Housing Confidence Soars To Early 2006 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture

The always prescient NAHB index reached levels not seen since May 2006 this morning completing its sixth beat out of the last seven with its biggest jump since July (a five-sigma beat of expectation no less!). Driven by a huge 8 point jump in 'present' sales (an all-time record 13-month rise?) and a rise in the outlook driven by a huge jump in Midwest expectations. We can only look on with incredulity that this index is given any credibility at all. Perhaps a longer-term look at the index is useful to realize that while we have risen, we are merely at the 9/11/01 trough levels - as always context is king.


NAHB Index rises to May 06 levels...


The Present Sales index has risen its most ever in the last 13-months - historically this kind of epic rise in the index has capped further gains for 3-6 months...


led by Midwest Present Sales... which are back near the highs of 2005!!!


Charts: Bloomberg

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buzzsaw99's picture

Don't worry about Bob Toll, he sold at the top.

GetZeeGold's picture




No problem - Baghdad Bob

Zer0head's picture

and from our Friends at Blackstone

"we're here to help you"





"Since late 2009, when markets appeared to be bottoming, Blackstone’s real estate funds" (moved in for the kill)

mick68's picture

Banks need a mini boom to sell their dead inventory into, and this will do. Look for discrete releases of these foreclosed properties to rise, along with a faster pace of foreclosures on properties people have been living rent free in for years.


Oh wait, isn't that why Ben gives the banks 40bn per month? My bad, banks always get paid twice, three times even.

HeatMiser's picture

Somebody should have told them the election is over.

docj's picture

Hope-n-Change, baby.

Hope And Change.

LeisureSmith's picture

Juice, Pump and Goose. It's the new slogan.

falak pema's picture

xmas time is very appropriate for roller coaster rides. 

Correction is not ordre du jour, can't spoil Potus and Netty xmas plans! 

haskelslocal's picture

There is a level of insanity in Central California where cash offers are coming in and taking down houses at 50% premiums. Recently two houses sold for $550k and $800k to the same renovator, one a long term tennant death the other a short sale. He put $200k into the first and $100k into the second and sold them for $1.1m and $1.5m respectively. Both in the first week, both with multiple bids.

J 457's picture

Where exactly in Central Ca. did this happen?

km4's picture

Remember Fed's Bubble "Merry-Go-Round" In One Tweet

@PIMCO Gross: Fed merry-go-round: inflate stocks til 2000. Then inflate housing til 2007. Then inflate stocks til 2012. Now inflate housing again.

Whee !

FLUSA.com's picture

A defunct subdivision came on the market near me that my investor client valued at $3M using basic math and market conditions,  then a national builder bought it for $11.2M at the court house steps. That is all....

Kaiser Sousa's picture

what a bunch of utter fucking bullshit....let me see....exactly form what and who r these lyin ass mother fuckers drawing this confidence from....

could it be nearly 50 million on food stamps....?

16 trillion dollar deficit and counting...?

nearly 300 trillion dollars in total debt...?

middle class extinction....?

college educated serfs cohabitating with ma, pa, grandma, and grandpa????

yeah, CONfidence you can believe in........

kliguy38's picture

CONtrolfidence is the new term

Village Smithy's picture

Hey, Tyler's previous post explained it all. Sales at S&P 500 companies are way down. That's because people are buying houses instead! Right? <sarc> 

Dagny Taggart's picture

Perhaps it's the exodus from the cities to reposition before the big crash... oh wait, it's still NFL season lol.

Rainman's picture

Dump more Treasury cowbell into FHA and new housing will be at the '98 level. Summer of Recovery '13 !!!!!!! ....zero down, zero interest, 30 years !!

chunga's picture

Here is some good context. The MERS Secret Electronic Mortgage Society is illegal.

Judge Rubine declares Wells Fargo foreclosure null and void

From the RI Superior Court 11/16/2012:

“this Court to quiet title in favor of Plaintiffs and to declare Defendant Wells Fargo?s foreclosure on the real property located at 155 Fuller Street, Pawtucket, Rhode Island (the “Property”) null and void, and therefore ineffective, as Defendants allegedly had no standing to exercise the statutory power of sale”

XtraBullish's picture

Never underestimate the rplacement power of < HOUSING > within a hyperinflationary spiral.

(You can insert < ANYTHING > between the brackets - <GOLD> ,  <STOCKS > , < BUBBLE GUM > <RUSSIAN VODKA > .....


fonzannoon's picture

Looks like we can blow another housing bubble after all. Whodathunkit....

adr's picture

This can be a housing bubble with no actual buyers, and nobody actually living in or owning the homes. WHOLYFUCKINSHIT!!!!!!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

So we're doing the 'Its for the elections' stuff STILL?? 

Well it appears when youre pumping in $85 billion a month, you can make the numbers show whatever full-retard euphoria you want. Anyway, good luck selling it, you'll need it unless youve got a direct FED pipeline.

adr's picture

Yes homebuilder CONfidence. When the homebuilders found they could double or triple their stock price by claiming they were more confident, while actually not selling any more homes, that ended any reality in the housing market.

I'd really like to find these mythical homebuyers. My local paper lists less than 30 sales per week in 14 cities, with more than half of them being bank transfers.

