This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"The Fed, Having Used Its Bazookas, Is Now Down To Firecrackers"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Below is David Rosenberg's take on the current oversold market rip squeeze fest, and where we go from here:

Oversold equity markets are recovering to start off the week and defensive plays like core government bond markets are seeing some profit-taking in the process. US fiscal policymakers said all the right things at Friday's 70 minute meeting and investors are taking solace from early prospects that we won't fall off the cliff (President Obama said in an interview overnight in Bangkok that "I am confident we can get our fiscal situation dealt with"). Platitudes matter in a market seemingly on tenterhooks. Gifts matter too. The President gave John Boehner a bottle of Brunello di Montalcino as an early birthday present is a classic display of the horse trading that will take place to bring a short-term deal to fruition (see page 4 of today's FT). Mr Boehner would be well advised to split the vino with his GOP backbenchers who don't seem to share the President's view that he has a strong mandate to pursue higher top marginal tax rates on income and capital. Either way, austerity is coming our way, it's just a matter in what manner and by how much, and whether it becomes an orderly or disorderly process. The fiscal cliff is really a bit of a ruse in that respect, but the key here is that years of fiscal profligacy is coming to an end and the Fed at this point, having used its bazookas, is now down to firecrackers. The economic outlook as such is completely muddled and along with that the prospect for any turnaround in corporate earnings.

In the near-term, investors don't seem to be in a mood to take any chances in terms of facing a higher tax bite on their winnings— see Investors Rush to Beat Threat of Higher Taxes: Weighing on Markets on the front page of today's NYT (if left unchecked, the top rate on dividends will jump to 39.6% from 15% and capital gains go to 20% from 15%. And there is the additional 3.8% surcharge on most forms of investment income to help defray the costs of Obamacare). While we continue to favour income-equity, utilities are down 9.4% from the October highs and the telecom sector is down closer to 11%, so at the margin, there does seem to have been some effects from the expected tax shifts (ordinarily, these sectors would be outperforming based on the decline in bond yields over the past month, but this time around they have just performed in line with the market).

Moreover, the dividend-payers may have, at least for a short while, become victims of their own success as the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index, for example, hit an all-time high last month and have generated a net 164% return from the March 2009 lows and that compared to +117% for the overall market. The average yield in the investment grade corporate bond space, another area we have favoured, has been cut in half to 2.7% and have generated a decent 10% return year-to-date. There is a great article on page 8 of the FT today on the interest rate outlook and the most insightful comment came from the CIO of BlackRock (Rick Rieder), who said:

We have never seen in history the population ageing and living longer in such a fashion, not just in the U.S. but around the world, and that raises the question of how high growth can go.... we are in the midst of a major defeveraging in the entire developed world, which is going to continue in 2013 and 2014.

That led the writers of the column to conclude, rightfully in my view, that we are in for a "world of slow growth where demand for secure debt outstrips supply and keeps rates low for the foreseeable future." A portfolio manager at PIMCO (Mark Kiesel) also claims this (and I wouldn't argue the point, either):

If you look at the past 10 years, corporate bonds have had a higher return than equities with a third of the volatility investors are looking at earning 4-6 per cent from a diversified portfolio of corporate bonds and that's roughly what you will get from owning equities based on the outlook for earnings and the economy.

The direction and level of interest rates are much more important for income-equity than tax changes are— history is clear about that, despite the near-term disruption. At the same time, disinflation, a very accommodative Fed, superb corporate balance sheet fundamentals and tremendous liquidity all suggest that credit spread strategies will offer superior returns in the future, especially relative to cash which the Fed has already told you is going to be a losing strategy for the next three years in real after-tax terms.

One word we liked above is "diversification" which is more essential in a fat-tailed world where the range of outcomes is extremely wide compared to cycles in the past when the distribution curve was far thinner than is the case today. The more we are out of our comfort zone. the greater the need to have a diversified portfolio. And within that, the combination of disinflation, deleveraging and demographics — the market outlook in 3D — augurs for exposure to income strategies across the various asset classes. Cash flow is king in this sustained 0% short-term interest rate environment. If you like Treasuries, the price for safety is a lack of yield (though potential for capital gain), but the article on page C2 of today's WSJ reaffirms my view that we are potentially in for even lower yield activity ahead (see A Year-End Migration to Treasuries), which when all is said and done, will make corporate bonds and other spread product appear that much more alluring from a relative coupon perspective.

