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EURUSD Soars As Eurogroup Calls IMF Bluff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Whether it is a pure low volume technical run for the 200DMA, or fundamental bias as 'officials' comment that the release of a EUR44bn aid tranche to Greece is expected by December 5th, is unclear. One thing is certain, the Eurogroup is placing the decision squarely back in Madame Lagarde's lap as it appears to be behaving as if the IMF's threat not to disburse funds (due to Greece's unsustainable debt load) does not exist. While Lagarde is unlikely to want to be the trigger for GRExit, the non-European members may have differing perspectives or will they all just continue kicking the can down the road - proving once and for all that all the power lies with the Greeks as their supposed overlords "can't handle the truth".

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2995928 PUD
PUD's picture

Calling a bluff yes, 200 day voodoo no. One day the "break" of the 200 is sure doom then a run for it is pure bliss....stop it...there is no magic number, no mystical lines, no pre-ordained behavior triggered by waves in the ether. The machines decide and that is all.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:07 | 2995941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Mad dash to sop up any drop of spice left out there, just pumping a dead corpse.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:20 | 2995986 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

That's a really nasty visual.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:57 | 2996106 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

A man’s flesh is his own; the water belongs to the tribe.

 

(apologies for the obvious Jewish joke, however this was just an open goal)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:07 | 2995944 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Machines. Hummmmm.

Greece is the craddle of civilization, it is befitting that the new infantile would come from it,.

If it is the destroyer, we deserve it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:11 | 2995962 Orly
Orly's picture

Voodoo?

How did everyone on here get so silly all of a sudden?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2995930 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Its extraordinary.  This weekend will mark the point in history when the Greece debt crisis was resloved, the US housing market recovered, and the US debt crisis was relieved.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:10 | 2995943 Racer
Racer's picture

And what will also be amazing is that during this last weekend  no-one actually did anything to fix them and that the market soared on all these fixes

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:11 | 2995963 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Things actually got worse, if anything....but they just say 'All is WELL now!' so it must be. All markets leap to adrenaline induced wild swings and everyone believes all is well. 

Huh, go figure.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:51 | 2996085 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You guys are being negative, what you lack is confidence.  /s

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2995932 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Frankenstein has lost control over her creature.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2995933 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

The Merke got a bad reception at the touch down in Portugal last week.

When she checked in the lad behind the desk asked "How long you here for?"

She said "3 days"

The las asks, "Ocupation?"

She says, "no, just a summit"

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:05 | 2995934 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Spider update: Spider says im ok Spider

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:05 | 2995939 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

a december deadline for greece. sounds familiar.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:10 | 2995955 Conman
Conman's picture

And the bankers keep skewereing the muppets. Pump, dump - rinse repeat.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:12 | 2995966 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pump and dump and wring the muppets for any remaining drop of blood left....they wont be happy till everyone is dead.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:20 | 2995990 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Everyone is dead. Now it's the Bank's turn. Once the (state run) bank is dead then it's the State itself. And after that...anything denominated in euro's. ANYTHING. Thus causing everyone to BE exited. Save for the muppets who "get the last laugh." thnx for playing!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:10 | 2995959 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

That looks like a double bullish reverse cock-and-balls formation emerging out of the invisible trend line.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:50 | 2996079 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the man who invented pornography and politcal satire, when the written press emerged in Europe, was Pietro Aretino. His influence on ribald diatribe and political pillory satire was so successful that both the Emperor and King of France wanted him to write satire to bad mouth his rival.

Karl Rove had an ancestor. Not sure if he was good in Fibonacci head and shoulders, but he loved playing below the equator line. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:11 | 2995964 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Like sands through the hour glass..... so are the days of our lives.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:14 | 2995974 john_connor
john_connor's picture

IMF bailouts will trigger dollar endgame as US is #1 contributor.  If any of these shell games are actually implemented, the market will call bluff as broke countries contributing to a fund is ultimate ponzi.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:26 | 2996008 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I would argue it's the end game for the euro actually. And the bulk of money market funds in the USA. "savers revenge."

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:29 | 2996020 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

and look, Japan is now becoming the largest buyer of treasury bonds!  FAIL.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:35 | 2996037 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Japan is buying treasuries with the thought that their currency will be weaker than the dollar so it may work almost like a currency trade. Who knows if it will work because it will be based on how Bernanke plays the next round of QE.

