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Commodities Gone Wild

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It all makes perfect sense. S&P 500 futures are 33 points off Friday's lows (Boehner's 'constructive chatter' and Fiscal Cliff is fixed), EURUSD is rallying decently (Greece is fixed), and commodities in general have gone vertical. Gold is back above $1730 but its Silver and Oil (tensions rising - despite cease-fire?) that is running the high-beta pump this morning. WTI is almost 4% higher than Friday's lows up near $89. The highly correlated nature of everything is perhaps merely sympomatic of a low volume week ahead and short-term oversold conditions - we suspect little is really resolved in any of these three 'event risks' and the same real-money anxious investors will use strength to reduce exposure further - since remember, if the S&P 500 is anywhere near its highs by year-end, there will be no fiscal cliff resolution.

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:17 | 2995640 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Tom Keene has been providing the play by play all morning

 

"we're getting reports media center taken out in Gaza - Ohhhhh Look at that Brent just spiked up"

what a douche he is

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:19 | 2995650 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'm sure we can expect to hear from all the douches today.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:05 | 2995777 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

One of the douches speaks tomorrow:

November 20 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy
At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York
12:15 p.m. ET 
Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2995789 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

People have heard Bernanke has had an epiphany. He has reviewed his grade 5 mathematics and discovered that to reflate the US economy he needs to print at least 100 billion a month to cover the US trade deficit and also begin to add back some lost equity. (Excluding of course the twist program which is just for the government largess)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:12 | 2995795 greyghost
greyghost's picture

ten o'clock witching hour for silver. set your watches. getting hit now, just like a fine tune swiss watch

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:23 | 2995831 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

BUY

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:16 | 2995980 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Stacka-stacka-stacka. Mo silver.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2995657 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We hot chicks love the douche bag guys.  

http://www.holytaco.com/25-hot-chicks-douchebags/

Financial nerd goldbug preppers?  only to the extent they buy us gold jewelry.   

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2995663 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Got STDs?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:31 | 2995682 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

reheads not warheads.... blondes not bombs..... brunettes not fighter jets...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:40 | 2996231 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

As Chris Rock said...

"If a girl has a pierced tongue ~ she'll probably suck your dick"