Meanwhile, in addition to eased fears over the fiscal cliff, there is some hope that a Cairo-led cease fire will occur in the Israel-Gaza flare-up and there is additional hope that the upcoming meeting among Eurozone financial officials will resolve the current spat with the IMF over Greece's debt targets. So with investor risk appetite whetted a bit, we have the European stock markets up more than 1%. Asia was up as well but by less, but the real hidden gem yet again was Japan with a 1.4% gain and this followed the 3% advance last week as other markets declined substantially. Japan is operating on its own set of dynamics and the fact that the yen has managed to embark on a weakening path is highly constructive for the country's large-cap exporters. The election on December 16th promises to usher in even more dramatic moves to weaken the yen and stimulate monetary policy — including a move to lift the BOJ's inflation target from 1% to 3%. As an aside, U.S. dollar/yen at 82 is widely viewed as the cut-off level for profitability among Japanese industrial companies — we are just about there. Domo!

In other markets, we see the U.S. dollar struggling as it tests the 100-day moving average. Gold is bid. The commodity-based currencies are faring better as well, as is sterling on the back of some better home price data that were released earlier today. If we do see some sort of market revival in the near-term, the one sector to keep an eye on is technology which has faltered significantly and badly lagged the old-economy machinery stocks during the recent setback (see Tech Sets Correction Course on page C1 of today's WSJ). Tech has slipped now for six weeks in a row, which is a strength we have not seen since 2008 (in addition to Apple, we have seen the likes of Google, IBM, Intel, and Dell all disappoint during the latest earnings reporting season). Margins have been squeezed and are now down to the lowest level in over two years (17% from 19% a year ago). No doubt earnings expectations are being trimmed — the flip-side of sitting on so much cash is reduced growth prospects — but the next question is the extent to which a bleak future is already more than priced in. After all, how many times in the past has the tech sector traded at a P/E discount (11.7x on year-out earnings forecasts) to the overall market (12.5x)?

One last word here on the fiscal cliff. Once we get past that issue, we will confront the inherent inability of the Democrats and the GOP to embark on any grand bargain to blaze the trail for true fiscal reforms. The U.S. has not had a rewrite of its tax code since 1986, which was the year Microsoft went public and a decade prior to Al Gore's invention of the Internet. The tax system is massively inefficient and leads to a gross misallocation of resources that impedes economic progress — rewarding conspicuous consumption at the expense of savings and investment. It is the lingering uncertainty over the road to meaningful fiscal reform that is really the mot cause of the angst — the fiscal cliff is really a side show because who doesn't know that we are going to have a Khrushchev moment?

Everyone at the White House and Congress is well versed about 1937-38. But it is what happens next that matters most for those that have to plan for the long-term — not just tax shifts around an end-of-year calendar date. To this end, have a look at the WSJ front page article today — Investment Fails off a Cliff: US Companies Cut Spending Plans Amid Fiscal and Economic Uncertainty. So I have some news for you: avoiding the fiscal cliff allows a very short window to catch a breath of relief. CEOs realize that averting the fiscal cliff will likely mean a quid pro quo for a slate of tax-code changes in the future and nobody is going to know for a long time how those changes are going to affect them. This is the exact opposite of what we had on our hands in 1980 when Ronald Reagan provided a framework of fiscal reform that ushered in sharply lower marginal tax rates, pledged to work with a Democratic House that was populated with "Reagan Democrats"... do "Obama Republicans" exist?), and the certainty and clarity over the fiscal policy roadmap the President ushered in was so powerful that this alone allowed the recovery and bull market to take hold fully four years before the tax shifts were legislated. This is how vital it is for the government to part the fiscal clouds as soon as possible — avoiding the fiscal cliff does not assure that.

What the country needs is a credible long-term fiscal plan. Only then will capital investment embark on a sustainable uptrend and take the rest of the economy with it. An economy reliant on such an unproductive asset as housing for its prosperity is not that comforting for those of us who believe that what provides a much more enduring IR is renewed growth in the nation's productive private sector capital stock. That begins with business spending.

