Where Will S&P Futures Re-Open?

Tyler Durden's picture


It seems the bond market was onto something today in its lack of exuberance. Following the after-hours FrAAnce downgrade, which very conveniently happened 2 minutes after the ES quiet period started, EURUSD has tumbled giving the day-session's gains back and retraced back to where Treasuries ended the day. This would infer S&P futures open down notably - around 1370-75 (note 1377 was closing VWAP and may be support).



Chart: Bloomberg

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Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:44 | 2997151 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

i went short at the 200MA earlier.. then i watched Apple move up 2% more and drag SPX straight through. This annoyed me at the time.

Karma Bitchezz

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:31 | 2997311 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

"Where will it open tomorrow?"  Well, in a non-manipulated non-central planning market, the ES futures would have been -20.00 shortly after the announcement. As I type this, however, it is only -2.00...or -8 fucking TICKS. 


Do not be surprised to see it open higher tomorrow - yes, higher because in this shit-show of a marketplace, only a gap-up open would make sense.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:07 | 2997426 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

It'll open down.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:33 | 2997487 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

They want a rally into Black Friday-nothing will deter them.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:17 | 2997707 Slim
Slim's picture

Agree - and that was the first thing I thought when I watched the big spike this morning.  A France downgrade is horrendous but they will pull it off somehow.  Look at most every lightly traded holiday week for years now.  If people feel shitty they don't spend. 

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:22 | 2997711 The.Oracle
The.Oracle's picture

So Friday is the day you figure this whole mess falls apart? I hope I am there with my finger on the trigger when it comes... I thought it was going to be last Monday so I've already been wrong once.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:47 | 2997775 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I have no clue when it all falls apart but short term I think they'll pump it.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:40 | 2997505 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

finviz.com's futures service has S&P down a mere 1.50 points (7:38 PM ET), nothing really.  We will see.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:41 | 2997506 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

dupe comment

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 23:19 | 2997832 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

aaannnnd, it's gone!




ES just went green.


fuck it all.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:36 | 2997152 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

es 1500+, Timmy's a buyer.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:36 | 2997494 max2205
max2205's picture

Sell the rumor buy the news.

The downgrade should have been 18 months ago

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:41 | 2997163 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Its just another Manic Market....Or was it Monday?

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:53 | 2997203 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

I know that its up tomorrow and every groundhog day after....I know because my neighbor said there will be a turkey in every pot.....and he is a stock broker!!

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:42 | 2997167 Conman
Conman's picture

Time to fire up the document shredders at Moody's paris office stat.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:45 | 2997176 wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

Imply, not infer.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:28 | 2997301 spinone
spinone's picture

Thanks for keeping the standards high

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:46 | 2997180 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

nearly kissed the 38.2 % fib line and now heading south.  i'm short /es

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:48 | 2997184 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Seems to have re-opened down a gigantic 1 point.   Boy, that must have the longs shitting bricks...   

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:05 | 2997236 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

+1  Man, I am really sweating it out right now.  Down a whole 1 point.  The world is ending.  

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:28 | 2997470 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

*****  UPDATE *****    down 1.80 points now.... I understand from 'sources close to the matter' that stops are going off

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:55 | 2997205 Martdin
Martdin's picture

I don't know man... It seems like the bulls have tasted blood and are anxious to get this trainwreck moving again.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 18:57 | 2997215 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The annoying voice in my head tells me the Bernank will start ramping right into the open to get through the Blackest of Fridays. Voice says short at your own risk.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 19:06 | 2997241 PeteJE
PeteJE's picture

Clear as day that the risk on is still short here.  The micro trades are irrelevant.  133, then 120 then, potentially 100.  Today = adding day.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:02 | 2997410 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Its gotta go up so it can be shorted down...squeeze a few more into the close...there ya go.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:04 | 2997414 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Looking at the entire EU situation, France is a blip on the radar.  In a non-centrally planned socialist world where reality has a chance of suvival, Europe should be no higher than superlative junk.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 20:21 | 2997456 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Bullish!  Market will continue to "float" up on declining volume all week. 

Turkey day rally, then we have the Santa Clause rally.  S&P will be in the 1460 area again by X-mas... easy.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 21:14 | 2997585 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Tyler HELP! The E/S is crashing down a full point after the deaded France downgrade! What are we to do????

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 21:38 | 2997636 Landrew
Landrew's picture

I bought the BAC Dec. puts @ the money on the late day ramp. Looking for a dime, we shall see.

Mon, 11/19/2012 - 22:15 | 2997703 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Fully baked.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:36 | 2998009 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

I believe the technical analysis, whiich is saying the market is going far down here shortly.  Senseless 150+ point upside tells me people should be taking profit tomorrow.  This market may be some sort of semi-quantum-schrodinger cat, which bounces before it falls.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 01:42 | 2998016 caerus
caerus's picture

one more run to the top

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 07:52 | 2998235 nscholten
nscholten's picture

Like ratings even matter...

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