The Myth Is Over: Europe Fails To Agree On Greece

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Given our earlier comments, it is hardly surprising but the Eurogroup meeting just ended and there is no agreement; headlines via Bloomberg:

  • *FRIEDEN SAYS NO DECISIONS REACHED TODAY ON GREECE BY EUROGROUP
  • *FRIEDEN SAYS EURO FINANCE CHIEFS TO CONTINUE TALKS ON MONDAY
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EUROGROUP UNABLE TO REACH CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT
  • *LAGARDE SAYS MORE WORK NEEDED FOR GREEK SOLUTION
  •  

EURUSD is tumbling (as are S&P 500 futures in their oh-so-correlated manner)

Of course, Juncker has his own spin:

  • *JUNCKER IDENTIFIED 'CREDIBLE' IDEAS TO BRING DOWN GREEK DEBT
  • *JUNCKER SAYS GREECE HAS MET PRIOR ACTIONS SATISFACTORILY
  • *JUNCKER SAYS GREECE HAS MADE 'CONSIDERABLE EFFORTS'
  • *JUNCKER SAYS NO MAJOR POLITICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN GREECE TALKS

 

EURUSD false-started on news that they HAD an agreement - then plunged as reality hit

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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:37 | 3001164 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

This cradle of democracy mantra is always funny. Yeah, it can be called that. But the Greek style direct democracy was a horrible, horrible system. Tyrant after tyrant after tyrant rose to power and was overthrown. A vicious cycle of bullshit when the d00dz of tha h00d gathered to the square to decide whether they should spend money on more buildings or slaves.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:06 | 3001093 chump666
chump666's picture

USD bids were in before this, save haven trades prior to this was HKD and DXY. Oil bid,  futures done. 

Tasty.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:10 | 3001106 Orly
Orly's picture

Where do you see EURUSD landing, Chump?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:15 | 3001127 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Parity, bitchez. I said within a year as of March, so time is running short! C'mon, Draghi! Fire up those plasma printers!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:01 | 3001211 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Truth i see the euro completely broken before we get parity. Northern euro creates the Neuro which is around 1.75 to the dollar and southern europe creates the shart (southern hemisphere awesome recreational tourism).

No way the awesome bernak just stands around and accepts parity. IMO

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:58 | 3001227 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The shart. I like that. Or neuro and seuro.

 

I think that they're readying The Hail Mary; give the USD a big boost so that more Americans & Chinese (since the CN¥ is still pegged for all practical purposes) can have more purchasing power to buy reams more European shit, take vacations there, etc..

Given that the EU is imploding due to far more complex political AND economic infighting amongst different nations, and headed for a thermonuclear meltdown, the converse is just not feasible.

This, I think, has some logic to it, so there's probably a zero % chance of it actually happening.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 03:48 | 3001324 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

far too much logic, and so I think you can really forget about parity. and you are right aobut the complex political and economic infighting, but IMHO you are forgetting how scared the european political elite is - compared with the US one

EU imploding? I see them more and more huddling together. watch the BriXit discussion coming soon

nope, my expectations are still with the mercantilist bunch getting their shit together and the financialist bunch finding out how much unicorns really shit

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:38 | 3001370 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If the Brits left the EU, the EU would impose sanctions so draconian that the Brits would come back on their knees begging to join the Euro. The sanctions would: (1) impose a total trade embargo (2) Declare the UK to be in rebellion against lawful authority, and thus all its assets and those of its corporations subject to immediate seizure (3) declare all citizens of the UK to be criminals that must be imprisoned for life when caught on EU territory (4) Use all imprisoned brits as forced labor.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 06:50 | 3001399 Acet
Acet's picture

Nah, they would just extended to the UK the same terms of access to the EU Market as they do for North Korea and yeah, that would apply to Financial Services too.

Since 70% of British exports are to the EU, the British Economy would stop it's current money-printer-sustained stall and just nosedive.