In a U.S. holiday-shortened week (Happy Thanksgiving!), the noise around the fiscal cliff will take a back seat to an array of housing indicators, Bernanke's sermon tomorrow at the Economics Club of New York (12:15 PM) on the economy and how Black Friday (Thursday?) shopping goes. In Canada, Finance Minister Flaherty talks about the Canadian economic outlook at the Toronto Board of Trade on Thursday at 11:30 AM (as our American friends get ready for a day of Turkey, pumpkin pie and some NFL).

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Would ya believe... A couple of Chinese poppers & some plastic bubble wrap?...

~~~

Maxwell Smart (Agent 86)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

 

"...Used Its Bazookas, Is Now Down To Firecrackers"

 

my girlfriend chimed in and said she thoroiughly understands the premise

 

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

kill savers suck their savings kill value make them slaves pump their houses make them sell cheap kill em twice bury em thrice.

 

fed = fraud

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

The Fed isn't all that's killing people there's other vampires out there

Welfare government’s single largest budget item in FY 2011 at approx. $1.03 trillion

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/report-welfare-governments-single-larg...

 

Treasury Secretary Geithner: Lift Debt Limit to Infinity

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/treasury-secretary-geithner-lift-debt-li...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The goal must be a UN-Agenda 21 control grid: worldwide Oligarch-Socialism.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:40 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

The Agenda21ers are being routed out and kicked out of our country. See Florida's actions against them.

This is why Huffington Post are always attacking Governor Rick Scott of my State of Florida.

Rick Scott, Agenda 21 and the United Nations
http://www.crowleypoliticalreport.com/2011/05/rick-scott-agenda-21-and-the-united-nations.html

Florida Repeals Smart Growth Law
http://www.newgeography.com/content/002471-florida-repeals-smart-growth-law

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

The Fed may be the means to destroy the middle class in the US, but they are certainly not the head of the hydra, just an appendage of it, like most all things that oppress us in the public view via shadowy strings. Hacking at the limbs isn't going to solve anything. If you want to kill the beast you have to exit the beast system. Sell your garbage paper assets for gold and silver. Be your own central bank. Stop giving them your money to use against you.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

That's the plan World Wide Communism where the elite's share the gains the rest of us the pain. Speaking of Oligarch's look who is still obama's go to guys his favorite banker and the oligarch of Omaha

 

Obama's Fiscal Cliff Chats Reportedly Extended To Buffett, JPMorgan's Dimon

http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2012/11/19/obamas-fiscal-cliff-ch...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Either way, austerity is coming our way, it's just a matter in what manner and by how much, and whether it becomes an orderly or disorderly process.

Nope, no austerity coming. Bennie will print all the currency needed to keep funding govt debt, just like Draghi will print all the Euros needed to keep funding govt debt over there, and BOJ will print all the Yen neeeded to keep funding govt debt over there.

No way will any central bank cut off credit to the govt allowing them to exist. 

What IS coming is hyperinflation then currency collapse ...and it'll be very disorderly when it happens.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

 

We have never seen in history the population ageing and living longer in such a fashion, not just in the U.S. but around the world, and that raises the question of how high growth can go.... we are in the midst of a major defeveraging in the entire developed world, which is going to continue in 2013 and 2014.

Obamacare will take care of some of this problem right handily in a couple of years. As a good Fabian, Obama will clear the decks of unproductive old while stealing their wealth to buy more votes. 

FORWARD SOVIET! To Mom & Dad's funeral, state paid, of course.

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment archon
archon's picture

LMAO @ "austerity"...  which in this case obviously means slowing down the rate of money printing...  like a fat lady having a Diet Coke with her Triple Whopper & french fries for "second lunch".

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Dear David: Doubling the "flow" of QE on Jan 1 2013 is not a "firecracker."

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Kitler
Kitler's picture

It's all a merely a warm-up act for Ben's neutron lisquidity bomb.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Tripling the flow of QE won't change the ultimate outcome, so yes, it's a firecracker. "...full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing."

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

Has this author seen the faces of America and the west? What planet is he on?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

The author is not American. The last paragraph gives it away.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

.

"The Fed at this point, having used its bazookas, is now down to firecrackers."

 

What a complete load of shit.

The fed has nothing to begin with it just creates money out of thin air!

