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Initial Claims Over 400K For Second Week In A Row, Hurricane's Fault Again

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday's home sales data, which came far better than expected, apparently had nothing to do with Hurricane Sandy (had it been a disappointment the narrative would have been far different). What Hurricane Sandy did have an impact on for the second week in a row, is today's Initial Unemployment Claims, supposedly, which for the second week in a row printed well above 400K, and just as expected, at 410K, "down" from last week's upward (naturally) revised 451K (previously 439K). NSA claims declined from 478.5K to 397.7K, while Continuing Claims were just below expectations at 3,337K on a consensus print of 3,345K, and down from an upward revised 3,367K. Notable is that the dropping trend in those on extended claims, which recently dropped to a multi year low of around 2 million, had reverse, and 60.8K applied for EUCs.

Paradoxically, looking at last week's very disappointing jobs data, something sadly does not foot. According to the DOL, the states impacted by Sandy were NY at +43,956, NJ at +31,094, PA at +7,037, and CT at +1,808. This assumes all initial claims in these states were due to Sandy, because as everyone knows the second a hurricane comes along, everyone one is fired. So taking the NSA print of 478,543 for November 10, and subtracting the fully attributed Sandy "impact" 83,895, and one gets 394,648. Hardly the stuff those pushing for a "recovery" and saying to avoid the Sandy-related claims, would want to see.

 

 

Finally, and most confusingly, last week's third most laid off state, with +24,693 initial claims was... California.

Sandy's fault for sure. But at least Ohio had 5K less layoffs in the manufacturing industry in elections week...

 

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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:50 | 3001640 GetZeeGold
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Hope the Whitehouse carts out that blonde chick with the crazy eyes to explain to us how that's totally normal.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:08 | 3001694 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Marketwatch reports "Unemployment claims decline sharply to 410,000." It's the new idea. Even though it is well over 350k, we did better than last week!!! Let's see what the algos do with this...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:08 | 3002111 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Blame Hoover, it worked for FDR.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:59 | 3002298 mayhem_korner
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My neighbor's name is Sandy Bush.  She gets blamed for EVERYTHING.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:14 | 3005925 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Business Insider claims that Sandy would leave us "better off than before the storm." 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-21/lulled-lethargy

I think these guys drive to work in clown cars.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:10 | 3001702 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

She'll probably demonstrate how vaginal farts, wind, can destroy sentiment in this fucked up jobmarket.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 16:09 | 3003067 archon
archon's picture

Oh, you're talking about Baghdad Bob's twin sister - "White House Steph".

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:49 | 3001641 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Sandy, like Snookie from the Jersey Shore, is the the gift that keeps on giving.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:56 | 3001662 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

It is on Marketwatch. Their story "First-time claims for unemployment benefits decline sharply" fails to mention that this is up from last weeks Sandy-influenced figure, which should summarily be dismissed.

But of course, now that the figure has "improved", it is good enough to use as reference.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:39 | 3001790 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Higher unemployment creates an increase in the amount of women wanting to be dirty ho-bags?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 16:10 | 3003083 archon
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Finally, and most confusingly, last week's third most laid off state, with +24,693 initial claims was... California.

I thought Sandy hit the East coast?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:49 | 3001643 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

It's always something. The effects of Sandy will be the excuse for the next year

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:18 | 3001924 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

With this leadership group, it will always be something.  They really need to borrow Bushes hurricane machine and hit a republican state because Sandy is going to be a little problematic for incumbent pols in the NE.  They need a distraction say like a middle east war.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:51 | 3002036 Dick Gazinia
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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:49 | 3001644 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

now will you QE till the lights go out Ben BEN you f'n rat..OMG last weeks disaster revised even higher this should ramp the S&P 5%..nuts