(The Brits need to diversify away from Financial Services and away from the EU as an export market, but because decades of strong pound courtesy of Financial Services killed most of the export Industry in the UK, they don't really have anything that foreigners want. Without political will for change - and far too many political campaign contributions come from the City - the place is condemned to, at best, several decades of stagnation)

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:35 | 3001415 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

andrewp111, read acet's reply carefully. I'm sorry to say I've been reading a lot of your comments on things like the EU and the EZ that left me at loss how to correct them. you seem to be either quite ignorant on some of the major mechanics or you are just shilling/trolling and I'm not sure what it is

your late "civil war" comments for example forget that every EU country has it's own military - it's not a "civil" war in this case, and you still haven't brought up your "casus belli"

your "sanctions against the UK" comments are also a bit on the iffy side - the main argument between continentals and the UK is not trade, it's banking - particularly the rehypothecating business. have a look who are the major trading partners of the UK before you start this kind of reasoning

the UK joining the EUR? and who would even think about allowing them? no, thanks! definitely not worth the trouble

your (2) "UK to be in rebellion against lawful authority" is also a bit on the bizzarro dimension side. and (3) and (4) sound so delirious I'd be happy to read how you think this could be even enforced - we continentals don't want to invest resources in additional prison space, thank you very much

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:46 | 3001444 Acet
Acet's picture

The EU would do nothing at all to try and keep the UK in.

Most people in the vast majority of the EU nations think that in the EU the Brits are just serial obstructionists, American proxies and not good-faith members of the EU. In most EU countries, loosing the UK is not seen as a bad thing, quite the contrary. This is not a recent thing: for decades the Brits have had a bad rep when it comes to the EU and have been seen as utterly greedy, selfish, shifty and hypocrit. The results is that the likes of the French and German have gathered a lot of power and respect in the EU, while the Brits have wasted any they had.

Now that I live in the UK (but not for much longer), it's painfully obvious to me that the Brits have a notion of their own self importance that is far above and beyond their actual relevance: modern Britain is not one of the great nations of the World, especially after the Financial crisis has exposed the truth about the "strength" of their economy and their financial industry.

All those "dreams" the Murdoch-dominated British press keeps pushing about how an EU exit would be and how the UK can go at it alone with the whole underlying background theme that the other EU nations would "miss us" are just spectacular pieces of pompous, ignorant self-deceit.

(PS: If you don't believe me, talk to any Brit that has been an imigrant in any other EU country)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:32 | 3001365 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

The Bernank will buy EU bonds if it ever approaches parity.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:30 | 3001153 chump666
chump666's picture

Well hedge funds are making a killing on this now, they were hedging on DXY and HKD before the news, so...

Orly, remember the 'Marketwtach' Black Sunday-it's-gonna-happen-soon articles a few weeks back?  Well, timing may be out out, but the EUR and S&P notoriously pingpongs each other, plus if we see a surge in DXY spots and USTs, damn even oil could be a safe haven.  Nov crash could be imminent.

EUR breaks 1.20 psycho level, yeah it could capitulate to 1.17, 1.10 range maybe...sans Mario.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:39 | 3001166 Orly
Orly's picture

That psych-level is 750-pips from here!  Then to 1.10.  Wow.

Dude, I'd be rich!  (Or at least be making Chump kinda money- for a little while, anyway.)

Thanks.

:D

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:45 | 3001183 chump666
chump666's picture

lol, yeah well Chump money is good money!  At least it buys more Tequila, Scotch and Gin. 

Crash would be tasty though...

Mario burnt hedge funds before, this time he may let it sink and then blame the Germans. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 02:12 | 3001285 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You bears are crazy. 

What happens after this crash?  The psuedo science of economics is put to bed?

lolz

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 03:52 | 3001325 Ajas
Ajas's picture

If you want to know where EURUSD lands, answer the following question:

What number is low enough to re-kickstart a continental export economy to a globally slowing market, when all global participants are equally attempting the same maneuvre, and yet which is HIGH enough to not augur imminent redenomination and EU breakup?