I never had bazookas firecrackers or anything else useful at all. The Fed will do whatever the hell it pleases, and moronic simplicity like this Author pretending that he can infer what the Fed can or cant do is just laughable.

The Fed may choose to modulate the flow of new funds to offset the natural deflationary tendency in whatever way it sees fit. It will do it behind a screen of smoke mirrors and  unpronounceable acronyms. It will try and effect a mild deflation while having to pretend it knows nothing about the cause of unexpectedly inflationary pockets which will constantly confound its efforts to re inflate its favorite two speculative bubbles.

This is how it is from now on. Central banks openly grasping the levers of power, totally independent of political consequences. Political parties towing the line or finding themselves "out of favor" with the central bankers. (how does austerity sound Mr president?).

The sheeple NEED that money because they have bills and mortgages to pay, and the central banks are the only ones who can feed  the debt ponzi to keep it satisfied for another week or two or three or four....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

"That begins with business spending."

What make you of this tomfoolery?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

+1 for using the word, tomfoolery.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

No more 'ballyhoo' either...

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftl_ckcpZgY

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I believe hooliganisms would be appropriate, as well.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

No more brouhaha for you either. 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:13 | Link to Comment goat
goat's picture

Buffoonery is in play.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

S&P off its pre-open manipulated highs. The selling continues.

Just like the Fed is down to firecrackers, the cabal is going for crumbs now. Whoever is left stupid enough to buy their pump deserves to be taken to the cleaners.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It's okay.  All is well.  Everything will be peachy keen.  "Turbo Tax" Timmy reportedly thinks the federal debt limit ceiling should be ELIMINATED:

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/treasury-secretary-geithner-lift-debt-li...

Holy FUBAR!  How much more f'ed up can this get...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Cool. If they eliminate the debt ceiling on US federal debt, then we can all eliminate our personal debt ceilings. Paper currency is finally reduced to what it truly represents. Funny money. I welcome Timmy's "thoughts"!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It is desperation.  There is no realistic chance we will see balanced budgets (or an economic growth rate that is even close to the rate of growth of debt) anytime soon (if ever).  This bureaucrat is just trying to eliminate the inconvenience of "checks and balances" so they can continue spending ourselves into oblivion.

100% goddam FUBAR.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Current growth models are all obsolete in a peak commodity environment. We could grow all day and night long when oil was cheap and abundant.

It is time to redefine "growth" in general or even discuss the importance of growth. Do we need to grow forever to survive economically? If we reduce our oil or energy consumption, we are more efficient and we are also longer sustainable. That's positively impacting our ability to "grow". We could feed and house more people with less, the net benefit is still "growth". But it's not accounted as such, cannot be leveraged against and therein lies the problem.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

DOJ is an arm of the executive branch, i.e no chex&balances. The judicial, hired by the executive, is also an arm of the executive, i.e. no chex&balances.

They're just enacting on the obvious reality, really. Why have a debt ceiling when we're not gonna honor it? It's like a smoker, trying to quit... after one more pack.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I, for one, would like to see a return to the old practice of tarring and feathering.  I would love to see Turbo Tax Timmy adorned in tar and feathers.  It could be a pay-per-view event with the proceeds going to pay down the debt...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I think pay-per-view sucks lemons, and I would gladly shell out $20 for that. Unfortunately, 16 trillion divided by 300 million is about 5 million and change per person. The only way Joe Average will see 5mil is if the Benecopter goes on duty.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

What did I miss here? The debt limit actually means something? Ha! Ha, Ha! I guffaw in your direction.

FORWARD SOVIETS!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

"Bernanke's sermon tomorrow at the Economics Club of New York (12:15 PM) on the econom...."

 

Stand by for gold and silver to take a bath around 12.14 PM

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

I fondly remember the days when the mere sight of his trim beard sent real money soaring towards the splendor of the heavens.  =/

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

China and Russia know the way to take down the US is not through the military but through economic means.

Turn the US more and more socialistic, load the US down with debt and take away key industries.

Eventually the US economic system collapses under the weight of it's entitlements and debt. Using up it's wealth and reserve currency status. 

Eventually the US won't be able to afford it's military. Look at the former Soviet Union.

 

