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Meanwhile, In The Land Of The Setting Sun... And Exports

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Things are going from worst to worsterer in Japan. Somewhat ironically (given our recent post), this update to the state of play awaiting Mr. Abe is not good. With the Senkaku debacle flaring still in the background, we wonder just how much 'face' the Japanese are willing to lose as their exports fall 6.5% (for the fifth month in a row) dominated by an 11.6% drop 'to' China (which accounted for around 20% of Japanese exports until recently) making it extremely likely the nation is headed for yet another recession. The trade balance missed large to the downside yet again, extending a multi-year trend (and drastically reducing the 'net' exports capital buffer), and so (as USDJPY remains 'strong' despite REER being well below its 1995 peak) we are to believe yet another JPY1tn Koo-nesian fiscal stimulus will do the trick.

 

The trade balance is crushing the hopes and dreams of any recovery here...and removing that 'net' export capital buffer that helped for so long...

 

as exports plunge for the fifth month in a row (which seems like a never-ending story for the last few years)...

 

Crushed by the weight of China's door slamming shut...

 

as USDJPY 'strength' doesn't help vs JPY REER weakness (thank you Ben...)

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg and CLSA

 


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Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't look now, but I think that's the (government) debt boogie man peering over your shoulder.

<BOO>

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Somewhere in all of this I wonder if Krugman, Bernanke et. al. aren't looking outside their narrow constructs and saying, holy fucking shit, what the fuck?  Even if they are knowingly engineering the greatest economic collapse...

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Think of it not as an economic collapse, but as a protracted, painful, and likely permanent demise of economic prosperity brought about by the machinations of evil overlords disguised as, well, evil overlords. That is the only way I can make it through the day sometimes...........

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Let me suggest where the sun is really fcking setting

here in AMEIRka (note this is not an Alex Jones infowars feature but main fcking stream left coast media) we are so totally screwed - not to mention other MSM reports of widespread  crowd scanning technology 

So where does your information go? Likely it’s being stored on The Retail Equation, a service which tracks how often you bring stuff back and identifies habitual returners.

Return items too frequently, and you may lose your right to bring back your purchases anywhere.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2012/11/20/consumerwatch-stores-requiri...

 

you dumb (not referring to most of you, dear ZH readrers) emmefers who are the sad majority in America. best you wake up because today it may be  purchasing a deWalt for that weekend project but tomorrow it will be that transfat shit you fed to your dumbass kid as you weep when .gov snatches the brat for its own protection and then delivers same to Jeffery

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Yes, but Japan is still a bit ahead of us in the competitive Kool-Aid drinking category.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTjxd6MMtXM

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 04:30 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

Oh, they're a-head of us alright:

http://zen-haven.com/japanese-workers-face-smile-scanner/

Now that's what I call [mup ]algo-pets.

No humans need apply.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They're autistic-like personalities. They have no concept of reality as well-adjusted, relatively normal people do. They live in insulated cubes where the only reality they know of consists of constructing mental masturbation models, putting those models into a vacuum that's had all potential hazards removed, envisioning that model operate flawlessly in that pristine environment with perfectly rigged variables at play, and then ignoring the real world consequences of what is actually happening (and has happened in the past) when such models were forced, like square pegs, onto a round world.

They both demonstrate many aspects of psychopathy, sociopathy, or dyssocial personality disorder according to the DSM-IV, as well.

I believe Einstein had something to say about reality & insanity.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:41 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

Here's what I think about Japanese and Chinese fucking exports;

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 1 of 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4xPUZRdC0

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 2 of 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyE1GoPtLyI

best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fuckin hits) - 3 of 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd0m_bN2qdY

"I will steal the majority of peoples money, wealth, and ability to prosper by owning the money supply and making the monetary rules myself." - Dr. Evil

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Bass is beating the drums of failure pretty hard and looks to be right again. Cue Middle East conflagration so the MIC can take over.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Things are going from worst to worsterer in Japan."

That bad?!!

Thank heavens I'm long 'ererer'

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

They'll still buy U.S. government bonds though, right?  They are the 2nd largest foreign holder...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 02:32 | Link to Comment Nage42
Nage42's picture

It will never get "er" in Japan though... they can't fscking _say_ ['ur'].

 

Worsterer in Janglish:

 

Wa-ru-suta-ru-ru (sounds like a nursery song!)

OR

Wa-ru-suta-a-a (Sounds like someone shouting Walther~~! falling off a cliff).

 

So that's why things can't get worsterer.  :D

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

All those Nintendo Wii U's will save them.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:04 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

We're doing our part buying Japanese MBS brand bearings for Peru.

Of course, we buy more from Korea...

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Here's a good idea I just thought of ....maybe Japan can try it -

 

make a neat drawing of a hundred dollar bill on a piece of paper

make many, many copies of your neat drawing    (print out of thin air)

lend your neat drawings out to all your friends at zero % interest    (Federal Reserve )

your friends can re-lend your neat drawings out to other people but charge them interest   ( Bankers).

the other people can buy more stuff and then borrow  even more of your neat drawings.

should work til it doesn't.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

+1, neat drawings FTW!