Face it though. This looks more like a race to debase between these two.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:18 | 2995983 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I think we all agree that there are a lot of cans being kicked down a lot of different roads. The question is what type of event or action will stop the cans? For instance what will it take for bond buyers to stop buying Treasuries at 1.65%.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:25 | 2996004 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why should they stop?  They have huge profits this year on the drop to 1.65%.

They'll have even more next year on the drop to -1.65%.  And then to -5%.

There's a guaranteed bid in the Fed.  This is a far better Bernanke put than any equities have.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:29 | 2996023 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

This is clearly false. Besides the question is "how do they make the dollar worthless and not provide a return on it?" we all understand they've rigged the debt markets. But money markets are HUGE.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:47 | 2996068 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

CO

yes one can play the ever diminishing bond yield game....just think of it as playing hot potato...with a pin pulled grenade...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:21 | 2995991 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Thank you German taxpayers.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:23 | 2995998 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The December date derives from the 4ish week money they scrambled for Greece to borrow last week, when no agreement was reached Tuesday.

 

The poster above has it about 50% right.  The machines do decide, but they decide based on their headline reading algorithm, the nature of which has been provided to the EU officials, so that they say the correct things.

Let's get calibrated on one thing.  The EU members don't want to send this tranche.  They want Greece out but they don't want to be seen as the force that did it.  They tried to ratchet up requirements to the point where Greece's government would be unable to vote for the level of austerity demanded, but the coalition there was able to get it through with a 3 vote (out of 300) cushion.  

Now they have found a new blamee.  The IMF.  They would LOVE for the IMF to stick to their guns and refuse this next tranche.  If they could just get LaGarde to go public with a statement that "there has been pressure from my funding sources not to compromise on this matter", then the EU can blame America and that would be the absolutely perfect situation for them.  America destroyed Greece!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:32 | 2996029 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Or maybe it is the Fed balance sheet which shows the first effects of QE3.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:35 | 2996040 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

European markets in fantasy land today.

"Optimism" based on nothing other than rumor and promises.

Bet the algos can't wait to sell this rally and rotate into another sector(s).

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:43 | 2996042 falak pema
falak pema's picture

roller coasters, this system is in high oscillation depending how one or the other chief CB chamans blows his knows or lifts an eyebrow. 

Poor Lady LAgarde, she is getting more and more haggard as she travels the planet with her Gucci shopping bag. Hot n cold she blows and loud and cruel the guffows; what is the world coming to when Lady of Shalott gets no more encores! 

When the greek horse shoe could make battle lost play in banking zirp fest. 

CAC 40 up nearly 3%; is that the fiscal cliff in meltdown?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:57 | 2996108 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Greek horse shoe ... is that some kind of technical pattern?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:11 | 2996149 falak pema
falak pema's picture

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

At Marathon, after the battle, the general said " I don't want you guys to ride a horse to tell the good news to our citizens of Athens. You know...for want of a nail... 

So Phillipides ran to Athens and died with his last breath to give the news. The nail held out! 

Go tell that to the greeks! 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:41 | 2996052 youngman
youngman's picture

My bet is that they will do it..they will give Greece the money...BUT..everytime they do...they lose the CONFIDENCE of the people...and in the paper fiat.....and the hill gets steeper everytime they do it...

I would love to watch in real time the computer exchange from the Central bank to the creditors bank accounts.....I bet that cash dissapears in less than a second....and I am sure some is funneled off into private accounts or pensions....lol...stolen in other words...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:43 | 2996054 youngman
youngman's picture

And China just bought another oil company and field.....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:51 | 2996086 falak pema
falak pema's picture

In Nigeria they bought from Total a 20% share in oil field.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:28 | 2996200 Jolly.Roger
Jolly.Roger's picture

Maybe Rickards called it right; the EURO will survive and ZH is wrong in all the doom they predict/wish upon the Euro?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:23 | 2996525 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Of course it will survive. This crisis was meant to happen. It was, after all, engineered. The Germans and French were perfectly aware of this - and pretty much everyone else too. You know what they say, never let a good crisis go to waste.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:46 | 2996403 1000924014093
1000924014093's picture

It will be can kicking, insofar as there is not a shred of evidence they will ever do anything else until it is impossible to do so.

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