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Nehweh Gahnin
Nehweh Gahnin's picture

Yeah, it's the damned commies.

What year is this?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I agree in principle, but I don't think that either the Chinese or Russians are responsbile for the take-down. The Russians learned their lessons earlier and the Chinese are profiteers of a greedy US oligarchy.

The US oligarchy or elite is eating their own children. That's what happens in the end stages of any society where corruption and fraud run amok.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My thoughts as well.  We are essentially the Soviet Union, sometime around 1987 maybe.  The outcome will be the same for us.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

...via the marxist Cloward-Piven Plan.

A people living under a lawful, representative Republic does NOT figure into the plans of TPTB.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

What if the ruble was the reserve currency? Then do you think the USSR would have collapsed?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

The ruble was the reserve currency of the Soviet Union just like the dollar is the reserve currency of the west.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Banksters
Banksters's picture

Austere policies will cause a deflationary collapse. If the banks and uber corps are the only well capitalized entities- see citigroup bailout, which is currently the case, it leaves the masses with only one good option, revolution!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture


"The Fed, Having Used Its Bazookas, Is Now Down To Firecrackers"

Crickets...I only hear crickets.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's one hell of a ladyfinger to jack the SPX up 26 handles and counting in less than 2 trading days.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Friday ended 1359, Monday opened 1373. The rest is noise and theft. If they wanted to open at 1332 tomorrow, they could do that just as easy as opening at 1415. Either way, you're totally fucked trying to trade this bullshit.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Not if you get the script before the opening act.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

True. I must be on the wrong email subscription list.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

Yogibear

Tthe Soviet Union was brought down by Chernobyl.  Also, see Japan in two year or less.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Disagree, Chernobyl was only a small part of the overall systematic problem. The Soviet system became more inefficient as time went on after it's revolution. Except for WWII and the nationalism it created it was a failed system. Afghanistan both demoralized and weakened the Soviet Union. It could also no longer economically support it's communist countries (Remember Poland broke away in the early 80's, Solidarity ) . Then others followed. Then people within it's regions demanded change,

The US burying itself in socialism/entitlements. Eventually entitlements eat up the entire US budget. Any politician talking against entitlements will be ousted. So only those offering more free stuff get elected. Self enforcing. Eventually bankrupting the US.   

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, TOTAL COLLAPSE

growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, TOTAL COLLAPSE

growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, growth, TOTAL COLLAPSE

+

that's the way its always been and will always be.  unless we're going to abandon fiat money and "central banking" - governments need to understand that the "TOTAL COLLAPSE" phase is unavoidable - and just getting started.  

30 years from now - after the smoke has cleared - we'll be back to growth, growth, growth, growth ....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Nehweh Gahnin
Nehweh Gahnin's picture

Exactly right, for those still here in 30 years.  Growing broccoli.  Growing cabbage.  Growing potatoes.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Timmay
Timmay's picture

Let's have real tax reform and simplify the tax code and cloose loopholes. Oh wait, that's right, the army of CPA's and tax Attorneys will decend on the capitol like locusts to ensure the tax code stays complicated and lengthy thus ensuring their employment.

Inefficiency = work. Work = votes for politicians. Waste = inefficiency.

We need a new paradigm alltogether.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:24 | Link to Comment goat
goat's picture

I think most CPAs would rather concentrate on what they trained for (business accounting) than tax reporting.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

All this means is that the Fed will dramatically ramp up its purchases.  I wouldn't be surprised if they simply close down all reporting of what they are buying, and how much.  There's $40 trillion more to steal--by my calculation--before it all explodes in a depression.  How fast that is done?  Well, I guess unemployment figures will tell us that (the honest ones, that is).

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Osiris, Aggression, & Bling

Did you see that WSJ piece on General bling over time?

When an empire hits the demographic wall, and this one clearly has, despite all of its data to the contrary, you have to give it a new religion and a new constitution to reboot it. The timing depends upon how you want to take advantage of its falling gravity. Individual laborers have individual religions and constitutions accordingly.