I don't know the exact answer, but I think mathematically it involves the square root of -1.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:30 | 3001363 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Don't laugh. By issuing Euros in units of i in addition to current denominations, they can add a whole new dimension to their currency. Interest rates could be set at multiples of i, or even complex quantities. It would confuse the public, since they wouldn't know if their real bank balance is going up or down until they thought about it too much.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:07 | 3001100 HD
HD's picture

Well, if Europe learned anything from the Fed's QE infinity failure - it will continue to use cheap talk over expensive action until the wheels come completely off.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:11 | 3001113 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

There is a point when the:

01110000 01110011 01111001 01100011 01101000 01100101 01100100 01100101 01101100 01101001 01100011 00100000 01100110 01100001 01101110 01110100 01100001 01110011 01111001

Cease to matter.

If you're in NY (perhaps one of the lucky 70 GS anointed, whose names, addresses and online presence is now encoded permanently into every Mafia, Government and hacker's books, we're happy that GS did a prune before the announcement but that's what the way back machine is for) take a cab down to Long Beach. The illusion that "money matters" can break down. Fast.

 

(Oh, and... of course there's no agreement. Put your toe in the water before getting in, and all)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 02:04 | 3001279 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

01001110 01101001 01100011 01100101 00100000 01110011 01110101 01110000 01100101 01110010 01100110 01101100 01110101 01101111 01110101 01110011 00100000 01110101 01110011 01100101 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01100010 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110010 01111001 00100001

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:11 | 3001115 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Who needs a real economy? All that matters is keeping up appearances. 

 

Spoon boy: Do not try and improve the economy. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. 
Neo: What truth? 
Spoon boy: There is no economy. 
Neo: There is no economy? 
Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the economy that improves, it is only the banks. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:38 | 3001257 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Miller: A lot o' people don't realize what's really going on. They view life as a bunch o' unconnected incidents 'n things. They don't realize that there's this, like, lattice o' coincidence that lays on top o' everything. Give you an example; show you what I mean: suppose you're thinkin' about a plate o' shrimp. Suddenly someone'll say, like, plate, or shrimp, or plate o' shrimp out of the blue, no explanation. No point in lookin' for one, either. It's all part of a cosmic unconciousness.
Otto: You eat a lot of acid, Miller, back in the hippie days?
Miller: I'll give you another instance: you know how everybody's into weirdness right now?...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:12 | 3001117 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Need moar confidence. Oh wait, there's gold, what a novel idea...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 00:47 | 3001186 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

I'd be so happy with a morning futures -500 point limit down.

But the odds of that happening are nill. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:09 | 3001219 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Monday.  Must kick can further.  Deal reached.  Smiles, back slapping all around.  Good for another 3 months before it starts all over again.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:45 | 3001441 youngman
youngman's picture

I read that into the comments too..this was not about making a decision...this was about making another meeting..with all the food and pompus regala...the royality show for the public...suits and ties...liomos...red carpets...and speeches in front of the mikes.....TV cameras and lights a blaring....that is what this is about...not decisions...expecially tough decisions...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:09 | 3001220 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Default!  Default!  Default!

Kill the Euro!  Kill the Euro now!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:25 | 3001239 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

Who run Bartertown?

 

...I mean are we "there" yet?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:26 | 3001240 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Better give young Kevin Henry a wake-up call and get him to start pumping those futures back up...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 01:44 | 3001265 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

With Greece and the rest of us doomed to Rothschild zionist controlled slavery under the Euro, failure to agree on Greece is actually a positive

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 03:38 | 3001320 walküre
walküre's picture

Frau Merkel, we need a rumor schnell bitte!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 06:53 | 3001403 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Merkel - I blockiert, bis nach den US-Wahlen, wie angewiesen.

I stalled until after the US elections as instructed.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 04:26 | 3001338 Euro Monster
Euro Monster's picture

Hey EUROGROUP! I got a message from Mr. Panos: "Fuck You, malaka!!!"

