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Housing Confidence Soars To Early 2006 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture


The always prescient NAHB index reached levels not seen since May 2006 this morning completing its sixth beat out of the last seven with its biggest jump since July (a five-sigma beat of expectation no less!). Driven by a huge 8 point jump in 'present' sales (an all-time record 13-month rise?) and a rise in the outlook driven by a huge jump in Midwest expectations. We can only look on with incredulity that this index is given any credibility at all. Perhaps a longer-term look at the index is useful to realize that while we have risen, we are merely at the 9/11/01 trough levels - as always context is king.


NAHB Index rises to May 06 levels...


The Present Sales index has risen its most ever in the last 13-months - historically this kind of epic rise in the index has capped further gains for 3-6 months...


led by Midwest Present Sales... which are back near the highs of 2005!!!


Charts: Bloomberg


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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Don't worry about Bob Toll, he sold at the top.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture




No problem - Baghdad Bob

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

and from our Friends at Blackstone

"we're here to help you"


"Since late 2009, when markets appeared to be bottoming, Blackstone’s real estate funds" (moved in for the kill)

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment mick68
mick68's picture

Banks need a mini boom to sell their dead inventory into, and this will do. Look for discrete releases of these foreclosed properties to rise, along with a faster pace of foreclosures on properties people have been living rent free in for years.


Oh wait, isn't that why Ben gives the banks 40bn per month? My bad, banks always get paid twice, three times even.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment HeatMiser
HeatMiser's picture

Somebody should have told them the election is over.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Hope-n-Change, baby.

Hope And Change.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Juice, Pump and Goose. It's the new slogan.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

xmas time is very appropriate for roller coaster rides. 

Correction is not ordre du jour, can't spoil Potus and Netty xmas plans! 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

There is a level of insanity in Central California where cash offers are coming in and taking down houses at 50% premiums. Recently two houses sold for $550k and $800k to the same renovator, one a long term tennant death the other a short sale. He put $200k into the first and $100k into the second and sold them for $1.1m and $1.5m respectively. Both in the first week, both with multiple bids.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You can't put a price on stupid.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

They just did.

Bah Bah.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Where exactly in Central Ca. did this happen?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment km4
km4's picture

Remember Fed's Bubble "Merry-Go-Round" In One Tweet

@PIMCO Gross: Fed merry-go-round: inflate stocks til 2000. Then inflate housing til 2007. Then inflate stocks til 2012. Now inflate housing again.

Whee !

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment's picture

A defunct subdivision came on the market near me that my investor client valued at $3M using basic math and market conditions,  then a national builder bought it for $11.2M at the court house steps. That is all....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

what a bunch of utter fucking bullshit....let me see....exactly form what and who r these lyin ass mother fuckers drawing this confidence from....

could it be nearly 50 million on food stamps....?

16 trillion dollar deficit and counting...?

nearly 300 trillion dollars in total debt...?

middle class extinction....?

college educated serfs cohabitating with ma, pa, grandma, and grandpa????

yeah, CONfidence you can believe in........

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

CONtrolfidence is the new term

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Hey, Tyler's previous post explained it all. Sales at S&P 500 companies are way down. That's because people are buying houses instead! Right? <sarc> 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Perhaps it's the exodus from the cities to reposition before the big crash... oh wait, it's still NFL season lol.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Dump more Treasury cowbell into FHA and new housing will be at the '98 level. Summer of Recovery '13 !!!!!!! down, zero interest, 30 years !!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

Here is some good context. The MERS Secret Electronic Mortgage Society is illegal.

Judge Rubine declares Wells Fargo foreclosure null and void

From the RI Superior Court 11/16/2012:

“this Court to quiet title in favor of Plaintiffs and to declare Defendant Wells Fargo?s foreclosure on the real property located at 155 Fuller Street, Pawtucket, Rhode Island (the “Property”) null and void, and therefore ineffective, as Defendants allegedly had no standing to exercise the statutory power of sale”

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Never underestimate the rplacement power of < HOUSING > within a hyperinflationary spiral.

(You can insert < ANYTHING > between the brackets - <GOLD> ,  <STOCKS > , < BUBBLE GUM > <RUSSIAN VODKA > .....


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Looks like we can blow another housing bubble after all. Whodathunkit....

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

This can be a housing bubble with no actual buyers, and nobody actually living in or owning the homes. WHOLYFUCKINSHIT!!!!!!!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So we're doing the 'Its for the elections' stuff STILL?? 

Well it appears when youre pumping in $85 billion a month, you can make the numbers show whatever full-retard euphoria you want. Anyway, good luck selling it, you'll need it unless youve got a direct FED pipeline.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Yes homebuilder CONfidence. When the homebuilders found they could double or triple their stock price by claiming they were more confident, while actually not selling any more homes, that ended any reality in the housing market.

I'd really like to find these mythical homebuyers. My local paper lists less than 30 sales per week in 14 cities, with more than half of them being bank transfers.

The wealth effect supporting confidence in homebuilder shareholders is plain to see. I wish my company could release a report saying we were more confident with sales tanking and have our worth double.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea...I wonder how any of this is not racketeering? 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That's illegal right?


