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AAPL's 4 Sigma Bounce Is The Second Biggest In Two Years

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's AAPL move, on no news, is as of this moment a $35+ move in one trading session, or a $30+ billion market cap move in one trading session, and a nearly $60 move from the Friday lows. As the histogram below shows, in absolute terms, this is the second largest intraday move up in the stock in the past two years, and a 4 sigma move for a stock which has moved 7% on a 1.7% standard deviation, for no other reason than the "stock is oversold" or whatever other narrative those who put narratives to stock moves have ascribed to it today. And with HFT's determining valuation based on momentum, RSI, Bollinger bands, and other meaningless New Normal technicals, we have just gone from massively oversold, to massively-er overbought.


The percetage rise from yesterday's low to today's highs is incredibly dramatic - has happened only twice from the lows in 2009 (and one of those was the fiscal cliff) and after erach, the stock tumbled quite considerably (unable to hold the gains)...


and the current level is a critical VWAP test...


What lies in the stock's future? Nobody knows, at least not until the rear view mirror provides a narrative plot line, but one thing is for sure: much more yoyo-ing is coming.


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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:39 | 2996801 pitz
pitz's picture

Time to short this turd.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:48 | 2996833 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Positively skewed, bitchezz!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:51 | 2996841 ACP
ACP's picture

Exhaustion moves are generally quite big.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:56 | 2996848 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

sotra like equities, takes a week to move down 180 pts but only one day to move up 180 pts.....don't forget GS told us to expect 8% more downside.....time to buy /sarc

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:57 | 2996864 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"What people forget is that fear can be extremely stimulative and bullish. The panic in risk assets has once again sent investors back into Treasurys, pushing those bond yields back to incredible lows. This in turn may act as a form of QE, as the market acts to stimulate more than the Fed. The end result becomes an environment that plays out similar to the post-May period, sending stocks powering higher.

The possibility exists then for a sharp V-like move in the weeks ahead, undoing much, if not all of the decline. Our ATAC models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts, which have avoided the most recent drop in stocks, may fully reposition back into equities in a couple of weeks on enough intermarket improvement and confirmation."

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:36 | 2996954 flacon
flacon's picture

I bought aapl put at 3:55pm. Up 5% into the close. Today was a blow-off top action. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:40 | 2996959 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Why Apple Should be Trading at $1000

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:00 | 2996869 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

If I hear "Rise Above" one more time, I am going to projectile vomit everywhere

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:37 | 2996955 flacon
flacon's picture

You need to rise above that sort of vulgar talk.



Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:54 | 2996984 redpill
redpill's picture

Wow, looks like he had clam chowder for lunch

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:09 | 2996893 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

that's a big time doji bar, technical signal to buy FWIW.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:13 | 2996902 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

This is a perfect example of a lemming stampede succker rally.


cant wait to see who is holding the bag when it crashes 14% next

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:28 | 2996936 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Facebook has these all the time -they're hilarious. Never last for more than a few days at best.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 00:01 | 2997904 monoloco
monoloco's picture

If aapl is over bought, what do you call Amazon?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:41 | 2996806 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Hedge fund manager going all in AAPL to save their job. They all must be down 18%

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:41 | 2996807 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Like a dead cat, even bruised fruit bounces.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:41 | 2996808 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Apple was $30 BILLION 'oversold' in 1 day? Oh my fuck this is truly crazy.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:42 | 2996809 PUD
PUD's picture

there ya go! The folly of t/a voodoo for all to behold

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:01 | 2996875 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And where's Orly to bring us all up to speed on the CCI and RSI indicators?

No doubt...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:42 | 2996810 resurger
resurger's picture

NYSE! All bullshit

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:43 | 2996811 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

FY PE (ex cash) of about 7 with 20% YoY growth is a "turd"?  Wow, Graham just turned over in his grave.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:43 | 2996817 pitz
pitz's picture

The 'growth' is coming to a crashing halt, and don't believe everything you 'hear' about cash.  Especially since they still refuse to pay much of it out to shareholders as a dividend.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:45 | 2996827 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

this is a cash out your options (exercise) day for AAPL....most of the top brass already know that peak AAPL "innovation" is in the rear view.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:56 | 2996862 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Alot of that cash is in muni debt...If you lend billions of dollars insolvent state and local governments those overweight government employees just might get off their fat ass and buy 200 million of your product with those hard earned wages.


