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Where Will S&P Futures Re-Open?

Tyler Durden's picture


It seems the bond market was onto something today in its lack of exuberance. Following the after-hours FrAAnce downgrade, which very conveniently happened 2 minutes after the ES quiet period started, EURUSD has tumbled giving the day-session's gains back and retraced back to where Treasuries ended the day. This would infer S&P futures open down notably - around 1370-75 (note 1377 was closing VWAP and may be support).



Chart: Bloomberg


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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

i went short at the 200MA earlier.. then i watched Apple move up 2% more and drag SPX straight through. This annoyed me at the time.

Karma Bitchezz

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

"Where will it open tomorrow?"  Well, in a non-manipulated non-central planning market, the ES futures would have been -20.00 shortly after the announcement. As I type this, however, it is only -2.00...or -8 fucking TICKS. 


Do not be surprised to see it open higher tomorrow - yes, higher because in this shit-show of a marketplace, only a gap-up open would make sense.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

It'll open down.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

They want a rally into Black Friday-nothing will deter them.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Slim
Slim's picture

Agree - and that was the first thing I thought when I watched the big spike this morning.  A France downgrade is horrendous but they will pull it off somehow.  Look at most every lightly traded holiday week for years now.  If people feel shitty they don't spend. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment The.Oracle
The.Oracle's picture

So Friday is the day you figure this whole mess falls apart? I hope I am there with my finger on the trigger when it comes... I thought it was going to be last Monday so I've already been wrong once.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I have no clue when it all falls apart but short term I think they'll pump it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:40 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture's futures service has S&P down a mere 1.50 points (7:38 PM ET), nothing really.  We will see.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

dupe comment

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

aaannnnd, it's gone!




ES just went green.


fuck it all.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

es 1500+, Timmy's a buyer.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Sell the rumor buy the news.

The downgrade should have been 18 months ago

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Its just another Manic Market....Or was it Monday?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

I know that its up tomorrow and every groundhog day after....I know because my neighbor said there will be a turkey in every pot.....and he is a stock broker!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Time to fire up the document shredders at Moody's paris office stat.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

Imply, not infer.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

Thanks for keeping the standards high

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

nearly kissed the 38.2 % fib line and now heading south.  i'm short /es

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Seems to have re-opened down a gigantic 1 point.   Boy, that must have the longs shitting bricks...   

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

+1  Man, I am really sweating it out right now.  Down a whole 1 point.  The world is ending.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

*****  UPDATE *****    down 1.80 points now.... I understand from 'sources close to the matter' that stops are going off

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Martdin
Martdin's picture

I don't know man... It seems like the bulls have tasted blood and are anxious to get this trainwreck moving again.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

The annoying voice in my head tells me the Bernank will start ramping right into the open to get through the Blackest of Fridays. Voice says short at your own risk.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment PeteJE
PeteJE's picture

Clear as day that the risk on is still short here.  The micro trades are irrelevant.  133, then 120 then, potentially 100.  Today = adding day.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Its gotta go up so it can be shorted down...squeeze a few more into the close...there ya go.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Looking at the entire EU situation, France is a blip on the radar.  In a non-centrally planned socialist world where reality has a chance of suvival, Europe should be no higher than superlative junk.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Bullish!  Market will continue to "float" up on declining volume all week. 

Turkey day rally, then we have the Santa Clause rally.  S&P will be in the 1460 area again by X-mas... easy.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 21:14 | Link to Comment XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Tyler HELP! The E/S is crashing down a full point after the deaded France downgrade! What are we to do????

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

I bought the BAC Dec. puts @ the money on the late day ramp. Looking for a dime, we shall see.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Fully baked.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:36 | Link to Comment Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

I believe the technical analysis, whiich is saying the market is going far down here shortly.  Senseless 150+ point upside tells me people should be taking profit tomorrow.  This market may be some sort of semi-quantum-schrodinger cat, which bounces before it falls.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:42 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

one more run to the top

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment nscholten
nscholten's picture

Like ratings even matter...

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