"If a guy has a pierced tongue ~ he'll probably suck your dick"

~~~

And remember... Whatever anybody tells you... THERE IS NO SEX IN THE CHAMPAGNE ROOM...NONE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N03oUt9w3p0

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2995690 fuu
fuu's picture

Aww now I'm really wishing you had come over and beat me up.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:02 | 2996125 malikai
malikai's picture

Thank goodness. Imagine a decent guy getting caught up with one of those hideous creatures.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2995648 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wait what?  In order to actually do anything or produce anything real you need energy and commodities?  Who would have guessed it?

Bloody sheep.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2995656 venturen
venturen's picture

Is that core or non-core?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:20 | 2995655 Stuart
Stuart's picture

well lets get that dumbas's Mashaal to antagonize Israel some more (HA HA, you missed me, you missed me) so a full scale ground war can be launched in order to snuff out any optimism over common sense prevailing.  We wouldn't want any of that to contribute into a bullish environment now would we...   unfreaking believable. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:24 | 2995659 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

must be bonus season

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:27 | 2995666 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

 oh yeah, "bonus season".  Who could have predicted?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2995765 tbone654
tbone654's picture

at S&P 1392 the trend turns up...  at this moment, we're at 1384...  c'mon big bonus'

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:46 | 2996236 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

No Whammies! (meet the new cast & talent lineup at CNBC for 2013)...

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIJYfvN9954

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2995664 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Gold, bitchez.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:59 | 2996114 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

What happens when the world wants their gold, they were storing here for safe keeping, back, and they find out the US spent it?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:26 | 2995665 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

This was to be expected. We saw a high volume reversal at 11:30 a.m. Friday (at the European close, courtesy of the Boehner/Pelosi short squeeze) off of an oversold market. Now, we have a light holiday shortened week which is usually up anyway. At the end of the week, let's see where we are to possibly set up another short opportunity. Just don't be short this week...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:28 | 2995671 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Everybody is waiting to see if the test of the ES 200DMA will fail.  Until then, we go up.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:32 | 2995685 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

with europe having an orgasm today, dow +200 and es +20 eod

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:28 | 2995670 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

D-Bags on CNBC should be spouting about upcoming Santa Claus rally soon. If their ratings suck so bad why do they keep doing the same dumb shit with the same dumb asses?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2995742 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Because they have nothing else to say?

I mean, you aren't suggesting they broadcast the truth, are you?

I'm waiting for the Kittens and Puppies channel. All cute, fuzzy, playful pets, all the time!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:17 | 2995816 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

BlowHorn random quotes,

1) "the valuations look very attractive here".

2) "it's a stock pickers environment, there are opportunities out there".

3) "investors need to have a strategic global perspective to ride out the volitility".

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:02 | 2995926 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Investiment opportunity of a LIFETIME for a LONG term investor.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:47 | 2996253 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

see above ^^^ comment for a preview of the new 2013 CNBC on-air talent lineup...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2995672 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Plenty of room to snap back towards 1400 in the coming low holiday volumes and PPT pumping..  which is revealed in the move in gold and energy.  I'm wondering to what level congress will pump this thing up while they position for the complete opposite of what their media cheerleaders are instructed to present to the public. Do they wait until hours before the cliff hits to surprise us that there is no deal ?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:29 | 2995673 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

The US fell off the cliff yrs ago.  We're just in rerun phase now.  Just like Wil E Coyote.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2995676 crawl
crawl's picture

Start of the Santa rally? I'm thinking so. Weak hands sold, shorts clobbered with the stop hunts intraday. Easiest path is upwards, fundamentals be damned.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:45 | 2995720 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They better watch out with pumping markets, then the fiscal cliff bullshit wont ever get anywhere. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2995681 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

But, but, Options expiry is coming up, what are we gonna do?????

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:37 | 2995695 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I was planning on leaving.....if you want to stick around and get killed....go nuts.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:45 | 2995717 youngman
youngman's picture

I thought that was last week..hence the attack on the PM´s.....to many options in the money...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:48 | 2995725 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

When Ben Shalom found out they forgot to reload the bullets over the weekend....he was super cheesed.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2995686 falak pema
falak pema's picture

As the drums of regional war beat in Gaza and Syria, the drums of WS bypassing the regulator continue to sky rocket.

This world is mad beyond reason, and its sad beyond the limits of rational tolerance :

Shadow Banking Is $67 Trillion Industry - Business Insider

The WMD juggernaut just builds up more momentum. Socialised debt is your problem...the smoke and mirrors is our competitive advantage as the elite behind the tinsel curtain. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:34 | 2995688 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If the S&P is anywhere near its highs, there will be no fiscal cliff resolution?

I don't even know what that means.  But I do know what 85 billion a month in QE means. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:46 | 2995723 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$85 billion a month QE means....what exactly? No ones buying it. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:19 | 2995694 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