Its brilliant!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:01 | 2996874 pitz
pitz's picture

So when that shit gets defaulted on....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:43 | 2996819 ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

whats up with all the dorky Karle Rov jokes spamming the airwaves - inteligence on this site is dwindling rapidly

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:46 | 2996823 jim249
jim249's picture

CNBS has given the stock market a reason to rally. All good news. Everything is all fixed!


Euro Up on Hopes for Greek Funding, US Fiscal Fix
Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:46 | 2996824 ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

Anyone shorting AAPL after this recent bullish engulfing is premature bear who went short the markets in 2009 - I'd wait for 2 months before eating some of these BBQ long ribs

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:46 | 2996826 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

<< I am caught short AAPL below $560

<< I am long AAPL below $560

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:46 | 2996828 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

It is perfectly understandable that the equity markets and AAPL would see these kinds of gains. With movement from the Pelosi and Boehner bobbleheads attached to the dashboard everyone believes they will start driving the car.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:49 | 2996834 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Pelosi and Boehner are going to a drive-in movie tonight to see "Lincoln"  Nancy put on her best Fredrick's lingerie and Boehner scheduled a double session at the tanning clinic.  Tomorrow ES + 20  Fiscal cliff averted.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:58 | 2996867 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:07 | 2996887 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

WB, how can I not love having you around here?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:12 | 2997254 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

NP:  "Rrrrrrrrrrr !!   I just LUV a man who's not afraid to show his feelings ... ''

JB:  "Aw, sacred shit !  I thought you were that cute rep from S. Dakota (that's the last time I drink any of Grover Norquist's grain alcohol).  I'll let you raise taxes down to 110k AGI if you erase those cell phone photos."

NP:  "You've got bigger problems, Buster Brown  -- the company that makes 'Orange Glo' is suing for patent infringement."

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:50 | 2996836 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Someone get me a couple "katyusha rockets"... I need to let some air out of the " Hindenturd"...

  I left the circus Friday late morning.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:50 | 2996837 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Apple is the market

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:54 | 2996849 bullmarket
bullmarket's picture

You got that right!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:51 | 2996842 foofoojin
foofoojin's picture

actaully there was news on apple today. delay of the new imac.,1... just more evidence of an ass back word market

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:36 | 2996904 freedogger
freedogger's picture

And iCloud went down today:

Make that double bass ackward!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:54 | 2996843 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL intermediate PT of $590 (next VWAP level) is entirely feasible.   Even ZH hero EINHORN is long AAPL.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:21 | 2997284 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Someone should put a chart together showing how a peak in ZH headlines containing Apple puns precedes a local bottom in the stock. Sometime last week, I actually counted that HALF of all ZH headlines were Apple related and went lond at 526 and 507 which I sold today for 552. Turns out, I was a bit early as it closed north of 565.

Thank you, Tyler.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:53 | 2996847 bullmarket
bullmarket's picture

Was Apple oversold? - missed that article.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:54 | 2996851 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Who cares, just be on the right side of the trade.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:05 | 2996882 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Yup, what's the old adage "Better rich than right". Market apoplexy can be profitable.

I stopped trying to rationalize this market long ago.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:55 | 2996856 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

in last week-ends financial press this was, by far the most touted stock of all time.  can't remember anything as pumped-one tout called it "the but of the century"  amazingly, the 10/31 short interest was  about the same as 2 weeks prior. very low short interest 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:57 | 2996861 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture


Come on Benny...HIT THE GAS!!!!

26 handles...MY ASS!  That can be 30 into the close!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:56 | 2996863 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

7.5% - $40 move in one day! Wow. Wish I woulda bought it today. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:59 | 2996868 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

Apple has a lot of cash probably bought a ton of theirn own paper today

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:02 | 2996872 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I mean their business model is uninspiring to say the least.