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

If you eliminate the racketerring from Housing, Politics and banking, you would not have much left to look at.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment 4Y_LURKER
4Y_LURKER's picture

One merely has to look over at the shiny new local prison to see all of the homes that have been built.  Apparently, every cell is a potential "home."  Now.  I wonder how the jobs numbers are manipulated...hmmm? 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment jim249
jim249's picture

They come up with these reports to try and get people tp panic and rush out to buy homes. The same kind of bs that got us into the the 2007 crash. Take this garbage reporting with a grain of salt.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

A report came out last week by the business community that said companies plan on hiring 30% more associate degress next year...Yeah rite. The whole system is now one big fucking con job.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Housing Market Index - It's A Relief Rally In A Bear Market

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

A friend just purchased her first home.  She borrowed $750K after putting 3% down.  For a 30 year fixed Jumbo she is paying 3.5% interest.  On top of that she received her 3% down as cash back on the loan.  What's to lose?


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

If she's making that kind of coin then you should marry her and get control of that awesome cash flow. Someone who can manage it responsibly needs to step in there.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Hmmm.  Really?? I've not seen any 750k fixed jumbos at 3% down with cash back at closing.  Those type loans vanished in 2007.


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

You can tell that a lot of lesons have been learned since that time.  The house is in South Park in San Diego.


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

Check out the limits on these FHA loans (CA) from 2011.  The maximum for a single family residence in select areas is $729,750.   Quite a few counties have loan limits in the $400ks and $500s.  

I thought FHA was for first time home buyers who didn't have a lot of money and had a hard time coming up with a down payment.  For a $730k house, the buyer should earn at the MINIMUM $243,000 per year.  Our government is comprised of morons and dipshits.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Well to be fair.  My confidence is at an all time high, running on from the 2006 period as well.

I am more than confident that these sum-bitches are only making things worse.  An I am equally confident that fuck all will be done about it.  And as as for your average joe around these parts, I am as confident as I ever was that he will eventually be asked to pay the price for TPTB monumental transgresions.  As ever.

But, I have a feeling that this unconditional confidence could be over-confident in these, un-conventional calamitous times.

Who knows?  And here, fuck you bernank, fucking poisened dwarf.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment djcando
djcando's picture

Just re-fied my home again.  3.75% jumbo with all fees included and only out of pocket a $300 appraisal fee.  Unfortunately the appraisal came in 1.6% below the one that was done last year at this time.

Not sure about value trends out here in CA.  What do people see in other parts of the country?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm at 4.625% Tried to refi a month ago. My mortgage broker had a good laugh. My loan is a conventional because my stupid ass put down 20% originally. Had I been a deabeat and put down 3% I would have had a FHA loan and would have a bunch of programs availabe to me.  Since I saved and tried to do things "the right way" I am screwed.


Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Refied at 3.5% here through a VA loan with no money down.

Good credit helps, but had I tried to change anything about my mortgage I would not have been qualified, so it sounds like some kind of VA benefit with artificially low rates, etc.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Everyman
Everyman's picture

From the NAHB site:


The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next 6 months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes. 


The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices for these three key single-family series. The first two series are rated on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor and the last is rated on a scale of High/Very High, Average, and Low/Very Low.  A diffusion index is calculated for each series by applying the formula “(Good-Poor+100)/2” to the present and future sales series and “(High/Very High – Low/Very Low + 100)/2” to the traffic series. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.


Based on this calculation, the HMI can range between 0 and 100.


I am SO GLAD this is done with real numbers, LOL!!!




Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Don't pay more than 3 times the zipcode Income.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

That's it.  I've just about had enough.  It's just like Terms of Endearment.  The only reason I didn't walk out was because, by the end, I wanted Debra Winger to die.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Bernanke's speech last week layed it all out there. A housing market recovery (just like the Russell 2000 hint, hint) is crucial to improving the jobs situation. "The Federal Reserve will continue to do what we can to support the housing recovery,...". Certainly accepting NAHB numbers without question and keeping a bid in XHB is well within "do what we can". 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Someone has been squirting hopium laced jizzum in the creamer down at headquarters. Labor shortages in the South, yes you heard that right, even the Mexicans have their limits to margin compression. They are squeezing the mexican labor so hard that they are opting for welfare or heading back across the River of the Grande. The Big Builders are treated like the TBTF Banks. Even the local Building Departments are turning a blind eye to shitty construction practices.

It's a free for all, well except for the bagholders.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Tme for the caravans to take to the air to lock up those China pools of hot money. Reminds me of the ole Samual Russel pump and dump days. Be able to buy it all back pennies on the dollar in a year or two.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

maybe expats on the run in Belize are coming back

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Looks like a bear market rally if I ever saw one.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

The Blackstone group is the real Mr. potter from a wonderful Life they are buying up cheap real estate everywhere and turning into rentals.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment md2012
md2012's picture

People need to start buying again as there is a widening gap between the cost of owning a house and renting, the cost of renting is what is really soaring as can be seen here



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