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:49 | 3001645 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Da Blame Game....respekt!!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:51 | 3001648 SheepDog-One
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California hired 25 THOUSAND people suddenly last week...OK this is just getting too silly to even pay any serious attention to now. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:55 | 3001661 GetZeeGold
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They hired them to console the people already without jobs.....there is a method to Moonbeam Jerry's madness.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:57 | 3001667 Tyler Durden
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Fired

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:03 | 3001681 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

tylers has the world of finance ever been so controlled so corrupt so blasted evil ever? How can wealth be created? we all expect the inflation of monitizing the debt and excess liquidity, but it only goes to equity, no jobs=prosperity or so it seems for the 1%..corzine me this.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:07 | 3002332 mayhem_korner
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Umm...if you think the liquidity is only getting to stocks and not creating inflation, then you probably don't shop at grocery stores, retailers or anyplace else where prices can be observed.  Many food items are 20-40% higher than just 2 years ago...but the inflation is disguised by keeping the "price" the same and reducing the quantity.  One pound bags of coffee now contain 10-12 oz.  That's a 25-38% increase in prices.  And it's happening across the board.  Anything that needs to be grown, packaged, made, or shipped is much much more expensive now...

Stocks aren't really keeping up...and the dam hasn't even burst in terms of money velocity.  Be prepared for $6 loaves of bread within 15 months.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:58 | 3001669 digitlman
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Initial UNEMPLOYMENT claims.

 

They were FIRED.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:01 | 3001678 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

the fact that you are not paying any attention is starting to show

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:40 | 3001792 SokPOTUS
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Bad numbers are always shown with positive signs by .gov; good numbers with negative signs.

That's because there are so few good numbers to report.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:53 | 3001652 chrsjrcj
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Wait...according to Krugman, Sandy was supposed to boost employment. What happened to that theory? 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:13 | 3001707 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Sandy had to put up to get 5 gallons of fuel to get her genarator to work to recharge her iPhone and iPad.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:22 | 3001736 fuu
fuu's picture

SNAP!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:24 | 3001948 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Yes, there's supposed to be a surge of employment to make new windows, doors, siding, etc. and install all those items.  Should be a BOOM fooking banner year for those folks out there!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:53 | 3001653 kliguy38
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Steve Liesman will tell you that we need more stimulus/fiat.........I say you better have GOOOOLD

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:54 | 3001655 centerline
centerline's picture

Here in Florida after many hurricane's, job creation soared.  Contractors could not find enough people.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:01 | 3001677 fonzannoon
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Here is what I think is happening in NY. Sandy hit. House gets damaged. Homeowner has brother or friend who is contractor. Bro/friend comes in and fixes the basement for cash. Homeowner gets a check from FEMA for 4x the cost the bro/friend charged. Bro/friend gets a piece of the action.

Contractors made out. Day laborer's were hired and paid cash. Homeowner made out because they made money on the whole thing.

Not a dime in taxes was collected. Not a job was actually created on the books. Granted there are a lot of people who are going to find out they did not read page 160 something on their homeowners policy.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:33 | 3001774 centerline
centerline's picture

I just can't imagine the effect is so minimal.  I could be wrong though.

What really gets shitty is how slow the insurance companies move and in times of massive claims bring all sorts of shitty adjusters to go out and add up the damage.  They low ball everyone on purpose.

Hurricane Charley dropped 4 trees on my house and smashed the back half of my roof, water leaked inside and destroyed ceilings, etc.  Insurance company used some idiot from Tennessee to do the claim and he totaled the damage at $800.  ha ha.  It took 6 months and going to mediation (court was next) to get the insurance company simply fullfill thier contractual obligation.   