Physical aggression weeds in intelligence, which weeds in love. Passive aggression weeds out intelligence (in emotion), which weeds out love (in irrationality). Orisis was invented to end physical cannibalism, which is a rational response in time of severe scarcity. You’re going to think twice about participating in passive aggressive behavior if it increases the probability you are going to get eaten. The problem with Osiris and now Christianity is the resulting spiritual, intellectual and physical vacuum.

On one end of the decision probability outcome you have love, in a negative feedback loop, balancing passive aggressive behavior, the empire, on the other, in a positive feedback loop. Passive aggressives pay all kinds of lip service to love, because they are incapable of building their own reservoir. Laborers intelligently apply physical aggression at work to the end of love in the home. The empire perpetuates passive aggressive behavior because it is incapable of raising children capable of standing up to the empire on their own two feet, paying it in bling.

Natural reparation is imbedded in the culture of Africa, which is why it had to be enslaved and colonized, with a monetary Pavlov swap in reparation, giving us Sharpton, Jackson, Obama, Buffet, and Gates. The republicans pull the least educated immigrants in to take advantage, and pass them off to the democrats, who promise reparation, in a demographic Ponzi scheme, until the dream/nightmare goes kaboom. The empire replaces real work, abundance, with make-work, scarcity, until it can’t.

Tempels:  The older force ever dominates the younger. It continues to exercise its living influence over it.

Megesa:  God has granted the ancestors a qualitatively more powerful life force over their descendants. They form a chain through the links of which the forces of the elders [now with the community] exercise their vitalizing influence on the living generation. [T]he ancestors form the principle strand without which the fabric collapses. The operating principle is presence. The ancestors, though dead, are present and continue to influence life in their erstwhile communities on earth. [T]he ancestors will refrain from bringing misfortune onto their descendants unless it is extremely necessary, to remind them of the demands of the order of the universe, for their own good. The sole purpose of existence is to seek life, to see to it that human life continues and grows to its full capacity.

Evans-Pritchard:  The spirits are not each other but they are all God in different figures.

Magesa:  African religion is entirely a living religion, not a doctrinal one. It requires no formal induction. One is born into it and one learns it from childhood throughout one’s life through normal socialization. It is a religion that is taken for granted within the community and generally needs neither proselytizers nor converts. In this system being is the same as doing.

Young:  structured by the quest to bring opposite forces into equilibrium, the visible and the invisible.

Magesa:  In fact, if they are misused by an individual or the community, that is, if their vital force is uselessly disturbed and disaster befalls the community, the ruler is ultimately responsible.

Reluctance or utter refusal to share with God, one’s ancestors, other persons in the community, and the community itself – in a word, greed – destroys the ‘communitarian’ purpose of the universe and is immoral. It is imperative, therefore, for example, that one share life by begetting children. The presence of children assures that the life of the individual, the clan, and the lineage continues as the children bear the names of their ancestors. If the lineage of a given family in the clan has to cease, to die, because of lack of offspring to carry it on by name, part of the life of the clan ceases as well. It dies. For a person to cause this to happen knowingly and intentionally constitutes one of the worst crimes or moral wrongs against oneself, the community, and society generally. For what is demanded as the ultimate good is that life be preserved and perpetuated in every way possible, in its past, present and future forms.

--------

The empire doesn’t target your name, your identity, by accident. Foregoing your own identity, for an empire identity, is not the answer. The difference between Putin and his Western counterparts is the number of layers between them and the hit man. Relative to Merkel, Putin is honest and direct. Democracy wants slave labor, government demand control, and a scapegoat, which Putin provides, for a fee. Ikea is one of many.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

People in the US mistake freedom of consumer choice(pick which one of 50 fucking brands of toothpaste do you want) to actual Founding Fathers' style liberty. plus- the food at Ikea sucks

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

cut down liberty per the manufactured crisis of a fiscal cliff and replace it with consumption

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

"Let us start our Republic with a chain of drug stores, a chain of grocery stores, a chain of gas chambers, and a national game. After that we can write our Constitution." -

The Book of Bokonon - The Seventh Book: Bokonon's Republic
Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

don't forget "Papa" Monzano

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Hey Dave, there is Brunello di Montacino, and there is Brunello di Montalcino. Some of the cheaper stuff is barely fit for cooking with. Would like to know if anyone knows which label Obummer gave to Boner. Valdicava? Casanova di Neri Cerretalto?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Obama has given alot of "overnight Bangkok interviews" at Man's Country Bath House in Chicago.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Lord Drek
