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Housing Starts Print At 4 Year High, As Sandy Effect Mysteriously Avoided

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With everyone throwing the kitchen sink into creating the illusion that this time housing has bottomed, seriously, this morning's report on housing starts and permits was set to be quite awkward: on one hand, realistic data accounting for weakness due to Sandy would have broken the housing momentum - many were expecting a far weaker than expected print precisely due to the Hurricane. On the other, the Census Bureau could have gone hog wild and completely ignored the same reality that apparently is impacting all other data points, and said housing starts soared to their highest number in 4 years, or a seasonally adjusted 894,000 in October, up 3.6% from a downward revised 863,000 in September, and well above expectations of a Sandy-driven decline of 3.7% to 840K. The CB opted for the latter, while adding a solid pinch of seasonal adjustment to the data, which not annualized and not seasonally adjusted rose from 77.8K to 77.9K sales. In this number was the drop in Northeast housing starts from 4K to 3.5K, the lowest since February. The mystery boost came in the West, where annualized starts rose from 198K to 232K, even as they dropped in the South and Northeast. Finally, and more irrelevant, housing permits dropped from 890K to 866K seasonally adjusted, even as the NSA number rose from 71.4K to 75.0K.

Finally with the trendline still far below historical, this too continues to be merely Fed-stimulus driven noise.

Housing starts and completions +6 month lag:

As a reminder: what it takes to sell a house these days:

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Tue, 11/20/2012 - 09:55 | 2998431 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

They are going to fold Sandy into the forward going seasonal adjustments....

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 09:58 | 2998442 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The revisions are going to hit like a hurricane.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:09 | 2998476 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

The truth is over rated.  The only revisions that will be made in this new administration will be ones that make our supreme leader look even more greaterer than the media plays him to be.  We should all bow down and kiss the ground he floats over.  It truly is happy happy / joy joy times for everyone....  Someone pass me the three seashell I have to take a crap now.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:10 | 2998479 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

We are all responsible for the effects of Sandy. Everyone here is to some extent responsible for using too much electricity. I admit that last night I had a hot bath, which was a failure of responsibility on my part. We all need to start making sacrifices in our every daily lives to prevent climate change and make sure every annual climatic measure stays within exactly two standard deviations of the 10 year average.  

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:16 | 2998503 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The first thing YOU should do is stay off the internet.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:32 | 2998550 economics9698
economics9698's picture

MDB 

"We can't go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce. When we import oil we are also importing inflation plus unemployment."

"We've got to use what we have. The Middle East has only five percent of the world's energy, but the United States has 24 percent."

And this is one of the most vivid statements: "Our neck is stretched over the fence and OPEC has a knife."

Jimmy Carter 7-15-1979 

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:06 | 2998675 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Carter was not reelected because the US people like to be lied to and-like children-don't like to take any kind of advice.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:10 | 2998686 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I think it was because we had more people with a IQ over 100 back in 1980.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 20:13 | 3000415 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No, it was the original "Hope and Changey" thingie....

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:46 | 2998614 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I agree with you.  I took my responsibility seriously.  I adjusted the carbuerator on my lawnmower to blow out a lot of smoke.  Then I started it, and let it run for six hours. 

mmmmmm......blue oil smoke.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:48 | 2998802 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

MillionDollarBonus....

You had a bath and YOU STILL FUCKING STINK.

Fuck off asshole.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:55 | 2998823 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Climactic measures adjusted per grant/funding models.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 12:23 | 2998935 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Doh, accuracy alert. Somebody is on to the "new" economy. But don't omit the access to dewy eyed co-eds filled with high school fervor to save the planet. 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:12 | 2998488 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

CYR, you really need to work on those anger issues otherwise I foresee cancer in your future...

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:02 | 2998452 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

So, more housing supply will help support housing prices?

This is supposed to be good news for homeowners?

Kinda like GM's channel-stuffing...

[PS: Keep the house.... I'll take the pizza...]

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:12 | 2998694 economics9698
economics9698's picture

lol, someone drank their coffee.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:04 | 2998459 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

As NAR are involved in these reports, they are all distorted! Realtors are the dumbest, most narcissistic, poorly trained, ignorant, sell their granny a house with no roof, snake oiled sales people that exist today!

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:34 | 2998508 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

I'm a Realtor, and as I see it, my job is to advise my clients of all the known facts regarding real estate they want to sell or buy. Real Estate is local in nature and the national numbers reported by anyone doesn't really matter to me, except for a possible macro trendline.  I look at the trends in our area and focus down to the property at hand.  My first obligation is my fiduciary relationship to my clients and I for one Realtor take that seriously.  Brokers can make money with the markets going up or down...my job is not to paint a rosy picture, just the most accurate one that I can at the time.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:08 | 2998681 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I thought your job was similar to a car salesman-get the product sold and suck up the commision for not a whole lot of work. the NAR is a monopoly that also racketeers

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 12:43 | 2999037 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

My question to FLUSA, how do you channel stuff a house?  You don't.  It sits there and rots in the rain.  Or, the residents of the neighborhood find Galt and burn the empties to the ground, gutting them first.

