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Biggest UMich Miss In 4 Years Follows Biggest UMich Beat In 5 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you aren't thoroughly confused, confounded and outright disgusted by the newsflow supposed to represent the US economy, you aren't paying attention. Because two weeks after the preliminary UMich print was supposed to come at 82.2, instead soaring to 84.9, or the biggest beat of expectations in 5 years, we get the final UMich number, which missed expectations of a 84.5 read and plunged to 82.7, the biggest miss of expectations in 4 years. Of course, this makes sense: two weeks ago we had the euphoria associated with a new old president, and hope that 4 more years may fix this country. Two weeks, and the biggest market drop in one year later, enthusiasm has been doused just a tad. And adding insult to injury, 1 Year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.1% - just as the spectre of declining asset prices has reared its ugly head, yet this is well below the 2.8% expected for 5 year inflation -  as a reminder, in 5 years the Fed's balance sheet will be between $6 and 10 trillion. Boy is everyone in for a surprise...

But the bottom line: the long-standing tradition of "confuse everyone with BS" continues, as investors desperate for some stability either to the up or downside, are unable to get a bearing for the 4th year in a row.

Two weeks ago:

And today:

 

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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:16 | 3001913 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

And then reality set in.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:18 | 3001922 prains
prains's picture

RELEASE THE KRAKEN !

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:27 | 3001959 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the bitch has been on a tear far too long. let her OD on cntrl+p already! save us all from her misery...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:44 | 3002004 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Print some more Ben and give it to UM, that bitch will hit 86.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:09 | 3002593 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"as a reminder, in 5 years the Fed's balance sheet will be between $6 and 10 trillion."

Lend me ten thousand, I'll pay it back.

Lend me ten million, it's really my neck on the line.

Lend me ten billion, the IMF or some other derivative of the BIS had better be on hand.

Lend me ten trillion, and you're... the bag holder.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:44 | 3002005 Looney
Looney's picture

Fiscal Cliff for President!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:03 | 3003222 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Maybe all this mess is caused by global warming.  If it were only cooler people would buy more stuff. 

 

Maybe there should be a global tax on production and that will cause temps to go down - but people will have less money - they'll borrow more to buy more.  What will we do with the global tax 'revenue'? - oh, spend it on improving the roads to the shopping areas so people will buy more stuff - won't that create more traffic and global warming?  Yes, so will tax the roads with tolls.  But the roads were paved with tax dollars - yes, but tolls will help keep the roads in better condition.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:30 | 3001968 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

genius

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:19 | 3001925 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

Save the Fiscal Cliff!!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:43 | 3001987 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Tiny Tim only yesterday mused we should remove the fiscal cliff altogether. He wants it flattened and replaced with a Santa Pod style drag strip into infinity where politicos and bwankers can burn up cash to their hearts content and without boundaries

Tim has truly entered a LaLa Land, fiscal reality has passed the poor sod by. A career crone who prepares the US Budget but has no concept of what the word "budget" actually means ...and he's 'head' of the US Treasury!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:48 | 3002021 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

zero, now you know why timmah was picked..to any rational investors his remarks about the debt ceiling would have caused panic- but to our medicated bunch just a shrug.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:07 | 3002057 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

We should establish which bunch of 'Govt experts' (cough, cough, cough) hired someone to do the US Govt budget that doesn't like or understand the word "budget"

has Timmayaha lost his grip (on reality) while at US Treasury or did he never have a grip?

was it the same 'expert panel' that appointed MF Global as a Fed/US Govt Primary Dealer??

seems Govt testing of its partners is as sloppy and sub-standard as every other part of Govt

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:25 | 3001939 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

More than expected, rally on, SP 1400 today

 

fixed

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:23 | 3001940 Vooter
Vooter's picture

"If you aren't thoroughly confused, confounded and outright disgusted by the newsflow supposed to represent the US economy, you aren't paying attention."

You're right--I'm not paying attention...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:24 | 3001947 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Willing Suspension of Disbelief

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:50 | 3002029 DOT
DOT's picture

All we get are more commercials. My popcorn is half gone; when is the Feature Presentation going to start?!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:59 | 3002541 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Munch..  And when the popcorn is finished, we realize that the commercials are the feature presentation, and they will never end, until the projectors are smashed.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 16:03 | 3003056 archon
archon's picture

Seriously... who cares what anyone at UMich thinks?  They're nothing more than a bunch of psychopathic neo-Keynesians.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:25 | 3001953 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

whoever these assholes are that come up with these bogus ass numbers for this bogus ass survey should be lined up and marched down a line where on both sides there are ZH readers who then punch them in the face all they way down to the end....

Sincerely,

Sick of the fucking bullshit.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:28 | 3001962 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i am pretty sure if you stick a cat in a hole and poison it you don't need to check for sure to make sure it's dead

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:28 | 3001963 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

EENIE-MEANIE-MINEY-MO......let's pick.......82.7! OK. Print it.

 

100% put-on.....100%

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:30 | 3001970 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The bi-polarity is becoming more bi-polar.

<Captain....she's gonna blow!>

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:31 | 3001971 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

if economic .gov numbers made sense..well the outcome would be less than desirable for the 1%..living lies in the land of blind is bad, but in the land of fat and stupid is no way to go thru life. the best I can hope for is some nut rag head cia backed muffie goes off the rez and nukes DC or Wall st. with a bomb provided by .gov by an ex fast and furious ATF agent who had mistakenly sent a working nuke .. peace.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:34 | 3001978 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

shocking

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:37 | 3001984 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

I never trust the UM numbers, IBDs numbers are always more accurate.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:13 | 3002133 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

NEVER TRUST MICHIGAN

 

G-O      B-U-C-K-S  !  !