The wealth effect supporting confidence in homebuilder shareholders is plain to see. I wish my company could release a report saying we were more confident with sales tanking and have our worth double.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea...I wonder how any of this is not racketeering? 

Bay of Pigs's picture

That's illegal right?


Vince Clortho's picture

If you eliminate the racketerring from Housing, Politics and banking, you would not have much left to look at.

4Y_LURKER's picture

One merely has to look over at the shiny new local prison to see all of the homes that have been built.  Apparently, every cell is a potential "home."  Now.  I wonder how the jobs numbers are manipulated...hmmm? 

jim249's picture

They come up with these reports to try and get people tp panic and rush out to buy homes. The same kind of bs that got us into the the 2007 crash. Take this garbage reporting with a grain of salt.

foodstampbarry's picture

A report came out last week by the business community that said companies plan on hiring 30% more associate degress next year...Yeah rite. The whole system is now one big fucking con job.

Stuck on Zero's picture

A friend just purchased her first home.  She borrowed $750K after putting 3% down.  For a 30 year fixed Jumbo she is paying 3.5% interest.  On top of that she received her 3% down as cash back on the loan.  What's to lose?


Village Smithy's picture

If she's making that kind of coin then you should marry her and get control of that awesome cash flow. Someone who can manage it responsibly needs to step in there.

J 457's picture

Hmmm.  Really?? I've not seen any 750k fixed jumbos at 3% down with cash back at closing.  Those type loans vanished in 2007.


Stuck on Zero's picture

You can tell that a lot of lesons have been learned since that time.  The house is in South Park in San Diego.


Blankenstein's picture

Check out the limits on these FHA loans (CA) from 2011.  The maximum for a single family residence in select areas is $729,750.   Quite a few counties have loan limits in the $400ks and $500s.  

I thought FHA was for first time home buyers who didn't have a lot of money and had a hard time coming up with a down payment.  For a $730k house, the buyer should earn at the MINIMUM $243,000 per year.  Our government is comprised of morons and dipshits.  



Inthemix96's picture

Well to be fair.  My confidence is at an all time high, running on from the 2006 period as well.

I am more than confident that these sum-bitches are only making things worse.  An I am equally confident that fuck all will be done about it.  And as as for your average joe around these parts, I am as confident as I ever was that he will eventually be asked to pay the price for TPTB monumental transgresions.  As ever.

But, I have a feeling that this unconditional confidence could be over-confident in these, un-conventional calamitous times.

Who knows?  And here, fuck you bernank, fucking poisened dwarf.

djcando's picture

Just re-fied my home again.  3.75% jumbo with all fees included and only out of pocket a $300 appraisal fee.  Unfortunately the appraisal came in 1.6% below the one that was done last year at this time.

Not sure about value trends out here in CA.  What do people see in other parts of the country?

fonzannoon's picture

I'm at 4.625% Tried to refi a month ago. My mortgage broker had a good laugh. My loan is a conventional because my stupid ass put down 20% originally. Had I been a deabeat and put down 3% I would have had a FHA loan and would have a bunch of programs availabe to me.  Since I saved and tried to do things "the right way" I am screwed.


JimBowie1958's picture

Refied at 3.5% here through a VA loan with no money down.

Good credit helps, but had I tried to change anything about my mortgage I would not have been qualified, so it sounds like some kind of VA benefit with artificially low rates, etc.

Everyman's picture

From the NAHB site:


The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next 6 months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes. 


The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices for these three key single-family series. The first two series are rated on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor and the last is rated on a scale of High/Very High, Average, and Low/Very Low.  A diffusion index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(Good-Poor+100)/2” to the present and future sales series and “(High/Very High – Low/Very Low + 100)/2” to the traffic series. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.


Based on this calculation, the HMI can range between 0 and 100.


I am SO GLAD this is done with real numbers, LOL!!!




Floodmaster's picture

Don't pay more than 3 times the zipcode Income.

Miss Expectations's picture

That's it.  I've just about had enough.  It's just like Terms of Endearment.  The only reason I didn't walk out was because, by the end, I wanted Debra Winger to die.

Village Smithy's picture

Bernanke's speech last week layed it all out there. A housing market recovery (just like the Russell 2000 hint, hint) is crucial to improving the jobs situation. "The Federal Reserve will continue to do what we can to support the housing recovery,...". Certainly accepting NAHB numbers without question and keeping a bid in XHB is well within "do what we can". 

booboo's picture

Someone has been squirting hopium laced jizzum in the creamer down at headquarters. Labor shortages in the South, yes you heard that right, even the Mexicans have their limits to margin compression. They are squeezing the mexican labor so hard that they are opting for welfare or heading back across the River of the Grande. The Big Builders are treated like the TBTF Banks. Even the local Building Departments are turning a blind eye to shitty construction practices.

It's a free for all, well except for the taxpayers...er bagholders.

q99x2's picture

Tme for the caravans to take to the air to lock up those China pools of hot money. Reminds me of the ole Samual Russel pump and dump days. Be able to buy it all back pennies on the dollar in a year or two.

bugs_'s picture

maybe expats on the run in Belize are coming back

ZFiNX's picture

Looks like a bear market rally if I ever saw one.

dbomb12's picture

The Blackstone group is the real Mr. potter from a wonderful Life they are buying up cheap real estate everywhere and turning into rentals.