So sorry, perhaps you should sell fire insurance instead.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 17:42 | 3000019 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

FLAusa's job is to open closet doors, make statements like "I just love the color of that paint," ask if people would like something to drink or a cookie, and then tell them, regardless of shadow inventory levels (held by banks & GSEs only due to a tidal wave of excess reserves provided by The Bernank & massive interference by Treasury with the GSEs), "there's never been a better time to buy a home, bitchez!"

Hugh Honey & Vic Vinegar Close the Deal

(Sorry about the commercial in the beginning; only video clip available that I could find)

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 12:25 | 2998954 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

The most? What about "financial planners?" I think they rate a comment, so I've commented.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 09:55 | 2998432 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Weed legalized in the west...housing starts go crazy out there.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 09:59 | 2998448 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

If the chick in your avatar was included in the purchase of a house, SOLD TO ME!!!!!!

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:34 | 2998559 economics9698
economics9698's picture

She needs to bend over first before the sale.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:05 | 2998463 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've got block after block of empty houses out here ready to move in cheap, why bother with building one? 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:45 | 2998611 e-recep
e-recep's picture

nice avatar, please post more often.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 09:56 | 2998435 Silvertrader
Silvertrader's picture

When housing picks up, so will the economy. At least we hope so. In the mean time I take care of myself by trading CFD

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:00 | 2998449 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Tell us more!

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:35 | 2998565 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I think we need to let 20 million more Mexicans into America and housing starts will increase. /sarc

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:12 | 2998693 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

20 million-then they only need like 5000 house to pack them all into. then you get 40 shitty old Chevy Tahoes with $10K in rims parked in front of the house.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 12:32 | 2998979 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

The daring and execution of that slam was worthy of your avatar.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:05 | 2998464 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

REAL housing sales will pick up when REAL jobs pick up... as opposed to bs NRA (and now everyone else jumping on the bandwagon) numbers.

Fixed it for you silvertrader.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:10 | 2998443 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The builders are really making great strides at improving efficiency. Even as housing starts rise employment in the construction industry is falling. Wow, those builders! Seriously though Bernanke did say last week that the Fed would do everything in its power to restore the housing market. A quick phone call to the CB with some Phd. backed "advice" wouldn't be out of line then. 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:03 | 2998445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I guess if the FED was throwing $85 billion/month at me I'd look like a fuckin rock star too.

FED gives a diversion for the financial media whores to go gaga over while the country continues implosion. 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:05 | 2998460 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

You forgot to mention FHA-subsidized 100% LTV loans under 3%...

[Oh, yeah... and a free pizza...]

 

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:00 | 2998447 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Builders keep building until they can't borrow another dime (which won't happen with the bernank at the switch).

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:07 | 2998468 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Builders keep building until they can't borrow another dime (which won't happen with the bernank at the switch)."

yeah... what happens when you only have a hammer. lol

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:13 | 2998493 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Same business model for the shale gas and oil players...

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:00 | 2998454 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Perception Deception 101...
Keep em questioning whats real and false
Black and white becomes gray

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:01 | 2998456 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Housing starts start with permits and I am positive SuperStorm Sandy did not stop "paper" from being shoveled just in time for Christmas.

A Keynesian's wet dream...just think of all those "redesigns" coming up for new permits...Thanks Sandy!

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 12:39 | 2999016 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Now we need the department of tools (led by a "kaiser") to come in and insist that all shovels be abandoned for spoons, eliminate all power tools in favor of their "old school" forerunners...then horses, no oxen, no, let's not use those damned wheels, how unsporting. Get the damned slaves making bricks without straw and we'll have full employment in no time, paid by new Fed scrip. 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:02 | 2998457 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

How many toppings are included with that free pizza?

Probably none.....well, forget it then.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:03 | 2998458 youngman
youngman's picture

In Denver its all Apartments....all apartments

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 11:13 | 2998696 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

section 8?

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:09 | 2998473 ekm
ekm's picture

Let's assume for a moment that the data is correct.

So, there are 5 million empty houses in USA as per Seth Klarman, and what do we do?

Answer: We build more houses.

 

Does anybody remember the law of supply/demand?

This will lead to a further crash in prices and not gradual, but baaaaaaaaam, 40% less, as it happened in Canada in 1982. Overnight prices dropped 30-40%.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:37 | 2998581 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The revolution is anticipated to wipe out 25 million people or roughly 10 million homes so it should work out ok.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:08 | 2998474 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

North Atlanta getting Obamanized. A lot of downsizing going on, upscale apartments being built everywhere, insurance company financing.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:15 | 2998500 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

China is doing the same thing.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 10:08 | 2998475 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Brought to you buy the good folks with a maximum vested interest in duping the public into believing now is the opportunity of lifetime to buy a home.

Shocking.

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