Key Global Event Risks For The Next Five Years (The Known Unknowns)

Tyler Durden's picture


The world is awash with liquidity and yet, despite (or perhaps because of) this, the greatest potential impacts lie from downside risks. The combination of macro growth risks, major economy elections (2013 looks busy), and the plethora of central bank policy meetings over the next year (heavy December) leave a path ahead of forlorn hope - or exuberant anticipation - for many. Summary below...

Growth risks...


Election Events...


and the next 12 months of hope...


Source: SocGen

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:44 | 2994924 Kitler
Kitler's picture

To be fair and objective, "Upside risks to the growth outlook" missed including the possibility of a surprise intergalactic alien bailout collateralized by the sun and some of our excess planets...

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:53 | 2994947 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"Key Global Event Risk"....LOL...listen and learn:

When the Global Financial System is strained to its' limits, and America is on its' knees, World War III & IV will commence.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:25 | 2994997 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I am hoping that the secession of 1 or 2 EU States will result in an EU civil war.  It would start out  with the EU dismissing State governments and putting police/troops in shaky EU states to take control, and quickly progress to guerilla war.  Once tha atrocities get ugly, all hell will break loose.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:21 | 2995084 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Why on Earth would you hope for this?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:53 | 2995214 Kimo
Kimo's picture

I am afraid to ask him, what about Japan?  In fact, its not even a black swan growth risk, according to this article/post.  HELLO?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 07:58 | 2995433 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



These are not the droids you're looking for....


That concludes the press conference.....and we're not going to take anymore questions.


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:23 | 2995088 awakening
awakening's picture

WWIV? Long sharp pointy sticks and rock hammers.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:18 | 2994984 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"....possibility of a surprise intergalactic alien bailout collateralized by the sun and some of our excess planets..."

I have it from good authority that Earth is considered an excess planet. They want us solely for our natural resources.

<It's said that humans are finger licking good.>

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:18 | 2994987 ACP
ACP's picture

With all the marbling that Americans have would we be considered the equivalent of "Kobe Beef"?

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:31 | 2995003 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Our alien overlords eat strictly kosher and won't touch us American porkers. However, we can still be used as pack animals and cannon fodder.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 02:55 | 2995264 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"<It's said that humans are finger licking good.>"

I dunno about humans as a whole, but Lauren Lyster looked Finger Licking Good in that video.....even if she is my daughter!

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:21 | 2994992 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

That wouldn't be an "upside". Eventually, the collateral would be lost.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:08 | 2995170 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Ah, plenty of asteroids out there too, and who needs Pluto and the Kuiper belt?

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:37 | 2994927 mick68
mick68's picture

You forgot:


1)Currency crisis

2)Debt bubble

3)Student loan bubble

4)Major recession in the US(Depression)

5)Natural disasters, which seem to be occurring with increasing regularity.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:06 | 2994969 ACP
ACP's picture

You missed 6) Mark Wahlberg in Transformers 4.

Actually, I think that should be #1.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:45 | 2994940 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture



Why so serious?

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:48 | 2994944 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't see WWIII listed any place. I'm sure that was a small oversight.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:52 | 2994948 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Lol... five years out, indeed. I'd like to see someone try to prognosticate the major events of the next five weeks.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:10 | 2995065 Karlus
Karlus's picture

"Hey, T, whats your prediction?"

"Forecast calls for pain...." - Mr. T

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:54 | 2994956 Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

sorry to break the late night thread with my foul mouthed 10 yr old vixen:

YouTube - Potty Mouthed 10 Yr Old Palestinian Girl Opens a Can of Kick Ass on Israeli Soldiers


new vid mash coming up soon... 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:57 | 2995216 Kimo
Kimo's picture

A blond palestinian?  I don't think so. Wheres the orginal sound track, eh?  Lost in the disinformation?  right.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 22:55 | 2994957 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

I can't believe we have to wait more than three months to find out who wins the Cyrpus Presidential election.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:33 | 2995105 SpykerSpeed
SpykerSpeed's picture

Have to give Golden Dawn party more time to gain grassroots support, dontchaknow.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:08 | 2994975 Conman
Conman's picture

Does it matter? Congress openly admits everything it does and says is  to keep the stock market up! Same as bernanke. As long as we have these loons in power, what the difference, they will keep piling up debt more nad more until the whole thing blows.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:10 | 2994977 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture


If that's the worst that happens we'll be doing pretty good.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:12 | 2994979 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

The recovery will consist of factions and structures that don't even exist currently. Predicting the timing and catalyst of collapse is impossible, predicting the source, timing and cause of the recovery is a fools errand.

Somebody needs to go read some Taleb.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:43 | 2994981 augustus caesar
augustus caesar's picture

1) Nationalistic political parties taking control in Europe.

2) Break up of EU, so France, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc. can fire up those printing presses.

3) Trade restrictions due to nationalistic policies.

4) Complete break down in productivity.

5) Extreme poverty.

6) War.

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:26 | 2994999 Pejorative Requiem
Pejorative Requiem's picture

The demise of the Hostess Cupcakes would have been on the list if it didn't happen last week.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 09:37 | 2995528 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Hostess you say.  Where is the bailout?  After all, Hostess is TBFT, no?

(sarc off)

Sun, 11/18/2012 - 23:28 | 2995001 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The South Korean presidential election is on December 19, not 12.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:30 | 2995103 chump666
chump666's picture


It is absolutely alarming that Israel is doing what they are doing (Obama's green light) now after the elections.

Fiscal Cliff is nothing, market should be down 20% by now, it's not, USD/DYX should be close to 90, it's not.  But hey!  Oil is bid at 88+



Mon, 11/19/2012 - 00:41 | 2995123 Martial
Martial's picture

wait....when's the pole shift?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:24 | 2995184 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Not for nuthin, but the US has Congressional elections every two years. So the next one is in '14.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:27 | 2995187 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Blah, blah, blah, blah.....print, print, print.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 01:59 | 2995219 Kimo
Kimo's picture

Gee, things are better than I thought.... I thought Japan would be a black swan.  Of course, black swans are unknown, eh?  ;)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 06:10 | 2995372 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Another short article with little substance, but a headline calculated to attract agreement.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!