-File bullshit claims in court against our competition and biggest suppliers in court ? why ? to drive up our own costs (samsung), ok APPLES go make your own supplier pissed off and raise the price on componenets that makeup 90% of your product, its not even an APPLIE IPHONE its a SAMSUNG PHONE WITH AN APPLE LOGO ON IT AND IOS Running on it.


-Take our products that we have now and make them 5Cm smaller ! brilliant!


Apple has no room left to grow and they are going to get slaughtered in the asian markets, their top people are gona start leaving in droves and thats when you know the ship is sinking.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:31 | 2996945 kito
kito's picture

-Take our products that we have now and make them 5Cm smaller ! brilliant!...................


now where have i heard that before......hmmmm????

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:25 | 2997461 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Large ships take a long time to sink and could in fact surprise you like HPQ after Fiorina left. That being said, AAPL is not a bad investmen valuewise.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:03 | 2996878 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

new product announcement imminent,   iBrain.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:04 | 2996879 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

The Fed did a large coupon pass this morning $7.2 billion. That likely had an effect on the markets :)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:05 | 2996881 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

YEAH!!!  Banged the close to 27 handles!!!

That's some bullish shit, right there!  WHEEEEEE. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:06 | 2996886 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I bought at 506.50 on Friday and everyone junked me, suck it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:13 | 2996903 adr
adr's picture

and next Friday you could be at $650 or $490, there won't be any reason for either price. The odds are the same as roulette.

You rolled the dice and won the bet this time. Next time you might not be as lucky, blow it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:25 | 2996932 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

wrong the odds are not the same. weeeee

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:03 | 2997007 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I'm dollar cost averaged in at $220, so I'm winning either way, but thanks for pretending to know what I'm doing.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:08 | 2996888 kito
kito's picture

apples valuation is nothing more than an i-llusion.....................

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:09 | 2996891 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Hope rallies. Everyone give the bird !

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:09 | 2996892 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  CNBS afternoon wrap jumping the ishark as usual...  Click/off

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:11 | 2996897 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

They'll be slinging jizz all over the camera lens.  It'll be awsome.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:21 | 2996898 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I don't really care much what others have to say about APPLs business. I can develop my own view but I am always willing to listen.

However, I feel less confident in formulating opinions about how the stock will move because "trading" is not my forte and the price is being driven by market externals. Where is the genius who might have called today's move I'm wondering?

I suspect in the spirit of Jesse Livermore, he kept his mouth shut and made a tidy sum and the fact that Ben Bernanke is essentially an evil force had nothing to do with how he did it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:45 | 2996963 kito
kito's picture

question regarding apples already aging products:


how much plastic surgery can a woman undergo before she looks like complete shit?????


cant wait for their biggest screen yet, the itv.....should create a revoltion as underwhelming as the greek uprisings..................................

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:09 | 2997006 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

This evening, I was watching a TV report on technology in the classroom. It was very interesting. They were demonstrating how several educational institutions in HK were making very substantial investments in converting their entire teaching environment to integrate wireless devices etc.

Although it was not mentioned explicitly, what I noticed at the end of the show was that the University, High School, Primary School and School for Disabled, all independent operated, were all deploying devices made by whom?


This of course has nothing to do with today's move. But it is indicative of the institutional mindset in one of the worlds fastest growing consumer markets and what they might think about customer support.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:04 | 2997004 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Ahem!!! I know someone who has been absolutely right about Apple for about two years now.


Deconstructing The Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever…


Deconstructing The Most Hated Trade Of The Decade…



Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:22 | 2997041 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Yes, I recall you predicting this bounce for everyone's benefit over the weekend.

BTW, I was asked what I thought about holding APPL stock last week. You know what my response was? I have no idea what the Bank of Israel and David Einhorn et al are going to do next. So don't ask me to tell you what I think they will do next.

What do you think they will do next Reggie?