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 04:42 | 3001345 wEiRdO
wEiRdO's picture

Europe must stop using Greece as a scapegoat for their inefficiency and inadequacy to solve with a   definitive and insightful manner, the various manifestations of the crisis in the Eurozone.

They are draging their feet for the last three years...

I think that the masks are off, and everybody now knows who represents what and whom...

AntiEuropean sentiment in Greece will escalate after this farse!


Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:20 | 3001358 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If Greece tries to secede, the Eurocrats will send a police force to occupy Athens, and the EU civil war begins.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:44 | 3001440 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"If Greece tries to secede, the Eurocrats will send a police force to occupy Athens, and the EU civil war begins."

If Greece tries to secede, there'd be a collective sigh in Germany that they can now settle for a loss on their previous bailout payments rather than have Greece continue the giant suck in perpetuity.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:33 | 3001361 honestann
honestann's picture

Greece:  DEFAULT, DEFAULT, DEFAULT.
Leave the euro and eurozone.
Declare your independence.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:32 | 3001366 Lefteris
Lefteris's picture

 

Notice in this video, the sign in front of the prime minister does not say "Greece".

It says "Troika-Greece"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3DpyZad6VMk

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 05:52 | 3001377 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

God, the French are terrible at this game, their proxy LaGarde plays bad poker.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 06:25 | 3001383 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Juncker's bluff is getting junked and Lagarde's Gucci bag is empty. 

Troika sounds like Mark Anthony vs Augustus without poor old Lepidus now told to go retire in Lazio. 

Greece without fleece is now an irksome pebble. Maybe the Casino now moves to Spain and the ante goes up bigtime! 

while we discuss Greece, HERE IS WHERE THE EURO MACHINE IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING AT THE CORE OF THE BANKSTA SYSTEM : Dexia Bank liquidation being envisaged...hot potato!

Dexia: une dissolution "aurait des conséquences systémiques très graves"

 A bank that is now totally fubared whose inevitable liquidation has associated with it : 368.5 billion euros of debt, PLUS 605 billion of derivative contracts. This is JUST ONE LOUSY BANK!

Not only would the demise of Dexia affect the Banks by ripple effect but it would also effect sovereign bond debts as Dexia woud have to sell its 20 billion sovereign bonds by dumping on the market post haste. Good luck with that.

French and Belgian sovereign guarantees to Dexia's clients amount to 73.4 billion of its current debt...Dexia is systemic and dangerous. Draghi will he play the fireman once again? 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:08 | 3001412 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

ES positive.

I rest my fucking case.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 07:42 | 3001438 Incubus
Incubus's picture

The music was playing long enough for the smart people to gtfo the door.  The rest of the idiots kept playing musical chairs. Music's stopped.

Not enough seats.

 

The bloodbath will start soon.  Ready to get knocked back a few centuries?  Alright, then.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 08:07 | 3001470 snowlywhite
snowlywhite's picture

dude, give up... you look at that chart as it'd be an ufo... You're clueless, try something else...

 

1.282 - blow stops(duh! - how can you post something as stupid as "false started on the news"?), 1.276(blow yesterday stops), 1.273x(blow stops below H1 200 ma), reverse. It's going up! It does that for 1 week +.

 

and gimme a break with having "no reason". Fixing Europe will take at least 1 generation and everyone and their dog knows that. But it's eur/usd; hint - usd. That is - 16trl debt, 8% anual deficit.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:51 | 3001647 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

2013 will be the year when finally the shit hits the fan.

 

You still have a few weeks to convert your fiat into gold...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:04 | 3001682 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

Someone somewhere FOOLED YA!

 

Euro back to 1.282

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:31 | 3001771 PGR88
PGR88's picture

"The Myth is Over" - really?   Greece has been on the verge of collapse for 4 years.   They are still in the Euro.   I'm beginning to believe nothing is going to happen.   The ECB and Brussels will ride this out.

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