this is so freaking depressing... still 3 weeks before I have extra budget to buy...

I hope they intervene and clob it like a canadian baby seal ...

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2995700 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

Was there ever a doubt that the can would be kicked down the road?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2995701 PUD
PUD's picture

There is no such thing as "oversold" or "overbought"...wall st buzzwords for the simple minded. 

If a condition such as "oversold" or "overbought' existed and could be quantified then no one would buy "overbought" and no one would sell "oversold"

If these conditions could be known then they would never approach them as only a fool would pay more for or sell for less

It implies that there is one true fixed fair price ordained by god himself and anything either side of that is either "overbought" or "oversold"

It implies that this perfect price can be known and anything either side of it is either "overbought" or "oversold"

There is no such thing as "fair" value..it is was and always will be subjective

There is no such thing as any viable technical analysis

Just one more propaganda con by the owners of the casino

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:08 | 2995785 Orly
Orly's picture

Actually, it is a technical indicator that determines an historical price of a given thing relative to itself.  Prices rarely get higher or lower by two standard deviations from the historical price model, say for 28 days (or candles...), or whatever your settings are.

So yes there is such a thing as overbought or oversold.  See CCI and RSI indicators as good examples.

:D

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:33 | 2995862 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Nice dodge of the question. Use moar TA trader lingo to bolster your "argument".

Did you miss the part about broken markets and rigged casino?

Oh that's right, there is no manipulation is there Orly? Maybe you can explain the Gold/XAU ratio and why it has failed to reset to historical norms since 2008 (yet gold is $1000 dollars higher)?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:57 | 2995893 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Pluss 1 Bay

Paper Humpers like orly love the ass raping they take by algorthmic trading

 They'er sphincter so streched  its just a flow of crap .. just like he/she is doing now .

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:52 | 2996091 Orly
Orly's picture

Relative to itself.

Can you read or do you just like to be a dumbass?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2995787 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Here, here. Finally a spot on comment on the thread.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:17 | 2995812 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

But, it allows the masses to 'play along', right?  If it was all highly intellectual analysis and commentary then 90% of the dipshits trading would have to take their ball and go home.

This is simply a stupidification for the masses to get the middle class to gamble and provide liquidity.

It works like charm, too.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:42 | 2995707 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Does this mean the bankster tantrum (cuz of election) is over..??

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:49 | 2995727 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No it means the DOW is pumped +100 on a Monday futures ramp based on nothing, except maybe fever dreaming about Black Friday which will be awful, and everyone is right back to thinking all is well. 

Ridiculous.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:12 | 2995716 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

What is a fiscal cliff resolution? So we expect the same people whose policies resulted in such chaos to now know a solution? One thing is certain, they have no ideas and no answers, except ones that further their disgusting agenda.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2995724 razorthin
razorthin's picture

if the S&P 500 is anywhere near its highs by year-end, there will be no fiscal cliff resolution.

 

Book it.  This could also mean that the "resolution" will simply be an extend-pretend, because any resolution that involves real tax increases ("revenue" - euphemism of thieves LOL!) or spending cuts will tank the markets.  She's too far gone.  Nothing to do but print.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:49 | 2995729 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Have the politicians come back from vacation yet? I doubt this is because of any fiscal cliff "resolution" either real or perceived.

Sounds more like behind the scene CB shenanigans.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:50 | 2995735 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

No kidding.  Along with the 'chart reading for the clueless that want to believe in something' non-sense.

It's all an attempt to suck in the marginal intellectuals into believing they can play at a professional level.  Dumb down everything to a point where it's easy to digest for the meaty part of the IQ curve and you have inflows of money.

It's all just a modern three card monte game ran by the elites.  It's a fleecing mechanism and nothing more.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 10:53 | 2995741 Barry Mcokiner
Barry Mcokiner's picture

Turkey Day false flag!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:05 | 2995779 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Hope rallies are back. When there is nothing else, fake hope rules.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:29 | 2995851 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

When fundamentals are falling, there's always hope...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:09 | 2995786 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Someone doesn't want silver to go over $33 at this particular moment.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:31 | 2995856 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

I added to my stockpile when we last went down to $28.  Think there will be another opportunity under $30 or are we past that point now?  Would like to add some more...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:35 | 2995870 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I took delivery of more last week.

I think it would still be a good buy at 34$.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:22 | 2995993 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

David Morgan said he doesn't think it will ever go under $30 again, but no one actually knows. ;)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:41 | 2995882 alentia
alentia's picture

$33 has been violated, could break up today or tomorrow.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:16 | 2996326 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

At this point I pessimistically believe it will stay up today, but they are going to smack it down again during the Bernanke speech tomorrow.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:22 | 2996182 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Hulk....smash can!

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