Lord Drek's picture

To what can we liken modern America? I honestly don't think there is a precedent for what we're about to experience. The rhetoric will continue till the masses realize--the hard way--that it was a lie. A lie 100 years in the making. There simply isn't enough $$$ to pay for trillions in promised entitlements. But don't worry...1B rounds of HP. 45 will sway public opinion. If the FEMA camps run smoothly, we may just get through this thing with only a few million deaths.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Firecrackers?  More like Farts with explosive diarriah. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

ladyfingers, bitchez

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

This is ridiculous.  There is no physical constraint to what monetary "weapons" the fed can use.  All is required is for Bernanke and Yellen to imagine it, and they can fire it at the economy.  Nukes, yup, that's next, Antimatter bombs the size of planets, yes, those will be dropped after the monetary nukes.   The fact is, the fed is trapped in a logarithmic curve.  They will follow the curve of ever greater monetization, or the system will fully break down.  That's it.  It's fucking simple.  

 

Peter Bernholz is mandatory reading.  Deficits are the cause of hyperinflation in the long run.  It is an empirical fact.   

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Tis true.  They have control of the horizontal and the vertical.

They can literally do WHATEVER they want to do at any given moment.  If they want to jam the SPX up 500 handles in an hour, they can do it.  You might argue that they WON'T do it.  But, you can't argue that they CAN'T do it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Angry White Dude
Angry White Dude's picture

Exactly! Only question is which currency implodes first. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Just like every other massive FED injection day.

Huge shove upward out of the gate.  Drift directionlessly all day.  Then, bang the close on vapor volume.

I've never seen this before.  Never.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment JosephConrad
JosephConrad's picture

Keep your eyes open. You will see more and WORSE. The Fed is the most CORRUPT, FELONIOUS FINANCIAL SCAM in America and Americans jsut love to feel the PAIN it & its BOSSES continue to inflict righ in the FACE of he Courts & justice Department! 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

The gov't just raised taxes on divvys. Savers are hoarders!

Signed,

Lil' Bernanke

 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No.  There will be no austerity in the USA.  To think that will happen is a complete misunderstanding of how the system operates.  Austerity is meaningless without a gold standard.  There is no reason to do it and it accomplishes nothing.  We use fiat so we don;t have to ever do the austerity thing.  And if we did do auterity on a fiat currency, it would still lose value even as they tried to make it scarce.  It is economic suicide.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Had to stop reading at "Oversold equity markerts"...

Got a good laugh for such a short read.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Folks, don't be lulled, these fuckers will do whatever it takes to keep on bleeding you dry and keeping themselves on top of the heap one way or the other.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment W10321303
W10321303's picture

Speculating on the the non-Future, It's later than you think boys and girls.  Narcissism is the opiate of the deranged Plutocracy!

2. Observed Climate Changes and Impacts 5
The Rise of CO2 Concentrations and Emissions 5
Rising Global Mean Temperature 6
Increasing Ocean Heat Storage 6
Rising Sea Levels 7
Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and Antarctica 8
Ocean Acidification 11
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice 12
Heat Waves and Extreme Temperatures 13
Drought and Aridity Trends 14
Agricultural Impacts 15
Extreme Events in the Period 2000–12 16
Possible Mechanism for Extreme Event Synchronization 16
Welfare Impacts 17
3. 21st Century Projections 21
How Likely is a 4°C World? 23
CO2 Concentration and Ocean Acidification
And in the language of development bankers and economists: “Projections of damage costs for climate change impacts typically assess the costs of local damages, including infrastructure, and do not provide an adequate consideration of cascade effects (for example, value-added chains and supply networks) at national and regional scales. However, in an increasingly globalized world that experiences further specialization in production systems, and thus higher dependency on infrastructure to deliver produced goods, damages to infrastructure systems can lead to substantial indirect impacts. Seaports are an example of an initial point where a breakdown or substantial disruption in infrastructure facilities could trigger impacts that reach far beyond the particular location of the loss.”

The message of this report is that when considering the cost of a world four degrees warmer and the overlap of that warmer world with people, our built infrastructure, and fragile countries, then we must take the steps to avoid that warmer world. And, that is likely to be four degrees on the way to six degrees.

Next, I will consider this report in context of the International Energy Agency report North America leads shift in global energy balance, IEA says in latest World Energy Outlook.http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_hea...

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!