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

And then we'll just think of something else that will tide us over until the next plan is needed.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Some guy in NYC beat you to it, years ago. He would draw incredible facsimiles of $100 bills (note: one side only), and then offer them to people as payment for goods and services. Some people accepted them; some didn't. Some held on to them; others traded them to their friends for other goods and services.

US Treasury not amused. Dude was charged with counterfeiting.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Lets ass fuck the ES higher anyway!!

Signed,
Benny

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The Sun is guaranteed to set on the Japanese Empire.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment pleseus
pleseus's picture

Kyle Bass is on to something.  Japan looks like it is going to be the next crisis in a year or so.  Their debt is crazy and any interest rate rise will kill them.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Is it possible that as all attention is fixed on the debt situation in Europe that the REAL collapse begins in the most obvious place possible- Japan?  200% debt/GDP in the 3rd largest economy in the world (which was only a few months back the 2nd largest economy in the world).

I know we've all been lulled to sleep by how incredibly long this fiasco has gone on in Japan, but none of the facts have changed despite the time elapsed.

Could it be that obvious?  Are we all going to be doing the "V8 smack to the forehead" when it turns out to be Japan that pops first?  It's just so damned..... forgotten about.  Nobody's looking at it.  All eyes are elsewhere.  Which is usually how everyone gets blind-sided.

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Japan pissed of the Chinese by taking full control of that island. The Chinese were burning Japanese cars right on the streets of Chinese cities and attacking Japanese owned stores. The average Chinese has ceased to buy Japanese goods whenever they can.

Japanese exports are thus hurting. Plus Europe is in recession and austerity, bad for exports to Europe!

I wonder when the dam breaks and Japan really takes a fall. The earthquake and nuclear plant accident could not have helped.

In the USA, we are now figuring up the costs of "Sandy" probably 55 billion minimum. Mother nature is fucking us up! Not to mention this summer's drought in the US is MORE costly than "Sandy".

What will next year bring?

Anyone notice that the ring of fire in the Pacific has been seeing earthquakes multiply, as one section gives way to stress the next section. Tokyo is said to be right on the next section to go. That would take Japan down for another decade to deal with. And if a mega thrust earthquake, which is way overdue, hits off the US Pacific Northwest, we could look at 200 billion in damages minimum.

Mother nature and the laws of physics bat last, they have the last say. We are along for the ride, New York got a mild taste of what can happen.

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:04 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Ben Davis sized up Japan on King World News a few nights ago: Domonsterative non-negatice chance of hyperinflation.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This is bullish. No, really - it is. Want proof?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NKY:IND

Up 1% tonight, bitchez!

If every nation would get downgraded, one at a time, everyday, then the S&P would be at 3,000 by this time next year.

If Japan's exports would fall this much each month, then the Nikkei would be back over 20,000 by this time next year.

I don't know why TPTB haven't caught on to this trick, if this pointless guy has.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

samsung or sony tv? samsung....................

hyundai or honda vehicle? hyundai..............

 

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

I am wondering ... would those Korean products be as reliable as Japanese ones over the long term?

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Japan is screwing the pooch, Middle East is firing rockets again, European Union can't decide on Greece. Trading over the next 12-28 hours is going to be interesting.

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Yeah, no kidding.  Still waiting on the Greece announcement from yesterday.  Someone has to take a giant haircut.  No one wants to.  LaGarde is making them do it.  They're not digging it.

When the news finally comes out, I think it is going to be a Duezy!

Buckle up, YC!

____________

No decision.  Continue Monday.

Unbelievable!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I bone headed the Euro news Orly. Traded right after the release, and got hit with that head fake. It was only 30 or so pips on the aud/usd leg though. I'll hold on to it for a while, before I decide whether to cut it.

 Stupid of me. I know better not to jump in right after news releases. A lot of e/u traders got their faces ripped off! That thing plunged 90 pips... Way overdone on light volume.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Hasn't overbought or oversold on light volume become teh standard since March 2009?

Tue, 11/20/2012 - 23:35 | Link to Comment TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Toyota or Hyundai...Toyota

Lexus or Kia...Lexus

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:37 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Consumer or Human.  Human

Person or Buyer of Shit To Line Pockets.  Person.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Japan auto exports to China fall 80%.

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20121121D21EE620.htm

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:27 | Link to Comment tok1
tok1's picture

who is the IMF representing (ie is it not Japan/US)   seems iys in their interest to hold up Greece / EU issues to keep funds flowing into JGB/Treasuires  and Germany likes the strong bunds as well and weak Euro.. so Greece will be used until they leave on their own and dont pay anyo of them...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 08:16 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Japan woulod be dead by now if it was not for the homogeneous population.....that will just take orders.....If they told the old folks to commit sucide to save the country...they would....but their template is broken...and they  have very good competition now...I think they are done...need to reboot...

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