Not to deflate your schtick, but the person who asked me about it would be down roughly $300 a share following your advice starting two years ago.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:44 | 2997169 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You apparently forgot to read the attached links. I notice that the Apple faithful refuse to accept facts. I released my research for the last two years or so and it shows that those who followed my (paid) schtick would have likely been long Apple to right when the iPhone 5 was released (roughly $700) then went short, for a roughly 375% return. I posted about 11 pages with dates that stated Apple was roughly fairly valued before then, and the reco to go pessimistic around the $700 or so mark. I have yet to see anyone beat that. Anybody who trades and can't do their own thorough research should be paying for the research anyway.

The free stuff I put out on Apple has ALL come to pass and has been absolutely correct as well. Despite that, you still say somehow someone would have been down following my schtick. Come on now, fellow. Everyone wanted to jump on the bandwagon when they thought I was wrong. Now that I've been proven right no one seems to be nearly as vocal. As everyone told me, just admit it and move on.

I have no problem admitting I was wrong, I just need the condition of my being wrong to be fullfilled first, of course.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:12 | 2997245 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Reggie, I believe that people who post on this site are entitled to make a living. Conversely, it would be foolish to expect everyone on this site to buy the product you are selling.

I don't subscribe to your newsletter, nor do I feel any need to. I do however read what you decide to post here.

So telling me what I might have done had I subscribed for two years really is a meaningless exercise.

I do, however, know what would have happened following the advice or advice implied by the bearish observations on Apple and bullish observations on Google that you have posted here on an almost weekly basis.

And faith has nothing to do with it.

Now, there were a few commentators out there who said there would be a substantial bump back up because market sentiment was over reacting. As of the close today, the bump they postulate has not been fully realized.

I suppose we won't finally know what will happen this week until Christine Lagarde decides what mascara to use.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:45 | 2997174 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

For the record, AAPL short term is a crap shoot, but long term they've been outdone and this was evident over a year ago.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:12 | 2996899 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

44 pt SP ramp in 25 hours.  Wonder who did not get the memo to ramp at 2 pts/hour?  What Mofos....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:12 | 2996900 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Not suprised, I said that was Apple due to retrace in my posts on Friday. There has been an awful lot of wasted energy trying to talk it down here, and a lot of the hot money has been flushed out. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:16 | 2996911 adr
adr's picture

Somewhere someone got passed a whole lot of freshly printed Bernake jizz and had marching orders to throw it in the market. Everyone that needs to gets a higher point to jump off.

Insider sells have been huge over the past week.

The market is for insiders and gamblers, nobody else need apply.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:21 | 2996924 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

NASDAQ100 went for a bounce today.


But this is a correction up to how we fell since October.  And what comes after this?  More downturn and much worse.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:21 | 2996925 El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

I don't know if it's just me but APPL seems like it's finished. Between Samsung, Google, MSFT Surface, etc they are getting the shit squeezed out of them. I would bet that in the next couple of years they will be a shadow of themselves. After all they do make a proprietary piece of shit. The will be joining Sony soon....

Make what you can of this everything it's days are numbered.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:22 | 2996927 monad
monad's picture

What if someone engineered this?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:15 | 2997046 Darkness
Darkness's picture

You didn't build that!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:28 | 2996937 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

It could be about this (via BBG):

"The Korean company has asked the U.S. International Trade Commission in Washington to reverse a finding by one of its judges that Apple’s devices don’t infringe four Samsung patents. The agency, which can block imports of products found to infringe patents, is scheduled to announce today whether it will review that Sept. 14 decision.

Samsung needs a victory to counteract a series of Apple wins in U.S. courts, as the world’s two largest smartphone makers fight for increased shares of a $219 billion market"

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:40 | 2996957 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Still waiting for the Rochdale "rescue" from nearly two weeks ago. I guess you don't have to cover margin calls anymore to stay in business.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:15 | 2997038 Darkness
Darkness's picture


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:18 | 2997061 laserjock
laserjock's picture

Glad I shorted last Friday. Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop snorting bath salts.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 05:28 | 2998138 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Just demonstrates a large amount of short-sighted participants, this movement mirrors the steadily amplifying sways of a collapsing building.


errmm.."hotel", I should say.

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