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:09 | 3002861 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Have you kicked a Wolverine yet today?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 18:45 | 3003460 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Up yours you worthless nut. What happens when we trust Ohio? Four more years of Obama!?!?!? GO BLUE!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:38 | 3001989 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

France downgrade -- rally

No Greek deal -- rally 

U Mich miss -- rally

Consumer confidence miss -- rally

Tel Aviv bus explosion -- rally

See a pattern here?  

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:43 | 3002002 gjp
gjp's picture

yeah all great reasons to sell gold and buy more AMZN and CRM.  Virtual products with virtual earnings.  The future is virtual, baby ... not sure how we'll all function on virtual energy.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:46 | 3002014 Lendo
Lendo's picture

LOL, well put man.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:47 | 3002017 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

TPTB don't want a sell-off right before Black Friday.  Got to keep the masses motivated to buy more and more junk.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:15 | 3002143 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i see the pattern, it's impossible to deny. but this is the most boring crack up boom ever.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 16:03 | 3003058 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

I do! Like when the BLIND lead the BLIND they all fall into the ditch! Can you see?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:43 | 3001996 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

  "as investors desperate for some stability either to the up or downside,are unable to get a bearing for the 4th year in a row"

 

Isn't that the idea when you want to destroy a system? Make the system so unstable that people lose what little trust and confidence they have left in it. Make it so that it is difficult to profit and the people just walk away?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:42 | 3001997 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

My survey says there's two types of people out there:

 

People greatly pessimistic about the future.

People who don't have a fucking clue what's going on.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:43 | 3002001 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Boy, those 5-10 people they survey at UMich sure are moody...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 16:08 | 3003074 akak
akak's picture

It is properly pronounced "U of M", NOT "U-mish".

NOBODY associated with the University of Michigan would ever say "U-Mich".  That's just wrong!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:52 | 3002038 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

isn't that just peachy news?

lets all put our helmets on and go shopping friday morning.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:04 | 3002090 fuu
fuu's picture

MOAR SHOPPINGS!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:55 | 3002525 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Is there a live ticker anywhere for this year's seasonal shopping death toll?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:09 | 3002113 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Helmets aren't enough these days.

Better use this instead: http://hacknmod.com/video/project-grizzly-fighting-bears-with-diy-body-a...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:55 | 3002056 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

You have to understand that this is a DELIBERATE and PLANNED attack by the elite-illuminati.It is a takeover. It is very easy to see if you are awake. It is very hard to see if you are not awake.you are being enslaved. The system was propped up with fraudulent numbers till the election. The election is over and the end game has begun. The petro-dollar is near death. You need to exit the system ASAP and buy GOLD and SILVER NOW. They are already targeting retirement plans. They will lock you into lending the criminal government your money and never getting your purchasing power back. Raise your level of awareness and educate yourself and turn the TV off. It will do you a world of good.You then will understand the this is the ultimate battle between good and evil.Yes I mean GOD and the devil. You need to pick a side and act accordingly. God Bless.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:10 | 3002118 prains
prains's picture

I think Dick is now a panda in a north korean zoo, that's what i heard anyway, you can go back to the game folks alls good,nothing to see here

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:19 | 3002161 lance_manion
lance_manion's picture

I thought the biggest UMich beat was done courtesy of Alabama.  

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:52 | 3002809 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

....and very fond memories of Apalachian State :)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:28 | 3002194 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Obama got re-elected so we can now go back to our regularly scheduled collapse.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:29 | 3002198 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Maybe we are entering chaos. I remember being 16 and driving a 1948 full dresser Harley 1200cc with a foot clutch and suicide shift. I was going too fast around a turn on a tar and gravel road. I had to over-steer to the left to stay on the road. The momentum threw the bike to the right and I pulled the steering back to compensate. For a few seconds I brought it in line and then all of a sudden inertia slammed the bike onto the road. I and the bike went spinning and sparking round and round down the road as the headlights and windsheild and various parts of the bike flew off in all directions. The roll bar saved me. Maybe the FED has some type of spoiler roll bar on the economy.

In fluid dynamics it works a little differently more like the economy. A few blips and then poof.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:37 | 3002226 realtick
Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:11 | 3002350 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The FED's balance sheet swelling to $10 Trillion???  They must have an AWESOME credit rating!!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:18 | 3002380 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

IMHO, there is a really great point in the narrative of this post.  The notion of inflation in staple items coupled with declining asset prices is counterintuitive to folks (who are in for a catastrophic surprise as this seeming paradox continues).  But it makes perfect sense: as the volume of Bernanks in circulation drives up commodities and things needed, folks have less and less ability to service the debt on durable goods - and even less chance to buy anything new like a car or a house.  This will continue as people become increasingly squeezed by ever-more-rapidly increasing prices for staple items.

So you can (and likely will) have both intensive inflation and a crushing debt deflationary spiral.  If foreign bondholders throw in the towel, then you get a temporary spell of hyperinflation, but it is not necessary for that to occur for the whole country to disintegrate into violent chaos and underground barter.  Whoever is left standing and has preserved purchasing power (with gold, silver, Pb, etc.) will have a nice and large-scale rummage sale to pick from.

My rant is done.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:40 | 3002457 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so totaly worthless polls follow totaly worthless fake data....got it.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:51 | 3002797 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Everyone knows U of MI is not to be trusted.  Ever.

--Go MSU Spartans!

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