the details:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-16-...

 

 

 

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 21:02 | 2990312 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Interesting....but how does the Dow Theory hold water in a rigged casino?

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 07:01 | 2991244 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

just about every theory has been broken the last 5 years...

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 18:52 | 2989925 Jake88
Jake88's picture

.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 19:14 | 2989973 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Love th end of day wrap up. Thanks Zero Hedge.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 01:57 | 2991007 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

"Gold sagged but by the close today the S&P 500 had recoupled with the barbarous relic on a beta basis."

 

Please note that the term "barbarous relic" always has been and always will be a term used solely for the purpose of referring to Dick Cheney.  By the way, his first name is Harvey.  They just call him "Dick" because he's... well... you know.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 03:28 | 2991111 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

You need to read Keynes again, it's always better than making fun of first names, as stupid as they may sound.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 03:25 | 2991108 Silversem
Silversem's picture

It's a difficult market for investors to make money in, but a very good market for (good) traders. Copy trading is the way to use the expertise of the best traders fot your own benefit.

Sat, 11/17/2012 - 04:02 | 2991143 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.randycass.com/blog/five-things-i-learned-this-week-november-18th-2012/

According to Morgan Stanley:

First, Governments are in a fiscal mess because of pro-market policies over the last couple decades (Less regulation, lower taxes, etc…)

Second, they need to transfer that mess to the private sector by reversing the investor friendly policies that contributed to the current situation.

Third, because politics are as polarized as they have ever been, this process will be lengthy and full of uncertainty and drive people to hold less risky assets until it is completed.

In short, Investors are in the awful position of waiting for multiple shoes to drop but are faced with uncertainty about when and how those shoes will kick them in the rear. If you believe in the thesis none of it bodes well for earnings or multiple expansion going forward.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!