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:53 | 3001656 Watts_D_Matter
Watts_D_Matter's picture

So for four years it was Bush's fault....Now it's Sandy's fault.....This makes as much sense as hiring a blind man to build a house.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:55 | 3001658 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Good = Obama. Bad = Sandy

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:56 | 3001666 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Hmmmm

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:55 | 3001659 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Time for another MIRACLE ramping of the ES!!!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:58 | 3001668 GetZeeGold
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Yeah.....if ya got a miracle....now would be the time.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:00 | 3001673 cosmictrainwreck
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a miracle is typically unexpected & out of the ordinary. Sadly, as you often point out, the f-in' RAMP is now simply SOP....very mundane..... 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:17 | 3001717 Sudden Debt
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NASA has found a bacteria on Mars which consented to put up Mars as collateral against all Earth's debt.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:36 | 3001783 Yen Cross
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lol buzz, :-)

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 00:31 | 3003945 NeedtoSecede
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Mars will consent to this deal only if NASA continues its very important "mission" of outreach to the Muslim world. Fixed it for ya...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 09:56 | 3001664 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Shouldn't a natural disaster boost employment after the event...don't you need to construct more after the hurrican destroyed everything and thus transport shit from place A to place B...

Didn't a man made natural disaster (world war) boost employment...MASSIVELY

Am I the only one that feels like every government is trying to fuck me up the ass, and getting upset at me if I so slightly hint at refusing????

I am ufficially dumbfounded people...

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:03 | 3001674 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It's peculiar that these markets remain buoyant on relative news that in an absolute sense is absolute shit.

Countries are in line to collapse financially.

Unemployment is a major issue.

The success country of the future is the largest communist empire in the history of the planet.

Government debts are the highest they've ever been, but moronic spending continues.

Fiscal cliff is a term used so frequently, it's almost a brand - cup of fiscal cliff anyone?

Walmart workers are on strike when there's no union at Walmart for the busiest day of retail year - honestly you fucking unions, haven't you destroyed enough lives?

 

And then there's morning columns calling for another bull run.

 

Beam me up Scotty.  This planet really sucks.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:10 | 3001869 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The 1% who really run the world do fear massive civil unrest.  Therefore, they bombard the masses with bread and circuses and lie to them about how good things really are (rigging the market is one way of doing so).  It was true during the decline of the Roman Empire, and it is true today.

FUBAR, so sayeth SPQR...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:08 | 3001696 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No career employment = No Recovery

Housing "recovery" = Apartment buildings

U.S.S.A. = Ponzi

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:08 | 3001697 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Those 18500 workers at Hostess, could transfer to DC because I'm sure their talents can be used at the Fudge Factory that is doing a roaring trade.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:09 | 3001698 Everybodys All ...
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Hurricane Obamacare.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:35 | 3002436 De minimus
De minimus's picture

Hurricane Marxism in the newly created USSA. Hat tip to our media.

If you see 'em walking near a subway, try to trip them down the stairs.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:10 | 3001700 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That upward revision(from last week), was over 32K JOBS!  Why do we even have a BLS with revisions like that? That's almost 10% revision,WTF?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:20 | 3001730 Tekrunner
Tekrunner's picture

If I remember correctly, they mentionned last week that a significant upward revision was likely, as they couldn't collect all the data because of, err, you-know-who.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:27 | 3001755 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I hear you. Next week it will be the Wall Mart strike...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:14 | 3001711 OneTinSoldier66
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Damn. Apparently Sandy didn't produce enough "broken windows" to produce economic growth. We need moar broken windows!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:18 | 3001719 MFLTucson
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Sick of the lies yet?  Well, you just signed on for 4 more years of lies and deception.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:24 | 3001742 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I know the numbers are seasonly adjusted but this is the time of year when retail is at its highest employment levels.  Methinks January brings another million or so people exiting the workforce which will be attributed to seniors.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:27 | 3001753 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

This just blows...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:29 | 3001765 Super Duper
Super Duper's picture

Love you Zero Hedge but..

Housing starts only uses the first 2 weeks of the month.    The effects of the hurricane wont show up till next month..

Don't want you to look foolish or anything.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 10:54 | 3001844 lostcause
lostcause's picture

 When California is laying off 25k in the service industry at the busiest shopping time of the year, you know the economy is in trouble!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:06 | 3001876 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Sandy will be blamed for at least another 4 to 6 weeks, until a big winter snow hits.  Shift to blaming heavy December snow storms coming up.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:12 | 3001896 russwinter
russwinter's picture

The following is a partial list of the 100,000 layoffs and job losses that have been announced since November 6th… Add 18,000 from Hostess.

Abbott Labs 700
Activision 30
Adventist Health 48
Airlines SAS 6000
AMD 400
American Cotton Growers 110
ArcelorMittal 20
American Independence Museum 4
Ameridose 790
American Airlines 4400 + 800 leaving voluntarily
American Coal 54
Atlantic Lottery Corporation 16
Assc Milk Producers 130
Aveo Oncology 45
ATI 172
Bankia 5000
Bechtel Power Corp 277
Bigpoint Games 47
Boston Scientific 1200
Brake Parts LLC 75
Brattleboro Retreat 31
Bristol Myers 500
Career Education 900 + Closing 23 Campuses
Cigna 1300
Citigroup 100
Commerzbank 6000
Consol Energy in W.V. 145
Covidien 595
Crouse Hospital Syracuse NY 70
Cummins 150
CVPH 27
DEP in Tallahassee FL 15
DuPont, Co. 64
Eagle-Tribune, Andover 21
Emanuel Medical Cente 24
Energizer Holdings 1500
Ericsson 1550
Exide Tech, Laureldale 150
City of Findlay, OH 39
First Energy 400
Gameforge Berlin 20
Gamesa Energy 92
GenOn Energy Inc 33
Glen Falls Hospital 29
Groupon 80
GT Advanced Tech 165
Harris’ Broadcast 17
Hawker Beechcraft 400 + Facilities closing
Hill Rom 200
Hills Holdings 300
HMX Group 567
Hostess 627
Iberia Airlines 4500
ICM of Colwich 25
ING 2350
Judson University 21
Juniper Networks 500
Kaiser Permanente 84
Kinetic Concepts 427
Kratos Defense Security 125
Lackawanna County PA 11
Lightyear Network Solutions 12+
Lonza 500
Majestic Star Casino/hotel 80
Major Wind Company 3000
Martha Stewart Living 70
Medtronic 1000
Mills Manufacturing NC 68
Momentive, Inc. 150
Monitor Group 235
Montco Behavioral Health/Dev 58
NBC 500
Nebraska Medical Center 38
Neovia Logistics Services 52
New Energy 40
Ormet 200
Panasonic 10000
PayPal 320
Penn Refrigeration 40
Penske Logistics 50
Pepsi 4000
Philips Electronics 218
Pierce Mfg 325
Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne 100
Research in Motion 200
Rheem Manufacturing 50
Sentry Foods 70
Shaw’s Supermarket 700
Shawano foundry WI 90
Smith & Nephew 770
Smithfield Packing Co. 125
Solel Solar Systems 140
Southeastern Container 15
SpaceX 100
SRA Intl Inc 222
St. Jude Medical 300
Stryker 1170
Sulake 60
Sun Media 500
TE Connectivity 620
TECO Coal Corporation 90
Texas Instruments 1700
The Providence Journal Co 23
TMX Group Ltd. 100
Turbocare 220
Turkey Point Nuclear Plant 277
Oce North America, Inc. 135
Turbocare OCE 220
UBS 10000
US Cellular 980
UtahAmerican Energy Inc 102
Volvo Trucks Pulaski County 300
Wake Forest Baptist Medical 950
Welch Allyn 275
West Ridge Mine 102
Westinghouse 50
World Media Enterprises Inc 105
WPS Health Insurance 600
Wright Patterson AFB 115
Wyodak Coal Mine 11
Xerox 2500

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 11:23 | 3001941 Freewheelin Franklin
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How do you expect people to work when they live in a FEMA camp?????

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 12:07 | 3002105 Bansters-in-my-...
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Ya gotta watch out for them pesky HAARP  intensified storms,they can be nasty.

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